26 September 2024 | 7:57AM HKT _ China eCommerce: Internet Trip expert session takeaways: Focuses on de-minimis exemption changes; ecosystem of Temu with its merchants We hosted an expert session on cross-border eCommerce with investors on Sep 25 as part of our China Internet Trip, where we invited Mr. Jiale Wang, General Manager of China Region at Acquco (an eCommerce merchant) to share his thoughts on Temu. Key topics discussed include 1) Potential impact from the changes in the de-minimis exemption on cr ...

30 September 2024 | 1:20AM HKT _ Navigating China Internet Lifting eCommerce on room for further re-rating; refreshing mega-cap TPs and our top ideas We lift our preference for eCommerce to within our top-two most-preferred sub-sectors alongside games (Tencent, on CL) within China Internet on the back of stronger-than-expected government pro-growth/easing policies, signs of a normalizing eCommerce market landscape where incumbent players have broadly stabilized their eCommerce market share in recent months, ...

_ 1 October 2024 | 6:25PM EDT USA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels) | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind | Jan Hatzius | | these exhibits can be downloaded here. Inte ...

_ 30 September 2024 | 9:51AM CST | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | China Industrial Tech | | | Considering further potential upside; quick thoughts on | | | policy easing scenarios | | Our China Industrial Tech coverage's share prices rallied by 16% on average over the past week. On Sep 24, PBoC, CSRC and NFRA unveiled a set of easing policies at a joint press conference. On Sep 26, President Xi chaired the September Politburo meeting and p ...

For the exclusive use of ACCOUNTS@KARUNADUCABS.COM Lower rates and sluggish deal recovery leaves downside risks across most Capital Markets stocks into 3Q 30 September 2024 | 4:11AM EDT Americas Capital Markets Prospects of faster rate cuts and stronger equity markets have propelled the risk-on behavior across many Capital Markets stocks in 3Q. That said, deal activity rates (M&A, ECM) remain sluggish - a continued headwind for many Alt Managers amid very stretched valuation multiples, organic growth for mo ...

27 September 2024 | 4:06PM EDT _ Americas Technology: Internet: Updating Our Top 10 Industry Themes & Key Coverage Sub-Sector Debates As we enter the last quarter of 2024, we take the opportunity to refresh our top 10 Internet industry themes for the next 12 months. While we refresh our themes with industry data around end demand trends, forward forecasts and key learnings from Q2'24 (link) and our recently concluded 2024 Communacopia +Technology Conference (link), we make no changes to the actual underlyin ...

30 September 2024 | 1:55PM EDT _ Global: GS Economic Indicators Update: Financial Conditions Ease in China on PBOC Policy Announcements | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------- ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gold market, specifically the dynamics of gold prices and central bank demand, particularly from emerging markets (EM) [2][9][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Forecast Increase**: The gold price forecast has been raised from $2,700/toz to $2,900/toz for early 2025 due to anticipated faster declines in short-term interest rates in the West and China, and the gradual pricing in of these rates into Western ETF holdings backed by physical gold [2][9]. 2. **Central Bank Purchases**: EM central bank purchases in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market are driving the gold price rally, with purchases averaging 730 tons annualized year-to-date, representing about 15% of global annual production estimates [3][13]. 3. **Long Gold Recommendation**: The recommendation to hold gold is reiterated based on three factors: lower global interest rates, structurally higher central bank demand, and gold's hedging benefits against geopolitical and financial risks [3][25]. 4. **Impact of Central Bank Demand**: Central bank purchases are expected to account for about two-thirds of the anticipated rise in gold prices to $2,900/toz, with ETF flows following Fed rate cuts contributing the remaining one-third [10][25]. 5. **China's Central Bank Activity**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been a significant player, reportedly purchasing gold for 18 consecutive months since November 2022, with estimates suggesting higher purchases than reported [15][16]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Nowcasting Model**: The nowcasting model used for estimating central bank demand is based on customs data and provides timely, country-level insights, contrasting with the quarterly estimates from the World Gold Council (WGC) [5][14]. 2. **Gold Bar Exports**: UK gold exports to the world, excluding Switzerland, have surged since mid-2022, indicating increased accumulation by EM central banks due to concerns over US sanctions and debt sustainability [21][24]. 3. **Discrepancies in Reporting**: There are discrepancies in gold trade data between the UK and Switzerland, suggesting that central bank gold may be in transit or stored in Switzerland, which is not fully captured in Swiss customs data [24][25]. 4. **Potential Risks**: Factors that could moderate the expected upside in gold prices include a softening in central bank demand, lower-than-expected ETF inflows, or a pullback in China's retail demand due to price sensitivity [26][25]. Conclusion - The gold market is experiencing significant upward pressure from central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, and the forecast for gold prices has been adjusted upward. The dynamics of interest rates and geopolitical risks continue to play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for gold as an investment.

2 October 2024 | 12:53AM HKT Neutral COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) Up to Neutral on structural supply chain complexity supporting higher valuation; assessing port operation suspension scenarios 601919.SS 12m Prie Target: Rmb13.80 Prie: Rmb15.71 Downside: 12.2% 1919.HK 12m Prie Target: HK$10.70 Prie: HK$13.04 Downside: 17.9% Herbert Lu +852-2978-0726 | herbert.lu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Simon Cheung, CFA +852-2978-6102 | simon.cheung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Dorothy Wong +852-2978- ...

30 September 2024 | 2:19PM HKT _ China: PBOC reiterated its commitment to enhancing monetary policy easing at Q3 MPC meeting | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Bottom line: | Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 \| | | The ...