Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global oil market**, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical influences affecting oil production and pricing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts**: - Total oil demand is projected to average **104.4 million barrels per day (mbd)** in 2025, with a slight increase from **104.1 mbd** in 2024 [10][91]. - Total oil supply is expected to reach **105.7 mbd** in 2025, indicating a surplus of **1.2 mbd** in the market [10][91]. 2. **Brent and WTI Price Projections**: - Brent crude oil is forecasted to average **$80 per barrel** in 2024, with expectations of a decline to **$73** in 2025 and further to **$61** in 2026 [40][69]. - WTI prices are projected to follow a similar trend, with an exit price of **$64** by the end of 2025 [69]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: - The incoming Trump administration's policies are expected to focus on maintaining low energy prices, potentially impacting oil supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia [100][101]. - There is a consensus that the administration may prioritize domestic oil production increases over international supply constraints [100][101]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - US total oil liquids production is projected to increase by **750 kbd** in 2024, surpassing **20 mbd** [71]. - A further increase of **670 kbd** is expected in 2025, primarily driven by the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico projects [71][78]. 5. **Brazilian Oil Production**: - Brazilian crude and condensate production is anticipated to rebound in 2025, with new FPSO units expected to add **590 kbd** of capacity [78]. - The market has expressed skepticism regarding the projected growth, with consensus estimates being more conservative [78]. 6. **OPEC's Role**: - OPEC's production levels are expected to remain stable, with no significant unwinding of cuts anticipated as long as market balances indicate potential weakness [84][86]. - Recent OPEC meetings have shifted expectations towards tighter global oil balances, reducing the likelihood of a price collapse [84]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a notable divergence in opinions regarding oil price forecasts among analysts, with some projecting prices as low as **$60** and others as high as **$95** for 2025 [41]. - **Inventory Trends**: OECD oil inventories have seen a decline of approximately **17 million barrels** year-to-date, indicating a tighter market despite the projected supply surplus [70]. - **Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)**: NGL production is expected to contribute an additional **310 kbd** to overall liquids growth in 2025, highlighting its importance in the US oil landscape [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Life Insurance** sector in **North America** with a positive outlook for 2025 due to a favorable macro environment, including a steepening yield curve and an aging population [10][15][72]. Key Points 2025 Outlook - Expected **13% EPS growth** and **15% return on equity** for life insurers in 2025, supported by stable equity markets and mortality aligning with expectations [10][15]. - Capital return is projected to remain robust, with **6.1% buyback accretion**, an increase from **5.4% in 2024** [10][15]. Major Themes Influencing Life Insurance Stocks 1. **Steepening Yield Curve**: Anticipated rate cuts are expected to steepen the yield curve, positively impacting life insurance earnings [10][15][116]. 2. **Demographic Trends**: An aging population is expected to drive demand for life insurance products [10][15]. 3. **Variable Investment Income**: This remains a wildcard for earnings, with potential improvements expected from capital markets activity and private market valuations [20][126]. Group Insurance Performance - Group insurance is expected to perform strongly in 2025, particularly in the dental and disability segments, while group life may face headwinds due to normalizing mortality rates [10][72]. - **Unum** is anticipated to benefit significantly from stable group life and supportive disability segments [72]. Annuity Market Dynamics - Strong demand for annuity products is expected to continue, driven by an aging population and stable macro conditions [10][45]. - Annuity sales reached historical records in 2024, with a **23% YoY growth** compared to **21% in 2023** [139]. - Companies like **Equitable** and **Corebridge** are well-positioned to gain market share due to their strong capital positions and vertical integration [10][45]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for **Registered Index-Linked Annuities (RILA)** has intensified, with market share now concentrated among the top ten carriers [139]. - Companies with robust distribution networks and investment management capabilities are expected to perform better in the RILA space [10][45]. Variable Investment Income Challenges - Variable investment income has been underperforming due to muted realizations in private equity and lower valuations in real estate [142][147]. - While there are signs of improvement, a full recovery in variable investment income is not expected until 2026 [148]. Dental and Disability Insurance - The dental insurance market is expected to see a better underwriting environment due to annual re-pricing and reduced inflation pressure [144]. - Favorable performance in disability insurance is anticipated to continue, driven by stable pricing and claims experience [144]. Conclusion - The life insurance sector is poised for growth in 2025, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, demographic trends, and strong demand for annuity products. However, challenges remain in variable investment income and competitive pressures in the annuity market. Companies like **Unum**, **Equitable**, and **Corebridge** are expected to be key beneficiaries in this evolving landscape [10][72][139].

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 North America Specialist Sales 19 December 2024 J P M O R G A N shuinu9870 shuinu9870 MU (and the Asia View), Semis Outlook Call, CES & Taiwan/Korea Conf? 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Joshua Meyers +1 617 310 0767 joshua.meyers@jpmorgan.com • Did you miss Harlan Sur's 2025 Outlook: Semis & Semi Cap Equipment call yesterday morning? The replay is here. Contact me for the presentation. • Harlan, Samik & Team are hosting a bunch of events at CES Jan 6~8, with CRDO, D ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 19 December 2024 | 1:46PM JST shuinu9870 Semiconductor memory major Micron Technology (MU, covered by our US semiconductor/SPE analyst, Toshiya Hari) released 1Q8/25 (September-November) 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： results and held a conference call early morning on December 19 (Japan time). Below, we summarize the key points, centering on current business conditions and the capex outlook, and di ...

Internet 2025 Outlook **Industry Overview** * The Internet sector is expected to continue its strong performance in 2025, driven by secular trends such as AI, digital transformation, and the shift to online platforms. * AI is expected to dominate the investment narrative, shifting from infrastructure to agents and applications. * Mega-caps and large-caps are expected to continue leading the sector, with significant investment in AI and infrastructure. **Key Themes** 1. **AI Shift**: The focus of AI investment is shifting from infrastructure to agents and applications, including chatbots, vertical tools, AI-driven search, and ad creation. 2. **Heavy Capex**: Mega-caps are expected to continue investing heavily in AI and infrastructure, which will curb margins and FCF but drive long-term growth. 3. **Cloud Growth**: Cloud growth is expected to accelerate, with more monetization of GenAI in 2025. 4. **Online Ads**: Online ad growth is expected to remain solid, with a focus on new products, direct response, AI, and margin expansion. 5. **E-commerce**: E-commerce growth is expected to accelerate, led by Amazon and Walmart. 6. **Streaming Media**: Streaming media growth is expected to be more balanced between subscriptions and monetization, with a focus on ad-supported video. 7. **Rides/Food**: Rides and food delivery are expected to remain resilient, driven by cohort strength and improving efficiency. 8. **AV Rollout**: Autonomous vehicle (AV) rollout is expected to expand as rideshare networks prove utilization and demand. 9. **Online Travel**: Online travel growth is expected to normalize, shifting focus to disciplined execution. 10. **Regulatory Focus**: Regulatory scrutiny around mega-caps and antitrust is expected to persist. 11. **Trump 2.0**: The incoming administration's pro-business stance is expected to be beneficial for the Internet group. **Company-Specific Analysis** * **Amazon (AMZN)**: Amazon is well-positioned as the market leader in e-commerce and public cloud. The company is expected to achieve multi-year margin expansion and FCF ramp, driven by high-growing AWS and Advertising revenue streams. * **Alphabet (GOOG/L)**: Alphabet's fundamentals are solid, and the company is expected to remain a driver of and primary beneficiary of an increasingly digital economy and advances in Generative AI. The company is focused on innovation, with healthy runway across Search and YouTube ads as AI drives higher ROI and TV dollars shift online. * **Meta Platforms (META)**: Meta is well-positioned to become an enduring blue-chip company built for the long term. The company's massive reach and engagement continue to drive network effects, and its targeting abilities provide significant value to advertisers. Meta is also focused on the two big tech waves of AI and Metaverse. * **Spotify (SPOT)**: Spotify is the largest pure-play audio streaming service and is driving and benefiting from the ongoing secular shift from transaction-based to access-based streaming models. The company is growing its total MAUs at ~11% and is generating positive FCF. * **Pinterest (PINS)**: Pinterest is a visual discovery platform and productivity tool where 535M+ people around the world go to discover ideas that they can then bring from inspiration to reality. The company has a scaled user base with high commercial intent and operates in a large addressable market. * **Reddit (RDDT)**: Reddit is a global digital city comprising 100k+ subreddits for users to share information, learn, and engage around specific topics and interests. DAUq growth has accelerated in recent quarters and there is meaningful headroom for growth. * **Uber Technologies (UBER)**: Uber is the global leader in two secular growth industries, ride-sharing and food delivery, and is leveraging its massive scale and technological expertise to rapidly launch and scale new products. * **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: Booking Holdings is the best-positioned company in the online travel space. The company is expected to deliver solid revenue growth and continue returning capital to shareholders. * **Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)**: Expedia is expanding its international footprint through its portfolio of strong brands with significant scale, including Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. * **Airbnb (ABNB)**: Airbnb is a leading global marketplace for Alternative Accommodations (AA) and experiences, with its community of individual hosts and strong brand the key differentiators. * **WEBTOON (WBTN)**: WEBTOON is a leading global storytelling platform that pioneered a new form of digital content. Stories on WBTN are serialized into short, vertically scrolling web-comics or web-novels released on a weekly schedule. **Conclusion** The Internet sector is expected to remain a strong performer in 2025, driven by secular trends and significant investment in AI and infrastructure. Mega-caps and large-caps are expected to continue leading the sector, with significant opportunities for growth and innovation.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 First Read Press conference at 15:30 JST Market focus should be how strongly Governor Ueda will hint at the next rate hike in January at the press conference. We think he will NOT commit to raise the policy rate at this stage because unexpected developments after Mr. Trump's inauguration as US President on 20 January cannot be ruled out, but he may say that a rate hike is coming soon based on their current economy and inflation o ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Update shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： the x-date have the potential to create significant risks across many markets. These Eliminating the debt ceiling would not authorize new spending, nor would it cost shuinu9870 Indeed, these risks were emphasized by Treasury Secretary Yellen in a letter to the US 2 Although the two policy debates can be ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Ziyi Chen +852-2978-0526 | ziyi.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Honglin Yan +852-2978-6666 | honglin.yan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 Disclosure Appendix GS Factor Profile Quantum The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research and ref ...

J P M O R G A N Figure 2.2: Industrial production - Steel 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 4. Housing, consumption and production 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Figure 3.5: Deadweight tonnage of departing ships - Bulk Ton mn Source: Elane Shipping Statistics, J.P. Morgan shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Source: Elane Shipping Statistics, J.P. Morgan • New home sales stayed modest, with hesitation for a year-end surge; secondary home sales slowed do ...

shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： December 19, 2024 08:16 AM GMT shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 M Update Hong Kong/China Leisure & Lodging | Asia Pacific 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Key Takeaways China's weekly hotel RevPAR was -4% YoY for the week, reflecting December 8- 14, 2024 vs. December 10-16, 2023. This slightly worsened from the prior week's -2%. However, the YoY decline in December has been narrower than we thought, reflecting flatte ...