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Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-10-08 12:27
Economic Analysis - The two-speed economy creates a "Goldilocks" scenario, where economic weakness justifies continued stimulus [1] - Asset owners benefit from this scenario [1] Investment Strategy - The industry suggests being an asset owner to benefit from the economic conditions [1]
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-10-08 12:27
Market Outlook - The market is currently in a bubble, with a parabolic leg approaching, and Q4 will offer a preview of more significant activity expected next year [1] - This bubble is driven by narratives of debasement and AI, operating on fear rather than hope, pushing investors to buy gold/BTC and gain AI exposure [2] - The narratives haven't fully permeated society, but are expected to [2] - The economy is sustained by AI capital expenditure, showing resilience despite tariff headwinds, but with a two-speed dynamic where high-end and asset owners are outperforming [8] - A strong Q4 for BTC is anticipated, followed by a downturn due to the 4-year cycle debate, and then a rebound [9] Potential Catalysts - A Trump-led Fed hijacking is expected, involving rate cuts and yield curve control, potentially starting in May of next year [4] - A shift in USG debt issuance towards treasury bills is expected to lower long-dated bond yields, stimulating the economy [5] - Unlocking GSEs to increase leverage and buy mortgage bonds is expected to lower mortgage spreads and stimulate the economy [6] - Stimulus checks are expected to be airdropped to US citizens, potentially as part of a budget reconciliation bill, to boost the economy before the midterms [7] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to remain long over the next 12 months, strategically adjusting portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks [9]
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-10-08 11:59
RT Mikli (@CryptoMikli)Trader Mayne explains why he took the same BTC short setup as Ansem"I get shit wrong all the time. Ansem is a very good trader, he knows when he's wrong."“You have to get to a point where you can see the market both ways, or you’ll give back all the money you made in the bull market.” ...