Looks like we have breaking economic data. Thank goodness we still have Michael McKee with us here on set. We're getting what is some services because we got the manufacturing yesterday and it looks like we're missing the mark in terms of the headline number. Mike Yeah, the headline number comes in at 50, which is right on the line between contraction and expansion, and it is lower than what was anticipated.We were looking for a 51.7% and so we dropped from 52 to 50. Even prices paid goes up a little bit. I ...

Monetary Policy & Data Dependency - The Open Market Committee member emphasizes the utmost importance of high-quality data for monetary policy decisions [2] - The member hopes to receive necessary employment and inflation data before the next voting decision in approximately six weeks [2] - The member expresses uncertainty about the continuation of rising food and gas prices [3] Inflation & Housing Costs - The member believes a significant disinflation will be driven by shelter costs, influenced by population growth changes [5] - The member expects to see some reversal of rising prices [4] - Housing costs are identified as the largest component of the inflation process [4] Economic Outlook & Neutral Rate - Current conditions include inflation at approximately 3%, unemployment at 43%, and growth in the third quarter [5] - The member's concept of a neutral rate is around 05% based on a weighted average [6] Policy Impacts & Deregulation - Past policies, such as high population growth and large fiscal deficits, were seen as pushing interest rates higher [6] - Deregulation is expected to accelerate, expanding output by removing regulations [9] - Policies can expand the supply side and potential output [8]

The thing to watch. Here are what are moderate Democrats in the Senate doing. Leaders Schumer and Jeffries are not talking with Johnson and Thune.There is there is essentially no progress. Three days in. The question is, is how much pressure does Trump and the White House put on Democrats.They've threatened these firings. They threatened to cut more spending. That has not yet materially materialized, but that could very well come later today.The other question is, will makers are going to vote again and the ...

Government Shutdown Impact - The fiscal impact of the government shutdown is expected to be minimal initially, but the focus is on the potential impact on the labor market [1] - Approximately 40% of federal workers, around 900,000, may face furlough, and all federal workers could experience pay delays [2] - Delayed employment information, initially expected on October 3rd, adds to the uncertainty [3] - Historically, shutdowns have had a limited effect on bonds and stocks, but stretched equity valuations could make this time different [3][4] Equity Market Concerns - The stock market's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, around 22 times during the year, raises concerns about future returns [5][6] - Historically, buying into the S&P 500 with a forward P/E multiple of around 22 has resulted in muted returns of plus 2% to minus 2% over the next ten years [6] - Investors' patience may wane as the shutdown continues, potentially leading to a shift from stocks to credit [5][6] Private Credit Market Dynamics - Strong demand exists for alternatives in credit, particularly private credit, due to its contractual nature in a volatile market [7] - Rapid growth in private credit has raised concerns about the market overheating and attracted regulatory scrutiny in some European countries [8] - Increased demand from asset managers with private credit funds and private equity sponsors requires careful deal selection [9] - There has been a degradation in underwriting quality and covenant terms, along with compressing spreads, indicating a need for caution [10] - High yield bonds have seen significant issuance, reaching $60 billion this month, twice the normal monthly amount and levels not seen since 2021, indicating demand in both public and private markets [10] Economic Indicators - Soft data has recovered from April lows, but hard data, such as monthly spending, shows a bifurcation, with higher-income consumers still spending while lower-income consumers may be in a recession [13] - Relatively weak data for travel in August and hotel occupancy could signal that higher-end consumers are becoming more cautious [14]

MORE IN 30 MINUTES TIME ALONGSIDE MATT MILLER AND OPEN INTEREST. NO PAYROLL DATA SO FAR TODAY, NOT EXPECTING ANY BECAUSE OF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. JOINING US TO DISCUSS IS MICHAEL MCKEE.THE LAST TIME WAS 2013 TO HAVE IT DELAYED LIKE THIS. MIKE: WE GOT THE NUMBERS IN 2019 WHEN THINGS WERE SHUT DOWN. IT IS WEIRD.JOBS DAY, YOU GO TO DANI FIRST. WE HAVE DISAPPOINTING NEWS IN TERMS OF THE JOBS REPORT, NO JOBS CREATED OR LOST BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE DATA. IF WE HAD DATA, HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IT WOULD HAVE BE ...

>> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO THE PULSE. WE WILL DISCUSS THE MARKETS BEFORE THAT AND WE WILL GET A STATUS UPDATE ON THE U.S. AND THE TRANSFER REPORTED GENERALLY.PRESIDENT TRUMP IS FLASHING THOUSANDS OF JOBS THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE GOVERNMENT. FOR MORE, WE ARE JOINED BY STEPHANIE BAKER. STEPHANIE, WILL THEY BE LEGAL OR IS AN EMPTY THREAT.STEPHANIE: MANY ARE ARGUING THEY WOULD BE ON THE GOAL. BUT THE THIRD IS REAL AND THIS SHOWS T ...

Big issue of next gen. And that's my personal take as a mother is how do you give them and enough space for them to. I don't believe in forcing businesses down to your children.I think our big challenge is how do you give them enough space for them to express themselves, create experience, fail, retry the whole process that I think I was lucky to have and give them that space. Yeah, failing I think is fantastic. Failing is the best way to learn.I feel a lot there. A lot. What did you learn from failing.How ...

U.S Economy & Market Outlook - U S economy is in good shape with strong tailwinds, but headwinds are causing underperformance; acceleration expected into 2026 [1][2] - Government fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending are key tailwinds, balanced by trade policy implementation and geopolitical fragility [2][3][4] - Overall growth trajectory from December to December will likely be slightly below 2%, but an acceleration is expected into 2026 [4] - The upper end of the economy is spending strongly, while the lower end faces more constraints; labor softness and inflation need monitoring [6][7] - Markets run in cycles, and a drawdown in equity markets is possible in the next 12-24 months, but the potential of new technology is exciting [13][14][15] M&A and Strategic Priorities - Dealmaking is picking up, especially in the U S, driven by a changed regulatory environment; large cap M&A (companies $10 billion or larger) is up 100% year-over-year [16][18][19] - Goldman Sachs' priorities include serving clients, executing a strategic plan, and growing earnings by investing in investment banking/trading and asset/wealth management [21][22][23][24] - Goldman Sachs has increased its market share by approximately 350 basis points in the investment banking and trading business over the last five years [23] Technology & AI - AI is transforming the business of work, enabling people to be more productive and have better information [33][34] - AI allows for greater coding productivity and efficiency, and accelerates automation in operational systems [37][38] - Goldman Sachs has 12,000 engineers and is investing heavily in technology, including AI, to enhance productivity and growth [32][38] - While some jobs may be reduced, Goldman Sachs anticipates overall headcount to increase in 5-10 years due to firm growth enabled by technology [41][42] - There is complacency around risk-taking in the AI space, and a reset or drawdown is likely at some point [49][51] European Market - Europe needs to deploy more capital into the tech risk ecosystem to build globally significant tech businesses [26][27] - The European Union should operate more as an economic union to take advantage of its population and encourage innovation [29] - The European Commission should capture the urgency of capital deployment, encourage risk-taking, and consolidate the banking and exchange systems [30][31]

>> GOOD MORNING. THESE ARE THE STORIES THAT SITE YOUR AGENDA. DATA DELAYED.THE ALL-IMPORTANT U.S. JOBS AND GETS HIT BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. PRESIDENT TRUMP VOWS THOUSANDS OF JOB CUTS, RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON DEMOCRATS TO END THE IMPASSE. THE BATTLE TO CREATE A SPANISH BANKING GIANT.THE BBB -- BBA CHAIRMAN CLASHED. AN EXCLUSIVE BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW AS THEY SEEK TO SWAY INVESTORS DURING THE FINAL DAYS OF THEIR TAKEOVER BATTLE. PLUS, TAKE OUT POSTPONED.BOEING 777X ONE START COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS UNTIL 2 ...

Paul, we have to start with the geopolitics here because there's a lot of them, as we were just speaking to Peter about. Does the shutdown risk Trump all of that pun not intended. I don't think it matters really very much at all from what we're seeing so far, Kristie.If you look at global equity markets, they just continue that much higher. It's really all about this air and air enthusiasm. And we're feeling that particularly strongly in Asia this week.We've had some Oatman from open air kind of moving arou ...