Core Insights - The report indicates a stable start for the economy in the first two months of 2024, with production demand showing steady growth and most indicators maintaining a positive trend [10][16][28] - The macroeconomic policies are effectively supporting economic recovery, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% [27][28][61] Economic Performance - In January-February, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 508.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [11][12] - The service sector showed strong growth, with the service production index increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, particularly in accommodation and catering, and information technology services [24][62] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 813.07 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, with online retail sales increasing by 15.3% [60][31] Investment Trends - High-tech industry investment grew by 9.4%, with significant increases in manufacturing technology transformation investment at 15.1% [63][44] - Infrastructure investment rose by 6.3%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 9.0%, indicating a narrowing of the decline [44][49] Trade and Exports - The total import and export value reached 66,138 billion yuan, with exports growing by 10.3% and imports by 6.7% [12][26] - The trade surplus stood at 8,909 billion yuan, with general trade imports and exports increasing by 10.0% [12][26] Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in February, reversing from a decline in January, with core CPI rising by 1.2% [32][26] - Food prices, particularly pork, saw significant declines, while other categories like education and healthcare experienced price increases [26][32] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.3% in February, reflecting seasonal variations due to the Spring Festival [19][74] - Employment conditions are generally stable, with a slight decrease in unemployment rates compared to the previous year [19][74] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales fell by 20.5% in terms of area and 29.3% in sales value, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [64][49] - The real estate development climate index was reported at 92.13, reflecting a contraction in construction activity [48][50]

六、就业形势总体稳定，城镇调查失业率平稳 标是有条件有支撑的 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 3 / 10 当然，我们同时也要看到，当前我国正处于经济恢复和转型升级的关键期，外 部不稳定、不确定因素还比较多，国内有效需求不足等问题仍然存在，所以经济回 升向好的基础还是需要加固，加上 1-2 月份主要指标在全年的占比相对比较小，后 期的经济走势我们还需要进一步观察，进一步做好各项政策落实落地。我们既要高 度重视发展面临的困难挑战，更要坚定信心、保持定力，按照党中央、国务院决策 部署，积极应对困难挑战，推动经济持续向好、行稳致远，把预期发展目标一步步 变成现实。（上海证券报） 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 4 / 10 三是居民消费价格同比由降转涨。2 月份，受春节假期食品和服务消费需求增 加，部分地区雨雪天气影响食品供应。另外，国际油价上行等因素影响，居民消费 价格环比上涨 1%，同比由上个月下降 0.8%转为上涨 0.7%。核心 CPI 明显回升。2 月份，扣除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅比上个月扩大 0.8 个百分点。 四是新动能新优势不断培育。高技术产业发展向好，1-2 月份，规模以上 ...

据国家统计局 3 月 18 日消息，1-2 月份，各地区各部门坚决贯彻落实党中央、 国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念， 加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、 防范化解风险，宏观组合政策效应持续释放，生产需求稳中有升，就业物价总体稳 定，发展质量不断改善，经济运行延续回升向好态势，起步平稳。 1-2 月份，货物进出口总额 66138 亿元，同比增长 8.7%。其中，出口 37523 亿 元，增长 10.3%；进口 28615 亿元，增长 6.7%。进出口相抵，贸易顺差 8909 亿元。 一般贸易进出口同比增长 10.0%，占进出口总额的比重为 65.7%，比上年同期提高 0.8 个百分点。民营企业进出口增长 17.7%，占进出口总额的比重为 54.6%，比上年 同期提高 4.2 个百分点。机电产品出口增长 11.8%，占出口总额的比重为 59.1%。 >> 国家铁路累计运输货物 7627.5 万吨，环比增长 0.42%； 1-2 月份，社会消费品零售总额 81307 亿元，同比增长 5.5%。按经营单位所在 地分，城镇消费品零售额 70 ...

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2024 年 03 月 04 日 流动性周报 证券研究报告-流动性周报 公开市场操作： 货币市场： 国债市场： 外汇市场： 分析师：徐伟 资格证书：S1330514080001 联系邮箱：xuw@hxzb.cn 联系电话：028-86199181 相关研究 一周市场回顾 （ 2024.02.26 — 2024.03.01） 2024.03.01 市 场 流 动 性 周 报 （2024.02.18-2024.02.23） 2024.02.26 一周市场回顾 （ 2024.02.19 — 2024.02.23） 2024.02.23 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 5 公开市场操作。2024 年 2 月 26 日-3 月 1 日，央行公开市场开展逆回购操作投 放 11640 亿元，逆回购到期 5320 亿元，总计实现净投放 6320 亿元。本周预计将有 11640 亿元逆回购到期。 资料来源：Wind、央行网站、宏信证券研究发展部 资料来源：Wind、宏信证券研究发展部 资料来源：Wind、宏信证券研究发展部 资料来源：Wind、宏信证券研究发展部 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...