September 23, 2024 05:59 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------| | | | | Kanzhun Ltd \| Asia Pacific | | | Chart of the Day - iOS Grossing | | | continued to decline WoW due | | | to Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday | | Key Takeaways Weekly grossing declined 14% WoW (vs. -33% WoW in the prior week), as recruitment activities slowed during the mid-Autumn Festival Holiday. Sep MTD grossing -3% MoM/-2% YoY (vs. -10% MoM in Sep 2023, +19% MoM/ +7% YoY in Aug 2024). 3Q24 QTD grossing ...

North America Credit Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N REIT Public Bond Covenants 2Q24 Master Cheat Sheet Our covenant database includes ~$253.5bn in $USD REIT public debt (see subtotals by sector below). Note that, through tenders, the amount outstanding is now ~$3.5bn less than the original face amount issued. Accounting for foreign-denominated debt (converted to $USD), we capture ~$286.1bn of bonds, including nearly $52.0bn maturing over the next two and a half years. In an attempt to simplify t ...

M Idea Midcap Advisors | North America September 23, 2024 04:01 AM GMT 50bp Cut Moves Us Toward Bull Case Fed is cutting rates faster than we expected in a soft landing environment. Recession risk even lower. Sponsor activity set to accelerate meaningfully. Election and regulatory clarity coming soon. We now bake in an overshoot of M&A activity relative to GDP above historical average in 2026-27. 50bp rate cut with a soft landing is positive for M&A activity. Rate cuts are here, and for the first time in de ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **nuclear power industry** in South Korea and its implications for the **data center** sector, particularly in relation to **GenAI** applications. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Nuclear Fleet Growth**: South Korea's nuclear power generation is projected to increase from **180 TWh** in 2023 to **231 TWh** by 2036, accounting for **35%** of the country's total electricity output, up from **31%** in 2023 [2][6][9]. 2. **Energy Policy Changes**: The newly enacted **Energy Dispersion Act** allows companies to secure power directly from nuclear plants, facilitating co-location of data centers at these sites, which is expected to provide stable, low-carbon power [3][25]. 3. **Regional Data Center Hub**: South Korea is positioned to become a regional hub for data centers due to its nuclear power capacity, shorter time to power, and the geopolitical landscape limiting operations in mainland China [4][43]. 4. **Beneficiaries of Growth**: Potential beneficiaries include: - **Korean Telcos**: Expected to benefit from rising demand for AI infrastructure, with **OW ratings** on KT and SKT, and **UW rating** on LGU [4]. - **KEPCO**: Anticipated mid-to-long-term catalysts from tightening electricity supply and improving nuclear mix [4]. - **Battery Manufacturers**: Companies like LGES and Samsung SDI are expected to see growth in their **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** business due to increasing demand for consistent power supply [4]. 5. **Capacity Reserve**: South Korea's capacity reserve is projected to reach **22-25%**, providing around **30 GW** of surplus power for new data centers [13]. 6. **Data Center Demand**: Approximately **80%** of existing data center capacity is located in the greater Seoul area, which is facing grid constraints, prompting a shift to suburban areas [29][30]. 7. **Government Incentives**: Regional governments are offering substantial subsidies to attract data center investments, recognizing their potential for job creation and economic growth [36][38]. 8. **PPA Opportunities**: New regulations allow for **Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)** in suburban areas, enabling direct negotiations for electricity supply, which could lower costs for data centers [33][34]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Global Trends**: The increasing pressure on global cloud hyperscalers to meet carbon targets is driving interest in co-locating data centers near nuclear power plants, which offer a stable and low-carbon power source [48]. 2. **Comparative Advantage**: South Korea has a significant advantage over Japan in nuclear generation capacity, with **26 units** and **26 GW** compared to Japan's **12 units** and **12 GW** [51]. 3. **Future Demand Projections**: The total addressable market for data centers in North Asia is expected to grow, with an estimated **4.6 GW** of additional demand by 2030, which could be serviced from South Korea [43]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic importance of South Korea's nuclear power capabilities in supporting the growth of data centers and GenAI applications in the region.

September 24, 2024 05:54 AM GMT M Foundation Video | Japan Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Takuya Osaka Equity Analyst Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5438 Toshiyuki Anegawa Equity Analyst Toshiyuki.Anegawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8914 Ryo Yagi Equity Analyst Ryo.Yagi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8938 Takuya Sato Equity Analyst Takuya.Sato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8913 Morgan Stanley Japan Research is here to help you navigate the investment debates that matter. ...

M Update Container Shipping | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Qianlei Fan, CFA Equity Analyst Qianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1875 Jasmine Qiu Research Associate Jasmine.Qiu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-8906 Tenny Song Equity Analyst Tenny.Song@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1737 September 24, 2024 10:34 AM GMT Spot Pressure Sustained The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has corrected by 37% from its recent peak since early July, led by corrections of 46-49% on Europe / Mediterranean route ...

North America Credit Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N Curveball: HG Credit Curve Opportunities 5s10s flattens to a new YTD low as long-end spreads outperform See page 19 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductor industry, particularly memory and technology sectors in Asia Pacific, with emphasis on companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron [3][4][32]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Semiconductor Cycle**: The semiconductor sales year-over-year (YoY) growth has peaked, indicating a transition from an optimistic phase to a more cautious outlook [6][4]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: DRAM and NAND supply chain inventories are at historically high levels, with DRAM inventory particularly elevated [20][22]. - **Production Expectations**: DRAM wafer starts are expected to increase by 15% YoY in 2025, primarily for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), while NAND wafer starts are projected to rise by 13% YoY in 2024 [22][20]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The valuation for DRAM has reversed from its peak, with multiples correcting between 41-60%, and average market capitalization falling by 32-56% [26][27]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious sentiment towards memory stocks, with companies like SK Hynix and Nanya Tech being viewed as more vulnerable in the current downcycle [32][35]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Cloud Capital Expenditure**: Cloud capital expenditure is projected to grow by 52% in 2024 (excluding Amazon) and 8% in 2025, indicating strong demand in the cloud sector [15][16]. - **CIO Insights**: 75% of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) report that recent innovations in Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) are directly impacting their IT investment priorities for 2024 [17]. - **Investment Ratings**: Various companies have received updated ratings, with Samsung Electronics rated as a safe haven due to its strong balance sheet, while SK Hynix has been downgraded due to concerns over its NAND business [32][35]. Company-Specific Insights - **Samsung Electronics**: Rated as a preferred investment due to its robust balance sheet and potential for margin improvement through price hikes [32]. - **SK Hynix**: Downgraded with a target price reduction from 260,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW, reflecting a 54% downside risk [32]. - **Micron Technology**: Rated as equal-weight with a target price of 140 USD, indicating a cautious outlook amid market volatility [32]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant transition, with high inventory levels and cautious market sentiment. Companies are advised to focus on innovation and strategic investments in cloud and AI technologies to navigate the current challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses various investment strategies and market outlooks from Morgan Stanley Research, focusing on sectors such as US equities, European equities, M&A activity, fixed income, global autos, and data center asset-backed securities (ABS) [1][2][5][7][11][12][14][17][19]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Equity Strategy**: - Morgan Stanley has moved to a neutral stance on defensives versus cyclicals due to stretched valuations in defensives and awaiting clarity from labor data. Historically, defensives outperform 3-12 months after the Fed's first cut but may underperform in the month following the cut [2][4]. - The recommendation remains to favor large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, as large-cap earnings revisions are supportive in a mid-to-late cycle environment [2][4]. 2. **Europe Equity Strategy**: - The "Soft Landing" playbook suggests that cyclicals in Europe should rebound, with a focus on rates-sensitive equities. Key sectors to overweight include software, semiconductors, and business services, while avoiding luxury and autos [5][6]. 3. **M&A Activity**: - M&A continues to lead IPOs across regions, with a notable increase in deal value by approximately 15% globally compared to the past two years. Rate cuts are expected to positively impact M&A activity, with forecasts indicating an overshoot of historical averages in 2026-27 [7][8][9]. 4. **US Fixed Income Strategy**: - Following a 50 basis point cut by the Fed, the outlook for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has turned bullish. The team recommends an overweight position in MBS due to improving technicals and reasonable valuations compared to other high-quality fixed income products [11][12]. 5. **Global Autos**: - China has shifted from being a source of demand to a source of supply in the global auto market, accounting for 29% of global auto sales and 32% of production in 2023. This excess capacity could impact global OEMs and their strategies in other markets [12][13]. 6. **Data Center ABS**: - The market for data center ABS is projected to double to $49 billion by 2027, driven by increased power consumption and capital expenditure in AI infrastructure. The outstanding ABS issuance is expected to reach over $8 billion in 2024 [14]. 7. **Asia/EM Equity Strategy**: - The potential outcomes of the upcoming US election are viewed negatively for Asia/EM equities, particularly in China, Taiwan, and Korea, with markets already pricing in some effects [17]. 8. **Korea Economics**: - Korea is facing demographic challenges as it transitions to a "super-aged society" by 2025, which could threaten economic growth. Structural reforms are underway but will take time to yield results [19][20]. Other Important Insights - The call emphasizes the importance of stock-picking during soft landing periods, highlighting that stock-specific risks often rise in such environments [6]. - The research also notes that the performance of Asia/EM supply chain diversification beneficiaries is already being reflected in market performance, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17]. - The demographic challenges in Korea are underscored by the government's declaration of a national emergency, with potential growth forecasts turning negative by 2040 [19][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into various sectors and their respective outlooks as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research.

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa North America United States Consumer Gaming & Lodging Industry U.S. Lodging Industry Date 24 September 2024 Industry Update Monthly Domestic Supply Monitor Review of Domestic Supply Outlook In this report, we examine the U.S. hotel pipeline as of the end of August. U.S. supply of ~5.7 mm rooms is up ~50 bps Y/Y and is essentially unchanged M/M. The active pipeline stands at ~762K rooms and is up 20.4% Y/Y and flat M/M. The ~762K rooms in the active pipeline represent ...