It's a bear market that's bouncing scarlet. We have to put it in context. It's August.It's a perfect time of year to flush out the shorts in a bear market, get everybody excited, and then go back down. So it's finally bounced above its 200 day moving average, which is rolled over. But the key way I look at Bitcoin is it's at a horrible performing asset with a high correlation in the stock market, and it has a major risk of going down.More good examples on the year. It's down about 20%. Stock market's up abo ...

Market Dynamics & Credit Issuance - Hyperscalers' debt issuance forecast stands at $250 billion for the year, with actual issuance having reached $220 billion[8] - September investment-grade debt pipeline is projected at approximately $200 billion, exceeding August volumes but remaining below record levels[7] - Total capital need in the market is estimated at roughly $10 trillion, offset by an equal $10 trillion in economic productivity[10] - Foreign demand for U.S. credit shows regional divergence, with strong inflows from Taiwan contrasted by Japanese buyer hesitation due to high currency hedging costs[26][27] Macroeconomic & Interest Rate Environment - U.S. Treasury yields and credit spreads exhibit a recently positive correlation, where higher yields correspond to slightly wider credit spreads[3] - Interest rates have declined from a peak in the low 5% range down to approximately 3.7%, improving corporate debt coverage levels[16] - Market expectations incorporate a call for three rate hikes beginning in December, which is anticipated to benefit the carry of floating-rate loans over fixed-rate instruments[31] Sector & Risk Analysis - Lower-quality triple-C issuers face a looming refinancing maturity wall approaching in 2028, requiring proactive debt management starting in the fourth quarter[13][14] - Consumer spending exhibits a K-shaped economic divergence, with lower-income cohorts struggling and retail sales softening at the lower end[23] - Institutional asset managers favor banks over corporates and prefer the belly of the yield curve while avoiding longer-duration assets[30]

Yeah, I think it's really the US same store sales myth. So when you look at that number and you look at why they missed, I think the misses largely due to the pharmacy deflation issue. And that issue isn't a one time issue.It's not going away just this quarter, last quarter of the 100 basis point impact to the comp sales this quarter was 125. Basis point had been so clearly increasing. And the worry is for the next two quarters, you'll continue to see that headwind.And if trends continue, it could be even m ...

Given that the drop in yields was fairly fleeting. We've seen them come right back. The round trip.Do we presume that this increase buyback announcement is the start of something more, that this could be like a new regime. Well, if it's not the start of something more, then we're simply going to see longer dated yields drift higher. Now there's a conversation to be had about whether or not the size of 20 and 30 year auctions are too large in this environment.Not necessarily our call, but I wouldn't be surpr ...

Industry Trends and Applications - Thousands of companies showcase latest humanoid robots focusing on practical uses for households and industry rather than just entertainment [1] - Exhibitions feature precision assembly line workers and household robots capable of picking up laundry and operating washing machines [1] - Interactive robots demonstrated include models capable of playing ping pong and table hockey [2] Market Outlook and Commercialization - Industry leadership achieves successful market debut in Shanghai, becoming China's first listed humanoid robot company [2] - Market projections indicate humanoid robots can reach mass market popularity within a decade once key nagging factors are resolved [2] - Commercial entry is forecasted to take off within 2 years, conditional upon at least 80% of tasks being successfully completed by robots [3]

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prepares for his debut at Jackson Hole amid market scrutiny over long-term yield control [2][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly affirms that monetary policy remains in a good restrictive place to steer inflation back to the 2% target [10][37][39] - Federal Reserve discussions consider reducing the frequency of policy meetings from 8 down to 6 times per year to optimize data alignment [105][106] Treasury & Government Debt Markets - U.S. 30-year Treasury yield peaks at 5.33%, marking the highest level since 2007 before retreating slightly [6] - U.S. public debt reaches a landmark milestone of 40 trillion dollars, driven largely by entitlement expenses and interest costs [26][27] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announces plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated debt, starting with initial buybacks of 4 billion dollars and quarterly operations sized at 32 billion dollars [1][11][13] - Texas municipal borrowing costs trade at an average of 0.3% (or 30 basis points) higher than California, translating to an additional 3 million dollars annually for every 1 billion dollars borrowed due to anti-ESG legislation [93][97] Corporate Credit & Private Market Trends - Moody's highlights that the volume of private debt has surged to 481 billion dollars, prompting calls for stricter regulatory oversight on private credit ratings [45] - Alphabet issues debut Aussie dollar "Kangaroo bonds" at a yield just under 7% to fund capital expenditures [56][59] - Hyperscaler public debt issuance targets 250 billion dollars for the year, with current totals reaching 220 billion dollars [67]

Market Valuations and Economic Cycle - Equity market valuations are extremely stretched, with the Shiller CAPE ratio standing at 41 compared to the historical average of 17 over the last 25 to 30 years and 44 in December 1999 [1][2] - The real equity risk premium offers an excess expected return of 1.1%, which is less than half of the average seen since 2010 [2] - The Buffett Indicator, representing the US market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, is approximately 240%, significantly exceeding Warren Buffett's risk threshold of 100% [3] - Artificial intelligence investments are driving a massive economic boom, but the rate of investment increase is projected to decelerate by 2027, leading to lower profit growth expectations and compressed profit margins [4][5][8] Industry Financing and Overcapacity Risks - AI hyperscalers need to generate 2 trillion US dollars in revenue to justify their capital expenditures [6] - Broadcom helped arrange a financing deal ranging between 60 billion and 70 billion US dollars [7] - Private equity and private credit are increasingly involved in funding, creating greater opacity in how capital is raised, while suppliers are lending to hyperscalers [9] - The AI infrastructure buildout risks mirroring past historical overcapacity cycles seen in the dot-com boom, the telecom boom, and the railroad buildout, moving from 7 or 8 competing innovators down to 2 or 3 viable long-term firms [13][14][20] Macroeconomic and Fiscal Risks - Long-term Treasury yields have risen significantly, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.3% [21] - The US budget deficit has reached 6% of GDP against a total national debt of 40 trillion US dollars, creating unsustainable fiscal paths and upward pressure on bond yields [23][25] - Social Security faces the risk of full insolvency within a few years if policymakers in Washington fail to address the underlying fiscal and budget problems [27][28]

Tell us about the specific policies that Texas has in place that you suggest may be resulting in higher interest rates relative to California. Great to be with you. 2021 The governor of Texas and the legislature in Texas passed what was known as SB 13, legislation that prohibited any financial institution from underwriting, insuring participating in state and local government debt for Texas if they were a part of this commitment to have zero emissions by 2050, known as the Net Zero Bank Alliance, and every ...

The CFTC has a lot of authority and we're not afraid to use that authority. The president has promised market structure for the crypto industry and that's what we're going to do whether we have a bill or not, but we're optimistic the bill is going to set the standard. We really want the United States to lead and having legislation clear law on the books is the most surefire way to lock in crypto market structure.And so that's what we're focused on today. But for my clarity, if clarity doesn't pass, you're s ...

And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick here with Sally Bakewell taking you through to that closing bell. It's a global simulcast.Carol Massar joins us from the radio booth. Emily Griffel in today for Tim Sandvik. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms.Television, radio. Our partnership with YouTube here on a Thursday afternoon, where bond yields are up and stocks are down about Carol Massar stocks as we speak, hitting session lows. Yeah ...