February 21, 2025 01:39 AM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Korea Imposes 28-38% Tariff on Chinese Steel Plates What's new: On Feb 20, Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced preliminary anti dumping duties of 27.91%-38.02% on steel plates imported from China. Our view: We think the tariff on steel plate alone is not material, as steel plates exports (~1.47mnt in 2024) to Korea make up only ~1.3% of total China steel exports. Meanwhile, Korea is an imp ...

21 February 2025 | 2:31PM HKT Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: February 21 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish o ...

February 21, 2025 05:37 AM GMT Enterprise Storage | North America CQ4 Storage Preview: Few Multiple Expansion Catalysts Into Storage Prints Our checks and survey results point to a healthier storage spend environment, although we are hesitant on any meaningful acceleration. Most cautious PSTG into print on FY26 guide risk. NTNX our preference for LT time horizon, but see little catalysts into print. Key Takeaways Healthier spend environment, although we lean cautious on any meaningful acceleration. Checks a ...

J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Research 21 February 2025 EM Flows Weekly Turning the tide? EM bond funds see the largest inflow since early October EM Flows Weekly includes fund flow data, non-resident EM portfolio flow data, weekly retail fund flow models, EM-dedicated retail bond fund beta trackers, and historical cross-asset fund flows. – Within local currency, EM ex-China saw inflows of +$146mn (from + $60mn), and China-focused funds saw outflows of -$57mn (from -$274mn). – Within hard currency ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus for the first half of 2025 is on cash dividend yield, with the financial industry viewed as attractive due to competitive yields from insurers and securities compared to banks [1][2] - Higher long-term interest rates and localized measures from the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) are expected to aid insurers in implementing IFRS 17 and ICS smoothly, leading to higher ICS ratios by 2026 [1] Company-Specific Insights Stock Recommendations - **Cathay (2882.TW)**: Overweight rating with a higher dividend yield forecast for 2024 and improving recurring yield [2] - **Yuanta (2885.TW)**: Overweight rating with potential upside on dividend per share (DPS) [2] - **CTBC (2891.TW)**: Overweight rating, noted for the highest return on equity (ROE) and dividend yield [2] - **Fubon (2881.TW)**: Equal-weight rating due to limited upside potential [2] - **SinoPac (2890.TW)**: Equal-weight rating, valuation considered full with less dividend yield support [2] - **Chailease (5871.TW)**: Underweight rating, facing pressure from provision expenses impacting profit growth [2] Financial Performance - Taiwan financials' pre-tax profit reached a record high in 2024, with a 50% year-over-year growth [11][14] - Banks experienced a 12% YoY growth in pre-tax profit, driven by strong growth in wealth management and credit card fees [14] - Insurers saw a significant 250% YoY increase in pre-tax profit, largely due to trading gains [14] - Securities sector profits increased by 51% YoY, benefiting from a 50% rise in average daily trading (ADT) [14] Dividend Yield Insights - Insurers are expected to have competitive cash dividend yields compared to banks, with forecasts indicating yields of 4.4% for Fubon and Cathay [27][28] - The cash dividend yield for the financial sector is projected to be more attractive in 2024 due to strong profit growth [27] Key Debates and Considerations Impact of IFRS 17/ICS 2.0 - The adoption of IFRS 17 and ICS 2.0 is expected to have a positive impact, with manageable hedging costs anticipated around 1.3-1.5% in 2025 [15][30] - Most insurers are not under pressure to conduct rights issues due to supportive measures from the FSC [34] Profit Drivers for Banks - Banks' profits are expected to remain stable, with lower foreign exchange swap gains offset by net interest income (NII) and fee growth [38] - Historical data shows that earnings of banks only declined 6-12% during previous rate cuts, indicating resilience [38] Market Trends - The stock market is projected to have a greater impact on insurers than the bond market, with expectations of stable net worth in 2025 if the bull market trend continues [21] - The increase in NTD deposits has supported stock market investments and wealth management sales, with a notable rise in deposits post-2020 [41] M&A Activity - SinoPac is acquiring KTB, with the deal priced at 1.1x P/B and expected to have limited upside for dividend distribution due to increased leverage [58] Conclusion - The Taiwan financial sector is positioned for growth in 2024, with strong profit forecasts and competitive dividend yields. The adoption of new accounting standards and supportive regulatory measures are expected to enhance stability and profitability across the industry.

Foundation M Meet the new boss, same as the old boss U.S. Economics | North America History may not repeat, but it should rhyme: what the 2018-19 tariffs can tell us about tariffs today The 2018-19 tariffs caused manufacturing output to fall after a delay. This time around, the hit to growth could materialize faster. Either way, we think the Fed will be inclined to ease in support of activity so long as inflation pressures prove temporary, as we expect. Key Takeaways | M February 21, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Histo ...

Summary of 360 Security Technology (601360 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: 360 Security Technology - **Industry**: IT Services - **Date of Report**: 21 February 2025 Key Points AI Monetisation and Business Growth - The company has accelerated its AI monetisation, particularly through its AI search and office businesses, which are expected to significantly contribute to earnings growth [2][3][12] - The launch of 'Nano AI Search' on 27 November 2024 has resulted in over 4 million downloads and a monthly active user (MAU) count exceeding 1 million as of January 2025 [20][21] - Revenue from AI search is projected to be RMB 481 million in 2025 and RMB 566 million in 2026 [3][21] - The AI office VIP subscription model is expected to generate revenues of RMB 412 million, RMB 693 million, and RMB 1,009 million from 2024 to 2026, respectively [3][26] Financial Estimates and Adjustments - The 2024 EPS estimate has been revised to a loss of RMB 0.13, while the 2025 EPS estimate has been cut by 37% [4][33] - The company anticipates AI businesses to account for 5% of total revenue in 2024, increasing to 13% in 2025, and 19% in 2026 [29] - Traditional business revenue estimates have been reduced by 17% for 2024 and 18% for 2025 due to intense competition and declining demand [4][29] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been raised to RMB 12.10 from RMB 4.40, reflecting a market capitalisation of RMB 84.5 billion [5][36] - The stock is currently trading at an 8.4x 2026 estimated price-to-sales (PS) ratio, in line with peer averages [2][5] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 7,906 million, with a projected growth to RMB 9,862 million by 2026 [13][29] - The company expects a net profit of RMB 732 million in 2026, following a net loss of RMB 885 million in 2024 [33][34] - Gross margin estimates have been raised due to a shift towards higher-margin AI-related businesses, with projections of 65.3%, 67.1%, and 67.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [29][34] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights potential risks associated with the company's reliance on AI monetisation and the competitive landscape in traditional internet businesses [5][36] - The investment thesis may change if AI monetisation accelerates beyond current expectations [5][36] Other Notable Information - The company has over 400 million average MAU for its PC browser and navigation, indicating a large potential user base for its AI VIP services [26] - The AI VIP system launched in June 2024 has seen active membership growth, reaching over 400,000 by December 2024 [25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and financial projections for 360 Security Technology, reflecting its strategic focus on AI monetisation and the challenges faced in traditional business segments.

February 21, 2025 09:20 AM GMT Chinese Airports | Asia Pacific Consumption Slump in the Price; Await Catalysts We expect consumption pressure will continue to weigh on Chinese airports' earnings recovery in 2025. However, we think soft consumption is largely in the price. We await catalysts. Key Takeaways Duty-free spending is soft; we also think air traffic and air cargo volume growth are at risk... We remain guarded toward China's 2025 consumption outlook, considering soft GDP growth amid tariffs and pers ...

Summary of Fund Flow Insights - February 21, 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the equity fund flows in both Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM), highlighting trends in inflows and outflows across various regions and fund types. Key Points Developed Markets (DM) - **Equity Fund Inflows**: DM equity funds experienced inflows of **US$16.8 billion** during the week ending February 19, 2025, with US ETFs contributing **US$12.9 billion** to unit creation [1][5][29]. - **Bond Fund Inflows**: Bond funds saw inflows of **US$16.2 billion** during the same period [1]. - **Performance**: The MSCI AC World index rose by **1.5%**, indicating positive performance across most funds [1]. Emerging Markets (EM) - **Equity Fund Outflows**: EM funds faced outflows of **US$5.3 billion**, with China ETFs alone accounting for **US$4.7 billion** in redemptions despite a **5%** rally in the MSCI China index [2][5]. - **GEM Funds**: GEM funds reported almost net zero flows, as inflows into ETFs were offset by redemptions from non-ETFs [2]. - **Regional Insights**: - India experienced **US$1.6 billion** in Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows, while Taiwan saw **US$0.2 billion** in foreign inflows [2]. - Foreign flows in Korea remained weak, with nearly net zero flows [2]. Geographic Focus of Fund Flows - **North America**: Inflows of **US$12.5 billion** were noted, with a performance increase of **1.4%** [3]. - **Western Europe**: Inflows totaled **US$4.0 billion**, with a performance increase of **0.5%** [3]. - **Asia Pacific**: Japan saw negligible inflows, while other regions like EM Asia experienced significant outflows of **US$5.5 billion** [3]. Fund Type Analysis - **ETFs vs Non-ETFs**: The report indicates a trend where ETFs are attracting more inflows compared to non-ETFs, particularly in the US and Global markets [5][29]. - **Cumulative Flows**: The cumulative flows to equity funds versus bond funds were analyzed, showing a significant divergence in investor preferences [9][10]. Additional Insights - **Market Allocation**: The report emphasizes that market equity flows are estimated by multiplying fund flows into a fund group with the group's market allocation, providing a clearer picture of market dynamics [5][45]. - **ESG Funds**: The report also touches on flows to ESG funds, indicating a growing interest in sustainable investment options [112][120]. Conclusion The fund flow insights for the week ending February 19, 2025, reveal a robust recovery in developed markets, particularly in equity funds, while emerging markets continue to face challenges with significant outflows. The preference for ETFs over traditional funds is evident, reflecting changing investor behavior in the current market landscape.

A c t i o n | 20 Feb 2025 20:00:00 ET │ 36 pages North America Hardware & Storage Broader Recovery In Infrastructure Demand With Near Term AI Lumpiness, PC Demand More Tempered But Expected to Recover CITI'S TAKE Hardware OEMs are expected to report in the coming weeks. On a median basis, shares have modestly underperformed the S&P500 over a three- month period. From a fundamental perspective, overall infrastructure demand indicators (excluding AI) remain constructive with supply chain commentary (SNX, CDW) ...