Industry Overview * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4%. The largest subset of manufacturing production declined 0.5% MoM. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity. Key Points * **Industrial Production**: Industrial production fell 0.3% MoM in October, slightly stronger than consensus expectations at -0.4% and Citi at -0.7% [6]. * **Temporary Factors**: The Federal Reserve indicated a 0.3pp drag from strikes and hurricanes during the month. These factors should rebound and boost IP in November [1]. * **Underlying Trend**: The underlying trend of manufacturing activity remains subdued even without these temporary factors [1]. * **Near-term Outlook**: The near-term outlook remains unclear. There could be some boost to activity from lifting of post-election uncertainty, but recently rising yields could weigh further on this ratesensitive sector [1]. * **Survey Data**: Citi will be watching survey data like ISM manufacturing for any change in the outlook for still-soft underlying activity [1].

14 Nov 2024 09:32:57 ET │ 10 pages China Materials 2024 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #136 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency onground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 7th to 13th Nov. We shift our n ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Auto Manufacturers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Auto Manufacturers** industry, specifically the performance of imported vehicle sales in October 2024 and the year-to-date figures for 2024. Key Points 1. **Imported Vehicle Sales Performance** - October 2024 retail sales of imported vehicles decreased by **20% YoY** and **7% MoM**, totaling **48.5k units** sold. - Year-to-date (10M24) imported car retail sales were down **14% YoY**, amounting to **531.0k units** sold. [1][2][7] 2. **Brand-Specific Sales Data** - **Mercedes-Benz**: Sold **10,724 units** in October 2024, down **5% YoY** and **10% MoM**. Year-to-date sales decreased by **18%** to **105,204 units**. - **BMW**: Sales fell **36% YoY** to **4,990 units** in October, with a **18%** decline in year-to-date sales. - **Porsche**: Experienced a **32% YoY** drop, selling **3,618 units** in October, and a **33%** decline year-to-date. - **Audi**: Sales decreased by **29% YoY** to **3,412 units** in October, with a **15%** decline year-to-date. - **Land Rover**: Notably down **89% YoY** in October, selling **3,531 units**. - **Toyota**: Sales decreased by **27% YoY** to **2,333 units** in October, but year-to-date sales increased by **8%**. - **Other Brands**: Significant declines were noted across various brands, with total import passenger vehicle sales down **20% YoY** in October. [2][7] 3. **Investment Ratings** - **ZSG (0881.HK)**: Target price raised to **HK$23.25** based on a **6x 2026E P/E** multiple, reflecting sector downcycle and earnings improvement trajectory. - **Yongda (3669.HK)**: Target price set at **HK$2.98**, with a projected **8% dividend yield** for 2024. - **Meidong Auto (1268.HK)**: Target price of **HK$2.40**, with a focus on cash flow and healthy inventory management. [9][12][13] 4. **Risks Identified** - **Macroeconomic Weakness**: A weak macro environment could reduce consumer purchasing power, especially in lower-tier cities. - **Revenue and Margin Risks**: Lower-than-expected revenues and gross profit margins in the passenger vehicle and after-sales businesses could impact performance. - **Intensified Competition**: Increased competition may pressure profitability. - **Sales and Earnings Risks**: Risks associated with actual sales and earnings performance, particularly if a post-pandemic rebound does not occur as anticipated. [10][11][14] 5. **Analyst Insights** - Analysts express caution regarding the overall market conditions and the potential for continued declines in sales across various brands. The focus remains on identifying companies with strong management and prudent expansion strategies to navigate the current downcycle. [4][10][11] Additional Important Information - The report includes detailed sales figures by brand and highlights the significant declines in the luxury vehicle segment. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and consumer sentiment as key factors influencing the auto industry in China. - The report also discusses the potential for dealer consolidation in the medium term, which could impact market dynamics. [1][2][9][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook for three trade-oriented economies: Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, highlighting their export performance and domestic demand dynamics in 2024 and expectations for 2025 [2][5][8]. Key Points Export Performance - Exports from Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam outperformed expectations in 2024, with Vietnam leading the performance for the first nine months [5][8]. - Robust exports have supported overall economic growth above potential despite tight monetary and credit policies [5][8]. - In 2025, growth is expected to slow significantly in Korea and Taiwan, while Vietnam's growth is projected to rise moderately [2][8]. - A broad moderation in exports is anticipated due to weak demand from mainland China and uncertainties surrounding US trade policy [2][8]. - The report notes a significant reduction in export exposure to China for these economies, attributed to localization of supply chains and US tariffs [2][8][9]. Domestic Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand is expected to diverge among the three economies: sustained strength in Vietnam, recovery in Korea, and moderation in Taiwan [20][23]. - In Korea, consumption is projected to recover slowly due to declines in borrowing costs and a moderate fiscal stance, while investment is unlikely to see significant growth due to uncertainties in US trade policy [20][23]. - Taiwan is expected to experience double-digit increases in equipment investment driven by strong AI-related demand, despite a slowdown in private consumption growth [20][23]. - Vietnam's labor market is normalizing post-pandemic, with job growth returning to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising around 8% [23][24]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam is expected to moderate in line with targets due to stabilizing commodity prices and weak global demand [28][31]. - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to gradually cut the policy rate to 2.25% by late 2025, reflecting slow growth and reduced risks of housing market overheating [35][39]. - Taiwan's monetary policy is expected to ease moderately, while Vietnam's credit policy may become less restrictive as financial stability improves [36][39]. Risks and Opportunities - Main risks include potential growth downturns from a broader trade war and deflationary pressures from China's excess capacity [41][43]. - Upside risks could arise from trade reallocation away from China, benefiting Vietnam's labor-intensive goods and Taiwan and Korea's capital-intensive goods [41][43]. Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025: Korea at 1.8%, Taiwan at 2.6%, and Vietnam at 6.4% [44]. - Headline CPI inflation projections for 2025: Korea at 1.6%, Taiwan at 1.3%, and Vietnam at 3.3% [44]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering external factors, such as US trade policy and China's economic performance, in assessing the outlook for these economies [2][41]. - The analysis highlights the shifting trade dynamics and the increasing importance of the US as a market for these economies, particularly in value-added terms [13][17].

Industry/Company Involved * **Global Macro Outlook 2025**: The document discusses the global macroeconomic outlook for 2025, covering various regions including the US, Europe, China, and beyond. It focuses on growth prospects and investment opportunities across different asset classes such as equities, credit, commodities, and bonds. Core Views and Arguments * **Growth Prospects**: The document highlights that growth prospects for 2025 are positive, driven by factors such as improving economic conditions, increasing consumer spending, and supportive monetary policies. * **Tailwinds Overhead**: The document emphasizes that tailwinds are likely to outweigh headwinds, such as geopolitical tensions and rising inflation, leading to overall positive growth. * **Asset Class Performance**: The document provides insights into the expected performance of different asset classes in 2025. It suggests that equities and credit markets may benefit from improving economic conditions, while commodities and bonds may experience mixed performance. Other Important Content * **Research Areas**: The document mentions various research areas covered by Goldman Sachs, including inflation, central banks, private markets, consumer trends, and innovation in sectors like AI, fintech, and healthcare. * **Market Themes**: The document highlights key market themes for 2025, such as carbonomics, the Inflation Reduction Act, GS SUSTAIN, green capex, electrification in Europe, obesity, and China's transition. * **Research Products**: The document provides information about Goldman Sachs' research products and services, including the GS Factor Profile, M&A Rank, and Quantum database. * **Disclosures**: The document includes various disclosures related to the research report, such as regulatory disclosures, ratings distribution, and investment banking relationships.

M Update November 15, 2024 01:21 PM GMT Loar Holdings Inc | North America Continuing to Execute on its Growth Strategy | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | What's Changed \nLoar Holdings Inc (LOAR.N) | From | To | | Price Target | $75.00 | $89.00 | Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS We see the move lower in the stock as largely overdone as gr ...

15 Nov 2024 14:36:08 ET │ 10 pages Global Commodities CBAM risks further straining the US-EU relationship as it targets €4 billion worth of US imports with an implied 10% tariff The first attempt to accurately compile the CBAM registry failed, underscoring the mechanism's limitations we previously detailed in Global Commodities - CBAM primer and how EU producers and importers could save up to €600 million on higher CBAM related costs from 2026. Moreover, during the second Trump presidency, CBAM risks furthe ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Retail and Food Services - **Key Metrics**: Retail sales data for October and revisions for previous months Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Retail Sales Performance**: - Headline retail sales increased by 0.4%, slightly above consensus expectations of 0.3% [1] - Control group sales, however, decreased by 0.1%, contrasting with consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase [1] - There was a net downward revision to control group sales for August and September, indicating a slight decline in spending levels [1] 2. **Consumption Tracking**: - For Q4, consumption tracking was adjusted down to 2.0% from 2.1%, indicating a slowdown from the estimated 2.8% annual growth rate year-to-date [2] - Monthly real consumption growth is tracking down by 0.1% [2] 3. **Revisions to Previous Quarters**: - 3Q real consumption is expected to be revised down to 3.4% from 3.7%, and GDP growth is revised down to 2.6% from 2.8% [3] - Real goods spending is now projected to rise at a 5% annual rate instead of the previously estimated 6% [3] 4. **Sector Performance**: - Autos showed strong performance with a 1.6% increase in sales for October [4] - Gasoline sales increased slightly by 0.1%, despite a 1.5% decline in prices, indicating rising real purchase volumes [4] - Restaurants continued to perform well, with a 0.7% increase for the fourth consecutive month [4] - Categories such as health and personal care, miscellaneous, and apparel saw a reversal in strength in October compared to September [4] 5. **Building Materials and Online Sales**: - Building materials sales increased by 0.5%, which was solid but below expectations [5] - Online sales were revised upward for September and increased by 0.3% in October, maintaining a constant share of total sales [5] Additional Important Information - The report includes various economists from Morgan Stanley, indicating a collaborative analysis effort [1] - The data is sourced from the Census Department and Morgan Stanley Research, emphasizing the credibility of the information [1] - The report contains a disclosure section outlining the limitations and responsibilities of Morgan Stanley regarding the research provided [7][8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call notes, focusing on the retail and food services industry, highlighting performance metrics, revisions, and sector-specific insights.

Summary of Accelink's Optical Networking Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Optical Networking - **Company**: Accelink Technologies, a major transceiver manufacturer focusing on the Chinese domestic market Key Points 1. **Supply Constraints**: EML (Electro-absorption Modulated Laser) supplies will remain tight into 2025, impacting transceiver shipments [2][4] 2. **Demand Dynamics**: The demand for transceivers in China is strong, particularly for 400G products, which are a generation behind the mainstream products in North America [1][4] 3. **Shipment Lag**: Current shipments are lagging behind demand due to component supply constraints, leading to a portion of the demand in 2024 being pushed into 2025 [1][4] 4. **Production Capacity**: Accelink has established a new facility with equipment installed in July 2024, aiming for a production capacity of a few hundred thousand units per month, but is hindered by component supply issues [3] 5. **Market Competition**: Competition in the Chinese transceiver market is expected to intensify as suppliers expand their capacities, which may lead to pricing declines [4][6] 6. **Product Demand**: The construction of 400G long-haul optical networks by Chinese telecom operators is expected to increase demand for Accelink's products, including fiber amplifiers and coherent transceivers [7] 7. **Peer Comparison**: Accelink's insights on demand strength and EML supply tightness align with those of HG Tech, a close peer, but the intensifying competition poses a risk [8] Additional Insights - **Future Outlook**: Accelink anticipates that the demand for transceivers will continue to grow into 2025, despite current shipment challenges [4] - **Investment Implications**: The findings suggest potential investment opportunities in companies like HG Tech, which are also involved in the optical transceiver market [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the call regarding Accelink's position in the optical networking industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks associated with supply constraints and competitive dynamics.

M Idea Friday Finish – US Economics | North America November 15, 2024 09:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Seth B Carpenter Chief Global Economist Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0370 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berger Economist Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2296 The Noise Continu ...