Summary of J.P. Morgan's North America Commodities Research Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Commodities - **Date**: February 20, 2025 Key Points Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand increased by **1.4 million barrels per day (mbd)** in February, averaging **103.4 mbd** through February 19, 2025, which is **400 kbd** short of the projected **1.8 mbd** rise for the month [5][6][12] - OPEC is considering delaying monthly supply increases scheduled for April, indicating a cautious approach due to anticipated growth in non-OPEC+ supply [5][6][12] - The Ukrainian drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station is expected to reduce crude oil flow from Kazakhstan by **30%**, leading to a **360 kbd** drop in Kazakh oil exports [5][6][12] Inventory and Stock Analysis - CPC crude stocks have remained steady at **2.5 million barrels (mb)** since February 11, 2025, despite the disruption [6][12] - OECD commercial oil stocks recorded a net draw of **4.5 mb** in the second week of February [6][12] - The rerouting of Kazakh crude oil to Baltic Sea ports is expected to draw down Europe’s commercial crude storage by **10.5 mb** over a **60-day period** [5][6][12] Regional Insights - In the U.S., diesel cracks have retreated from recent highs due to lower product exports to Latin America, while gasoline consumption is expected to rise from **8.3 mbd** to above **9 mbd** during the peak travel season [5][6][12] - Four economies reported oil consumption statistics, with notable declines in Portugal and France, while India showed a significant increase of **170 kbd** year-over-year in January [5][6][12] Price Movements - Oil prices are on track to end the week higher, with global crude prices rising by **$1.60-1.80 per barrel** since last Friday's close, driven by supply uncertainty and frigid weather in the U.S. [5][6][12] - Brent crude has advanced to nearly **$77 per barrel**, aligning with the fair value estimate for February [5][6][12] Future Projections - The ongoing cold weather in the U.S. and increased industrial activity in China are expected to help close the gap in oil demand projections for February [5][6][12] - Gasoline cracks are projected to average **$22 per barrel** in Q2 2025, up **$2 per barrel** from current levels [5][6][12] Additional Insights - The Atyrau-Samara pipeline has a spare capacity of **157 kbd**, while the Kazakh-China pipeline has a total capacity of **400 kbd**, indicating potential for rerouting crude oil flows [5][6][12] - Despite the BTC pipeline having considerable spare capacity, tanker bottlenecks in the Caspian Sea may restrict substantial transfers [5][6][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan North America Commodities Research call, focusing on oil demand, supply dynamics, inventory levels, and price movements.

Equity Research China Technology 20 February 2025 China Technology CBO - China Brief Overnight - 2/20/2025 DeepSeek denies speculation that it is considering outside funding; Five ministries issue three-year plan to promote consumption of automobiles, electronic products and home appliances; BYD was the best-selling EV brand in major Latin American markets in 2024 Our daily product rounds up key stories from the Chinese language media overnight, focusing on developments in the technology space. See our late ...

Price Target BABA 104.00 USD 9988.HK 102.00 HKD Alibaba Q3: All-In on AI AI-libaba? Alibaba's Q3 results were solid… though probably a sideshow compared with guidance for massive AI-related capex, Cloud revenue acceleration "driven by AI", and pursuit of AGI(!). Group revenue of RMB280bn was in-line with our estimate, and slightly ahead of consensus (RMB281bn and RMB277bn), while RMB54.9bn of adjusted EBITA split our estimate and consensus (RMB56.5bn and RMB53.6bn). 9.4% CMR growth (to RMB101bn) was slightl ...

ab 20 February 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China 360 The rise of solo living; who gains? Recent data highlights the demographic challenges China is facing China saw 9.54m births in 2024, vs. 9.02m in 2023, likely due to COVID and a Dragon Year boost, but the overall population fell for the third year in a row and new marriages dropped to new low (6.1m). Against this backdrop, we expect single-person households - the fastest-growing type of household - to keep increasing. This shift ...

V i e w p o i n t | 20 Feb 2025 13:46:23 ET │ 13 pages China Humanoid Robot What's New from China Industrials – AI and Humanoid Supply Chain Tour | The Humanoid Robot We Know CITI'S TAKE During our trip on 18-19 Feb, we visited three humanoid robot-related companies – Orbbec (688322.SS), Dobot (2432.HK), and UBTECH Robotics (9880.HK) – and had insightful discussions with them. We summarize the key points and stock implications as below. We also list (potential) humanoid robot supply chain companies in Figur ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on the App Store and smartphone demand, particularly iPhone and notebook builds in North America. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **App Store Revenue Growth**: - App Store net revenues are growing at 9.3% year-over-year (Y/Y) month-to-date (MTD) as of February 17, 2025, which is a deceleration from January's growth of 18% Y/Y, attributed to tougher year-over-year comparisons [2][1] - Major markets like China (+5.2% Y/Y MTD), Japan (+13.3% Y/Y MTD), and the US (+6.6% Y/Y MTD) are all experiencing deceleration compared to January [2][1] - Gaming revenue is declining by 1% Y/Y MTD, contrasting with a 14% growth in January, while non-gaming revenue is growing at 22% Y/Y MTD, indicating a shift in consumer spending [2][1] 2. **iPhone Build Forecast**: - The forecast for C1Q25 iPhone builds remains unchanged at 48 million units, flat Y/Y, with an expected shipment of 51 million units, aligning closely with the forecast of 50.5 million units [3][1] - Emerging tailwinds for iPhone demand include increased visibility at the assembly side and national subsidies in China, which may lead to upward revisions in iPhone builds [3][1] 3. **Notebook ODM Builds**: - Notebook ODM builds for C1Q25 are projected at 28.9 million units, reflecting a 1% Y/Y increase, which is 9 points above normal March quarter seasonality [10][1] - This translates to an expected 42.8 million notebook shipments, slightly above the current forecast of 42.5 million units [10][1] 4. **Cloud Capex Tracker**: - The Cloud Capex Tracker indicates a consistent 32% Y/Y growth for calendar year 2025, unchanged from previous forecasts [8][1] 5. **Apple Retail Store Status**: - As of February 19, 2025, 522 out of 525 Apple retail stores are open globally, indicating a 99% operational rate [45][1] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Electronics Engagement**: - There is a notable bifurcation in consumer hardware engagement, with Garmin's MAUs growing by 21% Y/Y, while GoPro, Sonos, and Cricut are seeing declines in MAUs, indicating challenges in the consumer electronics sector [10][1] 2. **Job Postings in Consulting**: - IBM Consulting job postings have shown a recent uptick, but overall postings are still down 32% from the end of the previous quarter, suggesting a cautious outlook for consulting revenue [10][1] 3. **Taiwan Suppliers Monthly Sales**: - Sales at Apple's Taiwanese supply chain partners grew by 14.5% Y/Y in January, although this is below the trailing two-year historical seasonality for the month [28][1] 4. **iPad Build Estimates**: - The forecast for iPad builds in March is estimated at 9.5 million units, which is a 17% Y/Y decline [38][1] 5. **Lead Time Tracking for iPhones**: - Lead times for the iPhone 16 series are comparable to previous models, indicating stable demand post-launch [60][1] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the IT hardware industry, particularly focusing on Apple's performance and market dynamics.

Summary of Taiwan Humanoid Robot Supply Chain Research Industry Overview - The Taiwan humanoid robot supply chain is primarily focused on manufacturing components such as cables and reducers, with key players including BizLink, Sinbon, and HiWin [2][4][17] - The ecosystem is rapidly evolving, driven by established companies and innovative startups, particularly in the U.S. and China [5][6] Key Companies and Their Positions - **Sinbon (3023 TT, OW)**: - Strength in incubating high-potential startups, developing projects with clients like Figure AI and Agility [4] - Expected to start small-volume shipments in 2025, with modest revenue exposure (<1%) initially [4] - **BizLink (3665 TT, OW)**: - Involved in humanoid robot projects through ties with a major U.S. EV maker [4] - Competitive edge due to proximity to humanoid robot startups in California [4] - **HiWin (2049 TT, UW)**: - Currently has 7% revenue exposure to industrial robots but lacks confirmed projects in humanoid robotics [4] - Expected solid orders for semiconductor equipment benefiting from TSMC's localized supply chain strategy [4] Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot market is characterized by high customization, leading to a high-mix, low-volume service model [17][19] - Taiwanese suppliers benefit from a strong semiconductor and AI ecosystem, particularly with Nvidia's platforms [17][18] Opportunities - Taiwanese supply chain advantages include: - Familiarity with Nvidia's platforms for system integration [17] - High precision and strong R&D support during product development [2][17] Challenges - Higher production costs compared to Chinese manufacturers due to smaller manufacturing scale [20] - Lack of comprehensive policy support for the humanoid robot industry in Taiwan, contrasting with initiatives in China [20][21] Production Plans and Specifications - Tesla plans to produce "several thousand" units of its Optimus robot in 2025, while Unitree Technology produced 1,000 Agibots in 2024 [5] - Agility Robotics' Digit is already implemented in logistics but lacks clear production unit numbers [5] Conclusion - The Taiwanese humanoid robot supply chain presents both opportunities and challenges, with companies like Sinbon and BizLink positioned favorably for growth, while HiWin faces hurdles due to a lack of confirmed projects [2][4][20]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Research Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil Markets - **Date**: February 20, 2025 Key Points and Arguments U.S.-Iran Relations and Oil Production - The U.S. and Iran have a long history of escalating tensions, particularly since the Islamic Revolution, impacting oil prices and the U.S. economy [2][3] - The Biden administration initially relaxed sanctions on Iran due to high energy prices but faced criticism from Trump, who advocated for a return to strict sanctions [9][12] - Iranian crude oil exports increased from 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in 2020 to over 1.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2024 [9] - Forecasts suggest Iranian crude production will remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels [8] JCPOA and Future Negotiations - The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is set to expire in October 2025, raising questions about future agreements [8][11] - Both the U.S. and Iran have signaled a willingness to negotiate, with potential for a new nuclear agreement [11][15] - Trump's administration may disrupt up to 1 mbd of Iranian oil flows through sanctions targeting Chinese terminals and state-owned enterprises [9] Economic Conditions in Iran - Iran is facing severe economic challenges, including high inflation rates between 30-55% annually and significant currency depreciation [12] - The Iranian government, under President Masoud Pezeshkian, is seeking to stabilize the economy and re-engage with the West for sanctions relief [15] Geopolitical Shifts in the Gulf - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have shifted their approach to Iran, engaging diplomatically amid doubts about U.S. security commitments [26][28] - The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, is significant for regional stability and economic transformation [28][29] Inflation and Economic Impact - U.S. inflation has rebounded, complicating the economic landscape for the Trump administration, which may affect oil prices and sanctions strategy [30][32] - The cost of living crisis could exacerbate inflation through higher oil prices, impacting Trump's priorities [32] Oil Supply and Demand Forecasts - Global oil demand is projected to increase, with total oil demand expected to reach 104.0 mbd in 2025 [41] - Total oil supply is forecasted to be 105.3 mbd in 2025, indicating a potential oversupply situation [41] Price Forecasts - J.P. Morgan forecasts Brent crude prices to average $73 per barrel in 2025, with WTI prices averaging $69 per barrel [47] Additional Important Content - The geopolitical landscape is changing, with the potential for new alliances and shifts in oil supply dynamics as countries in the Gulf pursue economic diversification [27][29] - The impact of sanctions and negotiations on oil exports will be closely monitored, as the situation evolves with the upcoming U.S. elections and international diplomatic efforts [22][24]

Globalizer | The Globalizer A "Made in China 2025" Rally? You're reading the Globalizer, offering a recap of Citi's leading research and highlighting key topics. This week, we explain why we expect a "Made in China 2025" rally. We explore our golden rules for investing in European telecoms. Plus more insights from the week at Citi. Bearing Fruits from "Made in China in 2025" Macro-to-Micro The HSII has surged 37% from its January trough, spurred by AI and DeepSeek catalysts as well as Xi's meeting with tech ...

20 February 2025 Global Semiconductors & Hardware China Smartphone Tracker (Dec 2024): Stimulus helping demand & especially Chinese OEMs Mark Li +852 2918 5752 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 212 756 4403 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Sara Russo +44 207 544 1792 sara.russo@bernsteinsg.com Aleksander Peterc +33 1 57 29 45 25 aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 212 969 1518 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Please download our smartphone monthly tracker data from here. Dec shipm ...