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Summary of New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) - **Ticker**: EDU (H-share: 9901.HK) - **Market Cap**: $10.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $5.0 billion - **Current Price**: $61.87 (Target Price: $87.00, Upside: 40.6%) [2][4] Key Industry Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: - Recent draft regulations from Beijing emphasize that after-school tutoring (AST) institutions must comply with the Double Reduction policy, restricting the approval of new academic AST institutions [8][10]. - The draft specifies that local governments cannot approve new academic AST institutions for students in grades 1-9 and high school, requiring existing institutions to re-register [8][9]. - The regulatory landscape is expected to remain stable, aligning with previous national policies [10]. - **Market Dynamics**: - Offline licensed subject tutoring supply has been in continuous decline year-to-date, while growth in offline non-academic tutoring has moderated [11]. - As of November 2024, there are 297 academic and 1,044 non-academic tutoring institutions in Beijing [11]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected revenue growth for FY24-27E is 23% CAGR, with EPS growth at 34% CAGR [36]. - Revenue estimates for FY25E are $5,165.4 million, with EBITDA of $718.0 million [2]. - **Cash Management**: - The company has a net cash position of approximately $3.1 billion, excluding deferred revenue [34]. - Management has committed to returning capital to shareholders, including a $100 million special dividend and $300 million in share buybacks for FY24 [20]. Strategic Developments - **New Headquarters**: - Plans for a new headquarters building with a gross floor area of 200,000 sqm are underway to accommodate a growing workforce, with completion expected in 3-5 years [18]. - The company anticipates a 10-15% CAGR in total headcount from FY24-27E [18]. - **Overseas Study Demand**: - Demand for overseas study has rebounded, with the US accounting for less than 20% of total overseas study demand for Chinese students [7][23]. - The number of US F-1 student visas issued to Chinese students has decreased by 4% year-over-year, remaining 22% below FY19 levels [23][32]. Investment Thesis - **Valuation**: - The current valuation is considered appealing, with a forward P/E multiple below historical averages [36]. - Target prices are set at $87 for EDU and HK$68 for 9901.HK based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis [7][34]. - **Risks**: - Key risks include potential regulatory changes, weaker-than-expected capacity expansion, and geopolitical factors affecting demand for overseas test preparation [34]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: - New Oriental Education & Technology is positioned for growth in a stable regulatory environment, with a strong focus on expanding its educational services and managing shareholder returns effectively [36].

Summary of US Semiconductors 3Q24 Microprocessor Market Share Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US semiconductor industry, specifically the microprocessor market for the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24) [2][11]. Key Companies Involved - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)** - **Intel Corporation (INTC)** - **ARM Holdings PLC (ARM)** Core Insights and Arguments Microprocessor Market Performance - Total microprocessor unit shipments increased by 1.5% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in 3Q24, surpassing the seasonal decline of 2.8% QoQ, driven by above-seasonal notebook and server CPU shipments [3][11]. Market Share Changes - **AMD**: - Gained 233 basis points QoQ, reaching a total market share of 21.6% in 3Q24, up from 19.2% in 2Q24 [4][12]. - Notable share gains in: - Notebook: Increased by 174 basis points QoQ to 19.8% - Desktop: Increased by 513 basis points QoQ to 26.8% - Server: Slight increase of 2 basis points QoQ to 22.53% [4][12]. - **Intel**: - Lost 262 basis points QoQ, resulting in a market share of 68.4% in 3Q24, down from 71.1% in 2Q24 [5][15]. - Recorded the lowest x86 share since 2006 at 76.0% in 3Q24. - Declines in specific segments: - Desktop: Down 608 basis points QoQ to 66.4% - Notebook: Down 171 basis points QoQ to 68.9% - Server: Down 33 basis points QoQ to 70.5% [5][15]. - **ARM**: - Increased market share by 29 basis points QoQ to 10.0% in 3Q24 [6][17]. - Gains in: - Server: Up 31 basis points QoQ to 7.0% - Desktop: Up 95 basis points QoQ to 6.8% - Notable loss in notebook share, down 2 basis points QoQ to 11.39% [6][17]. Shipment Trends - Notebook MPU shipments rose by 3.2% QoQ, exceeding the seasonal decline of 10.4% QoQ. - Desktop MPU shipments fell by 4.8% QoQ, underperforming against a seasonal increase of 23.9% QoQ due to excess inventory. - Server MPU shipments increased by 7.0% QoQ, also exceeding the seasonal decline of 6.0% QoQ [7][19]. Ratings and Recommendations - **Intel (INTC)**: Maintained a Neutral rating [3][22]. - **AMD**: Maintained a Buy rating, with a target price of $200.00, reflecting a valuation of 46x C25E EPS, driven by growth opportunities in AI [25][26]. - **ARM**: Valued at a target price of $170, based on a 1.7x PEG ratio, reflecting strong growth potential [30][33]. Risks Identified - **AMD**: - Competition with Intel and NVIDIA could impact market share and estimates [26]. - Dependence on the PC market, which constitutes about 20% of sales, makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in IT spending [27]. - Significant revenue dependence on major customers like Sony and Microsoft [27]. - **Intel**: - High dependency on the PC and server markets, which account for approximately 80% of sales, poses risks related to IT spending fluctuations [39]. - Customer concentration risk, with three largest OEMs representing about 46% of revenue [40]. - **ARM**: - Risks associated with cyclical recovery and competition from RISC-V in the chip design market [34][35]. - High customer concentration, particularly with Arm China, which accounts for 24% of FY23 sales [36]. Conclusion The 3Q24 microprocessor market shows a significant shift in market share dynamics, with AMD and ARM gaining ground at the expense of Intel. The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential risks that could affect future performance in the semiconductor industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Coal Imports Industry Overview - The report focuses on the coal industry, specifically China's coal imports and production dynamics in 2024 and beyond [2][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Coal Imports**: - China has experienced a year-over-year increase in coal imports, with thermal coal imports surprising to the upside since Q4 2023, driven by energy security policies and inventory targets [3][24]. - The forecast for China thermal coal imports has been upgraded to 400 million tons (mt) for 2024, surpassing the record-high levels of 2023 [5][24]. 2. **Inventory Dynamics**: - China's total coal inventory has more than tripled from 2021 to 2023, reaching approximately 600 mt year-to-date, with an annual average increase of 176 mt/year [8][25]. - Despite the significant inventory buildup, China's coal inventories remain low compared to consumption, with only 39 days of coal inventory at the end of 2023, compared to 78 days for natural gas in Europe [9][12]. 3. **Production Challenges**: - Stricter safety and pollution checks from November 2023 to May 2024 led to a decrease in coal production for the first time since 2018, with a significant drop of 54 mt in production during this period [4][17]. - Production has since recovered, and it is expected to continue growing into 2025, with an annual growth of approximately 100 mt in 2024 [19][24]. 4. **Price Forecasts**: - The report upgrades the forecasts for Newcastle and API2 coal prices by approximately $20 and $5 per ton, respectively, due to the increase in expected China coal imports [6][37]. - The new price forecasts are set at $140/125 per ton for Newcastle and $120/105 per ton for API2 for 2024Q4/2025A [6][37]. 5. **Global Market Impact**: - The increase in China’s coal imports has been partially offset by stronger-than-expected coal supply from Indonesia and weaker demand from developed markets (DM) [6][36]. - The report anticipates that DM coal demand weakness will continue, driven by a transition to renewable energy and lower natural gas prices, which may lead to a decline in global thermal coal imports after 2023 [36]. Additional Important Insights - **Energy Security Policies**: - China's energy security remains a top priority, influencing the push for higher coal inventory levels, although the pace of inventory buildup is expected to slow down due to already high storage levels [12][13]. - The National Coal Production Capacity Reserve initiative aims for a production capacity of 300 mt per annum by 2030, which may support a slower pace of inventory buildup [14]. - **Accident and Safety Concerns**: - There has been a concerning increase in coal mine casualties, which more than doubled from 2021 to 2023, highlighting ongoing safety issues in the coal production sector [20]. - **Future Outlook**: - The report suggests that while there are balanced risks to the upgraded forecasts, potential policy changes in China could lead to a re-acceleration of inventory buildup, maintaining high import levels [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry, particularly focusing on China's coal imports, production challenges, and market dynamics.

Flash | Buy Price (05 Nov 24 15:00) Rmb33.960 Target price Rmb38.300 Expected share price return 12.8% Expected dividend yield 1.7% Expected total return 14.5% Market Cap Rmb57,637M US$8,118M 05 Nov 2024 10:21:53 ET │ 10 pages Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SS) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Lower Lithium Cost with Lithium Sulfate Plant in 3Q25E CITI'S TAKE We hosted 2024 Citi China Conference and met with Huayou on Nov 5. Ms. Chen Chen, Securities Affairs Director, attended the meeting. The to ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Metals & Mining Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Metals & Mining** industry, specifically the **steel market** in China. Key Points 1. **Record Steel Net Exports**: In October 2024, China achieved an all-time high in steel net exports, reaching **10.6 million tonnes**, which is a **40% year-over-year increase**. The total net exports for the first ten months of 2024 have already surpassed the entire fiscal year 2023 total, amounting to **86.3 million tonnes** [1][2][4]. 2. **Annual Projections**: If the current rate of net exports continues, the total for fiscal year 2024 could exceed **100 million tonnes**, representing a **24% year-over-year increase** compared to fiscal year 2023 [1][4]. 3. **Price Dynamics**: A **500 RMB/tonne** increase in Chinese steel prices from mid-September to early October has narrowed price differentials with global markets. However, the impact on export volumes typically lags by **2-3 months** [1][3]. 4. **Historical Context**: Steel net exports peaked at **100 million tonnes** in 2015, dropped to **52 million tonnes** in 2021, and rebounded to **83 million tonnes** in 2023. The current levels are still **18% below** the peak in 2015 [4][5]. 5. **Global Production Impact**: The increase in Chinese steel exports is expected to reduce the production capacity for steel outside of China by more than **3%** in 2024, indicating a significant influence on global steel production dynamics [5]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Trends**: The average monthly net export over the past five years has been around **4.7 million tonnes**, highlighting the recent surge as a notable deviation from historical norms [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The increase in price differentials during July to early October has incentivized exports, suggesting that market conditions are conducive to continued high export levels in the near term [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the steel market in China, emphasizing the significant increase in net exports and its implications for global steel production.

05 Nov 2024 12:36:05 ET │ 11 pages Flash | Xinyi Solar (0968.HK) What's New from 2024 Citi China Conference: Loss on Solar Glass to Persist in Next 5 Months CITI'S TAKE We met with the CFO of Xinyi Solar ("XYS") at Citi China Conference today. Key takeaways include: (i) XYS is loss-making from solar glass sales at current prices and its profitability could further deteriorate with winter gas price hike; (ii) solar glass price is unlikely to increase in near term during off-season of solar demand; (iii) sola ...