Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: IT Services * **Outlook**: Gradually improving cyclical outlook for 2025 * **Key Drivers**: * **Improving demand environment**: Industry headwinds in major verticals like Financials are abating, and discretionary demand is expected to pick up in 2025. * **AI adoption**: AI could become accretive to industry growth within 12-18 months as companies transition from proof-of-concept projects to larger projects. * **Shifting macro landscape**: Potential changes in H-1B visas, scrutiny on government spending, and a possible resolution in Ukraine could impact the industry. Key Company Analysis * **Accenture (ACN, Buy, $420 PT)**: * **Upgrade to Buy**: Believed to be well-positioned to capture a recovery in discretionary spending and has best-in-class AI capabilities. * **Cyclical headwinds moderating**: Financial Services and Consulting segments are seeing improving conditions. * **Outsourcing bookings translating to revenue**: Record-high outsourcing bookings are expected to drive revenue growth in 2025. * **AI potential**: Significant AI investments and partnerships position the company for potential revenue accretion by 2026. * **EPAM Systems (EPAM, Buy, $295 PT)**: * **Upgrade to Buy**: Expected to post improving growth in 2025 as discretionary demand for new technology builds. * **Differentiated provider of high-end engineering services**: Focus on applications and data integration, with a strong engineering edge. * **Ukraine resolution potential**: A potential resolution in Ukraine could improve growth trends and stabilize revenue per employee. * **Cost structure benefits**: Potential to rebuild delivery base in Ukraine and revitalize an attractive cost structure. Other Key Points * **Discretionary spending improving**: Discretionary spending is expected to improve over the course of 2025 as vertical-specific pressures abate. * **AI flywheel gaining momentum**: AI could become accretive to industry growth within 12-18 months as companies transition from proof-of-concept projects to larger projects. * **Shifting macro landscape**: Potential changes in H-1B visas, scrutiny on government spending, and a possible resolution in Ukraine could impact the industry. * **Top Buy-rated ideas**: IBM, Globant, and Accenture are highlighted as companies well-positioned to benefit from the improving IT Services sector. * **Top Sell-rated idea**: TaskUs is identified as facing headwinds in an increasingly challenged BPO market.

Summary of OPEC+ Conference Call on December 5, 2024 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Key Organization**: OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) Core Points and Arguments 1. **Production Cuts Extension**: OPEC+ has agreed to extend the 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd) voluntary cuts by three months, now set to last until April 1, 2025, marking the third postponement of the unwinding of cuts that have been in place for over two years [2][7][9] 2. **Phased Unwinding of Cuts**: The unwinding of the 2.2 mbd cuts will now occur over 18 months instead of 12, extending to September 2026. This adjustment is seen as marginally supportive for supply and demand balances [2][9][30] 3. **Market Surplus Projections**: The expected market surplus for 2025 has been reduced to 0.2 mbd, down from a previous estimate of 0.5 mbd. However, the surplus is projected to grow to 1.2 mbd in 2026 due to returning OPEC+ barrels and faster non-OPEC production growth [2][30][29] 4. **Oil Price Forecast**: The Brent crude oil price forecast remains at USD 70 per barrel for 2025 and beyond, indicating a stable outlook despite the production adjustments [2] 5. **Spare Capacity**: OPEC+ is expected to have considerable spare capacity of around 5.2 mbd by the end of 2026, which is above long-term averages. This indicates that the group may struggle to unwind cuts effectively due to non-OPEC production growth outpacing demand [2][30] 6. **Iran's Role**: The potential for reduced Iranian oil exports due to stricter sanctions under a new US administration is seen as a wildcard that could provide OPEC+ with some leeway to increase its output [2][30] Additional Important Content 1. **Compliance Improvements**: Recent improvements in compliance by Iraq and alignment from the UAE regarding production increases have helped maintain cohesion within OPEC+ [2][30] 2. **Production Baseline Discussions**: Discussions on production baselines have been postponed from November 2025 to November 2026, indicating ongoing complexities in managing production levels [2][9] 3. **Monthly Production Increases**: The monthly increases in production from the OPEC+ "Voluntary Eight" have been adjusted to 120,000 barrels per day, down from 180,000 previously, reflecting a more cautious approach to output increases [30][32] 4. **Impact of Non-OPEC Production**: Non-OPEC production is expected to grow faster than demand over the next two years, which poses a challenge for OPEC+ in managing its output effectively [2][30] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and implications from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the strategic decisions made regarding production cuts and the anticipated market dynamics in the oil industry.

Summary of EEMEA Oil and Gas Chartbook Equities Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Region**: EEMEA (Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) Key Points 1. **OPEC+ Output Decisions**: OPEC+ has agreed to postpone output hikes due to weak oil demand, extending the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) of voluntary cuts over 18 months instead of 12 months previously [15][15][15] 2. **Saudi Arabia's Jack-Up Rigs**: The active jack-up rig count in Saudi Arabia is expected to drop to 61 by mid-December 2024 from 88 rigs in February 2024, approaching pre-2020 levels [12][12][12] 3. **China's Oil Imports**: Crude oil imports to China increased by 9% month-on-month (mom) and 4% year-on-year (yoy), primarily driven by stockpiling rather than actual demand [14][14][14] 4. **Global Oil Demand**: Overall global oil demand growth remains weak, with notable declines in diesel and gasoline demand in the US and China [14][14][14] 5. **European Refining Margins**: European refining margins have weakened, averaging USD 6.3 per barrel but dropping to USD 3-4 per barrel in early December 2024, influenced by increased output from Nigeria's Dangote refinery [17][17][17] 6. **Freight Rates**: Clean tanker day rates have seen a modest increase, but remain significantly lower than in the first half of 2024 due to oversupply [18][18][18] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The third wave of rig suspensions in Saudi Arabia may affect between five and ten rigs, which is an increase from the previously expected five [12][12][12] - **Regional Production Compliance**: Iraqi oil production has declined to comply with OPEC+ quotas, while Kazakhstan's output rebounded significantly in November 2024 [15][15][15] - **Economic Impact**: Weaker refining margins have led to economic cuts in operations, with some refineries, like Gunvor's Rotterdam facility, facing closures [17][17][17] Conclusion The EEMEA oil and gas sector is currently facing challenges due to weak demand, regulatory decisions from OPEC+, and fluctuating refining margins. The situation is compounded by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that continue to evolve.

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Export Demand**: Export demand remains strong, particularly in the Belt and Road (B&R) regions, contributing to higher margins. However, tariffs pose a downside risk. 2. **Domestic Market**: The domestic market is expected to see limited downside and some signs of recovery in 2025, driven by mild growth and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Sector Performance**: The construction machinery sector has seen a surge in stock prices YTD, driven by sustained export growth and domestic stimulus measures. **Company Analysis** 1. **Sany**: Sany is preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Sany is adjusted to HKD22.00 (RMB22.00) with a Buy rating. 2. **Zoomlion-H**: Zoomlion-H is also preferred due to its higher contribution from export and excavators. The target price for Zoomlion-H is adjusted to HKD6.20 (RMB7.90) with a Buy rating. 3. **Zoomlion-A**: Zoomlion-A is downgraded to Hold due to weaker-than-expected domestic sales and export growth moderation. The target price is adjusted to RMB7.90 (HKD6.20) with a Hold rating. **Market Outlook** 1. **Export Growth**: Export growth is expected to sustain at 10-20% in 2025, normalizing from the high base of 30-50% growth in 2024e. 2. **Domestic Growth**: Domestic sales growth is expected to turn positive in 2025, driven by easy comparisons and potential stimulus measures. 3. **Valuation**: The sector trades at a 2.0x 1-year forward PB, below the historical average of 2.3x since 2012. **Additional Considerations** 1. **Tariffs**: Tariffs remain a downside risk for export businesses. 2. **Domestic Weakness**: Domestic weakness in property-related machinery could impact overall sector performance. 3. **Replacement Demand**: Replacement demand is expected to be the main driver of domestic excavator sales in 2025e.

Company and Industry Highlights **1. Company Overview** - **Meituan (3690.HK)**: China's leading e-commerce platform for services, focusing on mass-market, essential, and high-frequency service categories. - **Business Segments**: Food delivery, in-store hotel & travel, new initiatives, and others. - **Growth**: Meituan has experienced significant growth, with its total gross transaction volume reaching Rmb515.6bn in 2018, a 44.3% increase year-over-year. **2. Post-3Q24 Management Investor Call Takeaways** - **Shen Hui Yuan and Pin Hao Fan**: Successful redirection of Shen Hui Yuan membership from food delivery to other segments like in-store, hotel, and travel. - **Core Local Commerce Unit Economics (UE)**: Significant improvement in UE due to economies of scale, increased 1P orders, and improving ad revenue as a percentage of GTV. - **Instashopping**: Order volume growth outgrew food delivery, reflecting management's efforts to increase purchase frequency. - **Instore, Hotel, and Travel**: Healthy growth in transaction frequency, particularly in lower-tier cities. - **New Initiatives**: Operating loss of new initiatives narrowed in 3Q24, with potential fluctuations in 4Q24E due to increased investments in overseas expansion and other factors. - **Overseas Expansion**: Management maintains an open-minded approach to overseas expansion, particularly in the Saudi market. **3. Valuation and Investment Strategy** - **Buy Rating**: Citi maintains a Buy rating on Meituan, citing its value proposition, technology-centric infrastructure, data capabilities, unique platform position, and attractive valuation. - **Catalysts**: Expected profitability of the food delivery business, scale-back of investments in new initiatives, and faster growth of higher-margin businesses. - **Valuation**: Citi uses a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach to value Meituan, resulting in a target price of HK$203 per share. **4. Risks** - **Competition**: Intense competition in the food delivery market. - **Labor Costs**: Rising labor costs. - **COVID-19**: Resurgence of COVID-19 cases in China. - **Economic Activities**: Weaker economic activities affecting consumer consumption. - **User Behavior**: Changes in user behavior and threats of mini programs. - **Strategic Partnerships**: Shifts in the nature of collaborations with strategic partners.

M Update December 6, 2024 05:01 AM GMT | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Fund Flow Insights - December 6, 2024 Industry Overview - The report focuses on fund flows in the equity and bond markets, particularly highlighting trends in Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) as of December 4, 2024 Key Points Fund Flows - **Equity Funds**: Inflows of **US$8.2 billion** into equity funds were recorded, with bond funds seeing inflows of **US$4.9 billion** during the week ending December 4, 2024 [2][3] - **ETFs**: Strong inflows into US and Global ETFs at **US$13.3 billion** and **US$4.8 billion** respectively, while non-ETFs experienced seasonally weak flows [2] - **Emerging Markets (EM)**: Notably, there was a **US$0.6 billion** inflow into EM funds, marking the first net inflow in 8 weeks [3] - **Geographic Breakdown**: - Taiwan and Korea ETFs saw inflows of **US$0.6 billion** and **US$0.5 billion** respectively, while GEM ETFs had inflows of **US$0.3 billion** [3] - China funds continued to experience net redemptions of **US$0.2 billion** [3] Regional Insights - **India**: Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows have been volatile, with almost net zero flow during the week [3] - **Taiwan**: Experienced a foreign inflow of **US$1.0 billion** [3] - **Korea**: Continued to see a net outflow of **US$0.8 billion** [3] - **Japan**: Recorded a second consecutive week of foreign outflow totaling **US$1.2 billion** [3] Performance Metrics - **European Funds**: Experienced significant outflows of **US$5.1 billion** [2] - **Cumulative Flows**: The report includes figures showing cumulative equity fund flows and performance metrics across various regions, indicating a mixed performance across DM and EM markets [4][10] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering potential conflicts of interest due to Citigroup's business relationships with covered companies [6] - The data presented includes various figures and charts illustrating fund flows by geographic focus, performance comparisons, and cumulative flows over the past 52 weeks [4][10][20] Conclusion - The fund flow insights indicate a recovery in EM fund flows, particularly in Taiwan and Korea, while European funds face significant outflows. The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with varying performance across different regions and fund types [2][3][4]

6 December 2024 Equity Research Report China's poultry industry Equities Agricultural Products 2025 outlook: Supply pressure persists, but low costs may fuel an earnings improvement ◆ 9M24 chicken meat supply growth beats our estimates; we expect supply pressure to persist in 2025 ◆ Lower breeding costs due to falling raw material prices should improve breeding profitability in 2025 ◆ Maintain Buy on Sunner, TP to RMB19.40 (from RMB21.50), and Wellhope, TP to RMB9.10 (from RMB8.30) Recent share price rally ...

6 December 2024 Global bond flows compass ixed Incon 2024 in review: Flows in favour of high yielders � Asia: India Gsecs recorded their largest inflow in EM Asia followed by KTBs in Korea; sizeable outflows from China government bonds ♦ LatAm: Strong inflows into Brazil local government debt; foreign demand for Mexico Mbonos has remained choppy ◆ CEEMEA: Strong foreign inflows into long-dated PolGBs and SAGBs; non-residents trimmed their exposure in CZGBs Chart of the week: Strong y-t-d foreign inflows int ...

Summary of Global Semiconductor Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Semiconductor** industry, highlighting sales performance and market trends for October 2024 and projections for the coming years [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: - Total semiconductor sales decreased by **13.0% month-over-month (M/M)** in October, which is approximately **530 basis points worse** than normal seasonal averages [2][4]. - Only the logic segment saw a **4.4% M/M growth**, while other sub-markets experienced contractions [2][4]. - Excluding memory, integrated circuit (IC) revenue dropped by **3.0% M/M**, aligning with the 10-year seasonal average but **200 basis points below** the 5-year average [2][4]. 2. **Segment Performance**: - **Microcontroller Units (MCU)**, **Digital Signal Processors (DSP)**, and **Analog** segments posted declines of **29.5%**, **28.7%**, and **12.9%** M/M, respectively, all significantly worse than the 10-year seasonal averages [2][4]. - **Memory sales** fell by **31.4% M/M**, driven by a **35% sequential drop in units**, partially offset by a **6% sequential increase in average selling price (ASP)** [2][4]. 3. **Year-over-Year (Y/Y) Growth**: - Y/Y growth in total semiconductor sales was **+12.4%**, which is **620 basis points better** than the 10-year average, but a deceleration from an average of **~20% Y/Y growth in Q3** [2][4]. - Excluding memory, IC revenue increased by **8.3% Y/Y**, approximately **150 basis points higher** than the 10-year average [2][4]. 4. **Forecast Adjustments**: - The semiconductor forecast was trimmed due to lowered expectations for Analog and MCU revenue, alongside anticipated pricing declines for DRAM and NAND flash [2][4]. - Non-memory semiconductor revenue is projected to grow by **+8%**, **+19%**, and **+9%** Y/Y in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][4]. 5. **Total Semiconductor Revenue Projections**: - Total semiconductor industry revenues are expected to grow **21% Y/Y** to **US$633 billion** in 2024, rising **24% Y/Y** to **US$782 billion** in 2025, and trending up **9% Y/Y** to **US$853 billion** in 2026 [2][4]. 6. **Preferred Stocks**: - In the U.S. market, preferred stocks include **AMD**, **ALGM**, **ADI**, **AVGO**, **ARM**, **MCHP**, **MU**, **NVDA**, and **TXN**, all rated as "Buy" [2][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Memory Market Outlook**: - The memory segment is expected to face near-term softness but is projected to recover in 2025 [2][4]. - DRAM sales specifically fell by **34.3% M/M**, while NAND sales declined by **27.4% M/M** [2][4]. - Contract pricing for DRAM is expected to increase by **10%** in Q4 2024, while NAND flash ASP is anticipated to decrease by **1%** and **4%** in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2][4]. - **Market Estimates**: - Street estimates for total semiconductor revenue for CQ4:24 are set for a **5.9% Q/Q increase**, with estimates for revenues excluding memory implying a **4.6% Q/Q increase** [2][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry.