Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SHK Properties (0016.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate Development and Investment in Hong Kong Core Insights and Arguments - **Financial Flexibility**: The company maintains a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, with a recurring profit mix of approximately 70% [1] - **Sales Performance**: Robust sales in Hong Kong, with a significant increase in property sales, particularly from Cullinan Sky Phase 1, which is expected to contribute HK$11.1 billion in contracted sales to be booked in the second half of FY25 [1][5] - **Profit Forecast**: Expected flat profit for FY25, supported by good-margin bookings and land resumption profits of HK$1.1 billion, but offset by a provision of HK$1 billion for Cullinan Sky [1] - **Dividend Policy**: The company targets a dividend payout ratio of 40-50%, forecasting a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$3.80, yielding 5.1% despite a flat interim DPS [1][5] Financial Performance - **Revenue Trends**: Combined revenue for FY22/23 was HK$83.4 billion, with property sales declining from HK$35.4 billion in FY21/22 to HK$29.1 billion in FY22/23, but showing a significant increase in the first half of FY25 [5] - **Operating Profit**: Operating profit margin for combined operations decreased from 44.2% in FY21/22 to 41.6% in FY22/23, with expectations of further decline due to lower-margin developments [5] - **Net Profit**: Underlying net profit attributable to shareholders was HK$23.9 billion for FY22/23, with a forecasted decrease to HK$21.7 billion for FY23/24 [5] Market Position and Outlook - **Asset Turn**: The company has consistently demonstrated a strong ability for asset turnover, crucial given the upcoming sizable new launches estimated at 4,000 units over the next 10 months [1] - **Rental Income Growth**: Projected rental income growth of 6% and 10% year-on-year for FY26 and FY27, respectively, supported by a strong investment property pipeline [1] - **Geographical Focus**: The company is viewed as a proxy for the Hong Kong residential sector, benefiting from a stable rate outlook, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.2% [1] Additional Important Insights - **Debt Management**: The company aims to lower its gearing ratio to 17.8% by December 2024, with total debt expected to decline by 10% [5] - **Investment Properties**: Fair value of investment properties increased from HK$398.7 billion in June 2022 to HK$403.6 billion in June 2023, indicating a stable asset base [5] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the real estate sector is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in property sales and rental markets [1][5] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, market outlook, and strategic initiatives of SHK Properties within the real estate industry.

Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) 4Q24 NDR Takeaways Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$40.365 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: US$73.00, representing a 25% upside from the current price of US$58.61 as of February 26, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance and Strategy - **Operating Expenses**: Investors are concerned about the rationale behind the higher operating expenses (opex) as TCOM prioritizes revenue growth and market share over margins in its international business [1][2] - **Margin Guidance**: TCOM expects a net margin of approximately -10% as a reasonable assumption for the near term, which is attributed to its focus on international expansion [2] - **Breakeven Timing**: TCOM is already seeing decent profits in Hong Kong and Singapore, with expectations for similar growth in other Southeast and Northeast Asian markets. The company anticipates an operating margin of 20-30% in a stable stage, potentially higher for domestic China business [3] International Expansion - **Focus on Overseas Markets**: The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in markets like Thailand and Japan, where the focus is on gaining market share and fast revenue growth [2] - **ROI Approach**: TCOM employs a return on investment (ROI) approach to assess its investments, with higher ROI requirements in more profitable markets like Hong Kong [2] Competitive Positioning - **Market Size**: TCOM believes its key Asia market is at least as large as the China market, albeit more fragmented, making market share acquisition crucial [5] - **Unique Value Proposition**: TCOM offers a one-stop travel platform that includes attractions and visa services, along with high inventories from both direct suppliers and third parties [5] Operational Insights - **Headcount Growth**: The growth in personnel costs is driven by a mix of salary increases for domestic employees and overseas headcount expansion, particularly in Thailand. The company is also hiring high-end AI talent to improve its supply chain [4] - **Supply Chain Improvement**: TCOM is focused on enhancing its supply chain to expand future take rates, emphasizing the importance of direct connections with suppliers [4] Risks and Market Conditions - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Risks to TCOM's performance include macroeconomic growth rebounds, recovery in outbound travel, and rising competition from domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan [11] - **Pandemic Uncertainties**: Ongoing pandemic uncertainties and macroeconomic slowdowns could lead to lower travel demand, posing risks to the company's growth trajectory [11] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue for fiscal year ending December 2024 is Rmb 53.294 billion, with estimates of Rmb 61.245 billion for 2025 and Rmb 68.354 billion for 2026 [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2024 is Rmb 24.78, with projections of Rmb 23.71 for 2025 and Rmb 27.97 for 2026 [6] Conclusion Trip.com Group Ltd is strategically focused on international expansion and revenue growth, with a clear emphasis on market share over immediate profitability. While the company faces challenges related to operating expenses and competitive pressures, its unique value proposition and operational improvements position it well for future growth in the Asia Pacific travel market.

28 February 2025 | 2:13AM HKT Kingsoft Office (688111.SS): DeepSeek-R1 model available on WPS AI; 4Q24 NI beat at 43% YoY; Buy Kingsoft Office (KO) reported 4Q24 preliminary results (link) with revenues growth at 16% YoY in 4Q24, improving from 3Q24 +11% YoY, while 6% lower than our estimates, due to muted enterprise spending and limited revenues contribution from WPS AI. 4Q24 net income was better than expected at Rmb605m, or 9%/ 53% beats vs. our/ Bloomberg consensus estimates, and we attribute this to im ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Nonferrous Metals & Mining (Aluminum) in Japan Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry in Japan, specifically discussing the production and shipment statistics for January 2025 released by the Japan Aluminium Association [1][2]. Key Points Production and Shipment Statistics - In January 2025, production of aluminum rolled products was 124,000 tons, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.2% but a month-over-month decrease of 9.6% [2]. - Shipments of aluminum rolled products totaled 129,000 tons, which is up 2.8% year-over-year but down 6.2% month-over-month [2]. - Shipments of flat products were 80,000 tons (+2.1% YoY), extruded products were 50,000 tons (+3.8% YoY), and foil shipments were 7,100 tons (-3.7% YoY) [2]. Cumulative Production and Shipments - From April 2024 to January 2025, cumulative production of aluminum rolled products was 1,390,000 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% YoY, while shipments were 1,398,000 tons, down 0.4% YoY [2]. End Use Shipments - Shipments of sheet for cans were 30,900 tons, marking a significant increase of 13.6% YoY, driven by strong demand for drink cans [3]. - Automotive sheet shipments decreased to 16,100 tons, down 2.0% YoY, coinciding with a 7.4% YoY decline in domestic auto production in December 2024 [3]. - Shipments for other applications, primarily SPE plates, increased by 6.2% YoY to 5,400 tons [3]. - Shipments of extruded products for construction were 27,000 tons (+3.6% YoY), while housing starts fell by 2.5% YoY to 62,957 units in December [3]. Foil Shipments - Foil shipments for electrical machinery and equipment were 3,700 tons (-3.6% YoY), while shipments for capacitors increased by 7.2% YoY, and shipments for lithium batteries decreased by 11.8% YoY [4]. Market Outlook - The overall industry view is considered "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating that the performance of the aluminum sector is expected to align with broader market trends [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the first positive year-over-year reading for extruded materials in six months, suggesting a potential recovery in this segment [7]. - The data indicates a mixed performance across different applications, with strong demand in the beverage can sector contrasting with declines in automotive-related shipments [3][7]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in Japan is experiencing a complex landscape with varying demand across different sectors. While there are positive signs in certain areas, challenges remain, particularly in automotive production and some foil applications. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the industry adapts to changing market conditions.

Summary of Humanoid Robots Industry Research Industry Overview - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow from **USD 900 million in 2025** to **USD 73 billion in 2034**, reflecting a **CAGR of 63%** [3][15] - The average cost of humanoid robots is expected to decline from approximately **USD 58,000 per unit** to **USD 20,000 by 2032**, indicating an **11% annual decline** from 2025 to 2034 [3][15] Key Innovations - Figure AI's "Helix" Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model significantly enhances training efficiency, requiring only **500 hours of supervised data** to learn multiple tasks, compared to traditional methods that need **500 hours per task** [2][11] - The Helix model integrates decision-making and robot action, allowing humanoids to learn new tasks faster and more efficiently [2][11] Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot supply chain is still evolving, with most companies currently delivering samples or small batch productions [4][8] - Major components of humanoid robots include: - **Hardware components** (55% of Bill of Materials) - **Sensors** (17% of BOM) - **AI Chips/software** (13% of BOM) [4][8] Supplier Landscape - Several Chinese companies are identified as suppliers for leading humanoid players like Figure AI, Unitree, and Tesla [4][16][17] - Key suppliers include: - **Xusheng Group**: Magnesium alloy shell - **Everwin Precision**: Joint, bearing, sensor - **Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics**: Coreless motor [16][17] Historical Cost Trends - Historical data shows that industrial robot costs decreased by approximately **7% annually** from 2006 to 2017, while Tesla's production costs per vehicle declined by **10% annually** from 2017 to 2024 [3][12] Competitive Landscape - Key humanoid robot players include: - **Tesla**: Optimus (prototype launched in September 2022) - **Figure AI**: Helix model - **Boston Dynamics**: Atlas - **Agility Robotics**: Digit [24][26] Future Projections - The humanoid robot market is expected to see various scenarios: - **Bear case**: Market size reaching **USD 30.7 billion** by 2034 - **Base case**: Market size reaching **USD 73.1 billion** by 2034 - **Bull case**: Market size reaching **USD 380.7 billion** by 2034 [15] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is on the brink of significant growth, driven by technological advancements in training methods and cost reductions. The evolving supply chain and competitive landscape will play crucial roles in shaping the future of this market.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report covers multiple themes including global trade, artificial intelligence (AI), UK consumer sentiment, urbanization in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), power policy, automation in China, and the Indian automotive sector [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments Trade and Tariffs - The impact of US tariffs on China is analyzed, drawing parallels with Japan's past experiences. It suggests that tariffs could lead to a shift in China's trade focus towards emerging markets and increased domestic consumption [7][9]. - A 10% tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, while similar tariffs on EU goods could impact eurozone growth [14]. - The report indicates that elevated trade risks might prompt China to implement stronger property stabilization measures and fiscal easing [8]. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Government - AI has the potential to improve efficiency in public services, potentially saving governments 2-3% in spending, although the overall impact may be limited due to high fixed costs in areas like debt service and pensions [17][18]. - The report suggests that while AI can streamline administrative tasks, the expected productivity gains may be closer to 0.5% per year rather than the higher estimates of 1-1.5% [17]. UK Consumer Sentiment - A survey of 2,000 UK consumers reveals heightened concerns about the cost of living, with nearly half expecting a decline in real incomes. ESG considerations have also diminished due to economic pressures [23][24]. - Consumer spending priorities are shifting, with a noted decline in loyalty to grocery brands and a cautious approach to holiday spending [24]. Urbanization in the Gulf - The GCC is experiencing rapid urbanization, with smart city development becoming a key focus for national strategies aimed at diversifying economies away from oil dependency [26][28]. - Major cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi are investing heavily in sustainable infrastructure, with Dubai aiming to double its population by 2040 [28]. Power Policy - The UK is expected to make significant decisions regarding its energy policy in 2025, with a GBP 40 billion Clean Power 2030 Action Plan in place. Key events include renewables auctions and decisions on biomass and nuclear energy [32][33]. Automation in China - The forecast for China's factory automation market growth has been lowered to 0% for 2025 due to trade tensions, with a weak export outlook expected to dampen demand [37]. - Process automation is viewed as more resilient compared to factory automation, particularly in sectors like oil and gas that are less reliant on exports [38]. Indian Automotive Sector - The Indian automotive market is projected to see slight growth in passenger vehicle demand, with a potential recovery in commercial vehicles expected later in 2025 [44][45]. - Recent tax benefits are anticipated to boost demand for two-wheelers and entry-level passenger vehicles [45]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade policies and their implications for global economic relations, particularly between the US and China [9][14]. - The potential for AI to transform public sector efficiency is highlighted, but the report cautions against overestimating the immediate financial benefits [17][18]. - The evolving landscape of consumer behavior in the UK reflects broader economic uncertainties, which could impact retail strategies [23][24]. - The GCC's urbanization efforts are positioned as a critical component of long-term economic growth and diversification strategies [26][28].

Summary of Kingsoft Office Software Inc. (688111.CH) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingsoft Office Software Inc. (688111.CH) - **Industry**: Software Technology - **Rating**: Outperform - **Price Target**: CNY 290.00 - **Current Price**: CNY 352.50 - **Market Cap**: CNY 163,040 million Key Financial Highlights - **FY24 Revenue**: CNY 5,121 million, representing a 12.4% increase year-over-year - **4Q24 Revenue**: CNY 1,494 million, up 16.2% YoY - **4Q24 Operating Profit**: CNY 647.7 million, a 44% increase YoY - **4Q24 Net Profit**: CNY 605.1 million, a 42% increase YoY - **Individual Subscription Growth**: +23% - **Enterprise Subscription Growth**: +9% Core Insights - **Revenue Deceleration**: The company is believed to have reached a bottom in revenue deceleration due to the transition to a SaaS model and macroeconomic factors, setting the stage for potential stock price catalysts driven by AI advancements [3][2] - **SaaS Transformation**: The shift to a SaaS approach has led to improved upselling opportunities, particularly with higher-value AI modules, contributing to the growth in both individual and enterprise subscriptions [2][3] - **AI Monetization Potential**: Kingsoft Office is optimistic about its ability to monetize AI features, which are expected to enhance productivity through personalization and customization [3][2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25 Revenue projected at CNY 6,068 million, indicating a CAGR of 15.4% from FY23 to FY25 - Adjusted EPS expected to grow from CNY 3.26 in FY24 to CNY 3.67 in FY25 - **Valuation Metrics**: - Adjusted P/E ratio expected to decrease from 115.7x in FY24 to 102.8x in FY25 - Gross Margin projected to decline slightly from 84.0% in FY24 to 83.0% in FY25 [7][21] Risks and Challenges - **Government Policies**: Potential risks include changes in government digitalization policies that could impact the office license business and delay purchasing activities [22] - **Market Competition**: Increased competition from internet giants could pose a threat if they develop similar products and invest heavily in R&D [22] - **Economic Conditions**: Weaker macroeconomic conditions may continue to affect end-user spending and ARPU growth in the office subscription business [22] Investment Implications - **Recommendation**: The stock is recommended for accumulation on pullbacks, with a focus on the potential for revenue acceleration and AI product catalysts [3][15] - **Price Target**: The price target of CNY 290.00 suggests an 18% downside from the current price of CNY 352.50, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook [4][15] Additional Insights - **Performance Metrics**: The stock has shown strong performance with a 93.5% increase over the last 6 months and a 30.1% increase over the last 12 months [4] - **Individual Subscription Revenue Growth**: Individual subscription revenue growth is expected to reaccelerate, with projections indicating a YoY growth of 22.9% in 4Q24E [10][12] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Kingsoft Office Software Inc., highlighting its financial performance, strategic insights, risks, and investment recommendations.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Fund Manager Radar - February 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Australian equity market, particularly the performance and positioning of various sectors and stocks within the ASX 200 index. Key Points Sector Performance and Positioning - **Defensive Sector Inflows**: The average Australian active portfolio has shifted towards defensive sectors, particularly Communications, Healthcare, Staples, and Utilities, which saw an all-time high allocation at the end of January, increasing by +490 basis points [6][8][10]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: Fund managers are optimistic about cyclical sectors due to anticipated RBA rate cuts, with a noted shift towards resources, construction materials, and consumer discretionary sectors [22][23][25]. - **Financials and REITs**: These sectors remain deeply underweighted, with Financials showing a significant decline of -8.29% in active weight [9][12][46]. Love Index Insights - **Top Movers**: EVN has become the most loved stock, surpassing MPL, with 8 positive tier movers and 4 negative movers in January [27][28]. - **Performance Post-Publication**: Positive movers in the Love Index have outperformed negative movers by 41 basis points and 122 basis points over three and six months post-publication, respectively [17][19]. Manager Sentiment - **Rate Cuts**: Fund managers expect the RBA to commence an easing cycle in February, with a total of 75 basis points expected to be cut in 2025 [23][25]. - **US Tariffs**: There is caution regarding the potential impact of US tariffs, with concerns about timing and implications for global trade [24][25]. - **Reporting Season Volatility**: Anticipation of heightened volatility during the upcoming reporting season, driven by elevated starting valuations and geopolitical risks [25][26]. Sector Allocation Changes - **Monthly Changes**: In January, managers increased their allocation to Financials, Materials, and Staples while reducing their weighting in Industrials, Discretionary, and Tech [10][12][12]. - **Yearly Changes**: Over the past year, there has been an increase in Materials and Staples exposure, while Financials and Discretionary have seen reductions [12][13]. Stock-Specific Insights - **Performance of Selected Stocks**: - Positive movers include COH (+5.7%), EVN (+13.9%), and MQG (+4.1%) [5]. - Negative movers include ORG (-8.7%) and CAR (+8.0%) [5]. Conclusion - The report indicates a defensive positioning among fund managers in the Australian equity market, with a focus on cyclical sectors due to expected rate cuts. The Love Index provides insights into stock popularity, while caution remains regarding external factors such as US tariffs and upcoming corporate earnings volatility. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Fund Manager Radar for February 2025, highlighting sector trends, manager sentiment, and stock performance within the Australian market.

V i e w p o i n t | Adrienne Lui AC +852-2501-2753 adrienne.lui@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...

Please add me to your distribution list. | M | Dominic J Krummenacher Strategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Global Idea | | February 28, 2025 12:03 PM GMT | | | | G10 FX Strategy | Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ | | | Tariff Fatigue Setting In | | +44 20 7425-9781 | | | David S. Adams, CFA | | | | Strategist David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com | +44 20 7425-3518 | | Price action suggests to us G10 FX markets are starting to get | Wanting Low | | | | Strategist ...