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高盛:半导体mputex 2024 要点;重申对NVDAAMDA 的买入评级并维持
RMI· 2024-06-13 03:35
Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, and ARM, while issuing a "Sell" rating on Intel (INTC) [1][2][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights rising volume expectations across the supply chain, particularly ahead of Nvidia's Blackwell GPU shipments scheduled for late Q3 2024 [1]. - Nvidia and AMD are accelerating innovation in GPUs, leading to a competitive landscape characterized as "Nvidia vs. the Rest of the World" [1]. - The introduction of AI PCs is generating excitement within the industry, with Arm gaining early traction in AI PCs [1]. - Intel and AMD are promoting their new server CPU platforms, emphasizing performance and power efficiency advantages over existing processors [1]. Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia's 12-month price target is set at $135, reflecting an upside of 11.7% from the current price of $120.89 [4]. - The company is expected to maintain its competitive lead in accelerated computing, supported by a robust R&D scale and innovation cadence [4][8]. - Nvidia's revenue estimates for CY2025/26 are projected at $173.5 billion and $203.4 billion, respectively, with non-GAAP EPS estimates of $4.16 and $5.10, which are 18% and 23% above consensus [10][11]. AMD - AMD's 12-month price target is set at $175, indicating a 4.2% upside from the current price of $167.87 [20]. - The company is expected to benefit from an accelerated product cadence in the Data Center GPU segment, with new products like MI325 and MI350 launching in the near future [21][22]. - AMD's server CPU market share is projected to increase from 22% in Q1 2024 to 28.4% by 2026 [23]. ARM - ARM's 12-month price target is set at $143, with a current price of $136.57, indicating a 4.7% upside [38]. - The company is leveraging its architectural advantages in power efficiency to expand its customer base in the cloud, including partnerships with major players like AWS and Google [39]. - Recent product announcements, such as the Arm Cortex-X925 CPU and Immortalis-G925 GPU, showcase significant performance improvements, particularly in AI applications [39].
Virtual Power Plant Flipbook
RMI· 2024-06-13 00:17
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are increasingly being developed by utilities to enhance grid reliability and resilience, particularly in response to load growth and extreme weather challenges. VPPs aggregate distributed energy resources (DERs) such as batteries, electric vehicles, and smart thermostats to provide critical grid services [6][11][21]. - The potential impact of scaling VPPs is significant, with estimates suggesting that tripling VPP capacity by 2030 could address 10%-20% of peak load and save approximately $10 billion annually [21][22]. - VPPs are seen as a flexible solution to navigate the transformation of the grid driven by the retirement of fossil plants and the integration of renewable energy sources [20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the growing trend of utilities developing VPPs to maintain grid reliability and support the integration of renewable energy [6][11]. VPPs and Their Benefits - VPPs provide various benefits, including capacity, energy, ancillary services, and resilience, while alleviating stress on transmission and distribution systems [11][24]. Potential Impact of VPPs at Scale - VPPs could scale to 80-160 GW by 2030, playing a crucial role in addressing national resource adequacy and reliability needs, while also saving on grid costs [21][22]. Utility's Role in a VPP - Utilities can serve multiple roles within a VPP, including resource offtaker, program operator, and customer enrollment facilitator [27][28]. Customer Engagement in VPPs - Customers can engage in VPPs through various ownership and incentive structures, with options for device control and participation requirements [31][32]. Effective Program Design - Successful VPP implementation involves open access to integrate multiple technologies, developing partnerships, and streamlining customer experiences [13][14]. Takeaways for Future VPPs - The report emphasizes the importance of iterative program design and reimagined utility practices to enhance VPP effectiveness [12][14]. Utility VPP Features - The report includes profiles of VPPs from over 15 utilities, showcasing a variety of program archetypes and technologies [35][38]. Appendix - The appendix provides a VPP comparison matrix summarizing key metrics across programs and available tax credits to support customer DER adoption [4][40].
Plugging into Mobility Needs at Lower-Income Multifamily Housing
RMI· 2024-05-30 00:17
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for equitable electric vehicle (EV) charging solutions in lower-income multifamily housing to address transportation inequities and enhance access to e-mobility options [10][12][16]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act have increased funding for EV charging infrastructure, yet access remains concentrated in higher-income areas, leaving lower-income multifamily residents with significant gaps [10][11]. Project Background - The Multifamily Charging Accelerator Project aims to identify transportation needs and tailor charging solutions for lower-income multifamily housing, addressing disparities in charging access [16][19]. Charging Access Gaps - Approximately 80% of EV charging occurs at home, primarily in single-family homes, while over 40% of residents in major cities live in multifamily housing with limited charging options [17][18]. Key Considerations for Developing Equitable Charging Access - Community-driven solutions, cost burden considerations, electrical capacity, environmental justice, local transportation needs, and safety are critical factors in developing equitable charging access [20][21][22][23][24]. City Partnerships - The project collaborates with Atlanta, Phoenix, and Portland to implement charging solutions, focusing on underserved communities and leveraging local incentives [27][28][29]. Recommendations for Scaling Solutions - Recommendations include prioritizing community needs, fostering affordability, planning complementary mobility solutions, forming local partnerships, ensuring affordable charging, and developing an incremental change approach [12][13][14][15]. Outreach to Residents - Engagement with residents through surveys and community events is essential to understand their transportation needs and preferences for charging solutions [56][57]. Identifying Resident Needs - The report highlights the importance of understanding residents' transportation patterns and challenges to inform the development of effective charging solutions [58][59][61].
Assessing the Impact of Voluntary Actions on the Grid
RMI· 2024-05-23 00:17
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The voluntary procurement of clean energy by corporations has significantly driven renewable energy development, with over 70 gigawatts of renewable energy contracts signed in the U.S. since 2014 [7] - The urgency of the climate crisis is leading large energy consumers to assess the impact of their actions on grid decarbonization and reliability, utilizing consequential emissions impact analysis [7][8] - The ZEROgrid initiative aims to clarify the consensus on consequential emissions impact analysis and its implications for corporate actors [8] Summary by Sections Areas of Consensus - The true impact of any voluntary corporate action is defined as the difference in total emissions between a scenario where the action is taken and one where it is not [9] - The impact comprises several contributing effects, including short-run operations of power plants and long-term structural changes [9][12] - There is a lack of a universally accepted method to empirically verify estimates of structural change, leading to significant uncertainty in total impact measurements [10] Components of Impact - Emissions impact can occur through changes in power supply or demand, costs of power plants, and the rate of renewable energy project interconnections [12] - The total emissions from power plants are calculated based on capacity, utilization, and emissions factors, with companies able to influence these variables to reduce emissions [13] - The distinction between short-run and long-run impacts is crucial, as utilization changes quickly while capacity adjustments take longer [15] Additionality - Additionality refers to the additive nature of an intervention's emissions reductions, which can be influenced by direct impacts on grid emissions and overall structural changes [20] - An action may be considered non-additional if it does not impact capacity, utilization, or emissions factors, or if it induces equal and opposite changes [20] Estimates Versus True Values - The practice of consequential emissions impact analysis faces challenges in validating estimates due to the inability to observe both scenarios (with and without the action) simultaneously [21] - Various models exist to estimate impacts, including capacity expansion models and regression models, each with different levels of uncertainty [22][24] Conclusions and Future Research - The report emphasizes the need for continued exploration of how to compare model outputs and improve understanding of consequential impact assessments [25] - Future research will focus on identifying consistently high-impact actions and bounding uncertainties in estimates to inform policymakers [25]