力量发展（01277.HK） 优于大市 成长可期的高股息优质民营煤企 随着经营向好，分红频次增加、分红率提高。公司上市后经营稳健向好， 资产负债率由 2013 年的 68%最低降至 2021 年的 24%，2017 年起公司实 现常态化分红（年均≥2 次派息）。2024 年公司派发"中期分红 1 次， 期末分红 1 次，特别分红 2 次"，合计分红率为 56.6%。2025 年公司已 宣派"特别分红 1 次，中期分红 1 次"，合计宣派股息 0.085 港元/股， 对应 2 月 6 日收盘价的股息率已有 4.8%。 盈利预测与估值：预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 13.1/17.0/20.2 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 10.6/8.2/6.9。我们认为公司合理估值区间在人民币 1.8-2.0元之间，折合港币2.03-2.26港元，相对于2月6日收盘价有15%-28% 的溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：经济放缓、新能源快速发展等致煤炭需求下降、安全生产事故影 响、煤炭销售不及预期、分红率不及预期、非煤业务影响业绩、关联交易影 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证 ...

力量发展（01277.HK） 优于大市 成长可期的高股息优质民营煤企 核心观点 公司研究·深度报告 煤炭·煤炭开采 优质民营煤企，开启区域与品类扩张新阶段。公司是优质的民营综合型煤炭 企业，2012 年 3 月在香港上市，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，实控人张量持有公 司 62.96%的股份，张力夫妇（张量父母）持有公司 11.33%的股份。公司以 煤炭产业为主，正致力于从单一的动力煤生产商向全煤种生产转型， 2024 年煤炭业务营收和毛利占比分别约 95%、102%。 主力矿井盈利能力较强。大饭铺煤矿自 2012 年投产以来就是公司唯一的主 力矿井，产能 650 万吨/年，截至 2024 年末资源量约 3.6 亿吨，储量约 1.6 亿吨。矿井煤质优良，产品属低硫、高灰熔点的环保煤炭，售价较高； 且属安全高效矿井，同时智能化程度高，开采成本较低；盈利能力位于可 比公司前列，是支撑公司营收与现金流稳步增长的主要力量。 煤炭业务实现品类&区域拓展，成长可期。公司还拥有两座在建炼焦煤矿 ——永安煤矿、韦一煤矿。永安煤矿年产 120 万吨，截至 2024 年末资 源量约 2.2 亿吨，储量约 0.3 亿吨；已 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

Group 1: Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks are experiencing significant declines, with China Life (02628) down 3.75%, New China Life (01336) down 3.28%, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) down 2.74%. The government plans to issue approximately 200 billion yuan in special bonds to inject capital into major insurance companies, marking the first time this method will be used for insurance firms in China [1] Group 2: Logistics and Delivery - ZTO Express (02057) has seen an increase of over 2.3%. The company estimates that its total revenue for 2025 will be between 48.5 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% compared to 44.2807 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 3: Biotechnology - Innovent Biologics (09969) has risen over 4%, with a current increase of 3.25%. The company anticipates achieving revenue of 2.37 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of approximately 134%, and expects to turn a profit with a net profit of around 630 million yuan [1] Group 4: Coal Sector - Coal stocks are generally declining, with Yancoal Australia (03668) down 6.63%, Shougang Resources (00639) down 7.83%, and China Shenhua (01088) down 2.47%. This decline follows reports that the Indonesian government has proposed a production cut plan, leading to a 40% to 70% reduction in production quotas for major miners [2] Group 5: Medical Devices - GigaGen (02367) has increased over 8%, currently up 4.11%. The company recently announced that its "recombinant type I α1 collagen and sodium hyaluronate composite solution" has been approved as a medical device, marking a significant milestone as the first product of its kind for improving facial smoothness [2] Group 6: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks are all declining, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) down 5.91% and SMIC (00981) down 3.49%. This follows a significant drop in AMD's stock price by 17.31% after its fourth-quarter report indicated that while revenue exceeded expectations, the guidance for the first quarter was below market expectations [3] Group 7: Restaurant Sector - Restaurant stocks are performing well, with Yum China (09987) up 8.41% and Haidilao (06862) up 2.69%. The restaurant industry has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales in the sector growing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2025, significantly outpacing overall retail growth [3] Group 8: Consumer Goods - Miniso (09896) has risen over 5.1% after announcing its partnership with the Central Radio and Television Station for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala. This collaboration is seen as a significant marketing move to elevate the brand's visibility in the mainstream market [4] Group 9: Gold Sector - Gold stocks are declining, with China Gold International (02099) down 6.8% and Zijin Mining (02899) down 6.29%. Recent volatility in the international gold market has been noted, with expectations that geopolitical tensions and liquidity easing by the Federal Reserve may drive gold prices higher [4] Group 10: Cryptocurrency - Cryptocurrency ETFs and related stocks are continuing to decline, with significant drops in prices, including Bitcoin falling below $72,000 for the first time in 15 months. The price has decreased by over 42% from its peak last October [5] Group 11: US Market Highlights - Boston Scientific (BSX.US) fell 17.59% after providing lower-than-expected guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $3.43 and $3.49, slightly below analyst expectations [6] - Solar stocks surged, with Enphase Energy (ENPH.US) rising 38.6% following reports of interest from Elon Musk's teams in the Chinese solar supply chain [6]

每经AI快讯，港股煤炭股普遍回落，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668.HK)跌7.2%，报32.46港元；首钢 资源(00639.HK)跌6.96%，报3.21港元；力量发展(01277.HK)跌6.35%，报1.77港元；中国神华 (01088.HK)跌1.68%，报42.18港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

根据华泰证券测算，当期印尼煤炭现货出口收缩对中国月度平均动力煤消费量和平均进口量的影响分别 是0.5%和4.2%，由于2026年2月恰好是农历新年、工厂陆续放假、煤炭消费量在自然回落的过程中，情 绪面的冲击可能大于基本面冲击。 消息面上，昨日有消息称，印尼能源与矿产资源部官员对外表示，由于印尼政府提出减产计划，该国矿 商已暂停现货煤炭出口，印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额较2025年下降40%至70%。据智通财经， 长期跟踪国际煤炭贸易的煤炭江湖负责人赵阳表示，部分媒体所谓"暂停出口"实为市场误读，印尼并非 全面禁止出口，而是部分大型煤矿因2026年度生产计划(RKAB)配额尚未确定，暂时无法对外报价和执 行现货交易。 煤炭股普遍回落，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌7.2%，报32.46港元；首钢资源(00639)跌6.96%， 报3.21港元；力量发展(01277)跌6.35%，报1.77港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)跌1.68%，报42.18港 元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股普遍回落，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌7.2%，报32.46港元；首钢资 源(00639)跌6.96%，报3.21港元；力量发展(01277)跌6.35%，报1.77港元；中国神华(01088)跌1.68%，报 42.18港元。 根据华泰证券测算，当期印尼煤炭现货出口收缩对中国月度平均动力煤消费量和平均进口量的影响分别 是0.5%和4.2%，由于2026年2月恰好是农历新年、工厂陆续放假、煤炭消费量在自然回落的过程中，情 绪面的冲击可能大于基本面冲击。 消息面上，昨日有消息称，印尼能源与矿产资源部官员对外表示，由于印尼政府提出减产计划，该国矿 商已暂停现货煤炭出口，印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额较2025年下降40%至70%。据智通财经， 长期跟踪国际煤炭贸易的煤炭江湖负责人赵阳表示，部分媒体所谓"暂停出口"实为市场误读，印尼并非 全面禁止出口，而是部分大型煤矿因2026年度生产计划(RKAB)配额尚未确定，暂时无法对外报价和执 行现货交易。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，截止2月4日收盘，有100只股票创52周新高，其中METROPOLIS CAP(08621)、亚势 备份(08290)、温岭工量刃具(01379)创高率位于前3位，分别为74.55%、63.89%、57.48%。 52周新高排行 | 股票名称 | 收盘价 | 最高价 | 创高率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | METROPOLIS | 0.048 | 0.096 | 74.55% | | CAP(08621) | | | | | 亚势备份(08290) | 0.032 | 0.059 | 63.89% | | 温岭工量刃具(01379) | 3.400 | 6.000 | 57.48% | | 亚洲联网科技(00679) | 1.500 | 1.550 | 46.23% | | 亚太金融投资(08193) | 0.500 | 0.690 | 25.45% | | 浦江中国(01417) | 0.325 | 0.335 | 24.07% | | 新威工程集团(08616) | 0.068 | 0.078 | 23.81% | | 信达国际控股(00111) | 1 ...

国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，今年煤炭市场重点关注的地方在于海外，而非国内。一旦海外市场出 现黑天鹅事件，煤价想象空间才有望彻底打开。上述黑天鹅事件或更多源于美国需求增加与印尼产量/ 出口下滑的共振。该行认为，直接在海外销售的煤企将更为受益。重点关注在海外布局的煤炭公司：中 国秦发(布局印尼)、力量发展(布局南非)、兖煤澳大利亚(布局澳大利亚)。 消息面上，据报道，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤 炭出口。印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的 一部分。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 部分煤炭股尾盘涨幅进一步扩大，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨11.05%，报34.98港元；力量发展 (01277)涨8%，报1.89港元；中国秦发(00866)涨2.87%，报4.3港元。 ...

国盛证券发布研报称，今年煤炭市场重点关注的地方在于海外，而非国内。一旦海外市场出现黑天鹅事 件，煤价想象空间才有望彻底打开。上述黑天鹅事件或更多源于美国需求增加与印尼产量/出口下滑的 共振。该行认为，直接在海外销售的煤企将更为受益。重点关注在海外布局的煤炭公司：中国秦发(布 局印尼）、力量发展(布局南非）、兖煤澳大利亚(布局澳大利亚)。 消息面上，据报道，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤 炭出口。印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的 一部分。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 智通财经APP获悉，部分煤炭股尾盘涨幅进一步扩大，截至发稿，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨11.05%，报 34.98港元；力量发展(01277)涨8%，报1.89港元；中国秦发(00866)涨2.87%，报4.3港元。 ...