感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 大家好欢迎参加中金公司全球硬科技巡礼一日本半导体设备的成长之路目前所以差不多都精髓已经状态现在开始报告声明声明报告完毕后主持人可直接发言谢谢本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利This meeting is a closed-door meeting of China International Capital Corporation Limited, CICCand only invited guests allowed to attend Without the written permission of CICC and the speaker, no organization or individual is allowed to punish, forward, reprint, disse ...

大家好如需提问电话端的参会者请先按话机上的信号键再按数字1网络端的参会者您可以在直播间互动区域内文字提问或点击旁边的举手按钮申请语音提问谢谢 大家好欢迎参加重庆公司 本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议 仅限受邀嘉宾参会 未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利This meeting is a closed-door meeting of China International Capital Corporation Limited, CICCand only invited guests allowed to attend Without the written permission of CICC and the speaker, no organization or individual is allowed to punish, forward, reprint, disseminate, copy, edit or modify the meeting cont ...

Industry and Company Overview This research report focuses on the macroeconomic environment and commodity markets, analyzing various sectors and their respective trends. Key themes include: * **Market sentiment shifting from premium to fundamentals**: After a period of elevated sentiment driven by geopolitical risks, markets are expected to return to a focus on fundamental factors. * **Commodity prices experiencing mixed trends**: While some commodities are facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * **Global economic outlook remains uncertain**: Factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets. Key Points Macro Review * **Inflation and monetary policy**: Inflation remains a concern, with both PPI and CPI showing slight increases in April. However, the slowdown in credit growth and monetary tightening suggest a potential easing of inflationary pressures. * **China's economic outlook**: The report highlights the challenges facing China's economy, including slowing growth, weak consumption, and high debt levels. The government's efforts to stimulate the economy through infrastructure spending and other measures are expected to have a limited impact. * **Global economic outlook**: The report notes that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and geopolitical tensions creating volatility in commodity markets. Commodity Markets * **Oil**: The report expects oil prices to remain supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand. However, the potential for oversupply and the impact of geopolitical tensions remain key risks. * **Natural gas**: The report highlights the potential for higher natural gas prices in Europe due to supply constraints and the need for seasonal inventory replenishment. In the US, the report expects natural gas prices to rise as demand increases during the summer months. * **Coal**: The report notes that coal prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise slightly as demand picks up during the summer months. * **Metals**: The report highlights the mixed trends in metal prices, with some metals facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, while others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * **Agricultural commodities**: The report notes that agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain volatile, with factors such as weather conditions and supply chain disruptions playing a significant role. Sector Analysis * **Energy**: The report expects energy prices to remain supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand. However, the potential for oversupply and the impact of geopolitical tensions remain key risks. * **Metals**: The report highlights the mixed trends in metal prices, with some metals facing downward pressure due to weak demand or oversupply, while others are benefiting from supply constraints or seasonal demand. * **Agricultural commodities**: The report notes that agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain volatile, with factors such as weather conditions and supply chain disruptions playing a significant role. * **Precious metals**: The report expects precious metal prices to remain supported by factors such as inflation and geopolitical tensions. Conclusion This research report provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic environment and commodity markets. The report highlights the potential risks and opportunities in various sectors and offers insights into the future direction of commodity prices.

本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议 仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发 转载 传播 复制 编辑 修改等如有上述违法行为 中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 这次会议是中国国际资产合作组织CICC的闭门会议只有邀请客人可以参加在CICC和评论员的签名和允许之外无许组织或人员可以删除、翻载、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、複制、� 大家晚上好欢迎大家来参加这个礼拜的周期半夜谈我是基础材料与工程的首席分析人陈彦非常高兴今天我们连同其他周期组的同事一块来给大家汇报一下我们对周期的最新的看法 应该说这一期的话可能最重要的事有两个一个的话就是业绩期终于过去了然后我们是各个团队是希望在年报和季报里面去寻找一些投资的线索这是第一个第二个的话我们也看到最近几个礼拜房地产的政策陆陆续续暖风平吹这里面的话 对我们做漆板块来说到底是个什么样的投资机会我们也都会给大家介绍我们最新的看法首先是在我们团队这边基础材料理工 ...

本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 这次会议是中国国际资产合作组织CICC的闭门会议只有邀请客人可以参加在没有CICC和评论员的签名允许的情况下无许组织或人员可以删除 转发 複制 删除 複制删除 删除 删除 删除 删除 删除 删除 删除 删除 各位同学大家好欢迎参加我们这一期的电视讲座我是重庆机械组的研究员周庆那么首先呢我汇报一下关于轨交近期的一个动态在前几天呢国铁集团进行了今年首次的动车组招标那么合计大概是165组的标准组那这个跟去年 全年164组的标准组的水平已经差不多了所以那么另一方面全年大概是两次动车组的招标在去年一般上下半年都会有所以今年按目前的趋势来看的话我觉得有机会可以达到200组动车组招标情况在过去几年动车组招标它的逻辑发生了比较大的变化 在疫情以前动车组的招标是根据线路的专车进程走的那到了疫情之后动车组的招标就跟着客流量走所以其中在2021年跟2022年因为客流量的大幅的萎缩所以动车组招标处在一个很 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 宏观经济研究 2024.05.12 中国宏观热点速评 淡化总量，协同财政 | 一季度货币政策 执行报告点评 周彭 分析员 黄文静 分析员 张文朗 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070001 SAC 执证编号：S0080520080004 SAC 执证编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BSI036 SFC CE Ref：BRG436 SFC CE Ref：BFE988 peng3.zhou@cicc.com.cn wenjing.huang@cicc.com.cn wenlang.zhang@cicc.com.cn 本次货币政策执行报告1指出要科学认识信贷和经济增长的关系趋于弱化，不应片面追求规模，“当前的货币存量已经 不少”，应更重提质效、优结构、政策协同、顺畅传导。监管空转或有助于收窄信用利差。在政策目标上，央行更加 重视通胀回升与汇率稳定。实际上，我们认为，财政政策发力可能更有利于通胀与汇率回升，而房地产市场、地方债 务等问题的缓解也有帮助。中国利率体系可能从广谱下行进入结构性调整期，融资成本下行与部分利率的阶段 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 证券研究报告 2024.05.11 简评 贷款和 M1 走弱，货币政策放松可期——4 月金 融数据点评 陈健恒 分析员 范阳阳 分析员 东旭 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080511030011 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070009 SAC 执证编号：S0080519040002 SFC CE Ref：BBM220 SFC CE Ref：BTQ434 SFC CE Ref：BOM884 chenjh@cicc.com.cn yangyang.fan@cicc.com.cn xu.dong@cicc.com.cn 事件 2024年5月11日，央行公布2024年4月金融数据。2024年前4个月新增人民币贷款10.19万亿元，月末人民币 贷款余额同比增长9.6%；前4个月社会融资增量累计为12.73万亿元，同比少增3.04万亿元；4月M2同比增长 7.2%，M1同比下降1.4%。 简评 4月金融数据整体表现不及预期，累计值倒推单月新增人民币贷款7300亿元，同比仅小幅多增112亿元，剔除表内 票据和非银贷款口径的人民币贷款4月减少3688亿元，同 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司全球研究——全球区域行业市场动态 杨鑫 陈健恒等 中金点睛 ： s h u i n u 9 8 7 0 加 V 据 数 报 研 和 要 纪 研 调 手 一 多 更 ： s h u i n u 9 8 7 0 加 V 中金研究 数 据 报 研 和 要 纪 研 全球研究月度手概调览每月汇总全球各区域经济市场变动、行业动态及重点关注 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 证券研究报告 2024.05.05 海外策略 如何把握不断轮动的资产“风口” 海外资产配置月报（2024-5） ： s h u i n u 9 8 7 0 加 V 数 据 报 研 刘刚，CFA 分析员 杨萱庭 联系人 要 和 纪 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SAC 执证编号：S0080122080405 调 研 SFC CE Ref：AVH867 xuanting.yang@cicc.com.cn 一 手 多 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn 更 4月以来全球资产轮动的“风口”再度为之一变，美债利率在：5s h月u Fi On u M9 C8 和7 0 低于预期的非农快速回落，前期强劲的铜和黄 加 V 金大幅回调，即便美债利率下行也未能提振黄金表现据。此外，今年以来轮番领涨的比特币（-15.5%）、日经225（-4.9%） 数 报 以及美股（-4.2%）等资产近期表现落后，反研而持续低迷的港股开始领跑全球市场，成为新的“风口”，后续是否又会重 和 演今年以来轮番轮动的情景？一方面纪资要产“风口”不断切换，另一方面“风口”的 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guohai Securities, a financial services company in the investment banking sector [1] Core Points and Arguments - The meeting is intended solely for clients who meet Guohai Securities' investor suitability management requirements and invited clients [1] - The views expressed by the conference guests are personal opinions and do not represent Guohai Securities' stance, nor do they constitute any investment advice [1] - Recording or forwarding the meeting is strictly prohibited, and violators will bear legal responsibilities [1] - Guohai Securities reserves all legal rights in this matter and disclaims any responsibility for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the information or content from this meeting [1] - The market carries risks, and investments should be approached with caution [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference emphasizes the importance of compliance with legal and regulatory standards in the financial services industry [1] - The disclaimer highlights the potential risks associated with investment decisions, underscoring the need for due diligence by investors [1]