Summary of TCL Tech Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TCL Tech - **Industry**: LCD and OLED display panel manufacturing - **Market Position**: Second-largest LCD display panel supplier in China, largest gaming monitor and LTPS panel maker globally [doc id='34'] Key Financial Insights - **Earnings Forecast**: Earnings forecast raised by 12-18% for 2025-26, reflecting a positive outlook on TCL's panel business [doc id='1'][doc id='31'] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected panel business revenue CAGR of 16% from 2024-26, driven by large panel area shipments and improved ASP [doc id='9'][doc id='2] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Anticipated sustained improvement in FCF due to disciplined capex and enhanced operating cash flow [doc id='3'][doc id='1'] Valuation and Price Target - **Price Target**: Increased from Rmb4.00 to Rmb6.00, implying a 1.9x 2025E P/BV [doc id='4'][doc id='28] - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb4.88 as of February 24, 2025 [doc id='6'] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb91.6 billion (approximately US$12.7 billion) [doc id='6'] Panel Business Insights - **Panel Shipments**: Large panel area shipments expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2024-26, supported by the acquisition of LGD Guangzhou G8.5 fab and ramp-up of T9 fab [doc id='2'][doc id='9] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Anticipated increase in large-size LCD panel ASP by 3% in 2025 and 1% in 2026 due to improved product mix [doc id='2'][doc id='9] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected GPM growth of 2.7ppt in 2025 and 1.7ppt in 2026, driven by product mix improvement and peak depreciation in 2026 [doc id='17'][doc id='2] Risks and Market Sentiment - **Stock Performance**: TCL's stock has underperformed the A-share Electronics Index by 22ppt since October 2024, indicating market skepticism about the sustainability of panel price recovery [doc id='20'][doc id='9] - **Debt Levels**: Net debt projected to decrease from Rmb144.8 billion in 2024E to Rmb138.6 billion in 2025E [doc id='5'] Industry Outlook - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Expected undersupply in large panels in 2024, with a potential oversupply in 2025, followed by another round of undersupply from Q3 2026 [doc id='35'] Additional Insights - **Capex Plans**: Total capex expected to decline by Rmb5 billion in 2025, stabilizing in 2026 [doc id='3] - **Depreciation Trends**: Combined depreciation for the panel business expected to peak in 2026, allowing for faster revenue growth compared to depreciation [doc id='2'][doc id='9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the TCL Tech conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, market position, and future outlook.

February 25, 2025 12:36 AM GMT Greater China Materials | Asia Pacific DRC Suspends Cobalt Exports; Impacts on CMOC and Huayou Key Takeaways What's new? Bloomberg reported DRC has suspended cobalt exports for four months, effective from Feb 22, to rein in the oversupply, according to the country's Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets. DRC accounted for ~70% of global cobalt production in 2024. What's the impact? CMOC produced 114kt cobalt in 2024 and plans for 110 ...

February 23, 2025 09:41 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Sector Allocation & Focus List Changes - Rotating from Defensive to Tech Adoption Upgrade Media&Ent, IT & Cons Disc, downgrade Materials, Energy, Telecom & Utilities on more positive stance on China equity given tech adoption and equity risk premium alleviation. Add Meitu, HKEX, Espressif and Alibaba to China/HK Focus List, and Espressif and Tuopu to A-share Thematic list. Following our China upgrade report (China Equity Strategy: Getting O ...

24 February 2025 REMD Michelle Kwok* Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk +852 2996 6918 Oliver Yu* Analyst, Asia Real Estate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited oliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk +852 2288 2050 China Real Estate Equities 10 signs the market has bottomed China We highlight 10 signals that the China housing market has bottomed. Three years on, national new home sales have shrunk 48% vs the 20 ...

ab 24 February 2025 Global Research China Outlet Sector Can outlets continue to expand in China? 239 outlets in China in 2023; still less penetration than in the US | Stock Code | Company name | Close Price Market Cap | | EPS | | 24-26 EPS | | PE | | PEG | | PB | | ROE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （lc） US$ mn | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | CAGR | 2024E | 2025E | | | | 2026E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | ...

February 23, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Semiconductor Capital Equipment WFE update, NAND uptick but question durability We revise up our 2025/2026 WFE forecast from $96bn/$101bn to $99bn/$103bn. We like the tactical NAND set up but question durability due to end-market trends. What's Changed? We revise up our 2025 WFE forecast from $96bn (down 6% y/y) to $99bn (down 3%) and our 2026 forecast from $101bn (up 6%) to $103bn (up 4%). Our 2025 revision is driven by NAND ($1bn) and DRAM ($2bn) and we tweak up our 2026 NAN ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economics and Strategy - **Companies**: BAE Systems, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Core Insights and Arguments 1. **German Election Outcomes**: Preliminary results indicate a two-party coalition, with CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens failing to secure a two-thirds majority for constitutional changes, potentially leading to market disappointment regarding fiscal stimulus [3][4] 2. **US Economic Indicators**: Anticipation of a benign US core PCE release, with a forecasted year-over-year decrease from 2.8% to 2.5% [4] 3. **Global Growth Forecast**: Expected slowdown in global growth for 2025/2026, primarily due to US tariffs on China, which may negatively impact an already struggling economy [7] 4. **Defence Spending in Europe**: EU Commission's suggestion to exempt defence spending from fiscal rules could lead to increased defence budgets, supporting a bullish outlook on European equities and non-US defence stocks [7] 5. **BAE Systems Valuation**: BAE faces risks including government defence budget uncertainties, contract execution capabilities, and political risks in Saudi Arabia, with approximately 40% of its business derived from North America [11] 6. **Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Risks**: Risks include sluggish capital expenditure due to economic downturns in major markets, rising costs, and yen appreciation [12] Additional Important Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the potential for fiscal easing in Germany and the implications of higher defence spending on market narratives, particularly for bond yields and equity spreads [3][7] 2. **Investment Ratings**: Both BAE Systems and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are rated as "Buy," indicating positive expectations for their stock performance [26][33] 3. **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report emphasizes the need for increased self-reliance in European defence spending, with current EU spending at 2.0% of GDP compared to 3.4% in the US, suggesting a significant gap that needs to be addressed [7] 4. **Emerging Market Sentiment**: Optimism in China tech equities is noted, with MSCI China gaining 25% since mid-January, although the broader emerging market sentiment remains mixed [7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and specific company outlooks.

China (PRC) | Industrials Humanoid Robot – Expert Call Takeaways on DeepSeek Impact on Embodied AI We invited Victor Deng, former head of robot value chain investment at Kinzon Capital, on 18 Feb to share his knowledge about how DeepSeek is accelerating embodied AI development in the humanoid robot and potential value chain segment upon the breakthrough he sees in DeepSeek. See key takeaways below. Embodied AI critical to commercial value of humanoid robot: Embodied AI empowers humanoid robots with intellig ...

24 February 2025 | 7:18AM HKT The 720: China Autos, A vs. H shares, Miniso, Hengli downgrade, China Insurance, NetEase, Global growth vs. inflation/tariffs In Focus | China Autos China Autos - 4Q24E Preview: volume & margin improvement in 4Q24, with autopilot to be the focus in 2025. We preview 4Q24E results for our China auto OEMs coverage and roll forward our valuation by one year across the space. For this set of results, we expect investor focus to be on (1) Gross margin: the strong sales volume in 4Q s ...

V i e w p o i n t | 25 Feb 2025 05:26:19 ET │ 17 pages For DASH — while TKWY would help launch and accelerate new geographies, we believe DASH is more focused on organic international expansion (we note DASH has held talks with Deliveroo, per press reports (see here. Reuters, 25 June 2024) and we note the difficulty in competing in competitive markets with scaled logistics players (across the board). Not to mention a greater focus and attention on new vertical adoption (like grocery), in our view. Many prev ...