19 Nov 2024 01:07:39 ET │ 11 pages Asia FX and Rates Strategy China: Foreign holdings of China bonds reduced further in Oct'24 Foreign flow in fixed income — Foreign holdings of China bonds decreased by US$20bn in Oct'24, mostly driven by CGBs and NCDs. Foreign investors net bought US$1.4bn on the market, but it was not enough to offset US$21.4bn maturity. Overall portfolio flows — Net remittance turned into outflow of US$25.8bn and conversions led to net FX buying of US$3.1bn. This suggests net outflow of ...

November 18, 2024 01:00 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of the 2025 US Economic Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economy and its outlook for 2025, highlighting potential paths influenced by political changes and economic policies [2][6][9]. Core Economic Points - **Growth Projections**: The US economy is expected to experience a mild downshift in growth to 2% in 2025, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [2][6]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Core PCE inflation is projected to decelerate to 2.3% in 2025, down from previous highs [2][6]. - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve include a 25 basis point cut in December 2024 and an additional 75 basis points by the end of Q3 2025, stabilizing at 3.75% [2][6]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Labor supply growth is expected to slow, with breakeven payroll growth falling below 100,000 by 2026, while labor demand moderates without triggering a recession [2][6][9]. Economic Risks and Uncertainties - **Policy Uncertainty**: The incoming administration's policies on immigration and trade could significantly impact economic growth and inflation, with potential tariffs on China expected to add 0.2 percentage points to core inflation [10][11][32]. - **Higher Deficits**: A projected federal fiscal deficit of around 7% of GDP in 2026 is anticipated, influenced by the expiration of personal tax components of the TCJA [11][12]. Labor Market Insights - **Unemployment Trends**: The unemployment rate is expected to peak at around 4.5% in the first half of 2025 before improving back to 4.2% by year-end [34][38]. - **Job Growth**: Nonfarm payroll growth has cooled to just over 150,000, with a significant decline in job openings, indicating a balanced labor market [34][38]. Consumer Spending and Income - **Consumer Spending Growth**: Real consumer spending is projected to slow to around 2% in 2025, influenced by changes in disposable income and the saving rate [46][49]. - **Wage Growth**: Compensation growth is expected to moderate, with real labor income increasing by 2-2.5% [46][49]. Housing Market Dynamics - **Residential Investment**: Real residential investment is projected to rise by 3% in 2025, driven by new home sales and construction despite challenges in existing home sales [60][61]. - **Household Growth**: The adult population is expected to grow by approximately 3.8 million per year, with household growth estimates ranging from 0.9 million to 1.2 million annually [63][64]. Corporate Profit Outlook - **Profit Margins**: Domestic corporate profit margins are near record levels, with pretax profits expected to rise by 5-6% in 2025, although this represents a slowdown from previous growth rates [71][73]. - **Investment Trends**: Despite high profit margins, business investment spending remains low, with businesses acting as net lenders rather than borrowers [77]. Conclusion - The economic outlook for 2025 presents a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and policy uncertainties, with significant implications for various sectors including labor, consumer spending, housing, and corporate profits [2][6][11][12].

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: The report focuses on the US equity market and provides outlook and investment recommendations for 2025. * **Key Companies**: The report highlights the "Magnificent 7" stocks (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA) as significant contributors to the S&P 500 index's performance. * **M&A Candidates**: The report identifies a basket of 62 potential US M&A candidates with a meaningful probability of being acquired. * **SMB-Exposed Stocks**: The report recommends a basket of 60 stocks with revenue exposure to US small- and medium-sized businesses. * **AI Phase 3 Stocks**: The report identifies 30 stocks in "Phase 3" of the AI evolution with the potential to monetize AI by generating incremental revenues. Core Views and Evidence * **S&P 500 Index**: Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 index to rise to 6500 by year-end 2025, reflecting an 11% price gain and 12% total return with dividends. * **Earnings Growth**: The report expects earnings growth of 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. * **P/E Multiple**: The report projects a forward P/E multiple of 21.5x at the end of next year, a 1% compression from the current P/E of 21.7x. * **Magnificent 7**: The report expects the "Magnificent 7" stocks to outperform the S&P 500 index by approximately 7 pp in 2025, the slimmest margin in seven years. * **M&A Activity**: The report forecasts a 25% year/year increase in the number of completed mergers in 2025. * **SMB-Exposed Stocks**: The report expects an improving small business operating environment to lift the earnings and valuation of SMB-exposed stocks. * **AI Phase 3 Stocks**: The report expects investor interest to transition from AI infrastructure to broader AI "Phase 3" application rollout and monetization. Investment Recommendations 1. **Think Big**: Invest in the "Magnificent 7" stocks and seek opportunities in mid-cap equities. 2. **Maximize Your Options**: Invest in a basket of potential US M&A candidates. 3. **Low Rent, High Stakes**: Invest in a basket of stocks with revenue exposure to US small- and medium-sized businesses. 4. **Deliver the Goods**: Invest in stocks in "Phase 3" of the AI evolution with the potential to monetize AI. 5. **Protect the Downside and the Upside will take care of itself**: Overweight positions in Materials, Software & Services, and Utilities. Additional Key Points * The report emphasizes the importance of considering a diversified portfolio and taking advantage of periods of low volatility. * The report acknowledges the potential risks associated with high valuations and event risk. * The report provides a detailed analysis of the economic and earnings outlook for the US equity market.

Jefferies UK | Investment Companies Equity Research November 19, 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Xiaomi (1810) Overweight 1810.HK, 1810 HK EV momentum stronger; Core earnings resilient, with some uptick in hardware GMs; raise PT to HK$34 Xiaomi's 3Q earnings momentum continues to remain strong, with core revenues growing 17% YoY, and EV losses also narrowing. Key highlights were: (1) EV targets for 2024 raised to 130k units, on stronger execution and continued demand, (2) IoT GMs continue to see upside, helping to drive segment GM above 20% for the first time, and (3) Continued strong growth in premium ...

19 November 2024 | 7:23PM CST XPeng Inc. (XPEV): 3Q24 First Take: in-line results with strong 4Q24 guidance; Buy XPeng reported 3Q24 results with revenue in-line with GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus, gross profit +3%/+9% vs. GSe/Consensus, and gross margin improving by 17.9pp yoy/1.3pp qoq to 15.3%. We believe the gross margin improvement is mainly driven by higher volume scale which brought down fixed cost on a per vehicle basis, and further technology services revenue recognition from VW. EBIT was -2% vs. GSe ...

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: STMicroelectronics N.V. (NYSE:STM) * **Industry**: Semiconductor * **Focus**: Analog and sensors, power electronics, general-purpose microcontrollers Key Messages and Assumptions * **Revenue Target**: $18 billion with an EBIT margin of 22%-24% by 2027-2028. * **Growth Drivers**: * Analog and sensors in high-premium Personal Electronics * Power electronics, particularly power MOSFETs, diodes, and silicon carbide * General-purpose microcontrollers post-2024 and 2025 * **Success Factors**: * Reshaping manufacturing footprint and infrastructure * Cost base resizing to leverage growth and productivity improvement * Execution of the plan Transition Year and Visibility * **2025**: Transition year with low visibility in industrial markets * Bear scenario: Market flattish * Bull scenario: Acceleration in Q2 and H2 * **2026-2027**: Acceleration phase * Megatrends: Electrification of mobility, decarbonization of industry, AI * Additional revenue from connectivity, edge AI, and power: $1.5 billion - $1.7 billion Cost Restructuring * **Reorganization**: Splitting organization into two groups with similar technology and product development * **Manufacturing Transformation**: Transition to 300-millimeter and 200-millimeter fabs * **Headcount Reduction**: Attrition through early retirement and layoffs Industrial Market and Margins * **Visibility**: Short-term, with bear and bull scenarios * **Margin Impact**: Capacity reservation fees declining, unloading charges reducing, and efficiency improving China Strategy * **China-for-China**: Local production to compete with local players * **Partnerships**: Joint ventures with Sanan and [indiscernible] for critical technologies Automotive Market * **China**: Hybrid and extended-range vehicles growing, with ST leading in SiC market share * **Global**: Focus on SiC and power electronics for all vehicle types AI Opportunities * **Edge AI**: $600 million by 2030 * **Silicon Photonics**: $500 million by end of the decade * **AI Server**: 10% market share by end of the decade Sustainable Margin Structure * **2027-2028**: Gross margin of 44%-46% and operating margin of 22%-24% * **Long-term**: Potential for 50% gross margin and 30% operating margin Organic Growth and Acquisitions * **Organic Growth**: Strong belief in organic growth potential * **Acquisitions**: Open to larger-scale accretive acquisitions in automotive or industrial markets

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Jefferies London Healthcare Conference November 21, 2024 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Lavina Talukdar - IR Conference Call Participants Michael Yee - Jefferies Michael Yee Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us on the next session. This afternoon, we have the pleasure of having Moderna here with us and up on the front is the Head of Investor Relations, who everybody knows, Lavina Talukdar. Thank you for joining us. I would say quite a timely discussion because there ...

"All the News That's Fit to Print' the edges" in his projects. PAGE B1 worry it might not be safe. PAGE AI8 THE WEATHER Today, blustery, steady rain becom- t, windy, a shower, low 38. To- orrow, windy, chilly, showers, high VOL. CLXXIV .... No. 60,345 Wildfire Risk Only Growing For Northeast Climate Change Raises Chance of Dry Spells By HILARY HOWARD Rocky and Ren Hazelman run a chicken farm in West Milford, N.J .. about 10 miles south from the Jennings Creek wildfire along the state's border with New York. ...