本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Equity Research China Technology 8 January 2025 China Technology CBO - China Brief Overnight - 1/8/2025 China to expand consumer goods trade-in scheme to boost economic growth; Indonesian e-commerce firm Bukalapak to stop selling physical items on its marketplace amid competition from other platforms; South Korean e-commerce platform Gmarket launches new delivery service to guarantee next-day delivery Our daily product rounds up key stories from the Chinese language m ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 Asia Pacific Equity Research 08 January 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Weichai Power - H/A Breaking news on China IV trade-in policy and breakthroughs in battery and AI-powered robotics innovation ...

Summary of GCL Technology Holdings (3800.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GCL Technology Holdings (3800.HK) - **Industry**: Clean Energy & Technology, specifically in polysilicon production Key Points Share Issuance and Financial Impact - GCL Tech completed the issuance of 1.56 billion new shares at HK$1.0 per share, a 10% discount to the latest closing price, representing 5.48% of the enlarged share capital [1] - Total net proceeds from this issuance amount to HK$1.53 billion, with 60% (~HK$0.92 billion) allocated for overseas capacity expansion and 40% (~HK$0.61 billion) reserved for general working capital [1] Earnings Revision - Following the share enlargement and net proceeds, the 12-month target price has been adjusted from HK$1.2 to HK$1.1, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.7X for 2024E, reflecting a 30% discount to equity value due to a weaker balance sheet compared to peers [2] Investment Thesis - GCL Tech is positioned as a leading polysilicon producer with a unique FBR granular polysilicon technology, allowing it to operate at the lowest end of the industry cost curve [3] - The company aims to increase its market share to 40% by 2030E, up from 16% in 2023, while maintaining more resilient margins compared to its rod silicon peers [3] - However, there are concerns regarding tighter liquidity pressures compared to main solar component peers, which is a critical metric for investors during market downturns [3] Target Price Methodology and Risks - The 12-month target price of HK$1.1 is based on a P/B ratio of 0.7X for 2024E, with key risks including: 1. Fluctuations in polysilicon prices due to unexpected changes in capacity or demand [4] 2. Variability in advancements in FBR technology affecting cost reduction and purity enhancement [4] Financial Projections - Market capitalization is reported at HK$28.7 billion (approximately $3.7 billion) with an enterprise value of HK$42.5 billion (approximately $5.5 billion) [6] - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: Rmb 33,700.5 million - 2024E: Rmb 17,364.4 million - 2025E: Rmb 24,764.8 million - 2026E: Rmb 26,061.9 million [6] Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates - New EPS estimates are as follows: - 2023: Rmb 0.09 - 2024E: Rmb (0.13) - 2025E: Rmb (0.07) - 2026E: Rmb (0.05) [6] Additional Insights - The company is rated as Neutral by Goldman Sachs, indicating a cautious outlook despite its potential for growth in market share and margins [3] - The report highlights the importance of liquidity management in the current market environment, which could impact investor sentiment and stock performance [3] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of GCL Technology Holdings as discussed in the conference call, providing insights into its financial strategies, market positioning, and potential risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Chinese Military Companies and US-China Relations - **Companies**: Tencent (0700.HK) and CATL (300750.SZ) Core Points and Arguments 1. **Inclusion in Military Company List**: On January 6, the US Department of Defense added Tencent and CATL to the Chinese Military Companies list, which now includes 134 companies. This led to a stock price decline of 7% for Tencent and 3% for CATL on January 7, compared to the HSCEI's -1% and CSI 300's +1% [2][3][12] 2. **No Immediate Trading Restrictions**: The inclusion in the Section 1260H list does not impose immediate restrictions on trading securities of these companies. However, if they are added to the OFAC's NS-CMIC list, US persons would be prohibited from purchasing their publicly traded securities [2][6] 3. **Potential Selling Estimates**: If Tencent and CATL were added to the OFAC's NS-CMIC list, it is estimated that there would be US$54 billion of active and US$19 billion of passive selling for Tencent, and US$5 billion and US$1 billion for CATL, respectively [2][6] 4. **Historical Context**: Previous instances of Chinese stocks being added to the Communist Chinese Military Company List saw an aggregate correction of 8% in the first two months, followed by recovery due to strong Southbound buying [2][21] 5. **Market Volatility**: The combination of escalating US-China tensions, tariff uncertainties, and muted policy actions from China suggests a volatile period for Chinese equities until clearer policies are established [2][12] Additional Important Content 1. **US Investor Holdings**: US investors currently hold approximately US$68 billion in Tencent (13.9% of market cap) and US$5 billion in CATL (3% of market cap). If divestment occurs, it could take around 200 days for Tencent and 18 days for CATL, assuming daily selling does not exceed one-third of average daily trading volume [7][10] 2. **Impact of Non-US Investors**: Non-US passive investors may also sell restricted stocks, with an estimated US$5 billion and US$0.6 billion market cap of Tencent and CATL held by non-US ETFs [8] 3. **Domestic Investor Support**: Southbound and domestic Chinese investors are expected to provide capital support if foreign investors divest. Historical data shows that strong domestic buying can offset foreign selling [10][12] 4. **Share Buybacks**: Companies may seek to buy back shares to support stock prices. Tencent had a record buyback of US$193 million on January 7 [11] 5. **Long-term Market Implications**: The addition of Tencent and CATL to the US CMC list highlights the complex state of US-China trade relations, indicating potential for increased friction in capital markets and geopolitics [12][29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications regarding Tencent and CATL's recent designation and its potential impact on the market and investor behavior.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 03:42 PM GMT China – Clean Energy | Asia Pacific Solar Products Price Tracker – Week 2, 2025 Polysilicon prices were stable; N-type Wafer prices rebounded WoW. Cell prices recovered while module prices dropped. Prices of most solar films were stable WoW. EVA and POE resin prices remained flat WoW. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Solar products – Price summary 1/8/2025 Polysilicon (Rmb/kg) Wafer-182mm (Rmb/pc) Wafer-210mm (Rmb/pc) Cell-182mm (Rmb/W) Cell-210mm ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 | 4:24PM HKT China Education 2025 Kickoff: More reasonable valuations, still-robust growth outlook; Buy EDU/TAL We are constructive about the Big Two in the China Education sector, EDU and TAL, into 2025, after a relatively disappointing share price performance in 2024 (EDU -12%/TAL -22%, lagging KWEB +6% and most small-cap education names, Exhibit 1). Despite our largely unchanged profit forecasts for FY25E/26E vs. 1 year ago, share prices have been dr ...

Summary of SICC Co Ltd Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb21,030.1 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb48.94 (as of January 8, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb85.00, indicating a potential upside of 74% from the current price [1][1][1] Key Financial Metrics - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December - **Projected EPS**: - 2023: (0.18) Rmb - 2024: 0.49 Rmb - 2025: 0.70 Rmb - 2026: 0.87 Rmb [1][1][1] - **Revenue Projections**: - 2023: 1,251 million Rmb - 2024: 1,769 million Rmb - 2025: 2,194 million Rmb - 2026: 2,684 million Rmb [1][1][1] - **EBITDA**: - 2023: 131 million Rmb - 2024: 514 million Rmb - 2025: 705 million Rmb - 2026: 748 million Rmb [1][1][1] Industry Insights - **SiC Substrate Pricing**: The market average price for 6-inch SiC substrates has declined to Rmb3,000-3,500 in late 2024, with expectations of a further 5-10% year-over-year decline in 2025 [4][4][4] - **Revenue Contribution**: 8-inch SiC substrates contributed 20% of total revenue during the first three quarters of 2024, with major clients primarily from Europe and Japan [4][4][4] - **Customer Base**: Approximately 40% of revenue comes from global customers, while 60% is from China. Global customers are transitioning to 8-inch substrates faster than Chinese customers [4][4][4] - **Future Capacity**: The company has a total capacity of 400-500k wafers per year (in 6-inch) and plans to migrate its 6-inch capacity to 8-inch to increase output without significant capital expenditure in 2025 [4][4][4] Strategic Developments - **Dual Listing Proposal**: The company is pursuing a dual listing in Hong Kong to support further investments in 8-inch substrate production, indicating a strategic shift away from 6-inch investments [4][4][4] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Assumes a 7.9% cost of equity, a medium-term growth rate of 22.5%, and a terminal growth rate of 7.5% [5][5][5] - **Risks to Upside**: - Lower-than-expected SiC substrate pricing erosion - More qualifications and long-term agreements from global Integrated Device Manufacturers (IDMs) - Faster market share gains over peers [7][7][7] - **Risks to Downside**: - Higher-than-expected SiC substrate pricing erosion - Fewer qualifications and long-term agreements from global IDMs - Slower market share gains over peers [7][7][7] Conclusion SICC Co Ltd is positioned for growth in the semiconductor industry, particularly in SiC substrates, with a strategic focus on expanding its 8-inch production capabilities. The financial outlook is positive, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years, although risks related to pricing and market share dynamics remain.

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property** market, highlighting the ongoing challenges and structural changes expected in 2025 and beyond. Key Points 1. Structural Decline in Real Estate Investment (REI) - A structural decline in REI is anticipated, with projections for 2025E showing REI at **Rmb8.9 trillion**, a **10.5% year-over-year decline** from **Rmb9.9 trillion** in 2024E, which exceeds sales of **Rmb9 trillion** [71][73] - The gap between national transactions and REI is expected to be negative, indicating a significant overhang in the market [71] 2. New Home Supply at Historical Lows - New home supply is projected to be at a **20-year low**, with land sales and new starts down **28% year-over-year** in 2024E [20] - The risk-reward for new builds in Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities is deemed unjustified until home prices stabilize [2][35] 3. Completion and Sales Trends - GFA (Gross Floor Area) completions are expected to decline by **25% in 2024E**, with a milder decline of **13% in 2025E** [46][48] - Total residential sales are forecasted to be **Rmb7.4 trillion** in 2025E, reflecting a **10% year-over-year decline** [18] 4. Policy Impact on Destocking - Renewals of **1 million units** in 297 cities are expected to reduce existing supply and boost one-off demand, potentially clearing **6% of Tier 1 and 2 inventory** [3][54] - A repurchase of idle land worth **Rmb300 billion** could also contribute to destocking efforts [56] 5. Challenges to Price Stabilization - Local fiscal deficits and high reliance on household income pose significant hurdles to price stabilization [6][21] - A **1% decline in home prices** could negate **Rmb3 trillion** in stimulus efforts [6] 6. Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary market accounts for **61% of total sales** in 36 cities, with prices critical for demand-led reflation [7][26] - Secondary sales are expected to increase by **1% year-over-year** to **Rmb7 trillion** in 2025E, despite total new and secondary sales declining by **5% year-over-year** [7][27] 7. Inventory Levels - New home inventory is estimated to be **20 months** for Tier 2 cities and **29 months** for Tier 3 cities by the end of 2025E [66] - The overall inventory is **17% below the peak**, indicating ongoing destocking efforts [66] 8. Economic Indicators - The property sector's reliance on household income is highlighted, with property accounting for **66% of household assets** while households earned only **27% of total income** in 2023 [6] 9. Land Sales and Construction Trends - Land sales are projected to be at a **17-year low**, with a **28% decline** in land area acquired in 2024E [13][20] - New starts are expected to return to levels not seen since **2003/2004**, reflecting a significant contraction in the market [31] 10. Financial Health of Developers - Despite deleveraging efforts, net gearing for listed property names has increased due to equity shrinkage from asset write-offs [41] - The willingness and ability of developers to acquire new land remain low, impacting future supply [35] Conclusion - The China Property market is facing significant challenges, including declining investment, low new home supply, and hurdles to price stabilization. The ongoing policy measures aim to address these issues, but the structural decline in demand and supply dynamics will likely continue to impact the market in the near term.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.7% to performance in 2024, primarily driven by an overweight stance in Industrials which added 1.1%. Stock selection neither helped nor hurt as a -0.8% headwind within Industrials was primarily offset by a 0.6% gain within Financials. Among the largest contributors, underweighting APP alone cost -75 bps of performance. 4Q24: Sector decisions added +1.2% to ...

Industry Overview * **2025 Outlook**: The document highlights that 2025 will be characterized by external uncertainties (tariffs, sanctions) and internal uncertainties (policy, competition). However, internet companies are expected to navigate these challenges through AI strategies, overseas expansion, and capital returns. * **Key Themes**: The document emphasizes the importance of AI, overseas expansion, and capital return as key strategies for internet companies to thrive in 2025. * **Market Outlook**: The document provides a bullish outlook for the internet and other services sector, with sector revenue expected to grow by 9% YoY and operating profit by 16% YoY in the base case scenario. Company Analysis * **Tencent (0700.HK)**: Tencent is identified as the top pick for the internet and other services sector. The document highlights Tencent's strong position in social and gaming, as well as its potential for growth through AI applications and capital management. * **Trip.com (TCOM.O)**: Trip.com is considered a preferred consumption recovery play with overseas opportunities. The document notes Trip.com's strong position in the online travel agency (OTA) market and its potential for growth through overseas expansion. * **Meituan (3690.HK)**: Meituan is also identified as a preferred consumption recovery play with overseas opportunities. The document highlights Meituan's strong position in the local services market and its potential for growth through overseas expansion. * **Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N)**: Alibaba is rated equal-weight due to intense e-commerce and search competition. The document notes Alibaba's strong position in the e-commerce market and its potential for growth through AI and cloud computing. * **JD.com (JD.O)**: JD.com is rated equal-weight due to intense e-commerce and search competition. The document highlights JD.com's strong position in the e-commerce market and its potential for growth through AI and logistics. * **Kuaishou (1024.HK)**: Kuaishou is rated equal-weight due to intense e-commerce and search competition. The document notes Kuaishou's strong position in the short video market and its potential for growth through overseas expansion. * **Baidu (BIDU.O)**: Baidu is rated equal-weight due to intense e-commerce and search competition. The document highlights Baidu's strong position in the search engine market and its potential for growth through AI applications. Valuation and Shareholder Returns * **Valuation**: The document provides valuation metrics for various companies in the internet and other services sector, including market capitalization, price-to-earnings ratio, and price-to-book ratio. * **Shareholder Returns**: The document provides information on shareholder returns for various companies, including total capital return, dividend yield, and share buyback programs. Risks and Considerations * **External Uncertainties**: The document highlights external uncertainties such as tariffs, sanctions, and policy changes as potential risks for the internet and other services sector. * **Internal Uncertainties**: The document also notes internal uncertainties such as competition and regulatory changes as potential risks for the sector. * **Market Volatility**: The document acknowledges that market volatility can impact the performance of internet and other services companies. Conclusion The document provides a comprehensive analysis of the internet and other services sector, highlighting key themes, company analysis, valuation, and risks. The document offers valuable insights for investors looking to understand the potential opportunities and challenges in the sector.