更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 16, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Asia | Asia Pacific Three Actionable Ideas Silergy – OW | GDS – OW | Suncorp – OW Source: Morgan Stanley Research, DataStream Refinitiv, Bloomberg. Performance data as at Feb 11, 2025. Cumulative outperformance: against local benchmarks. Holding period total return measures performance when idea was effective. **Avg. 12M total return measures performance of all ideas (closed and active) from Feb 11, 2024, to Feb 11, 2025, and does not adjust for bu ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 14 February 2025 | 2:24PM EST Apple Inc. (AAPL): December 2024 China phone data shows m/m acceleration BOTTOM LINE: December 2024 China foreign branded phone shipments - which we view as a proxy for Apple iPhone shipments in China - increased 1% yoy, marking the best monthly year-over-year growth since July 2024 (+3% yoy) and a sharp improvement from -47% yoy in the prior month (November 2024). That said, foreign branded phone shipments continued to lag the overall market with C ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 14 February 2025 | 11:15AM EST Americas Retail: Retail sales decline in January; December restated higher Of the 15 categories, 8 accelerated on a year over year basis compared to last month, including DIY, Food & Beverage, Food Services, General Merchandise, Department Stores, Gas Stations, Miscellaneous, and Health & Personal. On a two-year stack, of the 15 categories, 2 accelerated on a year over year basis compared to last month, including Food & Beverage and Gas Stations. O ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Japan Portfolio Strategy Tariffs headwind vs. 3Q results tailwind: Continue to expect earnings growth to lift Japan stocks Japanese equities have rebounded after navigating the January BOJ rate hike without incident. However, headwinds for global equities, including Japan, have re-strengthened since early February, after President Trump signed executive orders to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns about a potential trade war. We believe ea ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 16, 2025 11:00 PM GMT Global Steel M Global Idea Global Implications of US Universal 25% Tariff on Steel Chris Jiang Equity Analyst Chris.Jiang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1593 The latest move by the US to impose 25% tariffs on all steel imports without exception reinforces our view of an increasingly regionalized steel trade. In this report we assess global implications of this development and highlight those potentially advantaged and challenged by this move. Morgan S ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Strategy 16 Feb 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800 1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morga ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Logistics Cut express industry profit on competition; Cautious on freight forwarders; YTO & Sinotrans-H down to Sell We see intensifying express delivery competition this year as industry leader ZTO pivots back to a market share gain strategy and downgrade YTO to Sell on competition/downside risk to profit per parcel (converging with Tier 2 players). Meanwhile, we downgrade Sinotrans-H to Sell given export-driven businesses contribute 75+% of EBIT where we expect lower fre ...

Palisade Bio (PALI) Conference February 19, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker0 Welcome and thank you for joining us for the virtual investor on demand top five for '25. My name is Janine Thomas. I am CEO of JT CIR, and today we are featuring JD Finley. He is CEO of Palisade Bio. So JD will highlight his top five reasons why he believes you should pay attention to Palisade in 2025. And before I turn it over to JD, I'd like to remind you that the company will be making forward looking statements. And I encourage every ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker (February 13, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically oil demand and inventory trends. Key Points 1. **Global Oil Demand Growth** - Global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (mbd), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4 mbd. However, this figure is 500 thousand barrels per day (kbd) below monthly projections [4][4][4]. 2. **Heating Fuel Demand** - Colder weather in the U.S. is expected to increase heating fuel use, with February projected to average 824 heating degree days (HDD), exceeding the 10-year average of 778 HDD. This could further narrow the gap between actual and projected demand [4][4][4]. 3. **Gas-to-Oil Switching in Europe** - Rising natural gas prices in Europe may lead to a shift from gas to oil, potentially increasing European oil demand by 100-150 kbd. However, current pricing makes this switch unlikely, as high and low sulfur fuel oils are priced 22-30% higher than gas [4][4][4]. 4. **Impact of Sanctions on Oil Stocks** - Following new sanctions imposed by President Biden, global oil stocks have diverged from projections. Notably, there has been a significant drop in global commercial crude oil stocks as China and India halt acceptance of sanctioned tankers [4][4][4]. 5. **OECD Oil Stocks** - Contrary to global trends, visible OECD commercial oil stocks recorded a net build of 4 million barrels in the first week of February, driven by increases in both crude and oil product stocks [4][4][4]. 6. **Regional Oil Consumption Statistics** - Recent statistics show varied oil consumption across regions, with India reporting a year-over-year increase of 170 kbd in January, while Japan reported a decrease of 243 kbd in December [4][4][4]. 7. **Future Projections** - The report indicates that the gap between actual and projected oil demand is expected to narrow as demand for mobility and heating fuels picks up, particularly in the U.S. and Europe [4][4][4]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the logistical challenges that may hinder a significant switch from gas to oil in Europe despite the potential demand increase. - The classification of idle sanctioned vessels as floating storage is a developing situation that could impact future inventory reporting [4][4][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from J.P. Morgan's Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.

Summary of the National People's Congress (NPC) Preview Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Event**: National People's Congress (NPC) scheduled to start on March 5, 2025 Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, consistent with the 2024 target and actual performance [4][6][9] - Provincial targets for growth are generally set at "around 5%" or higher, with only Qinghai targeting around 4.5% [9][10] - The weighted average of provincial growth targets has slightly decreased from 5.4% to 5.3% [13] Employment Focus - The government aims to keep new urban employment targets above 12 million and maintain a surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5% [16][18] - None of the provinces with numeric job targets reduced their targets for 2025, indicating a strong focus on employment stability despite growth uncertainties [16][20] Inflation Expectations - The CPI target is expected to be set at "around 2%", marking the first downward revision since 2021 and the lowest target since 2003 [25][26] - This reflects a recognition of low inflation realities, with inflation not hitting targets since 2012 [25][29] Fiscal Policy and Revenue Growth - A fiscal expansion of RMB 2.5 trillion (~1.8% of GDP) is anticipated, with the overall government deficit projected to rise to approximately 4% of GDP [5][39][42] - Provinces have set muted expectations for fiscal revenue growth, with only two provinces targeting revenue growth above 5% [31][33] Tariff Impacts - A phased increase of 15% in tariffs on Chinese goods is expected, which could negatively impact exports by 6 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5][18] - Approximately 42 million urban jobs could be at risk due to these tariffs [18] Investment vs. Consumption - Local governments are focusing more on boosting investment rather than consumption, with no significant breakthroughs in consumer stimulus reported [32][34] - Provinces are looking to complete RMB 1 trillion in annual investments in key projects [34] Monetary Policy - Anticipated monetary policy adjustments include 50 basis points rate cuts and 100 basis points RRR cuts starting from Q2 2025 [5][39] Conclusion - The NPC is expected to reflect a mark-to-market approach, acknowledging current economic realities without making drastic new decisions [3][4][37] - Policymakers are likely to prioritize employment stability while managing growth expectations amid external pressures such as tariffs [5][16][39]