Market Liquidity & Potential Risks - Reverse Repo (RRP) usage has collapsed by 99% from a peak of $22 trillion to $8-10 billion, signaling a potential liquidity crisis [2] - The belief that $7 trillion in Money Market Funds (MMFs) will flood into equities or crypto is false, as MMF capital flows into T-Bills, repos, or the Fed's RRP facility, draining liquidity from the real market [3] - US banks hold approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses, potentially pressuring balance sheets [4] - Insider selling has reached its largest amount in the last 2-3 years, coinciding with significant retail investor inflows, a potentially toxic mix often seen at cycle tops [7] Crypto Market Analysis - Large wallets have slowed selling since late September, and short-term holders already capitulated in August–September [4] - Bitcoin has never decoupled from stock-market liquidity; a repo-driven shock in equities could initially cause BTC to dip before benefiting from a post-crash liquidity wave [4] - Leveraged longs are at cycle highs, while liquidity is collapsing, mirroring the delusion seen before the 2022 crash [4] - A massive bearish divergence is forming on the weekly chart, similar to the divergence that preceded the end of the 2021 bull market [4] MicroStrategy (MSTR) Analysis - MicroStrategy raised its preferred-share yields from 10% to 1025% (up from 9% only weeks ago), indicating potential funding strain [6] - Constant share dilution has caused MSTR's mNAV premium to underperform BTC by approximately 25% in 6 months [6] - Without fresh inflows, MicroStrategy's structure risks becoming a closed-loop Ponzi flywheel, similar to Terra/Luna [6]

Insider Trading Activity - Insider trading activity shows a strong selling trend, with 189 SELL trades out of 200 registered since late September/early October [1] - Buy trades only account for 3.5% of total insider trades (7 out of 200) [1] - This significant insider profit-taking trend has been ongoing since August [1]

#Bitcoin: I ask for forgiveness for being a sinful bear, for adding more shorts over the past two days and raising my average entry to $119,900Since August I tell 115-125k is SHORT area https://t.co/E4JyAUAXWp ...

Bearish Euphoria !This red will be green, matter of time https://t.co/lqw3wpQHf2 ...

Position Summary - The trader has completed building a short position in Bitcoin [1] - The position is 100% USDT, indicating a fully short position [1] Risk Management - The trader is preserving a healthy margin ratio and keeping liquidation levels comfortably away [1] - The trader will strictly avoid tightening the liquidation buffer by adding more to the position [1] Trading Strategy - The trader started building the position 40 days ago [1] - This is the last short entry the trader is taking [1]

To give you a visual explanation of what’s in my mind in an extreme bearish case, don’t be a low IQ and take this chart as a perfect template, because not everything can be seen in advance. But it illustrates how I believe things unfold into year end and early 2026. I expect bearish months ahead, with bounces and short-term opportunities in between. The overall market structure remains EXTREME bearish.For those asking why we placed recent altcoin buy orders, its to capture the bounce that is likely to happe ...

Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 99.9% of participants expressing positive views [1] - The lack of bearish sentiment suggests a potential market correction [1] Investment Strategy - The author anticipates that short positions will yield significant profits in the coming weeks and months [1] - The contrarian investment strategy is based on the belief that the crowd is often wrong [1]

#Bitcoin: First large short order triggered at $119,500. More large orders remain up till 121k and smaller - mid sized short orders till 125k region. This is the exact region I speak about since two months. 115-125k is my massive short entry region to accumulate more shorts ...

Position Duration - The position has been open for 40 days [1] Shorting Activity - Shorting activity has been observed since August, specifically between the price range of 115-125 [1] - More short orders are being placed within the 119,000-125,000 range [1] - The largest sized orders are concentrated between 119,000-121,000 [1]

#Bitcoin is back in the short area and all know what this means: I will continue to add more shorts in this region. Already accumulated a lot of shorts between 115-117k, I consider it as enough. Now I place orders between 119-125k if market is generous enough to make this gift https://t.co/Puo4QrqDFF ...