更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 4:16AM GMT Multi-Industry Heatmap: 4Q24 so far Our Heatmap tracks sequential earnings acceleration/deceleration across various end markets. We are entering the final stage of 4Q24 season, with c.60% of our coverage and c.30% of our globally tracked companies now having reported. It is so far a strong season for our coverage and this week we continued to see solid beats on orders and sales. While most companies are beating on adj EBITA, margins are in line with ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductors, specifically focusing on the MCU (Microcontroller Unit) market - **Market Performance**: The China MCU market experienced a revenue decline of 14% in 2024, which is less severe compared to the global MCU market's 19% decline. This is attributed to an earlier correction in the Chinese market starting mid-2022, while the global peak occurred in March 2023 [4][5] Key Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - Local players in the China MCU market are expected to continue gaining market share in 2025, despite foreign companies implementing "China for China" strategies [5] - Pricing pressure remains significant for foreign MCU players, with STMicroelectronics' 32-bit MCU pricing dropping by 3% to Rmb8.15, while Gigadevice's pricing remained stable at Rmb6.1, narrowing the premium from 61% in October 2024 to 34% [3][5] - Demand for home appliances has decreased compared to Q4 2024, while consumer electronics demand was strong prior to the Chinese New Year due to government subsidies [3] - **Future Expectations**: - The expectation is that local MCU companies will maintain their competitive edge as foreign partnerships take time to ramp up and cost advantages may not be realized until early 2026 [5] - Analysts have turned positive on the China MCU market since November 2024, indicating a potential recovery [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Preferred Stocks**: - Espressif (688018.SS) is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its edge AI opportunities and competitive RISC-V MCU offerings [5] - Nuvoton (4919.TW) is also favored due to its new BMC progress and overall MCU market bottoming [5] - Sino Wealth (300327.SZ) is rated Equal-weight amid intense competition in AMOLED driver ICs, but with improving demand for MCU and BMIC [5] - GigaDevice (603986.SS) is rated Equal-weight based on fair valuation [5] Additional Considerations - **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence in China's economy showed signs of recovery in December 2024, which may influence future spending in the semiconductor sector [14] - **Capex Trends**: Leading MCU companies are expected to lower their capital expenditures in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a cautious approach to investment amid market uncertainties [18] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Sustained MCU upcycle and faster localization in China could lead to significant market gains [33][41] - Increased traction in automotive and BMC business could enhance margins [42] - **Downside Risks**: - A potential early end to the MCU upcycle with severe pricing erosion could negatively impact market dynamics [33][41] - Slower-than-expected localization and intensified competition may lead to margin contractions [41][42] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the MCU market dynamics, company-specific insights, and potential risks and opportunities within the Greater China semiconductor industry.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 17, 2025 10:13 PM GMT Global Economic Thematic M Global Foundation Multipolar World: Trade Almanac As geopolitics sharpen the focus on supply chains, we introduce a trade database that maps supply chains across sectors, products, and geographies. Using our interactive models, users can pull extensive trade data to track flows over time. Alongside the publication of Multipolar World: Supply Chain Strain, we introduce the Trade Almanac – an interactive trade database that ...

Summary of Japan Equity Strategy & Thematic Research Industry and Company Focus - **Industry**: Japanese Stock Market - **Company**: UBS Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of US Tariff Policy**: - US President Trump signed executive orders for increased tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, with additional tariffs on steel and aluminum products. Japan's steel and aluminum exports to the US are only 0.05% of GDP, indicating minimal impact from these tariffs [1][9][10]. - Japan's average tariff rate is 3.7%, comparable to the US's 3.3%, suggesting that Japan may not be significantly affected by the tariff policies [10]. 2. **Japanese Stock Performance**: - The TOPIX index has been flat year-to-date, underperforming major European, US, and Asian stock indices. This underperformance may reflect excessive pessimism regarding the impact of US tariffs [3][17][18]. - Corporate earnings are on track, and the negative assessments regarding US tariffs may be overly pessimistic [3][17]. 3. **Sector-Specific Concerns**: - Export sectors, particularly autos and machinery, are likely to be affected by global economic impacts of tariffs and non-tariff barriers [4][24]. - Trading houses, wholesalers, and automobiles have shown noticeable underperformance, indicating reliance on overseas demand [17]. 4. **Domestic Demand Drivers**: - An inflationary shift due to Japan-specific wage increases and corporate reforms may drive Japanese stocks. The results of the Shunto (spring wage negotiations) in March and corporate reform trends ahead of full-year earnings results in May are expected to act as catalysts [24][25]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Expectations**: - The analysis indicates that the impact of US tariff policy is not directly reflected in the market, while inflation expectations have peaked, and interest rate drivers have increased [25]. - There is potential for sector rotation from overseas demand-related sectors to domestic demand-driven sectors, suggesting a shift in investment focus [30]. Other Important Insights - **Global Context**: For European and Chinese stocks, factors such as a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and AI-related expectations are currently more influential than tariff concerns [24]. - **Crowding Scores**: UBS crowding scores for Japanese stocks have shown slight recovery after a decline, indicating potential shifts in investor sentiment [29]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the resilience of the Japanese stock market amidst global tariff challenges, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and corporate reforms as key drivers for future performance.

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - A Capitalizing on new opportunities amid core business turnaround: raise PT with humanoid bot breakthrough Hengli's stock surged by the daily limit of 10% today, while the CSI300 rema ...

+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 10:12AM HKT iFlytek (002230.SZ): DeepSeek on iFlytek open platform; Spark X1, Deep reasoning model launched; Neutral iFlytek launched its first deep reasoning model Spark X1 in Jan 2025 and upgraded version of Spark LLM (Large Language Model) V4.0 Turbo post the launch of Spark V4.0 Turbo in Oct 2024 (link). Management h ...

Equity Research U.S. Multi-Industry 17 February 2025 U.S. Multi-Industry Whose numbers look very 2H- loaded? RRX (our EPS ests. are below the Street), LII (our EPS ests. are above the Street), VNT screen as most at risk. VRT, ROP, MMM screen as being least at risk for 2H loading dynamics in 2025 (among Dec. year-end companies) For our thoughts ahead of our 2025 Industrials Select Conference, please see our note here. For a summary of the companies that will be attending our conference, please see our Compan ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 A c t i o n | 17 Feb 2025 10:44:22 ET │ 13 pages Shuanghuan Drive (002472.SZ) Solid Fundamental + Humanoid Robot Optionality; Raise TP to Rmb42.0 and Reiterate Buy CITI'S TAKE While we keep our 2025E earnings estimate unchanged, we raise our TP of Shuanghuan by 50% to Rmb42.0 as we roll over the EPS base from 2024 to 2025 (2024 preliminary results were released on 20 Jan) and apply a higher P/E multiple (from 23x to 28x) to reflect not only solid core business growth (primarily ...

We re-estimate economic exposures to critical import tariffs to account for global supply chains. While Korea is the Emerging Asian economy most vulnerable to auto tariffs, others could catch up in terms of overall exposure if tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals materialise. US President Donald Trump has provided an update on his plans to impose import tariffs on autos from all trade partners: "We are going to do that on around April 2."1 If so, this would be the second of the product-specific tar ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 New narrative 2: Synergies between DeepSeek and China's spark of innovation Domestic LLM DeepSeek has again piqued global investor interest in Chinese innovation. We expect China's capital markets to play a bigger role in supporting technological innovation and industrial transformation/upgrades. The broader tech sector's share of overall A-share market capitalisation has risen over the past decade to reach 21% to date. We note that sectors more correlated wi ...