shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： First Published: 26 Nov 2024 13:27 UTC Completion Date: 26 Nov 2024 13:27 UTC Global Autos Global Autos: Tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports to the US? Keep calm and carry on! shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Stephen Reitman +44 20 7762 5535 stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929) Overweight 1929.HK, 1929 HK 1H in line; quarter to date trend improving; maintain OW shuinu9870 Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1HFY25 (ending Sep-24) results with sales/earnings down 20%/44% yoy, in line with preliminary announcements (sales/earnings down 18-22%/42-46%) on 22 October. This weak result ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： FICC Research Credit Research 26 November 2024 China Property 10 takeaways from expert call shuinu9870 We turn more skeptical on sustainability of new home sales after the call and we believe policy delivery is the key. We maintain the VNKRLE '27s and '29s at UW on unclear repayment path. We think it is premature to tur ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly the upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** scheduled for December 12, 2023, which will set the economic priorities for 2025 [10][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are likely to maintain the "around 5%" target for real GDP growth in 2025, with the target for 2024 appearing achievable due to policy efforts since mid-year [10][14][15]. 2. **Inflation and Deflation**: Ending deflation is not expected to be a priority. The current policy system lacks a designated ministry for price stability, and the best outcome may be a focus on stabilizing overall price levels [15][17]. 3. **Reactive Policy Mode**: The policy shift observed since September is real but does not indicate a move towards a proactive policy mode. Policymakers are showing urgency to address economic slowdown but are unlikely to adopt a more aggressive stance [17][21]. 4. **External Uncertainties**: Elevated uncertainties regarding external factors, such as US tariffs, may limit clarity for policymakers. The CEWC is expected to highlight these risks without providing specific reaction plans [19][53]. 5. **Monetary Policy Constraints**: The supportive monetary policy stance is anticipated to continue, with expectations of 50 basis points rate cuts in 2025. The current net interest margin (NIM) is at an all-time low of 1.53%, which may constrain monetary policy [22][32]. 6. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: A supportive fiscal policy tone is expected, with a projected general government deficit of approximately RMB 11.6 trillion for 2025, an increase from RMB 8.96 trillion in 2024. This could lead to a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP [33][34]. 7. **Consumer Stimulus Initiatives**: There is a consensus that fiscal stimulus will focus more on consumption in 2025, with potential areas for funding including trade-in programs, childbirth subsidies, and targeted cash transfers [37][38]. 8. **Property Market Support**: The housing policy aims to stabilize the market, with government buybacks seen as an effective tool to address excess supply. However, the balance between funding support and moral hazard remains a challenge [48][49]. 9. **Response to US Tariffs**: The CEWC is likely to reiterate the commitment to opening up and may respond symbolically to US tariffs, but no concrete plans are expected. The focus will remain on boosting domestic demand in light of external pressures [53][55]. Additional Important Insights - **Local Government Incentives**: The effectiveness of policy easing may depend on local governments' willingness to implement central directives, which has historically varied [20]. - **Economic Diplomacy**: The US tariff threats could reshape China's trade relations, potentially expanding trade negotiations with other partners [55]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Key areas to watch include the implementation of announced policies, the impact of monetary easing, and the effectiveness of consumption support measures as 2025 approaches [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between domestic policies and external challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call involved Workday, with key executives including CEO Carl Eschenbach, CFO Zane Rowe, Co-President Doug Robinson, and Chief Product Officer David Somers participating in the discussion [1][2]. Financial Performance - Workday reported a solid Q3 performance with subscription revenue growth of 16%, reaching $1.959 billion, and non-GAAP operating margins of 26% [2][10]. - Total revenue for Q3 was $2.160 billion, also reflecting a growth of 16% [10]. - U.S. revenue totaled $1.62 billion, while international revenue was $537 million, both growing at 16% [10]. - The twelve-month subscription revenue backlog (CRPO) was $6.98 billion, increasing by 15%, and total subscription revenue backlog reached $22.19 billion, up 20% [10]. Industry Dynamics - Workday's strong customer relationships across various industries contributed to its growth, particularly in government and higher education, where approximately 90% of wins were for full suite solutions [2][3]. - The professional and business services sector became the third industry to exceed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, joining financial services and retail and hospitality [3]. AI and Product Innovations - Workday emphasized the growing demand for AI solutions, with over 30% of customer expansions in Q3 involving AI products [4]. - The company launched "Illuminate," a next-generation AI platform aimed at enhancing productivity and transforming business processes [5]. - New AI agents, including the Recruiter Agent, are expected to significantly impact bookings and revenue, with customers experiencing up to a 39% reduction in turnover [4][24]. Strategic Partnerships and International Growth - Workday formed strategic partnerships with organizations like Deloitte and AWS, enhancing its product offerings and market reach [3][5]. - International growth remains a key focus, with only 25% of revenue currently coming from outside the U.S., indicating significant long-term potential [8]. Future Guidance and Market Outlook - For Q4 FY25, Workday expects subscription revenue of $2.025 billion, reflecting a growth of 15%, and a full-year subscription revenue of $7.703 billion, an increase of 17% [10][11]. - The company anticipates FY26 subscription revenue of approximately $8.8 billion, or about 14% growth, with expectations for a stronger second half driven by AI opportunities [11][12]. Management Changes - Doug Robinson, a long-time leader at Workday, will retire at the end of the fiscal year, with Rob Inslin appointed as the new President and Chief Commercial Officer [8][9]. Risks and Considerations - The company highlighted risks related to revenue recognition for strategic deals, which may impact near-term results but are expected to contribute positively in the long term [13][14]. - Workday is navigating increased deal scrutiny in certain global markets, particularly in EMEA, but remains confident in its win rates and strategic positioning [21][22]. Conclusion - Workday is positioned for sustainable growth, focusing on AI innovations, expanding its partner ecosystem, and enhancing its international presence while managing operational efficiencies and strategic investments [31].

Summary of the Economic Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global economic outlook, with a focus on North America and various regions including Latin America, Asia/Pacific, and Europe. The data is sourced from J.P. Morgan's economic research. Key Points and Arguments Global Economic Growth - The global economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 2.7% in 2024 and a recovery to 2.4% in 2025 [2][4][5] - Developed markets are expected to grow at 1.8% in 2023, with a marginal increase to 1.7% in 2024 [5] - Emerging markets are forecasted to grow at 4.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 4.1% in 2024 [5] United States Economic Outlook - The U.S. real GDP growth is projected at 2.9% for 2023, decreasing to 2.8% in 2024 and further to 2.2% in 2025 [2][5] - Private consumption is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024 [5] - Equipment investment is forecasted to increase by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024 [5] - Consumer prices are projected to rise by 4.1% in 2023, decreasing to 2.9% in 2024 [5] Canada and Latin America - Canada’s GDP growth is expected to be 1.2% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 1.1% in 2024 [2] - Latin America is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 1.8% in 2024 [2] - Argentina is facing a contraction of -1.6% in 2023, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 at 4.4% [2] Asia/Pacific Region - The Asia/Pacific region is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2023, decreasing to 3.9% in 2024 [2] - China’s growth is projected at 5.2% in 2023, with a decrease to 4.8% in 2024 [2] - India is expected to maintain strong growth at 8.2% in 2023, decreasing to 6.5% in 2024 [2] Europe and the Euro Area - The Euro area is projected to grow at 0.5% in 2023, with a slight increase to 0.8% in 2024 [5] - Germany is expected to experience a slight contraction of -0.1% in 2023, with a recovery to 0.1% in 2024 [5] - France is projected to grow at 1.1% in 2023, maintaining the same growth rate in 2024 [5] Other Notable Points - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024 [5] - The federal budget balance is projected to be -6.1% of GDP in 2023, slightly worsening to -6.3% in 2024 [5] - Industrial production in the U.S. is expected to decline by -0.5% in 2023, with a slight recovery to -0.3% in 2024 [5] Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the significant impact of government spending and investment on economic growth, particularly in the U.S. where government spending is projected to grow by 3.9% in 2023 [5] - The report also notes the importance of inventory changes, with a significant increase in inventory contribution expected in the U.S. from $33.1 billion in 2023 to $63.9 billion in 2024 [5] - The analysis emphasizes the varying economic conditions across different regions, indicating that while some areas may experience growth, others may face challenges such as contractions or slower growth rates [2][5]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 3:37PM EST Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Are Potential YTD Laggards to Leaders in 2025? | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | This week in the Pulse, we ask our senior analyst team to discuss stocks that are ...

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Market Review Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of Trumponomics on the equity market and the potential for reconstruction in Ukraine, which may begin in 2025. The AI investment theme remains strong despite recent market volatility [3][4][12]. Core Insights 1. **Trumponomics and Market Volatility**: The market is currently in a "guessing game" regarding the implementation of Trumponomics policies, which is expected to create volatility until the new administration is in place in late January 2025. Initial positive reactions to the Trump win have waned, with some investors taking profits [4][12]. 2. **Ukraine Reconstruction**: The World Bank estimates that nearly $500 billion will be required for the reconstruction of Ukraine over several years. A basket of European stocks that may benefit from a ceasefire and reconstruction efforts has been launched, which initially outperformed but has recently faced volatility due to escalating tensions [12][19]. 3. **AI Investment Theme**: Nvidia's Q3 earnings and guidance indicate continued strength in AI investments. The report highlights a European AI ecosystem beneficiaries basket, which includes sectors like Utilities, Industrials, and Real Estate, expected to benefit from infrastructure spending related to data centers [19][20]. Market Trends 1. **Equity Inflows**: Risk assets, particularly equities, have seen inflows of $14 billion this week, marking seven consecutive weeks of inflows. The inflows are primarily driven by US funds, while emerging markets and Europe have experienced outflows [27][28]. 2. **Sector Performance**: The technology sector dominated inflows, capturing two-thirds of the total, while defensives like Utilities and Telecoms lagged. In Europe, all sectors continue to see outflows [28][29]. 3. **Fixed Income Trends**: Fixed income funds saw inflows of $9 billion, with strong interest in high-yield bonds, while treasuries experienced outflows for the second consecutive week [29]. Additional Insights - **Sentiment Indicators**: The AAII Bull-Bear index has retreated to more moderate levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment following the election [10][12]. - **Upcoming Economic Data**: Key market-moving events include US new home sales, consumer confidence, and GDP data, which are expected to influence market trends in the coming weeks [22][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the equity market review, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential future developments.

Summary of Enel Americas Investor Day Feedback Company Overview - **Company**: Enel Americas (ENELAM) - **Date of Report**: November 22, 2024 - **Analyst**: Victor Burke, J.P. Morgan Key Points Strategic Focus - Enel Americas is focusing on grid investments, with a **61% increase in CAPEX** for grids compared to the previous strategic plan, totaling **$7.5 billion** for the period 2025-2027 [3][4] - The company aims to improve quality and increase the Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) [3] Financial Guidance - Enel Americas expects **$4.5 billion** in EBITDA for 2025 and **$5.3 billion** for 2027, which is **11% above J.P. Morgan estimates** and **9% above consensus** [4] - The guidance assumes a BRL/USD exchange rate of **5.2** for 2025 and **5.1** for 2027, which is lower than J.P. Morgan's estimates of **5.7** and **5.9** respectively [4] - Adjusting for current FX rates, the three-year EBITDA could be **$350 million lower** [4] CAPEX Allocation - **82%** of the CAPEX is directed towards grids, particularly in Brazil, with **$4.6 billion** allocated to Brazil, broken down as follows: - **$2.4 billion** in São Paulo - **$1.2 billion** in Ceará - **$1.0 billion** in Rio de Janeiro [4] Generation Capacity - The company is pausing capacity expansion, anticipating a recovery in hydrological conditions in Colombia and Brazil [4] - Enel Americas holds a **16GW pipeline** in renewables but faces challenges with power prices not exceeding the WACC + 300bps hurdle rate for new projects [4] - Growth in capacity is limited to approximately **600MW** of solar assets in Colombia, offset by the decommissioning of a coal-fired plant [4] Cash Flow and Leverage - Enel Americas has concluded its asset disposal program, with only some Gx assets in Peru remaining for sale [4] - The company plans to pay **$1.8 billion** in dividends over the next three years, resulting in a projected **0.7x Net Debt/EBITDA** by the end of 2027, which is considered suboptimal for a utility company [6] - Management indicated that if no good opportunities arise for capital allocation, cash generation will flow to dividends [6] Market Rating - J.P. Morgan maintains a **Neutral rating** on Enel Americas [3][5] Additional Insights - The company is adapting to regulatory improvements in Argentina, which has contributed **$400 million** to the EBITDA guidance [4] - The focus on grids is a response to recent storm events in São Paulo, indicating a proactive approach to infrastructure resilience [4] Conclusion Enel Americas is strategically positioning itself for growth in grid infrastructure while managing financial expectations amid currency fluctuations and market conditions. The focus on dividends and maintaining a low leverage ratio reflects a cautious yet opportunistic approach to capital allocation.

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for Brent crude oil prices and market dynamics for 2025 and beyond [3][12][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: - Brent oil prices are expected to average around $80 per barrel in 2024 but have recently declined to the low-to-mid $70s due to market confidence in a significant surplus in 2025 [3][12]. - The forecast for Brent in 2025 is an average of $76 per barrel, with a peak of $78 in June [24][75]. 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - A modest surplus of 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) is anticipated in 2025, driven by supply growth from the Americas and OPEC supply increases [5][24]. - The 2024 oil market is projected to have a deficit of 0.5 mb/d, primarily due to supply misses in Brazil and OPEC countries [12][14]. 3. **Price Range Expectations**: - The base case for Brent prices is set between $70 and $85 per barrel, with high spare capacity limiting price increases and the price elasticity of supply limiting downside risks [4][18][20]. - Short-term price risks are skewed to the upside, particularly if Iranian supply drops significantly due to sanctions [6][43]. 4. **Refining Market Outlook**: - Despite ample spare capacity in oil production, the refining market remains tight, with expectations for gasoline and diesel margins to recover further [8][57]. - Refining capacity is projected to increase by 0.45 mb/d annually from 2025 to 2027, slower than previous years due to closures and rationalizations [57][60]. 5. **Long-term Demand Growth**: - Oil demand is expected to grow for another decade, driven by rising energy demand in emerging markets and challenges in decarbonizing air travel and petrochemical products [65][66]. - The global demand growth is forecasted to pick up to 1.2 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the US, China, and India [36][38]. 6. **Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs)**: - The rise of EVs is projected to peak oil demand in China by 2025, with a significant impact on global oil demand growth [70][72]. - The drag on oil demand from EVs is expected to increase, but recent sales trends indicate potential downside risks to EV adoption [70][73]. Other Important Insights - **Hedging Recommendations**: Oil producers are advised to hedge against modest downside risks using producer three-way options strategies [7][51]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current selloff in oil prices reflects a disconnect between market sentiment and actual supply-demand fundamentals, with a wide range of forecasts for 2025 [14][18]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply could lead to significant price spikes, with estimates suggesting Brent could rise to nearly $90 per barrel under certain scenarios [49][50]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the oil market's current state and future expectations.