CITI'S TAKE We expect Meituan to report 4Q24 by end-Mar and expect in-line result with possible slight upside on core-local commerce Op. Into 1Q25/2025E, investors are concerned about on-demand delivery volume growth, unit- economics trend amid high-base, potential revival of competition in local services and margins drag from its accelerated pace of overseas expansion initiatives. Keeta has progressed rapidly in topping download chart in Saudi Arabia, which we believe could prompt Keeta to expand into othe ...

Summary of US Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US semiconductor industry, specifically discussing sales data and forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [1][9][26]. Key Points December Sales Performance - December semiconductor sales reached $59.1 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.8% but falling short of the seasonal expectation of 1.8% [1][10]. - The sales were above the forecasted estimate of $55.1 billion, which represented a month-over-month decline of 6.6% [1][10]. - Year-over-year, December sales increased by 14.1%, surpassing the estimated growth of 6.3% [2][10]. Unit Growth and Pricing - Units excluding discretes grew by 22.5% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the estimate of 5.9% and the seasonal growth of 7.4% [3][16]. - Year-over-year, units excluding discretes were up 8.2%, contrasting with the estimated decline of 6.5% [3][16]. - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) excluding discretes decreased by 18.7% month-over-month, which was below the expected decline of 12.2% and the seasonal decline of 5.8% [4][19]. - Year-over-year, ASPs rose by 6.7%, which was lower than the anticipated increase of 15.9% [4][19]. Sales Forecasts - For calendar year 2024, semiconductor sales were reported to be up 19.1% year-over-year, exceeding the previous forecast of 18% [1][5]. - The forecast for 2025 semiconductor sales has been raised from 9% to 13% year-over-year, amounting to $709.8 billion [6][24]. - The growth in 2025 is expected to be driven by below-seasonal growth in Q1 and seasonal growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4 [6][24]. Market Demand and Risks - Demand from data centers, AI, and communication markets, which collectively account for 30% of semiconductor demand, remains robust [7][26]. - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment in the analog segment in 2025 [7][26]. - The SOX index is currently trading at a 27X NTM P/E, which is a 22% premium over the S&P 500, indicating potential valuation risks for semiconductor stocks [26]. Segment Performance - Microcontroller sales saw a significant increase of 20.7% month-over-month, driven by higher unit sales [21]. - Conversely, microprocessor sales declined by 9.4% month-over-month, attributed to lower unit sales [20]. Additional Insights - The three-month rolling average sales for October to December 2024 were $57.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.1%, down from 20.3% in the previous period [11]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed performance with strong unit growth but declining prices, which could impact future profitability [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the conference call regarding the US semiconductor industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

FICC Research Economics 7 February 2025 Global Economics Weekly The art of rapid deal-making Last-minute negotiations averted tariffs on Mexico and Canada for now, showing a still-transactional Trump. But the trade war with China has begun and Trump's attention is expanding to the EU and geopolitical deals. Meanwhile, payrolls indicate a robust US labour market ahead of next week's CPI. Global Synthesis The art of rapid deal-making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Solar - **Recent Performance**: China solar names' share prices increased by 5% on February 7, 2025, outperforming the SHCOMP Index (+1%) and SZCOMP Index (+2%) [1][5][15] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand and Supply Expectations**: Anticipation of sequential improvement in demand and supply post-Chinese New Year (CNY) is driving market optimism, alongside hopes for policy intervention to curb supply [1][5][15] - **Polysilicon Price Outlook**: Polysilicon is expected to see a meaningful price increase around mid-to-end of Q2 2025 due to demand seasonality and current production utilization levels [1][5][11] - **Daqo's Position**: Daqo is placed on Positive Catalyst Watch due to its favorable risk/reward profile, especially if a price increase occurs [1][11][15] - **Valuation Ratings**: - **Daqo (DQ US)**: Overweight (OW) rating with a price target of $27.10 [3][14][22] - **Tongwei (600438 CH)**: Underweight (UW) rating due to excessive valuation despite potential benefits from polysilicon price hikes [1][29][36] Company-Specific Insights Daqo - **Market Cap**: $1.296 billion [3] - **Financial Estimates**: - FY24E Revenue: $1.188 billion, Adj. EPS: -$3.12 [17][26] - FY25E Revenue: $1.928 billion, Adj. EPS: $0.32 [17][26] - **Catalyst Watch**: Expected price reaction to polysilicon prices starting around May 6, 2025, with potential consensus earnings lift [11][16] - **Asset Impairment**: Recent profit warning indicates a clearing event, with expectations of improved profitability in 2025 [11][22] Tongwei - **Market Cap**: $14.051 billion [28] - **Financial Estimates**: - FY24E Revenue: Rmb117.953 million, Adj. EPS: -Rmb1.14 [28][32] - FY25E Revenue: Rmb153.793 million, Adj. EPS: Rmb0.05 [28][32] - **Valuation Concerns**: Current valuation at 2.0x FY25 P/BV is considered excessive, leading to an Underweight rating [1][29][36] Additional Important Insights - **Polysilicon Supply and Demand**: Expected polysilicon supply in January 2025 is 98,000 tons, while demand is projected at 101,000 tons, indicating a potential undersupply situation [11][12] - **Production Challenges**: Polysilicon producers face longer ramp-up times for production compared to wafer/cell/module manufacturers, which may lead to temporary undersupply in Q2 2025 [6][11] - **Risks to Ratings**: Downside risks include lower-than-expected polysilicon prices, slower production ramp-up, and higher power costs [24][40] Conclusion - The China solar sector is experiencing a rally driven by demand expectations and potential price increases in polysilicon. Daqo is highlighted as a key player with a favorable outlook, while Tongwei faces valuation challenges despite potential market benefits.

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Feb 2025 02:47:34 ET │ 26 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Macro Themes for the Tariff-Fatigued (And One That Is Not) CITI'S TAKE There is a lot going on outside of the threat of tariffs for various countries. A Ukraine peace deal could be discussed soon. We sell EURPLN. National security-driven tariffs may be put on various industries. We go long COMEX/LME copper basis. US banks' capital requirements may be eased. We counsel patience for US steepeners. The BoE is s ...

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Stock Ticker**: 6862.HK - **Market Cap**: Rmb75,467 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$14.90 - **Price Target**: HK$18.00, representing a 21% upside potential [5][9] Operational Updates - **Demand Trajectory**: Slightly better than expected but still weak; year-over-year (YOY) comparison for table turnover in February is higher than January due to Chinese New Year (CNY) timing [2][8] - **Earnings Growth**: Expected to be driven by margin improvements in the second half of 2024 and first quarter of 2025 [2] - **Cash Flow**: Disciplined investment and store openings are expected to generate solid cash flow, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% based on 2023 dividends per share (DPS) [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue Projections**: - 2023: Rmb41,453 million - 2024e: Rmb44,382 million - 2025e: Rmb48,757 million - 2026e: Rmb51,552 million [5] - **Net Income Projections**: - 2023: Rmb4,499 million - 2024e: Rmb4,494 million - 2025e: Rmb5,555 million - 2026e: Rmb6,290 million [5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: Rmb0.83 - 2024e: Rmb0.83 - 2025e: Rmb1.03 - 2026e: Rmb1.16 [5] Table Turn Trends - **January Performance**: Table turnover was slightly positive month-over-month and flat year-over-year; during the CNY holiday, turnover was down less than 5% compared to CNY 2024 [8] - **Store Network Changes**: - Haidilao: 8 gross openings and 10 closures, resulting in a net decrease of 2 stores - YEAH Qing BBQ: 14 new openings [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16x for 2025 estimated earnings, reflecting weaker consumption sentiment amid macro uncertainties [9] - **Growth Projections**: Projected 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [9] - **Risks to Upside**: Faster macroeconomic recovery, better-than-expected demand recovery, and quicker new store openings [11] - **Risks to Downside**: Slower recovery in table turnover, raw material cost inflation, and delays in new store openings [11] Key Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: - 2023: 15.9 - 2024e: 18.0 - 2025e: 13.6 - 2026e: 12.0 [5] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 60.4% - 2024e: 39.0% - 2025e: 34.7% - 2026e: 29.2% [5] - **Dividend Yield**: - 2024e: 5.0% - 2025e: 6.3% [5] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd is navigating a challenging demand environment but is positioned for potential growth through disciplined investment and operational strategies. The company's financial metrics indicate a cautious but optimistic outlook, with significant upside potential if macroeconomic conditions improve.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on the US economy, particularly focusing on trade with China, Canada, and Mexico [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Implementation**: Tariffs on imports from China have been implemented at a rate of 10%, while those on Canada and Mexico have been delayed. This aligns with baseline assumptions regarding trade policy [6][7]. 2. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts has been adjusted to only one anticipated cut in June 2025, influenced by the recent tariff announcements and inflation concerns [6][9]. 3. **Inflation Outlook**: The imposition of tariffs is expected to create upward pressure on inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts. The Fed's focus has shifted from labor market risks to inflation risks [9][10]. 4. **Quantitative Tightening (QT)**: The timeline for the end of QT has been pushed to June 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach due to the current economic environment [10]. 5. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The January payroll increase of 143,000 is viewed as suppressed by adverse weather conditions, indicating a softer labor market than previously thought [12][13]. 6. **Core CPI Projections**: Core CPI is projected to rise by 0.37% month-over-month in January, with annual increases expected at 3.2%. This is influenced by factors such as wildfires and residual seasonality [21][41]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Indicators**: The ISM manufacturing index has shown signs of stabilization, moving above 50 for the first time in nearly a year, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing [32]. 2. **Small Business Optimism**: The NFIB small business optimism index has returned to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting improved economic expectations among small firms [36]. 3. **Retail Sales Forecast**: A decrease of 0.1% in retail sales is expected for January, primarily due to a decline in auto sales, while control sales are anticipated to rise by 0.3% [47]. 4. **Impact of Wildfires**: The California wildfires are expected to have a temporary impact on goods prices, but this is largely accounted for in the current economic models [21][47]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and the implications of recent policy changes.

7 February 2025 Asia Tech Hardware Asia Tech Hardware: DeepSeek, Tariff... 4Q24 AI names earnings preview Alex Wang, CFA +852 2918 5703 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2918 5303 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com The recent sentiment correction in the AI supply chain comes sooner than we expected for 2H25 (sector outlook). This note discusses the implications of DeepSeek and the U.S. tariff on the supply chain and previews the 4Q24 earnings (late Feb to early Mar) for AI names. We think the DeepS ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** sector, specifically discussing trends observed during the **Chinese New Year (CNY)** holidays in 2025 [1][3]. Key Insights from Developers and Landlords - **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** reported flattish year-over-year (Y/Y) growth in property sales, with variations from "mild Y/Y growth" to a decline in the mid-teens [1][3]. - **Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs)** predominantly experienced a Y/Y decline in sales, with some reporting declines of approximately **30-40%** [1][3]. - For **shopping malls**, landlords noted a mild Y/Y increase in both same-store tenant sales and footfall, with overall tenant sales surging by over **10% Y/Y** [1][3]. Sales Trends and Seasonal Factors - The **CNY period** is traditionally a low season for property sales, and January and February are influenced by project launches [3]. - The **China Index Academy** reported an **8% Y/Y growth** in "28-city primary property sales" during CNY, but this figure may not accurately reflect actual sales due to delays in sales registrations [3]. - Developers indicated that discounts and rebates are still necessary to enhance sell-through rates [3]. Future Outlook - The month of **March** is anticipated to provide a clearer picture of sales sustainability, as the impact of policy easing from September 2024 will have mostly faded, and data will be less affected by public holidays [3]. - The overall estimate for February primary sales is a low single-digit Y/Y decline, similar to January [3]. Performance of Key Companies - **Stock Preferences**: The report highlighted preferences for **China Resources Land** and **China Resources Mixc** as favorable investment options [1][3]. - The report also provided a valuation summary for various companies in the sector, indicating different ratings and price targets [5]. Additional Observations - Luxury retail continues to underperform compared to the mass market, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3]. - The continuity of a moderate recovery in tenant sales during CNY suggests a positive outlook for proxies like **CR Mixc** [3]. Conclusion - The insights from developers and landlords during the CNY period indicate a mixed performance in the China Property sector, with SOEs faring better than POEs. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of sales trends and the overall recovery of the sector.

07 Feb 2025 17:16:11 ET │ 29 pages Global Economics Global Indicators January Chartbook: The World in Pictures CITI'S TAKE V i e w p o i n t | The global services PMI cooled some in January, but it still stands at a solid 52.2 reading, while the global manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1. Global labor markets meanwhile remain fairly tight with unemployment rates in most economies at or even below pre-pandemic levels. Global headline and core inflation have retreated appreciably from cycle highs but are still ...