Summary of Tourmaline Bio's Phase II TRANQUILITY Trial Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Tourmaline Bio - **Industry**: Cardiovascular Medicine, specifically focusing on anti-inflammatory treatments for cardiovascular diseases Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trial Overview**: The TRANQUILITY trial is a Phase II study evaluating pacifecatug, an IL-6 inhibitor, aimed at reducing high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), a biomarker for inflammation-related cardiovascular risk [5][6][7] 2. **Objectives**: The trial has three main objectives: - To test the efficacy of quarterly administration of an IL-6 inhibitor in reducing hsCRP levels - To gather safety data for Phase III development - To confirm the appropriate dosing for future studies [5][6] 3. **Results**: - Statistically significant reductions in hsCRP were observed across all dosing arms compared to placebo, with reductions of 75% for the 25 mg quarterly arm, 86% for the 50 mg quarterly arm, and 85% for the 15 mg monthly arm [18][19] - A significant percentage of patients achieved hsCRP levels below 2 mg/L, indicating reduced inflammatory risk: 81% in the 25 mg arm, 80% in the 50 mg arm, and 88% in the 15 mg arm [21][22] 4. **Safety Profile**: Pacifecatug was well tolerated, with adverse event rates comparable to placebo. No significant safety concerns were raised, and the incidence of serious adverse events was low [30][31] 5. **Unmet Need**: Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, with a significant portion of patients experiencing inflammation that is not adequately addressed by current therapies [7][8] 6. **Future Directions**: - Plans to meet with the FDA to discuss Phase III trial design and confirm dosing strategy - Potential Phase II proof of concept study in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) [43][43] - Exploration of longer dosing intervals, including potential six-month dosing [80][82] Additional Important Content 1. **Context of Inflammation**: The trial highlights the role of inflammation in cardiovascular disease, with hsCRP serving as a key marker. The evidence supporting IL-6 as a modifiable risk factor is growing, with genetic, epidemiological, and clinical trial data backing its significance [9][37] 2. **Placebo Response**: Variability in placebo responses was noted, consistent with other IL-6 inhibitor trials. The active treatment arms showed significant reductions in hsCRP, suggesting that the observed effects are not solely due to placebo [68][72] 3. **Regulatory Strategy**: The company aims to leverage existing data to support its regulatory submissions and is focused on high-risk patient populations that are currently underserved [41][61] This summary encapsulates the key findings and strategic directions from the conference call regarding Tourmaline Bio's ongoing efforts in cardiovascular treatment development.

Summary of Corpay (CPAY) FY Conference Call - May 20, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Corpay (CPAY) - **Event**: FY Conference Call - **Date**: May 20, 2025 Key Points Industry and Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is stable with no significant negative trends impacting the business at this time [3][4] - Political factors are creating some market churn, but Corpay's volumes and trends are steady and in line with expectations [4] Corporate Payments Segment - Corpay's corporate payments business consists of domestic payables and international payments, with a 60% to 40% split between cross-border and domestic payments [6] - Direct business accounts for approximately 90% of domestic payables revenue, indicating strong customer engagement and retention [7] Partnership with Mastercard - Corpay has entered into a partnership with Mastercard, which includes a $300 million investment for a 3% stake in Corpay's cross-border unit [9] - This partnership aims to enhance Corpay's visibility and access to tier two and tier three banks, where many international payments are made inefficiently in USD [11][12] - The collaboration is expected to contribute 2-3 percentage points to cross-border revenue growth by 2026 [13][14] Investment in Avid Exchange - Corpay has invested approximately $550 million for a one-third stake in Avid Exchange, partnering with TPG as the majority owner [16][17] - The investment aims to leverage Corpay's existing scale and expertise to drive growth in Avid Exchange [18] M&A Strategy - Corpay maintains a high appetite for mergers and acquisitions, focusing on strategic acquisitions that enhance core capabilities and shareholder value [24][25] - The company is looking to invest in corporate payment space opportunities that are accretive to earnings [26] Vehicle Payments Business - Corpay has shifted its focus to larger, healthier customers in the vehicle payments sector, moving away from micro-SMBs [29][30] - The company reports solid same-store sales trends and improved customer retention, with a churn rate of less than 7.5% [33][34] - The goal is to achieve 20% sales growth, contributing to 10% organic growth year-over-year [35] Brazil Market Strategy - Corpay has expanded its presence in Brazil through acquisitions of Gringo and ZapPay, enhancing its vehicle debt management offerings [46][48] - The Brazilian market is characterized by a high reliance on vehicles, and the new acquisitions have added 20 million incremental users to Corpay's platform [51] Lodging Segment Performance - The lodging segment faced a tough comparison in Q1 due to prior year events and has seen some softness in customer demand [56][57] - The company believes that its products provide cost savings and better oversight for customers, with expectations of mid-single-digit growth in the back half of the year [58] Non-Core Divestitures - Corpay is considering divesting non-core assets totaling approximately $2 billion to focus on growth areas that drive shareholder value [62][64] Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy - Corpay has prepared to service fleet customers transitioning to electric vehicles, particularly in Europe, but notes that the EV market is currently not a hot topic [69][71] - The company is agnostic to fuel types and is positioned to support both petrol and electric vehicles [72][73] Additional Insights - The company is actively monitoring the macroeconomic environment and adjusting its strategies accordingly, particularly in the vehicle payments and corporate payments sectors [2][3] - Corpay's focus on strategic partnerships and acquisitions is aimed at enhancing its market position and driving long-term growth [24][25][26]

Summary of ASP Isotopes (ASPI) and Renagen Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: Electronic gases and critical materials - **Companies Involved**: ASP Isotopes (ASPI) and Renagen - **Key Focus**: Critical materials essential for industries such as semiconductors, space travel, nuclear power, and medicine [2][6][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. **M&A Announcement**: ASP Isotopes announced a significant merger with Renagen, aimed at creating a powerhouse in electronic gases and critical materials [1] 2. **Critical Materials Definition**: Critical materials are characterized by tight supply chains and are essential for everyday life, impacting global megatrends [2] 3. **Manufacturing Capabilities**: ASP Isotopes has built three manufacturing plants in South Africa, focusing on self-sourcing components to enhance supply chain efficiency [3][4] 4. **Nuclear Fuel Plant Agreement**: ASP Isotopes signed an agreement with TerraPower to build a nuclear fuel plant for next-generation nuclear fuel [4] 5. **Financial Position**: ASP Isotopes announced an additional $30 million in debt funding, which is expected to be cash neutral to the balance sheet [5][14] 6. **Helium Production**: Renagen has a unique helium production process, with helium being critical for various industries, including electronics and space travel [6][30] 7. **Market Potential**: The combined entity is projected to generate over $300 million in EBITDA by 2030, focusing on semiconductors and medical isotopes [9][43] 8. **Share Exchange Details**: Renagen shareholders will receive shares of ASP Isotopes common stock in exchange for their shares [10][11] 9. **Geographic Diversification**: The merger will enhance geographic diversification and create a vertically and horizontally integrated supply chain [43][44] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Operational Challenges**: Renagen faced operational issues during the construction of its helium plant, which were exacerbated by COVID-19 and contractor issues [63][64] 2. **Helium Market Dynamics**: The helium market is fragile, with significant price increases observed due to supply chain disruptions, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic [33][60] 3. **Regulatory Support**: The U.S. government views helium as critical to national security, providing funding and support for projects like the Virginia gas project [75][78] 4. **Future Plans**: ASP Isotopes plans to spin out its Quantum Leap Energy business, focusing on nuclear fuels, later in the year [20][49] 5. **Unique Market Position**: The combined company will be the only one globally that can supply both helium and isotopes in significant quantities, creating a unique market offering [42][43] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic importance of the merger and the potential for growth in the critical materials sector.

Summary of International Game Technology Italy Lotto Tender Update Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: International Game Technology (IGT) - **Industry**: Lottery and Gaming Key Points and Arguments Lotto License Update - IGT announced a new nine-year license for the Italian Lotto, extending operations through November 2034 [5][15] - The upfront license fee is $2.23 billion, significantly higher than the previous fee, reflecting the expected value creation [6][15] - IGT has managed the Lotto business for over 30 years, providing exceptional returns for both the Italian government and shareholders [5][6] Revenue and Growth Strategy - IGT plans to grow revenue and cash flows by investing in the existing iLottery business and developing a new B2C digital iCasino and sports betting platform [6][14] - The company aims to increase iLottery penetration in Italy, which currently lags behind other high lottery markets, with a 26% CAGR over the last five years [8][11] - IGT's digital strategy includes the My Lotteries app, which is currently the most downloaded gaming app in Italy, designed to enhance player experience and engagement [11][12] Financial Metrics and Projections - The new B2C digital distribution licenses will earn an 8% gross fee on all wagers, in addition to the current 6% concession rate [15][46] - IGT expects to generate cash flows similar to the previous nine years despite the higher upfront fee, justifying the investment [24] - Approximately $150 million in CapEx is required to upgrade Lotto infrastructure, with an additional $30 million for the new digital distribution model [16][15] Market Penetration and Player Engagement - IGT has identified significant cross-selling opportunities between lottery players and digital gaming, with a 25% overlap between digital lottery players and those engaged in iCasino and sports betting [12][45] - The company aims to enhance the retail experience through state-of-the-art technology and a robust point of sale network, which includes 35,000 outlets [10][40] Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The company recognizes the competitive nature of the lottery industry, with only a few players capable of managing large-scale operations [70] - IGT is committed to leveraging its technology and expertise to drive growth in both retail and digital segments, aiming to align iLottery penetration with European benchmarks [14][64] - The management expressed confidence in achieving compelling IRR consistent with planned returns on large contracts, supported by digital expansion and operational efficiencies [47][48] Additional Considerations - The company is not planning to enter the retail side of the B2C business but will focus on enhancing its digital offerings [78] - Future capital allocation plans will be discussed as the company approaches the closing of the Voyager transaction, with a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [51][53] Conclusion - IGT is optimistic about the future of the Lotto business in Italy, with a clear strategy to enhance digital offerings and drive growth through innovation and technology [99]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economic Research and Trade Policy - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Insights and Arguments - The US has reduced tariffs on China to approximately 40%, down from 145%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point decrease in the effective US tariff rate, which now stands at around 14% compared to 3.5% at the beginning of the year [2][12][20] - This tariff reduction has led to an upward revision of the US GDP projections for 2025, now expected to expand by 0.6%, and a decrease in inflation forecasts due to less tariff pass-through [2][12] - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.5%, prompting a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy normalization until December [2][12] - The trade war's impact on business sentiment has been significant, with sentiment dropping into recession territory, but the anticipated recession in the US for the second half of 2025 has been removed due to the tariff détente [3][11] - Despite the positive developments, the overall global growth outlook remains weak, with recession risks still estimated at 40% for the second half of 2025 [11][17] Additional Important Content - The current US tariff rate represents a substantial tax hike equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which could lead to upward pressure on prices for imported goods [14] - The US fiscal policy is shifting towards a more stimulative approach, with a proposed net stimulus of nearly 1% of GDP for the next year, which is expected to support continued labor demand and economic expansion [14][19] - The easing of trade tensions with China does not imply a resolution of trade issues with the EU and other Asian countries, where negotiations remain contentious [11][18] - The US administration's recent actions indicate a willingness to avoid "short-term pain for long-term gain," which has positively influenced asset prices and market sentiment [12][19] - The anticipated growth drag on China due to tariffs has been reduced to -1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025 [20] - The economic integration deals with Gulf states, including significant investments and economic exchanges, are expected to enhance trade flows but have limited immediate economic impact [19][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of US trade policy changes and their effects on the broader economic landscape.

Summary of EM Local Rates Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around Emerging Market (EM) local rates, particularly in the context of recent tariff relief between the US and China, which has impacted global growth expectations and risk assets [3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Relief and Market Impact - Positive US-China tariff news has significantly relieved risks to global growth, leading to a more challenging environment for EM local rates as recovery in global growth expectations may temper recent rallies [3][5]. - The recent outperformance of EM local rates, particularly in high-yielders, is expected to face challenges as market pricing stabilizes [4][5]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Expectations - Economists have upgraded growth forecasts for China and regional Asia, alongside increased US growth expectations and reduced recession probabilities [5]. - The Federal Reserve's rate expectations have been pushed out, with a revised higher terminal rate forecast for the European Central Bank (ECB) [5]. Risks and Sensitivities - Low-yielding markets such as Korea, Czechia, Chile, and Poland are identified as more sensitive to potential pressures from US back-end rates, while high-yielders may benefit from pro-cyclical sensitivities [3][16]. - The potential for smaller spillovers from US-specific risks is noted, suggesting that if US rates rise due to inflation concerns, it could represent a greater headwind for EM rates [16]. Recommendations and Positioning - The company has closed its front-end receiver recommendations in India and Korea, indicating a shift in strategy as downside risks to global growth have diminished [3][9]. - There is a belief that the long-end of the curve in high-yielders like Mexico, Hungary, South Africa, and Indonesia may experience flattening due to better cyclical repricing [12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that while EM local rates may face consolidation, positive catalysts such as lower commodity prices, a weaker US Dollar, and improving local flow conditions could sustain outperformance relative to US rates [5][12]. - The long-end flattening in high-yielders is attributed to reduced political uncertainty and potential positive surprises from upcoming budget announcements [12]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need for caution as the market's rapid repricing may leave it vulnerable to disappointments in incoming data [5]. - The analysis includes a detailed examination of the sensitivities of EM local rates to US economic conditions, indicating a complex interplay between global and local factors [16][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of EM local rates, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the evolving market landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Economic Outlook - **Global Growth Forecast**: The global growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up to 2.3% from 2.1% due to a 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs [4][8] - **US Growth Forecast**: The US growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.5 percentage points to 1% Q4/Q4, with a reduction in 12-month recession odds to 35% from 45% [4][8] - **China Growth Forecast**: The growth forecast for China has been raised to 4.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, up from 4.0% and 3.5% previously [4][13] - **UK Growth Forecast**: The UK growth forecast has been increased to 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, reflecting better tariff news and stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP [5][12] Investment Trends - **US Investment Announcements**: Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US over multiple years, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion in capital investment and purchases of American goods [5][6] - **Investment Uplift Estimate**: The estimated uplift to annual investment from these projects is between $30 billion and $135 billion, which is 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP [7] Tariff Implications - **US-China Trade Deal**: The US and China reached a trade deal that includes a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs, leading to a lower effective tariff rate than previously expected [8][11] - **Long-term Tariff Effects**: A 13 percentage point increase in tariffs is projected to lower US real income by around 1% in the long run, with higher tariffs expected to weigh on output and innovation [11][12] Inflation and Economic Indicators - **Core CPI Inflation**: Core CPI inflation increased by 0.24% in April and 2.78% year-over-year, with specific categories showing upward pressure due to tariffs [11] - **Retail Sales and Jobless Claims**: Core retail sales declined by 0.2% in April, and initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000 for the week ending May 10 [12] Regional Economic Updates - **Europe**: The Euro area GDP forecast has been upgraded by 0.2%, with core inflation nudged up to 2.1% in Q4 2025 [12] - **India**: Headline inflation in India is near a six-year low, with a forecast of 1.2% real GDP growth in 2025, up from 1.1% previously [13][14] Additional Insights - **Investment Completion Rates**: Historical data indicates that 80% of announced investment projects were completed, suggesting that not all announced spending may materialize [5][6] - **Sectoral Tariff Flexibility**: The US-UK trade deal maintains a 10% baseline tariff but allows for flexibility on sectoral tariffs, indicating potential changes in trade dynamics [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic conditions, particularly focusing on the US-China trade deal and its implications for various economies including the US, China, Europe, and Latin America [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Deal**: The recent trade deal signifies a substantial de-escalation in trade tensions, prompting revisions in macro and market forecasts. The US growth forecast for 2023 has been increased to 1.0% from 0.5% [2][10]. 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The year-end unemployment rate forecast for the US has been lowered to 4.5% from 4.7% [2][10]. 3. **Recession Odds**: The odds of a recession in the US over the next 12 months have been reduced to 35% from 45% due to improved financial conditions [2][10]. 4. **Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of three rate cuts has been moved to December, with cuts anticipated at an every-other-meeting pace [2][10]. 5. **China's Export Growth**: The forecast for China's export volume growth in 2025 has been revised to 0% from -5%, indicating a more stable outlook [2][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been raised for China (4.6%/3.8%), Korea (1.1%), Taiwan (3.5%), and Vietnam (5.5%) [2][10]. 7. **European Economic Outlook**: The Euro area’s GDP forecasts for 2025/26 have been increased to 0.9%/1.1%, and core inflation forecasts for Q4 2025/26 have been raised to 2.1%/1.8% [2][10]. 8. **UK Economic Projections**: The UK’s GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 have been lifted to 1.2%/1.1%, with expectations for the Bank of England to cut rates to 3% in February [2][10]. 9. **Latin America**: The outlook for Mexico has improved, with no expected technical recession this year [2][10]. Market Implications 1. **S&P 500 Index Targets**: The 3/6/12 month targets for the S&P 500 index have been raised to 5900/6100/6500 from 5700/5900/6200, with EPS forecasts increased to $262 and $280 for this year and next, respectively [2][10]. 2. **STOXX Europe 600 Index**: The targets for the STOXX Europe 600 index have been lifted to 550/560/570 from 470/490/520 [2][10]. 3. **MSCI China and CSI300 Index**: The 12-month targets for MSCI China and CSI300 indices have been revised to 84 and 4600, respectively [2][10]. Additional Considerations 1. **Federal Reserve Independence**: Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, particularly in light of political pressures, which could lead to inflationary pressures and affect the appeal of the US Dollar and Treasuries [10][11]. 2. **US Household Balance Sheets**: US household balance sheets are reported to be healthy, with stable delinquency rates, except for student loans. Investors are advised to focus on segments with stronger borrower profiles [11][12]. 3. **Lessons from the UK Gilt Crisis**: The UK Gilt crisis has resulted in a higher risk premium for UK assets, which may serve as a cautionary tale for the US market regarding the growth-inflation trade-off [12][10]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for global economies, particularly in light of the US-China trade deal, while also addressing potential risks related to Federal Reserve independence and household debt dynamics. The revisions in growth forecasts and market targets reflect a more favorable economic environment, albeit with caution advised for potential recessionary outcomes.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **AI infrastructure industry**, particularly focusing on partnerships between the **US** and the **Middle East** that are expected to benefit companies involved in AI infrastructure such as **DELL**, **ANET**, **SMCI**, and **CSCO** [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Partnership Announcements**: Recent partnerships worth several billion dollars between the US and Middle Eastern countries have been announced, enhancing visibility into the demand for Sovereign AI infrastructure, which had previously been underestimated due to lack of traction [2][10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The US is set to receive significant investments from Saudi Arabia, including **$600 billion** announced on May 13th, which includes **$20 billion** for data center and energy infrastructure by **DataVolt** and **$80 billion** in technology investments across various companies [5][9]. - **AI Diffusion Rule Changes**: The US Department of Commerce rescinded the AI Diffusion rule, which would have imposed chip export restrictions, indicating a shift in regulatory landscape that could impact AI technology distribution [5][10]. - **NVIDIA's Export Agreement**: The US and UAE have agreed on a deal allowing **NVIDIA** to export **500,000 H100 GPUs** annually to the UAE, with **100,000 GPUs** allocated to **G42** for AI weather forecasting solutions [5][6]. Important Partnerships and Deals - **DataVolt and SMCI**: DataVolt announced a **$20 billion** deal with **Super Micro** to deliver GPU platforms for AI campuses in Saudi Arabia and the US [9][10]. - **Cisco Collaborations**: Cisco has entered into agreements with **G42** and **HUMAIN** to enhance AI infrastructure and explore cybersecurity solutions [9][10]. - **NVIDIA and HUMAIN Partnership**: NVIDIA will collaborate with HUMAIN to build AI factories in Saudi Arabia, deploying significant data center capacity supported by NVIDIA GPUs [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent announcements are expected to improve investor sentiment towards AI infrastructure, especially following a series of negative headlines in the sector [2][10]. - The diversification of customer demand for AI infrastructure beyond US neo-clouds is highlighted, with companies like **SMCI** expanding their customer base [10][14]. - US hyperscalers such as **Google**, **Microsoft**, and **Oracle** are also participating in Middle Eastern investments, indicating a robust future demand for AI servers in the region [10][14]. Potential Risks - There are concerns regarding potential security risks associated with the KSA+UAE/US AI partnership, particularly regarding GPU diversion to China and unauthorized model use. However, these risks are expected to be mitigated by the operational control of US hyperscalers [14][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future prospects of the AI infrastructure industry, particularly in the context of US-Middle East partnerships.

Summary of Global Commodities Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, particularly oil and base metals, highlighting recent trends and forecasts for 2025. Key Points Oil Market Insights - Global oil demand improved in early May, averaging 103.6 million barrels per day (mbd), which is a year-over-year increase of 440 thousand barrels per day (kbd) but still 240 kbd below expectations [6] - Global liquid stocks increased by 38 million barrels (mb) in the second week of May, driven by a 44 mb build in crude oil stocks [6] - Despite a 22% decline in crude prices since mid-January, refined product prices and refining margins have remained steady, with US gasoline cracks surging [5] - Structural downsizing of refining capacity in the US and Europe is expected to lead to a gasoline deficit, pulling supply from other regions [5] - Resilience in crude and refined product prices is anticipated to persist through the second quarter of 2025 before deteriorating in the latter half of the year [5] Base Metals Outlook - A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve has reduced recession probabilities, diminishing downside risks to base metals demand and prices [8] - Near-term base metals price forecasts have been revised higher due to macroeconomic shifts [8] - Concerns remain about the longevity of demand pull-forward from China, with a potential bearish reckoning expected in the second half of 2025 [10] Market Positioning and Flows - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest recovered by 4% week-over-week to $1.43 trillion, with significant inflows into metals and agricultural markets [9] - Contract-based inflows increased to a seven-week high of $27 billion, with nearly $15 billion flowing into metals markets [9] Tariff Implications - The US-China trade agreement includes a 90-day reprieve of tariffs, which is expected to boost China's GDP by approximately 1.5%, raising full-year growth to 4.8% [12] - The average tariff rate on China is projected to be 41%, while China's average tariff rate on the US is 28% [12] Future Projections - The report anticipates a tightening of supply in base metals, which could support prices later in 2025 [28] - The agricultural markets are expected to remain fundamentally driven in the short term, with potential macro-driven inflows contingent on trade developments [10] Additional Insights - The rig count in major tight oil basins decreased by three, with the Permian losing three rigs, although production impacts are expected to be delayed due to operational efficiencies [10] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and trade relations as they significantly influence commodity prices and market dynamics [10][19] Conclusion - The global commodities market is experiencing a complex interplay of demand recovery, structural changes in refining capacity, and macroeconomic factors, particularly influenced by US-China trade relations. The outlook for both oil and base metals remains cautiously optimistic, with potential volatility expected in the latter half of 2025.