Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Empire State manufacturing survey** and its implications for the manufacturing sector in the United States. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Decline in Business Activity**: The December Empire State manufacturing survey showed a significant decline, with the general business activity component dropping from **31.2 to 0.2**. This indicates a sharp downturn in manufacturing sentiment [16][26]. 2. **ISM-Weighted Composite**: The ISM-weighted composite index fell from **56.6 to 51.3**, reflecting a broader weakening in manufacturing conditions. Despite this drop, the index remains higher than levels seen in October and for most of the past couple of years [16][26]. 3. **Components of the Survey**: Most components of the survey exhibited weakness, with notable declines in current shipments and orders, which saw a **20+ point drop**. The employment index also reversed recent gains, returning to a softer range [2][16]. 4. **Future Conditions Index**: The future conditions index indicates a decline but does not fully reverse the surge seen in November. Capital expenditure plans slightly decreased from **13.4 to 11.6**, remaining relatively high [17][26]. 5. **Prices Paid and Received**: Prices paid are at their lowest level for the year, while prices received are at their lowest since mid-2023. This suggests a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [17][26]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Unfilled Orders and Inventories**: The only categories that showed improvement were unfilled orders, which increased by almost **2 points**, and inventories, which rose by **9.5 points**. This could indicate a buildup of stock in anticipation of future demand [17][26]. 2. **Comparison with Other Surveys**: The Empire survey presents a more positive outlook compared to other business surveys, despite the recent declines. This suggests that while there are challenges, the overall sentiment may still be relatively optimistic compared to other indicators [2][16]. 3. **Long-Term Trends**: The survey's historical data shows fluctuations in business conditions, with the current readings being part of a broader trend that has seen significant variability over the years [3][21]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the Empire State manufacturing survey and its implications for the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Risk Reward - Jiangxi Copper (0358.HK) finitiv, the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of China Property Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** sector, highlighting trends and forecasts for the real estate market in China for 2024 and beyond [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments Sales and Market Trends - **Sales Resilience**: November sales were more resilient than expected, with December likely to show a mild "tail bounce" in Tier 1 and good Tier 2 cities, but a potential cooling in 1Q25 [2][3]. - **Sales Forecast**: Estimated sales for December are around **Rmb 260 billion**, concluding FY24 at **-32% YoY** [53]. - **Completion and Starts**: November saw a **39% decline** in completions, the sharpest year-to-date decline, while starts remained low at **-26.8% YoY** [4][3]. Market Dynamics - **Destocking Cycle**: A property destocking cycle is expected to continue into **2025-2027**, with price stabilization anticipated [2][3]. - **New Home Market Size**: New starts and land sales are at their lowest since **2005**, indicating further downside for the new home market size [2][3]. - **Inventory Levels**: The national completed but unsold residential inventory reached **377 million sqm** by November 2024 [26]. Policy and Economic Environment - **Policy Vacuum**: The property sector may underperform due to a policy vacuum until March NPC, with local execution of new policies pending [3][17]. - **Monetary Limitations**: There are expected monetary limitations on RMB FX and capital outflow due to the upcoming US presidential inauguration in January 2025 [3]. - **Proactive Fiscal Policy**: A proactive fiscal policy stance was noted at the December Politburo/CEWC, indicating a move towards stabilizing the property market [17]. Price Trends - **Price Stabilization**: Property prices in key cities are expected to stabilize, but this depends on inventory levels, which currently stand at **28 months** for new homes [17]. - **Price Index Changes**: The NBS monthly primary price index for 70 key cities showed a **-6.1% YoY** change in November 2024 [14]. Investment Opportunities - **Top Picks**: Recommended stocks include **Beike**, **CRL**, and **Greentown**, which are viewed as having strong fundamentals despite the overall market challenges [3][17]. Macro Economic Indicators - **New Loans and TSF**: November new loans were **Rmb 580 billion**, significantly below expectations, indicating weak household and corporate demand [4]. - **Retail Sales**: Retail sales increased by **3.0%** in November, down from **4.8%** in October, reflecting a cooling consumer sentiment [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Land Sales**: Land sales in November showed a **-9% YoY** decline in GFA and a **+28% YoY** increase in value, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report includes various valuation metrics for listed property companies, indicating significant discounts in NAV and P/E ratios across the sector [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property sector, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Key Points **1. Earnings Growth and Valuation** * **Earnings Growth Convergence**: The report expects continued earnings broadening for 2025, with easier compares for economically sensitive sectors due to lagging effects of weaker production data over the past year. The S&P 500 EPS growth is projected at 10% in 2025, with a base case target of $6500 for the S&P 500 by year-end 2025. * **Valuation**: The report uses a proprietary fair value model, which accounts for the forces currently at work in the US equity markets. The fair value model suggests a range of 19.4-24.3x for the S&P 500 trailing P/E. * **Sector Recommendations**: The report provides sector and industry group recommendations for Q4, with overweight positions in Media & Entertainment, Transportation, Telecommunications Services, Energy, and Insurance, and underweight positions in Automobiles & Components, Commercial & Professional Services, Software & Services, and Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail. **2. Market Outlook and Risks** * **Market Outlook**: The report expects a volatile bull market in 2025, with a base case target of 6500 for the S&P 500. The report highlights the importance of thematic fundamental tailwinds, such as AI and Trump policy, in identifying single stock and tactical alpha opportunities. * **Risks**: The report identifies several risks, including high trailing P/E, investor complacency, potential disruptions from changes in the rate and/or economic data trends, and geopolitical strife. **3. Sector Analysis** * **Communication Services**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Communication Services sector, driven by the "Magnificent 7" companies. * **Consumer Discretionary**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Consumer Discretionary sector, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power. * **Consumer Staples**: The report expects modest earnings growth in the Consumer Staples sector, with a focus on companies with strong balance sheets and operational efficiency. * **Energy**: The report expects strong earnings growth in the Energy sector, driven by higher commodity prices and improved production efficiency. * **Financials**: The report expects moderate earnings growth in the Financials sector, with a focus on companies with strong capital allocation and growth prospects. **4. Other Important Points** * **Productivity**: The report highlights the importance of productivity improvement in driving earnings growth and valuation. * **Buybacks**: The report notes the ongoing trend of buybacks, which has contributed to the de-equitization of the market. * **Capex**: The report expects continued strong capital expenditures, which should support future earnings growth. * **Quality Metrics**: The report provides quality metrics for various market cap and style buckets, highlighting the importance of quality in investment decisions. **5. Conclusion** The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the US equity market outlook for 2025, with a focus on earnings growth, valuation, and sector analysis. The report highlights several risks and opportunities, and provides valuable insights for investors.

Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, Morgan Stanley Research China's retail sales growth in November slowed down to +3.0% YoY, vs 4.8% in October, below expectations (vs. consensus at +4.6%), partly due to the front-loading effect of 11.11 promotion into Oct sales. Implied recovery pace vs. 2019 lowered to 115%, vs. 119% in October. Exhibit 1: Summary of Retail Sales Trend Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be ...

The property sector remained the weak link in the economy. On the one hand, property sales reversed to pick up, by 3.2% y/y versus a decline of 1.6% in October, the first increase since May 2023. On a sequential basis, declines in both the new- (November: -0.2%, October: -0.5%) and second-home (November: -0.3%, October: -0.5%) prices eased for a second month. The NBS said 58 out of the 70 major cities it monitors reported declines in secondary home prices in the month, which improved slightly from 59 in Oct ...

Asia Pacific Economic Research 16 December 2024 J P M O R G A N Housing price contraction narrowed further, though on the margin... The NBS 70 cities' new home prices inched down 0.2%m/m nsa in November, along with a 0.3% fall in secondary home sales. Both narrowed modestly from the 0.5% fall in October. In %oya terms, new home prices declined 6.1% (vs. -6.2% in October) and secondary home prices declined 8.5% (vs. -8.9% in October). Compared to the previous month, new home prices declined in 49 cities (vs. ...

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16 Dec 2024 00:28:37 ET │ 10 pages Activity Improvement Stalls into Year-End CITI'S TAKE Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsis ...

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. E= Hong Kong Govt. estimate Morgan Stanley Research 5 M Foundation Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Source: HKMA, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 summary M Foundation Hong Kong Economics | Asia Pacific December 16, 2024 09:00 PM GMT 2025 Outlook: Duel Challenges Ahead Real GDP growth is set to moderate in 2025-26, as rising USChina trade tensions and increased price competitiveness in Mainland China weigh on investment and consumpt ...