Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley initially targeted 6,500 for the S&P 500 this year, slightly below the median of 6,600 [1] - The call for 2026 is a continuation of this year's outlook, expecting to end up a little above target [2] - The firm maintained its targets, anticipating a tough first half followed by a strong second half due to administration policies [3] - The market is expected to see more positive effects from fiscal policy in 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve's "run-in hot strategy" [4] Economic Strategy - The "run hot" strategy, aimed at growing out of debt and deficit issues, involves higher growth and inflation, requiring Fed tolerance [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate again, benefiting earnings growth if the Fed remains supportive, similar to the situation in 2021 [7] - The economy is transitioning from a rolling recession that bottomed in April to an accelerating phase with both real growth and inflation [10] Sector Preferences - Favored sectors include consumer discretionary, financials, small caps, some healthcare, and software over semiconductors [8] - Consumer discretionary is expected to perform well due to pricing power in an inflationary environment [8] Consumer Impact - Consumers can tolerate higher inflation with rising wages, which is part of the policy plan, including restricting immigration to boost real wage growth [11] - A three-year recession in consumer goods with low volume growth is now changing, driven by policy changes and pent-up demand [11][12]

AND YOUR NEXT GUEST SAYS MORE DOWNSIDE MAY BE COMING. HE DOWNGRADED COSTCO TO A CELL FROM A NEUTRAL. JOINING US NOW IS BILL KIRK COVERS RETAIL AT ROTH CAPITAL PARTNERS.BILL THE CALL IS GETTING A LOT OF ATTENTION. SO WE APPRECIATE YOU COMING ON POWER LUNCH. WHAT'S THE PRIMARY THESIS BEHIND THAT SELL RATING.>> YEAH, THANKS FOR HAVING ME. THE PRIMARY THESIS IS WHEN YOU UNPACK THE QUARTER, THERE'S A LOT OF KEY METRICS THAT ARE GOING THE INCORRECT WAY. IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT TRAFFIC, WHETHER IT'S IN THE UNITED ST ...

SUSTAINABLE. WELL, METALS ARE SOARING. SILVER AND GOLD ARE ON PACE FOR THEIR BEST YEAR SINCE 1979. COPPER IS ON PACE FOR ITS BEST YEAR SINCE 2009.SO LET'S DRILL DOWN ON THESE TRADES, STARTING WITH COPPER, AND SEE WHAT 2026 MIGHT HOLD. PHIL STROBEL IS THE CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT BLUE LINE. PHIL, I NEED TO EAT A LITTLE CROW HERE.I CAN'T REMEMBER WHO I WAS DISCUSSING THIS WITH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. AND I SAID, EVEN IF THE COMMODITIES PERFORM WELL, THE STOCKS OFTEN DON'T. THEY CAN BE VERY CYCLICAL.TH ...

There's also a chance he says that it could hit a three trillion market cap by the end of that year. For more, let's bring him in. He's here on set with me, Dan Ives as Wed Bush, global head of technology research.Welcome. >> Great to be here. >> You could have picked an easier one.You know, maybe Nvidia, like why Tesla to you. Is it still so clear for all the ups and downs for the auto industry, for all of its ambitions, everything they want to do is always delayed. Granted, the market cap, you know, is st ...

Steve Leeman is here at Post9 with the numbers. And Steve, this question about how inflation is impacting holiday spending. >> We're calling it inflation the red-nosed reindeer.How it's really leading spending. Uh it's factoring heavily into consumers views on spending this holiday season. The All-American Economic Survey finding it's affecting where people choose to shop and of course how much.Of the thousands people surveyed across the nation, uh here are some of the results you can see there. 61% say the ...

Let's bring in Charlie Babrinskcoy. He's the vice chair of Aerial Investments. Charlie, it's great to see you again.Welcome. >> Thank you. Welcome back, Kelly.Great to see you. >> Thank you. And I you I one of my most memorable things right before I I think I I went out was that you had said to everybody, be careful with Oracle here.Think twice before getting involved. And that was maybe I don't know 30 40% from where we are now. So what what do you do with the stock now.Yeah, I think my exact words were tr ...

Sure. No, it's a great point though. Christina, thanks.We appreciate it. Christina parts and Nevis. Let's break it down further with someone who was just part of a big chips forum out in Asia.Stacy Rasg is a senior analyst at Bernstein covering the US semispace. Stacy, it's great to see you. I was just talking with Dan Ies backstage and who says he thinks the play is really to kind of make sure that China stays hooked on these chips so that they don't, as Christina was saying, develop their own chip uh indu ...

Not to put it too strongly, uh, Peter Spino joins us now from Wolf Research. Peter, it's great to see you. Let's start with the issues that you see facing Paramount.>> Well, Paramount has a rich library, but they're competing in a game defined by scale from a subscale position. Paramount has fewer streaming subscribers. It has a lower revenue per streaming subscriber.And the productivity of the film and TV studio over the last 10 to 20 years has been lower than others in Hollywood. And so while the library ...

Reuters meantime is reporting that Nvidia may increase H200 chip output because of robust demand over in China. Sounds like everything's fine for AI demand. Christina parts Nevis has more in tech check.Hi Christina. >> Yeah, everything's fine. Back to you.But let's talk about that. Nvidia evaluating adding H200 production after Chinese orders according to Reuters exceeded current output. But there are two big questions.Can they actually manufacture more. And will China even buy them. On the MA manufacturing ...

Calls of the daytime. We start with LBS today. Uh that's Las Vegas Sands upgraded to a buy from neutral at Goldman.The target to 80 from 64. So it already got past 64. Now they bump it up to 80.Joe T, you own this name. >> I think it's the right casino name to own because of its balance sheet. A little bit better.Sorry Jimmy Leventhal, if you're out there watching than win. Also consistent on their buyback strategy. Strong exposure to Macau, strong exposure to Singapore.Macau only that growth to intensify i ...