更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH One Big Thing: The Long Goodbye The US Economy is humming: Atlanta Fed GDP Now at +3.3% for Q4 3-Oct 10-O ...

Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Basic Materials High CV thermal coal prices in AU (gNEWC) have fallen from ~$150/t in Oct to ~$130/t due to stable supply (Fig51) and softening demand (Fig53) with a warmer-thanexpected start to the winter resulting in elevated stock levels; we expect prices to remain range bound at $120-140/t in 2025, with upside driven by colder weather from La Nina or supply disruption from wet weather or surging gas prices, and downside from strong nuclear & gas output from JKT. API2 pric ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, discussing recent trends and forecasts for the sector. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Market Trends - November sales showed resilience, with a **1.4% year-over-year increase** compared to October's **-1.4%** decline, totaling **RMB 827 billion** in sales [5][19] - December sales are expected to continue this momentum, projected at around **RMB 260 billion**, representing a **-7% year-over-year** decline but a **+7% month-over-month** increase [19] - The overall forecast for FY24 indicates a **-32% year-over-year** decline in total sales, concluding at **RMB 2.71 trillion** [19] Market Dynamics - The property market is anticipated to experience a **de-stocking cycle** from **2025 to 2027**, with sales resilient in December but potentially cooling in the first quarter of 2025 [1] - The **Real Estate Investment (REI)** is expected to decline by **-10.4%** in 2025, continuing the negative trend due to low new starts and land sales [1][5] Policy and Regulatory Environment - A proactive policy approach was noted during the December **Central Economic Work Conference**, emphasizing the need for stabilization in the property and stock markets [3] - Key measures discussed include: - Stabilizing property prices in major cities, which is contingent on inventory levels (new homes currently at **28 months** of inventory) [3] - Demand-side policy changes to stimulate domestic demand, including potential removal of housing purchase restrictions [3] - Local execution of new policies is beginning to accelerate in cities like Hangzhou and Guangzhou [4] Construction and Completion Metrics - November saw a **39% decline** in completions year-over-year, the sharpest drop of the year, while starts remained low at **-26.8% year-over-year** [5] - The **completed but unsold residential inventory** increased by **0.3% month-over-month**, totaling **376.5 million square meters** [5] Price Trends - The **National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)** reported a slight dip in property prices across all city tiers, with Tier 1 cities showing a **flat** performance and Tier 2 and 3 cities experiencing minor declines [5] - The overall residential price index showed a **-6.0% year-over-year** change, indicating ongoing price pressures in the market [5] Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, certain companies are highlighted as top picks for investment, including **Beike**, **CRL**, and **Greentown**, due to their potential resilience and market positioning [4] Macro Economic Context - Broader economic indicators such as new loans and total social financing (TSF) were disappointing, reflecting weak household and corporate demand [5] - Retail sales growth slowed to **3.0%** in November, down from **4.8%** in October, indicating a cooling consumer sentiment [5] Additional Important Insights - The **completion and REI decline** is expected to continue, with new starts and land sales at their lowest since 2005, suggesting further downside risks for the new home market [1][5] - The **15th Five-Year Plan** emphasizes a balanced property market, focusing on affordable housing, rental housing, and private commodity housing [3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

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Summary of EMEA Gold Miners Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus on the gold mining industry in the EMEA region, particularly the outlook for gold prices in 2025 [1] - J.P. Morgan's Commodities Research maintains a bullish outlook for gold prices due to macroeconomic factors such as increased tariffs, trade tensions, inflation, and a growing US budget deficit [1][9] Key Insights - Gold prices have rallied approximately 30% in 2024, and the expectation is for prices to reach $3,000 per ounce by early 2026 [1][10] - Central bank purchases, especially from China, and strong retail demand in China are anticipated to support gold demand and prices in the near term [1][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) resumed gold purchases in November 2024 after a pause since April, indicating renewed interest in gold as a reserve asset [1][10][17] Demand Drivers - A 1% increase in China's reported gold holdings could equate to approximately 400 tonnes of gold buying [1][28] - Historical data shows that sharp devaluations of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) have coincided with increased gold import demand, suggesting that retail investors may view gold as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties [1][19] - Chinese retail gold demand is influenced by various factors, including price momentum, GDP growth, interest rates, and property market conditions [1][18] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally hold about 18% of their official reserves in gold, up from 15% at the end of 2023, reflecting a structural shift towards gold diversification [1][18] - Central bank net gold purchases in 2024 have amounted to around 694 tonnes, a 17% year-over-year decline but consistent with 2022 levels [1][17] Company Preferences - J.P. Morgan continues to favor EMEA gold miners such as Hochschild, AngloGold, and Fresnillo, all rated as Overweight (OW) [1][3] - Hochschild is on Positive Catalyst Watch due to expectations of successful ramp-up at the Mara Rosa project and potential dividend resumption [1][10] Market Sentiment - There is some skepticism among clients regarding the bullish forecast for gold, primarily due to uncertainty about future buyers at current price levels [1][9][15] - The report suggests that if the macro environment becomes more benign, there could be significant inflows into gold ETFs, as the attractiveness of money market funds diminishes [1][16] Conclusion - The outlook for gold in 2025 remains positive, driven by central bank purchases and robust demand from China, despite some market skepticism regarding price sustainability [1][9][10]

Product must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. Note, however, that the Firm has taken all reasonable steps to determine the accuracy and completeness of the disclosures made in the Important Disclosures section of the Product. The Firm's research department has received ...

16 December 2024 | 11:34AM HKT China: 70-city average primary property prices roughly stable in November annualized, -5.8% yoy. 1. After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 0.1% mom annualized in November (vs. -3.6% in October; Exhibit 1), on the back of ongoing easing policies. The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices increased notably in both primary and secondary markets in November (Exhibit 3). Year-on-year change in the weig ...

Figure 27: Phoenix Diesel – ANS $/bbl 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 50 70 90 10 30 110 130 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Figure 28: Salt Lake City Diesel – WTI Cushing $/bbl - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 15 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Figure 29: US Denver – WTI Cushing 3:2:1 Crack Spr ...

Key Takeaways Industry/Company - **Industry**: China Economics, Asia Pacific - **Company**: Not specified, focus on broader economic and policy analysis Core Points and Arguments - **Beijing Forward Guidance**: Beijing provided forward guidance for the fiscal package to be announced in March NPC, marking the first time in over a decade. This was a positive step, although the package is expected to remain modest with a slightly improved mix. - **Consumption Support**: Significant increase in special long-term CGBs for consumer goods trade-in program. The program is expected to double in size next year, covering more non-durable goods. - **Housing Market**: Use of LGSB to support housing inventory digestion and giving local government more autonomy in setting criteria for housing buyback. The size of the housing buyback program could be similar to this year's (~Rmb300bn), but easing the criteria may help accelerate implementation. - **Local Government Fiscal Constraints**: Efforts to promote central-local fiscal reforms and settling payables to corporates. Beijing is expected to adopt more central government leveraging to support the economy and use local debt swaps to mitigate the risk of a deflationary downward spiral. - **Consumption Tax Reform**: A pilot program on consumption tax reform (e.g., high-end watches, jewelry) is possible, but broad-based implementation is unlikely given the deflationary economy. Other Important Content - **Market Reaction**: The market reacted disappointedly to the vague CEWC statement last week, leading to the need for forward guidance. - **Fiscal Package**: The fiscal package is expected to be modest with a slightly improved mix, focusing on consumption support, housing market, and local government fiscal constraints. - **Economic Outlook**: The forward guidance indicates a cautious approach to economic policy, with a focus on addressing specific challenges in the economy.

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