Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Large Cap Banks - **Outlook for 2025**: Constructive on bank stocks with expectations of EPS growth accelerating and P/E multiples expanding [5][16][13] Core Insights - **EPS Growth**: Anticipated high single-digit to low double-digit EPS growth in 2025 and 2026, following minimal growth in 2024 [5][16] - **Factors Driving Growth**: - Accelerating loan growth - Declining funding costs - Increased fee income - Return of positive operating leverage - Measured increase in provisions for credit losses - Relatively stable tax rates - Lower share count and higher book values [5][16] - **Historical Context**: The growth formula mirrors the persistent earnings growth seen from 2011 to 2019 [5][16] - **Consolidation**: Expectation of accelerated industry consolidation, with a focus on disciplined buyers [5] Market Volatility Outlook - **2025 Volatility Expectations**: Market volatility influenced by pro-growth policies and inflationary implications, with potential for high dispersion in policies and market reactions [6][18] - **AI and Policy Impact**: The US is leading in AI advancements, which may create divergent market conditions [6][18] Sovereign Climate Performance - **Climate Risk**: Sovereign bonds represent systemic climate risk, affecting asset valuations and credit ratings [6][24] - **Framework for Assessment**: Expanded Barclays Sovereign Emissions Model to assess climate performance across 70 countries, covering 85% of emissions and 90% of global GDP [6][24] Key Data Points - **Bank Performance**: The BKX index increased by 32.8% in 2024, recovering from a 4.8% decline in 2023 [15] - **Market Concentration**: The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 represent a record percentage of the index weight, indicating high concentration risk [7] Additional Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Caution advised regarding potential missed opportunities due to excessive caution in the face of market volatility [6] - **Economic Indicators**: Strong economic performance with inflation concerns, leading to speculation about future Fed rate hikes [39][47] Conclusion - The outlook for US Large Cap Banks in 2025 is positive, driven by several growth factors and a favorable economic backdrop, despite potential market volatility and climate risks impacting sovereign bonds.

Summary of Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160.SS) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - **Current Price**: Rmb75.39 (as of January 9, 2025) - **Market Cap**: Rmb34,358 million - **Price Target**: Raised from Rmb62.00 to Rmb81.00 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - **Smartphone Market Recovery**: The smartphone inventory de-stocking has shifted to re-stocking in 2024, indicating a market recovery. Consumption subsidies for smartphones will be extended nationwide in 2025, which is expected to positively impact smartphone OEMs and supply chain companies [2][11]. - **Ultrasonic Fingerprint Adoption**: The adoption of ultrasonic fingerprint technology is anticipated to increase, particularly with the rise of flexible OLED displays. The price of ultrasonic fingerprint sensors has decreased to US$2-3 from US$10, making it more competitive against optical fingerprint sensors priced around US$1. Expected adoption rates are ~8% in 2025 and ~12% in 2026, potentially generating Rmb408 million and Rmb768 million in revenue for Goodix in those years, respectively [3][19]. Product Development and Revenue Growth - **Light Sensor Market**: Light sensors are rapidly growing, with a total addressable market (TAM) of around US$1 billion in 2022, projected to grow at an 8% CAGR from 2022 to 2026. Goodix aims to capture market share among Chinese smartphone OEMs due to its high-precision and compact light sensor technology [4][20][21]. - **New Product Lines**: Goodix has started shipments of NFC+eSE security chips and has made progress with healthcare sensor chips. These developments are expected to contribute to revenue growth [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Growth**: Goodix is expected to achieve a 17.8% earnings CAGR from 2024E to 2027E. The company’s EPS is projected to rise from Rmb0.36 in 2023 to Rmb1.72 in 2026 [5][31]. - **Revenue Estimates**: Projected revenues are Rmb4,408 million for 2023, Rmb4,339 million for 2024E, Rmb5,093 million for 2025E, and Rmb6,024 million for 2026E [53]. Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Valuation Metrics**: The new price target of Rmb81 implies a 2025e P/E of 55.0x, aligning with the company's historical average. The valuation reflects higher earnings estimates driven by ultrasonic fingerprint and light sensor contributions [25][34]. - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include slower adoption of ultrasonic fingerprint solutions, geopolitical tensions affecting Huawei smartphone shipments, and aggressive pricing competition in the fingerprint sensor market [30][42]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: The overall outlook for Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of recovery in the smartphone market and growth in new product lines. The company is positioned to benefit from technological advancements and market trends, although it faces certain risks that could impact its performance [42][25].

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Semiconductors** industry, particularly companies involved in AI infrastructure and related technologies. [1] Core Company Insights Analog Devices (ADI) - **Outlook**: Management maintains a constructive view, expecting high-single digit year-over-year growth in Industrial revenue for CY2025, which constitutes 46% of total revenue. [5] - **Revenue Drivers**: Strong demand in Test & Instrumentation and Aerospace & Defense sectors, along with robust EV demand in China, are key revenue drivers. [5] - **AI Revenue**: Currently generates approximately $400 million in annual revenue from AI-related products. [5] - **Valuation**: Despite a P/E of 31x, the stock is expected to grow into this multiple due to higher revenue and improved cost absorption. [5][6] Credo Technology (CRDO) - **Growth Drivers**: Positive outlook driven by the adoption of Active Electrical Cables in AI compute infrastructure and evolving network architectures. [10] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenue growth from $193 million in FY2024 to $796 million by FY2027. [9] - **Risks**: Customer concentration and competition are noted as potential risks. [11] Lam Research (LRCX) - **Market Position**: Expected to outgrow the Wafer Fab Equipment market due to advancements in technology transitions and strength in HBM. [15] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to grow from $14.9 billion in FY2024 to $20.9 billion by FY2027. [14] - **Risks**: Weaker demand in NAND and potential export restrictions are highlighted as risks. [16] Marvell Technology (MRVL) - **AI Revenue**: Management is confident in exceeding AI revenue forecasts of $1.5 billion for FY2025. [20] - **Market Trends**: Emphasis on networking solutions as hyperscalers transition to larger compute clusters. [20] - **Revenue Growth**: Expected revenue growth from $5.5 billion in FY2024 to $11.9 billion by FY2027. [19] - **Risks**: Moderation in AI spending and increased competition are noted as risks. [21] Micron Technology (MU) - **Market Conditions**: Management expects normalization in customer inventory by spring, leading to improved business conditions. [25] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to grow from $25.1 billion in FY2024 to $46.1 billion by FY2027. [24] - **Risks**: Weaker demand for consumer electronics and lack of supply discipline are potential risks. [26] Nvidia (NVDA) - **Growth Drivers**: Investments in AI infrastructure by major hyperscalers are expected to drive growth. [30] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue expected to grow from $60.9 billion in FY2024 to $242.4 billion by FY2027. [29] - **Risks**: Decline in AI spending and GPU export restrictions are highlighted as risks. [31] ON Semiconductor (ON) - **Market Outlook**: Management expects sequential revenue growth to follow sub-seasonal patterns, with a focus on intelligent power and sensing technologies. [35] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue projected to decline slightly before recovering to $7.5 billion by FY2026. [34] - **Risks**: Weakness in key end-markets and increased competition are noted as risks. [36] Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) - **Market Position**: Near-term fundamentals are tracking as expected, with potential for revenue growth in CY2025 and CY2026. [40] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenue growth from $4.2 billion in FY2024 to $4.8 billion by FY2027. [39] - **Risks**: Fluctuations in smartphone demand and market share are potential risks. [41] Texas Instruments (TXN) - **Market Position**: Despite a strong product portfolio, the company is rated as a Sell due to high valuation compared to peers. [45] - **Revenue Forecast**: Revenue expected to decline slightly before recovering to $19.1 billion by FY2026. [44] - **Risks**: Valuation concerns and potential weakness in key markets are noted. [46] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment among companies enabling AI infrastructure is optimistic, while others express caution due to demand uncertainty and inventory challenges. [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of adapting to evolving market conditions and technological advancements in the semiconductor industry. [1]

Summary of Sunny Optical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sunny Optical (2382.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Market Cap**: RMB 64,507 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$72.00, with a 15% upside from the current price of HK$62.70 as of January 10, 2025 Key Takeaways - **Handset CCM Shipments**: Experienced a strong month-over-month (MoM) recovery in December 2024, indicating potential for new orders in 2025 to maintain industry leadership [1] - **Segment Performance**: - Handset lens growth was slightly above target - Vehicle lens growth was within the target range [1] Shipment Data - **Handset CCM Shipments**: - January 2023: 40,720 k units, YoY -19% - December 2023: 47,089 k units, YoY -9% - January 2024: 62,256 k units, YoY +32% [2][10] - **Handset Lens Shipments**: - January 2023: 66,673 k units, YoY -49% - December 2023: 106,916 k units, YoY -9% - January 2024: 103,237 k units, YoY -3% [2][10] - **Vehicle Lens Shipments**: - Growth of 13% in 2024, within the target range of 10-15% [10] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: - FY23: RMB 31,681 million - FY24e: RMB 36,300 million - FY25e: RMB 40,514 million [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY23: RMB 0.99 - FY24e: RMB 2.39 - FY25e: RMB 2.75 [7] - **Valuation**: - P/E ratios projected to decrease from 65.3 in FY23 to 19.4 in FY26 [7] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Improvement in handset lens gross margin due to larger scale - Faster-than-expected growth in vehicle lens/module - Gaining market share with new international clients [18] - **Downside Risks**: - Component shortages affecting gross margin and supply - Increased competition in the CCM market leading to potential oversupply - Weaker-than-expected demand for handset lenses [18] Conclusion Sunny Optical is positioned for growth in 2025, with a strong recovery in handset CCM shipments and solid performance in both handset and vehicle lens segments. The company aims to secure new orders to sustain its market leadership, while also navigating potential risks associated with competition and supply chain challenges.

Summary of Taiwan ODMs Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Taiwan ODMs/OEMs sector, particularly in the PC and server markets, highlighting revenue performance and future expectations for 4Q24 and 1Q25 [2][5]. Key Points PC Market Insights - **4Q24 Performance**: Taiwan ODMs reported better-than-expected server revenue but mixed results in PC revenue. PC brand revenue fell short of market expectations due to weak end demand [2][5]. - **1Q25 Outlook**: The notebook ODM build is expected to be slightly above seasonal trends with a forecasted decline of 12% QoQ. However, PC brands anticipate YoY growth driven by a new product cycle [2][5]. - **Shipments**: 4Q24 shipments for motherboards and VGA were in line with estimates, with expectations for a strong sequential uptick in VGA shipments in 1H25 due to Nvidia's RTX50 series [2][5]. Server Market Insights - **General Server Demand**: There was resilient demand for general servers, with AWS AI ASIC revenue increasing in 4Q24. However, the transition to Blackwell servers negatively impacted GPU server ODM/OEM revenues [2][5]. - **Revenue Expectations**: Wiwynn is favored for its continued ASIC project ramp-up and potential GPU earnings contribution. Quanta and Hon Hai are preferred for their strong positioning in future-generation Nvidia AI servers [2][5]. Company-Specific Performance - **iPhone Revenue**: iPhone revenue was weaker than expected, particularly for non-Pro models, indicating sluggish demand [2][5]. - **Company Preferences**: For non-server segments, ASUSTek and Lenovo are preferred due to new gaming product cycles and anticipated PC recovery. ASMedia and Realtek are expected to benefit from above-seasonal PC semiconductors momentum in 1Q25 [2][5]. Financial Data Highlights - **PC Brands Performance**: - Asus: 4Q24 revenue down 10% QoQ, up 25% YoY - Acer: 4Q24 revenue down 9% QoQ, up 5% YoY - MSI: 4Q24 revenue down 1% QoQ, up 5% YoY - Gigabyte: 4Q24 revenue down 7% QoQ, up 44% YoY [7]. - **Notebook ODMs Performance**: - Wistron: 4Q24 revenue up 9% QoQ, up 29% YoY - Compal: 4Q24 revenue down 6% QoQ, down 5% YoY - Inventec: 4Q24 revenue up 21% QoQ, up 54% YoY [7]. Future Guidance - **1Q25 Guidance Changes**: - Wistron: <10% QoQ decline (previously teens % decline) - Compal: <10% QoQ decline (previously likely above seasonal trend) - Inventec: ~20% QoQ decline (previously double-digit decline) - Pegatron: Down teens % QoQ (previously single-digit decline) [11]. Additional Insights - **Gaming Cycle**: The launch of Nvidia's RTX series is expected to drive motherboard and VGA sales momentum in 1H25, with ASUSTek and MSI projected to grow revenues by 16% and 18% YoY, respectively [10]. - **iPhone EMS**: Seasonal declines are expected in 1Q25, but a new SE model launch is anticipated [10]. Conclusion The Taiwan ODMs sector is experiencing mixed results with a cautious outlook for 1Q25, particularly in the PC market. However, there are positive signals in the server segment and potential growth driven by new product cycles in gaming and AI servers.

12 January 2025 | 6:19PM JST Japan Market Monitor: Re-balancing sector and thematic indices In this week's Japan Market Monitor, we discuss the re-balancing of our Japan Market Monitor indices. Over the end-of-year break, we have re-balanced our equal-weighted sector and thematic indices, and also added 2 new thematic indices: 1) AI Beneficiaries; and 2) Defense. Due to 6M adtvs falling below our US$20mn threshold for some names since the last re-balance, we have removed 30 stocks from our universe (Exhibit ...

January 12, 2025 10:39 PM GMT 5) Optics component design extension: Most smartphone OEMs didn't attended CES as they had another global event for new product promotion in 1Q25. However, smartphone supply chain companies such as AAC, Sunny Optical and Crystal Optech did attend. Major products were related to machine vision (Robot) and AR/VR optical solutions. In light of strong new products launching in those two industries, smartphone supply chain companies are participating in new product innovation, aimin ...

12 Jan 2025 15:35:30 ET │ 61 pages China Consumer Stock-picking in 2025 CITI'S TAKE In our view, it will take time for the government's pro-consumption policies to boost growth of most China consumer companies in 25E. With low expectations on the positive impact of government policies (especially in 1H25E), we have used a thematic approach to analyze the evolved industry landscape in recent years and identify investment opportunities in 25E. Our Top Buys: Mengniu, CR Beer & Giant Bio in staples; Haier, Mide ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 12 January 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Zijin - A/H Zijin in talks to buy controlling stake in Zangge Mining Zijin-A/H were up 1% and 3% respectively (vs. HSCEI -1%) on January 10. We believe the outperfor ...

Summary of Gaming Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Gaming Industry**, particularly the performance and recovery of gaming revenues in **Macau**, **Singapore**, and **Las Vegas** [1] Key Insights on Macau - **Macau GGR Recovery**: Expected to recover to **80%** of 2019 levels in **2025E** and **82%** in **2026E**, up from **78%** in 2024, **63%** in 2023, and **14%** in 2022 [2] - **Mass vs. VIP Performance**: Mass GGR projected to reach **115%** of 2019 levels by **2025E** and **119%** by **2026E**, while VIP GGR is expected to be **23%** in 2025E and **24%** in 2026E [2] - **Capacity Recovery**: Flight capacity has recovered to **77%** of pre-Covid levels as of November 2024, up from **53%** in 2023; ferry capacity at **71%**, up from **61%** in 2023 [2] Key Insights on Singapore - **Singapore GGR Forecast**: Expected to decline by **1%** YOY in **2025E** (at **121%** of 2019 levels) and increase by **3%** YOY in **2026E** [3] - **Historical Context**: Pre-Covid visibility on Singapore GGR was low due to declines in VIP volume and increasing regional competition [3] Key Insights on Las Vegas - **Strip Gaming Revenue Trends**: YTD through November 2024, Vegas Strip gaming revenue was down **1%** YOY, with total visitation down **2%** compared to 2019 [4] - **Passenger Capacity Growth**: Las Vegas airline passenger capacity increased by **13%** compared to 2019, indicating a potential for future revenue growth despite current declines [4] - **Revenue Composition**: Non-gaming revenues have become a significant part of profitability, accounting for over **60%** of gross revenues for major operators like Wynn and MGM [16] Revenue Performance Metrics - **Las Vegas Strip Gaming Revenue**: - 2023 revenue was **$8.9 billion**, a **7%** increase YOY, supported by record air passenger traffic [22] - Revenue excluding baccarat showed a **4%** increase YOY in 2023 [22] - **RevPAR Trends**: - RevPAR improved to **up 19%** YOY in 2023 but has decelerated to **up 1%** YOY year-to-date through November 2024 [19] Additional Observations - **Market Dynamics**: The Las Vegas market is facing tough comparisons from a record 2023, with operators like WYNN and MGM highlighting challenges in Q4 and upcoming Super Bowl comparisons [4] - **Baccarat's Role**: Baccarat remains a volatile component of gaming, representing about **21%** of total Vegas gaming revenues pre-Covid, indicating its significance in the VIP segment [24] Conclusion - The gaming industry is on a recovery path post-Covid, with varying performance across regions. Macau shows strong recovery potential, while Las Vegas faces challenges from tough comparisons and changing consumer behavior. Singapore's GGR is stabilizing but remains under pressure from competition. Non-gaming revenues are crucial for profitability, especially during economic downturns.