本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 05:01 AM GMT Year-Ahead Outlook | North America Telecom & Cable Services – Investor Presentation This slide deck accompanies our 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook on Telecom & Cable Services. See here for full details: Year-Ahead Outlook: Telecom & Cable Services – Bringing It All Together (16 Dec 2024). We are also publishing updated FYBR and pro forma VZ/FYBR estimates. | M 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Small Cap Core Small Cap Core Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap Core managers led the Russell 2000 by +0.7% in 2024 (12.2% vs. 11.5%), net of fees. Despite outperforming by +1.0% in December, managers lagged the benchmark by -0.3% in 4Q. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.3% to performance in 2024 driven primarily by an ov ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 V i e w p o i n t | 08 Jan 2025 08:54:04 ET │ 13 pages US Semiconductors November Sales Above Our Forecast and Seasonality. Raise C24 Semi Sales to Up 18% YoY. Expect 2025 Semi Sales of Up 9% YoY. CITI'S TAKE On Monday, the SIA announced November monthly sales of $59.0 billion (up 10.5% MoM), above seasonality of up 1.3% MoM and our estimate of $54.1 billion (up 1.2% MoM) due to stronger DRAM and Flash sales. We raise our 2024 semi sales forecast from up 17% YoY to up ...

Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com We launch a new monthly series to timely report Chinese automation companies' orders in the most recent month. Complementing the Monthly Barometer, where broad industry indicators are presented for a comprehensive view, the Pulse Check exclusively uses the high-frequency data and comments from industry players to show trends most ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research U.S. Transportation 2025 Outlook: Gradual Cycle Turn Points To Modest Growth; Focus On Idiosyncratic Drivers We expect a muted freight backdrop and gradual cycle turn We are adjusting our 4Q forecasts and also lowering our 2025 EPS estimates for the railroads and also LTL names ODFL, SAIA, and XPO. Our new EPS estimates for both groups reflect the expectation of less growth in carloads / shipments and more modest margin expansion. The ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Technology Hardware [3][4] - **Market Position**: The industry view is currently rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley [1] Core Themes and Insights - **AI Hardware Supply Chain**: Emphasis on positioning within the AI hardware supply chain for 2025 [3] - **AI PCs**: Anticipated to drive the next phase of growth in the PC market [4] - **Cyclical Components**: Signs of a potential turnaround in cyclical components [4] - **Cooling Technologies**: Liquid cooling is in the early adoption phase, while immersion cooling is expected to take longer to gain traction [4] - **Beneficiaries and Valuation**: Discussion on beneficiaries in GB200/GB300 and the sustainability of re-rating based on valuation multiples [4] Key Stocks Mentioned - **Beneficial Companies**: - Hon Hai - FII - AVC - Delta - Lenovo - Wistron - Wiwynn - Giga-Byte - Quanta - Lotes - GCE - Asustek - Yageo [4] Market Dynamics - **Tariff Implications**: Potential tariffs on Mexico and China could significantly impact final assembly operations, with some companies experiencing rush orders for PCs [4] - **AI PC Definition**: Clarification on what constitutes an AI PC and its use cases [4] - **Catalysts for Growth**: Identification of key catalysts over the next 12 months and the main beneficiaries [4] Supply Chain Insights - **ABF Substrate**: Expected oversupply to persist until 2025, leading to further margin pressure [4] - **MLCC Inventory**: Anticipated end of inventory digestion, with a focus on recovery in end-demand [4] - **Cloud & Edge AI Impact**: Inquiry into how Cloud & Edge AI will influence the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for MLCC [4] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: Detailed financial metrics for various companies, including EPS, P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and EV/EBITDA [6] - **Market Capitalization**: Companies listed with their respective market caps, trading prices, and projected earnings for 2024 and 2025 [6] Additional Considerations - **Analyst Disclosures**: Important disclosures regarding analyst certifications and potential conflicts of interest are noted [2] - **Research Use**: The document is intended solely for internal research use by Shanghai Xinyu Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Greater China Technology Hardware industry and its key players.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research China Internet Sector Our updated thoughts into 2025 Internet sector outperformed in 2024 KWEB rose 8% (HSI +18%) in 2024 with stronger performance in Q4 amid government stimulus hope. Our observations: 1) bottom-up drivers continued to deliver significant alpha, looking at the strong performance of Trip.com/Meituan/Tencent/Bili vs PDD/VIPS; 2) valuations found support at 5-6x PE (eg, Hello Group/Weibo) as long as company earnings sta ...

Summary of Midea Group Co Ltd. Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: Midea Group Co Ltd. - **Ticker**: 000333.SZ, 000333 CS - **Market Cap**: Rmb534,550.9 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb75.93 (as of January 7, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb94.00 - **52-Week Range**: Rmb83.67 - Rmb54.11 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Rmb2,164 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Industry View**: In-Line Key Points and Arguments 1. **Share Price Outlook**: The share price is expected to rise relative to the country index over the next 45 days, indicating a positive short-term outlook for Midea [2][5][6] 2. **Consumer Goods Trade-in Program**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a 2025 consumer goods trade-in program, which includes an increase in subsidized air conditioning units. This is expected to benefit leading home appliance companies like Midea [2] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: Midea-A/H shares are trading at approximately 13x 2025 estimated P/E, which is slightly lower than Midea-A's average since 2017 but higher than Midea-H's average since its listing in September 2024. This valuation is considered attractive given an estimated low-teen percentage EPS CAGR over 2024-2026 [2][6] 4. **Acquisition Plans**: Midea Group is in the process of acquiring a 58% equity stake in Toshiba Elevator (China) Co., Ltd. and Toshiba Elevator (Shenyang) Co., Ltd. through its subsidiary, Hainan Midea Building Technology Co., Ltd. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance Midea's market position [4] 5. **Earnings Visibility**: The valuation methodology applied includes a sum of the parts (SOTP) approach, with home appliances valued at Rmb88/share based on a 2024 estimated P/E of 16x, reflecting high earnings visibility and potential upside from better growth in the To-business segment [9] 6. **Risks**: - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected rebound in the Chinese property market, less competition from key competitors, and successful M&A transactions [13] - **Downside Risks**: Fiercer competition, unfavorable foreign exchange movements, raw material price changes, and unsuccessful M&A transactions [13] Additional Important Information - **Analyst Certification**: Analysts Hildy Ling and Lillian Lou certify that their views about Midea Group are accurately expressed and have not received compensation for specific recommendations [18] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Midea Group within the last 12 months, which may present a conflict of interest [20][21] - **Market Context**: The research is part of a broader analysis of the China/Hong Kong consumer sector, indicating that Midea is positioned within a competitive landscape that includes other major players [6][69] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the research call regarding Midea Group, highlighting its market position, strategic initiatives, and potential risks and opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Indian Consumer Sector - **Current Situation**: The Indian consumer sector has experienced a significant decline in earnings over the past two quarters due to urban mass consumption slowdown, input cost inflation, and competitive disruptions in categories like paints and grocery retailing [1][4][27]. Core Insights - **Urban Mass Consumption Slowdown**: The slowdown is attributed to high food inflation and a decrease in unsecured consumer credit, impacting low-income urban consumers. Extreme weather conditions and low wedding dates in the first half of FY25 have also contributed to this decline [3][28][29]. - **Resilience of Affluent Urban Consumption**: Affluent consumer segments, particularly in categories like jewelry and travel, have shown resilience and are expected to continue strong growth into 2025 [2]. - **Signs of Recovery**: Recent updates indicate a recovery in urban discretionary consumption, particularly in sectors like Quick Service Restaurants (QSR), footwear, and eyewear [3][27]. Input Cost Dynamics - **Inflation in Key Inputs**: There has been a sharp rise in input costs for palm oil, tea, coffee, and cocoa, adversely affecting gross margins for companies like GCPL and Tata Consumer. These costs are expected to taper off as companies implement price hikes [4][12][13]. - **Impact on Gross Margins**: Companies are facing gross margin pressures due to the lag in passing on price increases to consumers. GCPL and Britannia are particularly affected due to their reliance on palm oil [14][17]. Competitive Landscape - **Increased Competition**: The entry of new players, such as Birla Paints, has intensified competition in the paint industry, which is expected to impact market leaders like Asian Paints. The grocery retail sector is also facing heightened competition from quick commerce players [5][7]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: Birla Paints aims to capture a high single-digit market share by 2025, increasing competitive pressure on incumbents [5]. Stock Recommendations - **Top Picks**: GCPL is highlighted as a top pick due to expected recovery in margins and mid-teens EPS growth in FY26. Other recommended stocks include Marico, which is expected to deliver double-digit revenue growth, and Trent and Metro, which are seen as structural growth companies [9]. - **QSR Recovery**: The QSR industry is anticipated to see gradual recovery, with companies like Sapphire and Westlife expected to improve their same-store sales growth [9][33]. Additional Insights - **Food Inflation Trends**: Food inflation has been a significant drag on urban disposable income, but it is expected to moderate in the coming months, potentially aiding recovery in consumer spending [28][31]. - **One-off Factors**: The easing of one-off factors such as extreme weather and low wedding dates is likely to support a rebound in consumer discretionary spending [29][35]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Indian consumer sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document focuses on the **US Inflation Monitor** and provides insights into the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** for December 2024, highlighting trends in core and headline inflation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Core CPI Expectations**: Core CPI is expected to rise by **0.26% month-over-month (m/m)** in December, translating to a **3.3% year-over-year (y/y)** increase, which is **5 basis points (bp)** lower than November's figure [6][17][36]. 2. **Headline CPI Increase**: The headline CPI is projected to increase by **0.37% m/m** and **2.9% y/y**, driven by seasonally adjusted energy inflation [6][17][36]. 3. **Core Goods Inflation**: Core goods inflation is decelerating but remains positive, with an expected increase of **0.11%** in December, down from previous months [9][12]. 4. **Rents and Housing**: Rents are expected to accelerate, with both primary residence rents and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) projected to rise, although they will remain below the underlying trend for the year [7][12]. 5. **Core Services**: Core services inflation, excluding housing, is anticipated to decrease, particularly in categories like hotels and airfares, which are expected to show a deceleration [7][16]. 6. **Energy Prices**: Seasonally adjusted retail gasoline prices are expected to increase, contributing to the overall rise in headline inflation despite a nominal drop in observed gasoline prices [31][32]. 7. **Car Prices**: The relationship between used and new car prices is highlighted, with expectations of deceleration in both categories due to fading hurricane effects [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Seasonal Factors**: Seasonal adjustments may lead to downward bias in December's inflation readings, particularly in housing-related metrics [24][25]. 2. **PCE Implications**: The forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is set at **0.21% m/m**, indicating a stronger performance compared to the previous month [36][37]. 3. **Long-term Inflation Trends**: The annualized 3-month pace for core PCE is expected to remain stable at **2.4%**, with projections indicating a gradual decrease in inflation rates over the next few years [38][39]. 4. **Market Volatility**: The document notes ongoing volatility in shelter costs, with expectations of short-term acceleration in rents despite a longer-term downward trend [12][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding inflation trends in the US economy as discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview for stakeholders and investors.