North America Equity Research 21 February 2025 J P M O R G A N Tariffs & Sector Implications U.S. Equity Thematic Research Since President Trump took office, trade policy announcements have been rapidly evolving, with significant implications across sectors. Key developments include: (1) Potential 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico; (2) 10% additional tariffs on China; (3) A 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports; (4) Intentions to impose further tariffs on specific sectors, including pharmaceuticals, s ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 21 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. Ltd - A JPM China Opportunities Forum Takeaways: Cycle inflection gaining traction, humanoid robot development underway Shenzhen In ...

21 February 2025 NetEase (NTES US) FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (CNY) | Year to | 12/2024a | 12/2025e | 12/2026e | 12/2027e | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSBC EPS | 51.86 | 57.99 | 63.98 | 69.44 | | HSBC EPS (prev) | 49.56 | 56.26 | 62.91 | na | | Change (%) | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | na | | Consensus EPS | 49.24 | 54.69 | 59.50 | 60.85 | | PE (x) | 14.6 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | | Dividend yield (%) | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | | EV/EBITDA (x) | 14.2 | 12.4 | 10.7 | 9.6 | | ROE (%) | 25.5 | 25.5 | 24.8 | 23.5 | 52-WEEK ...

FICC Research Economics 21 February 2025 US Outlook 3.5 will turn heads at the FOMC Longer-run inflation expectations jumped to 3.5%, their highest level since 1995, and surveys point to some cooling in activity, on tariff fears. This complicates the FOMC's policy. The minutes of the January meeting indicate that participants are in no rush to adjust the policy rate. +1 212 526 8536 colin.johanson@barclays.com BCI, US Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10. Complete ...

February 21, 2025 01:39 AM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Korea Imposes 28-38% Tariff on Chinese Steel Plates What's new: On Feb 20, Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced preliminary anti dumping duties of 27.91%-38.02% on steel plates imported from China. Our view: We think the tariff on steel plate alone is not material, as steel plates exports (~1.47mnt in 2024) to Korea make up only ~1.3% of total China steel exports. Meanwhile, Korea is an imp ...

21 February 2025 | 2:31PM HKT Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: February 21 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish o ...

February 21, 2025 05:37 AM GMT Enterprise Storage | North America CQ4 Storage Preview: Few Multiple Expansion Catalysts Into Storage Prints Our checks and survey results point to a healthier storage spend environment, although we are hesitant on any meaningful acceleration. Most cautious PSTG into print on FY26 guide risk. NTNX our preference for LT time horizon, but see little catalysts into print. Key Takeaways Healthier spend environment, although we lean cautious on any meaningful acceleration. Checks a ...

J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Research 21 February 2025 EM Flows Weekly Turning the tide? EM bond funds see the largest inflow since early October EM Flows Weekly includes fund flow data, non-resident EM portfolio flow data, weekly retail fund flow models, EM-dedicated retail bond fund beta trackers, and historical cross-asset fund flows. – Within local currency, EM ex-China saw inflows of +$146mn (from + $60mn), and China-focused funds saw outflows of -$57mn (from -$274mn). – Within hard currency ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus for the first half of 2025 is on cash dividend yield, with the financial industry viewed as attractive due to competitive yields from insurers and securities compared to banks [1][2] - Higher long-term interest rates and localized measures from the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) are expected to aid insurers in implementing IFRS 17 and ICS smoothly, leading to higher ICS ratios by 2026 [1] Company-Specific Insights Stock Recommendations - **Cathay (2882.TW)**: Overweight rating with a higher dividend yield forecast for 2024 and improving recurring yield [2] - **Yuanta (2885.TW)**: Overweight rating with potential upside on dividend per share (DPS) [2] - **CTBC (2891.TW)**: Overweight rating, noted for the highest return on equity (ROE) and dividend yield [2] - **Fubon (2881.TW)**: Equal-weight rating due to limited upside potential [2] - **SinoPac (2890.TW)**: Equal-weight rating, valuation considered full with less dividend yield support [2] - **Chailease (5871.TW)**: Underweight rating, facing pressure from provision expenses impacting profit growth [2] Financial Performance - Taiwan financials' pre-tax profit reached a record high in 2024, with a 50% year-over-year growth [11][14] - Banks experienced a 12% YoY growth in pre-tax profit, driven by strong growth in wealth management and credit card fees [14] - Insurers saw a significant 250% YoY increase in pre-tax profit, largely due to trading gains [14] - Securities sector profits increased by 51% YoY, benefiting from a 50% rise in average daily trading (ADT) [14] Dividend Yield Insights - Insurers are expected to have competitive cash dividend yields compared to banks, with forecasts indicating yields of 4.4% for Fubon and Cathay [27][28] - The cash dividend yield for the financial sector is projected to be more attractive in 2024 due to strong profit growth [27] Key Debates and Considerations Impact of IFRS 17/ICS 2.0 - The adoption of IFRS 17 and ICS 2.0 is expected to have a positive impact, with manageable hedging costs anticipated around 1.3-1.5% in 2025 [15][30] - Most insurers are not under pressure to conduct rights issues due to supportive measures from the FSC [34] Profit Drivers for Banks - Banks' profits are expected to remain stable, with lower foreign exchange swap gains offset by net interest income (NII) and fee growth [38] - Historical data shows that earnings of banks only declined 6-12% during previous rate cuts, indicating resilience [38] Market Trends - The stock market is projected to have a greater impact on insurers than the bond market, with expectations of stable net worth in 2025 if the bull market trend continues [21] - The increase in NTD deposits has supported stock market investments and wealth management sales, with a notable rise in deposits post-2020 [41] M&A Activity - SinoPac is acquiring KTB, with the deal priced at 1.1x P/B and expected to have limited upside for dividend distribution due to increased leverage [58] Conclusion - The Taiwan financial sector is positioned for growth in 2024, with strong profit forecasts and competitive dividend yields. The adoption of new accounting standards and supportive regulatory measures are expected to enhance stability and profitability across the industry.

Foundation M Meet the new boss, same as the old boss U.S. Economics | North America History may not repeat, but it should rhyme: what the 2018-19 tariffs can tell us about tariffs today The 2018-19 tariffs caused manufacturing output to fall after a delay. This time around, the hit to growth could materialize faster. Either way, we think the Fed will be inclined to ease in support of activity so long as inflation pressures prove temporary, as we expect. Key Takeaways | M February 21, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Histo ...