更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 Global Research Asia Semiconductors Mid/Small Cap Semis: AI theme remains intact; revisiting design service Equities Asia Semiconductors Haas Liu Analyst haas.liu@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7348 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9 ...

The most obvious upside risk to growth is a gain in productivity, and frequent readers of Morgan Stanley research will know we are bullish on AI. Indeed, the level of productivity is higher than pre-Covid levels, and some tentative estimates could point to faster growth as well. A cyclically tight labor market no doubt contributes, and there could be some measurement error. But gains from AI do appear to be happening faster than in prior tech cycles, so we can rule little out. In our year ahead outlook we p ...

J P M O R G A N 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Commodities Research 17 February 2025 Commodity Market Positioning & Flows See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures. www.jpmorganmarkets.com {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM7mZxxDsxAx02hj0alK6B258vvpGfnQ4uw}]} Global commodity inflows support seasonally record high open interest value Global Commodities Research Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory. ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 10:01AM HKT GC Tech: Introducing TAM forecast for China vehicle cams; ADAS/AD to drive vehicle camera shipment growth and specification upgrades We expect vehicle camera shipments in China to reach 126m in 2025E and increase to 343m in 2030E, or a +22% CAGR, driven by the smart driving trend, and the technology feature could enhance driving safety, reducing the burden on drivers, and provide product differentiation to attract buyers. The smart driving trend is ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 17 February 2025 China Metals Activity Tracker Copper & Iron Ore at 4 month highs as China activity returns post New Year. China steel output is at strongest since 2021. Copper, aluminium & zinc inventories are at >5-year lows. We present our high frequency inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminium and zinc in China, for the week ended 14 February, the second week of China activity post Lunar New Year. Normal seasonality typic ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 U.S. Machinery and Global Software Electrical & Global Software: How Shifting From Training To Inferencing Impacts Data Center Investment - Expert Takeaways Chad Dillard +1 212 969 1017 chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 212 756 1857 mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA +1 212 823 3907 miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA +1 212 969 1226 firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA +1 212 969 6559 shelly.tang@bern ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 17 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Healthcare Takeaways from JPM's China Opportunities Forum We attended JPM's China Opportunities Forum in Shenzhen on February 13- ...

Summary of Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot (February 17, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil market, highlighting the mixed updates from various agencies regarding supply and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key Points Supply Forecasts - The EIA raised non-OPEC+ supply growth for 2025 by 0.13Mb/d to 1.54Mb/d and for 2026 by 0.15Mb/d to 1.02Mb/d, driven by higher US supply [4][48] - The IEA cut its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast for 2025 by 40kb/d to 1.43Mb/d, while OPEC revised it down by 60kb/d for 2025 and 0.1Mb/d for 2026, both to ~1Mb/d [4][48] - Overall, the EIA's outlook for non-OPEC+ supply in 2025 is the most optimistic at 55.0Mb/d, compared to IEA's 54.5Mb/d and OPEC's 54.2Mb/d [43] Demand Forecasts - Demand growth forecasts for 2025 were mixed: IEA raised its forecast to 1.1Mb/d, EIA to 1.36Mb/d, while OPEC remained unchanged at 1.45Mb/d [3] - UBS raised its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70kb/d to 1.19Mb/d, citing a lower base effect from 2024 [59] - For 2026, both EIA and OPEC kept their forecasts virtually unchanged at 1.05Mb/d and 1.43Mb/d respectively [3] Market Balance - The UBS model suggests a tightly balanced market for 2025 with a slight surplus of 0.31Mb/d due to higher US supply [59] - The IEA's balance for 2025 is now broadly in line with the EIA's, with a surplus forecast of 0.45Mb/d [23] - The EIA's bearish update for 2026 indicates a larger surplus of 0.98Mb/d, reflecting upward revisions to non-OPEC+ supply [23] Price Scenarios - The report anticipates Brent prices to remain in the mid-$70s, supported by OPEC+ cuts, but warns of potential negative impacts from slower GDP growth and substitution effects [9] - Upside price scenarios could see Brent prices rise towards $80/bbl if Iranian production drops or if OPEC+ compliance improves [11] - Conversely, a downside scenario could see prices drop into the $60s due to a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC+ [12] Geopolitical Factors - The start of the second Trump presidency has heightened uncertainties in the oil market, particularly regarding Iranian and Russian supply [2] - OPEC+ is expected to postpone the unwind of production cuts, currently scheduled to start in April [5] Long-term Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to peak at 106.0Mb/d in 2029 before gradually declining, influenced by rising efficiency and the impact of electric vehicles [61] - The report notes that gasoline demand may decline over time due to increased EV uptake, which could replace 3.6Mb/d of oil for passenger vehicles globally by 2030 [66] Additional Insights - The IEA reported no missing barrels in its February OMR, but noted an overall missing barrels calculation of 0.2Mb/d for 2024, indicating potential underestimation of demand or overestimation of supply [27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil supply and prices [59]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 16 Feb 2025 23:28:33 ET │ 14 pages China Economics What Could Sustain Tech-Fueled Market Rally? CITI'S TAKE China markets started the Year of the Snake with a rally of two halves amid the tech story and milder-than-expected trade disputes. Little evidence has indicated a significant improvement in macro fundamentals. From an economic perspective, we see a few catalysts that could potentially sustain and broaden the rally, including property market stabilizati ...

Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a service-oriented economy back to manufacturing, particularly in high-end and innovative sectors [1][7][14]. - The GBA's nominal GDP reached US$2 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 5.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from US$1.7 trillion in 2020 [1][7]. Key Insights - **Growth Drivers**: The growth driver is transitioning from the tertiary sector (services) to the secondary sector (manufacturing), with a notable focus on technology and smart manufacturing [2][3][21]. - **Sector Contributions**: The tertiary sector had gained share in the GBA's GDP over the past decade, primarily due to the financial sector's growth. However, the real estate sector's contribution is expected to decline due to a downturn in the property market [10][14]. - **Innovation and Diversification**: The rise of smart manufacturing and technology sectors is anticipated to replicate the success seen in China's auto industry transformation, with companies like UBTECH leading the way in humanoid robotics [3][17]. Company Focus: Luxshare Precision Industry - **Investment Recommendation**: Luxshare is highlighted as a potential tech transformer in the GBA, with a "Buy" rating and a price target of Rmb58.00 [4]. - **Revenue Composition**: Luxshare's revenue is heavily reliant on Apple, accounting for approximately 75% in 2024E. However, this is expected to decrease to 49% by 2027E as the company diversifies into edge AI, electric vehicles (EV), and high-performance computing [4][24]. - **Growth Forecast**: Luxshare's earnings are projected to double, with significant growth in its auto and communication segments, forecasting a 20% and 43% revenue CAGR respectively from 2025 to 2030 [24]. Economic Projections - The GBA's nominal GDP is forecasted to reach US$2.1 trillion by 2027E, with growth expected to decelerate in line with the overall Chinese economy [1][7]. - The secondary sector is anticipated to regain share in the GBA's economy, driven by advancements in manufacturing capabilities and the development of a global EV supply chain [14][17]. Risks and Considerations - Key risks for Luxshare include weaker-than-expected demand in downstream markets, particularly in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, as well as potential challenges in new product introductions impacting gross margins [30]. Conclusion - The GBA is positioned for a significant transformation with a shift back to manufacturing, presenting long-term growth opportunities, particularly in technology and smart manufacturing sectors. Luxshare is identified as a key player benefiting from this transition, with a strong focus on diversifying its revenue streams away from reliance on Apple.