Financial Performance - Full year 2024 Net Income was $698 million, an increase of $880 million compared to 2023, driven by higher contributions from renewables projects and lower impairments[8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $2,639 million, a decrease of $189 million from 2023, primarily due to drought conditions and outages in Colombia[9]. - Adjusted EPS for 2024 was $2.14, an increase of $0.38 compared to 2023, mainly driven by higher contributions from renewables projects[11]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $12,278 million, a decrease of 3.1% from $12,668 million in 2023[27]. - Net income attributable to The AES Corporation for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $1,679 million, compared to $249 million in 2023, representing a significant increase[27]. - Basic earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $2.38, up from $0.37 in 2023[27]. - For the three months ended December 31, 2024, total revenue was $2,962 million, slightly down from $2,968 million in the same period of 2023[29]. - Operating margin for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $2,314 million, a decrease from $2,504 million in 2023[27]. - Interest expense increased to $1,485 million in 2024 from $1,319 million in 2023[27]. - The company reported a gain on disposal and sale of business interests of $444 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $134 million in 2023[27]. - The total cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 was $9,964 million, down from $10,164 million in 2023[27]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $698 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $182 million in 2023[35]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 were $2,039 million, up from $1,990 million in 2023, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.5%[35]. - Total current liabilities decreased to $8,571 million in 2024 from $9,731 million in 2023, representing a reduction of approximately 11.9%[33]. - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $2,752 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $3,034 million in 2023[35]. - Capital expenditures for the year were $7,392 million, a slight decrease from $7,724 million in 2023[35]. - The company reported a diluted EPS of $0.79 for Q4 2024, recovering from a loss of $0.14 in Q4 2023, with a twelve-month EPS of $2.37 compared to $0.34[45]. Strategic Initiatives - The company signed or awarded 6.8 GW of new contracts in 2024, including 4.4 GW of renewables under long-term PPAs[5]. - The PPA backlog consists of 11.9 GW, with 4.9 GW under construction, indicating strong future growth potential[13]. - The company is initiating 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million, with expected growth from new renewables projects[15]. - The company expects to complete construction of 3.2 GW of new renewables in 2025, contributing to future revenue growth[5]. - The company reaffirmed its annualized growth target of 5% to 7% for Adjusted EBITDA through 2027, based on 2023 guidance[15]. - The company plans to continue its market expansion efforts, particularly in renewable energy sectors, to align with global sustainability trends[36]. Debt and Liquidity Management - The company issued $1,450 million in recourse debt during 2024, compared to $1,400 million in 2023, reflecting a strategic move to enhance liquidity[35]. - Future guidance indicates a focus on reducing non-recourse debt, which stood at $20,626 million in 2024, down from $18,482 million in 2023[33]. - Parent Company liquidity at the end of December 2024 was $2.047 billion, comprising $265 million in cash and $1.782 billion available under credit facilities[50]. - The Parent Company relies on subsidiary distributions to fund debt service and other cash needs, highlighting the importance of these distributions for operational liquidity[50]. Impairments and Losses - Impairment losses for Q4 2024 were $195 million, a decrease from $559 million in Q4 2023, while the twelve-month impairment losses were $374 million compared to $877 million[45]. - The total asset impairments across various projects, including $198 million at Warrior Run and $139 million at New York Wind, significantly impacted the overall financial performance[48]. - Income tax benefits associated with impairments and losses amounted to $68 million related to AES Ventanas, $46 million for Warrior Run, and $13 million for AES Andes, impacting earnings per share positively[48]. - Losses incurred due to early retirement of debt at AES Andes totaled $46 million, or $0.07 per share, indicating financial strain from debt management[48]. - The company experienced day-one losses of $20 million, or $0.03 per share, at AES Renewable Holdings due to sales-type leases, indicating challenges in new project implementations[48]. Subsidiary Distributions - Total subsidiary distributions to the Parent Company for the last four quarters reached $1.633 billion, with $1.603 billion from subsidiary distributions and $30 million from returns of capital[50]. - The company reported a total of $1.504 billion in subsidiary distributions for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, reflecting a decrease from previous quarters[50].

Core Insights - The AES Corporation anticipates 2025 to be a pivotal year with significant growth in renewables Adjusted EBITDA driven by completed projects and a substantial backlog of signed Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) [2][12] - The company reaffirms its long-term growth rate targets, indicating a de-risked growth strategy primarily from signed projects and rate base growth at US utilities [2][3] 2024 Financial Highlights - Full year 2024 Net Income reached $698 million, an increase of $880 million compared to 2023, attributed to higher contributions from renewables, lower impairments, and favorable foreign currency gains [3][6] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $2,639 million, a decrease of $189 million from 2023, mainly due to drought conditions and outages in Colombia [4] - Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes for 2024 was $3,952 million, an increase of $513 million compared to 2023, driven by more renewables projects placed in service [5] Strategic Accomplishments - The company signed or awarded 6.8 GW of new contracts, including 4.4 GW of renewables under long-term PPAs and 2.1 GW of data center load growth at AES Ohio [10][11] - AES was ranked the 1 provider of clean energy globally to corporations for the third consecutive year by BloombergNEF [10] - The company completed the construction or acquisition of 3.0 GW of renewables and a 670 MW combined cycle gas plant in Panama [10] Financial Position and Outlook - The company is initiating 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $2,650 to $2,850 million, with growth expected from new renewables projects and rate base growth at US utilities [12][14] - The expectation for 2025 Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes is set at $3,950 to $4,350 million [13] - The company reaffirms an annualized growth target of 5% to 7% through 2027, based on 2023 guidance [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in The AES Corporation (AES) should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Mar 21, 2025 $4.00 Put option [1] Company Analysis - AES Corp. currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Utility - Electric Power industry, which is positioned in the Bottom 48% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, there has been a mixed sentiment among analysts regarding earnings estimates; one analyst has increased the estimate for the current quarter, while two have decreased theirs, resulting in a consensus estimate drop from earnings of 51 cents per share to 34 cents [3] Options Market Insights - The high implied volatility surrounding AES Corp. suggests that options traders are anticipating a significant price movement, which could indicate an upcoming event that may lead to a substantial rally or sell-off [2][4] - Seasoned options traders often seek out options with high implied volatility to sell premium, aiming to benefit from the decay of the option's value if the underlying stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Group 1 - Miller/Howard is an independent investment boutique that focuses on managing dividend-oriented investment strategies [1] - ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles have been integral to the company's investment process since the launch of its first strategy in 1991 [1]

Group 1: Ford Motor Company - The automobile industry is facing significant changes, with declining car ownership and longer-lasting vehicles impacting traditional manufacturers like Ford [2][4] - Ford's U.S. market share in the electric vehicle sector is only 8.7%, trailing behind competitors such as Tesla, General Motors, Hyundai, and Kia [3] - Ford's stock has underperformed, down 64% from its early 2022 peak, and is currently priced at levels not seen since 1995, indicating a lack of growth prospects [4] - Despite stagnant growth, Ford offers a forward-looking dividend yield of 6.5% based on a quarterly payment of $0.15 per share, which is attractive compared to similarly risky investments [5] - The stock's forward-looking price/earnings ratio is low at 5.5, suggesting potential value despite the company's limited growth [6] Group 2: Merck - Merck's stock has declined 36% since its peak last March, primarily due to disappointing quarterly results and increased competition for its diabetes treatments and HPV vaccine [7][8] - Sales for diabetes treatments Januvia and Janumet fell 33% last year, but they represent less than 4% of Merck's total revenue, while Gardasil accounts for over 13% and has shown flat sales in 2024 [9] - Keytruda, Merck's flagship cancer drug, saw an 18% increase in sales to $29.5 billion, making up 46% of total revenue, with potential for further growth as it enters additional clinical trials [10] - Merck has a history of developing new blockbusters and has secured rights to promising immunotherapy projects, indicating potential for future growth [11][12] - The company has raised its dividend payments for 14 consecutive years, with a forward-looking dividend yield of just under 3.9% [13] Group 3: AES Corporation - AES Corporation's stock is down 64% from its late-2022 peak, leading to a forward-looking dividend yield of 6.7% [14] - The company operates in a transitioning industry, moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, which requires significant investment and has led to increased debt [15] - Despite challenges, the renewable energy sector is projected to grow at over 17% annually through 2034, and AES expects its revenue growth to continue at least until 2027 [16] - AES has a backlog of 12.7 gigawatts in long-term contracts, supporting a positive outlook for profit growth [17] - Analysts largely view AES as a strong buy, with a consensus price target of $16.40, indicating significant upside potential from current levels [18]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in AES's earnings despite an increase in revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - AES is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 53.4% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $3.26 billion, indicating a 9.8% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.44% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for AES is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -2.94% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [8]. - AES currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AES exceeded earnings expectations by delivering $0.71 per share against an expected $0.60, resulting in a surprise of +18.33% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, AES has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Conclusion - While AES may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other influencing factors before making investment decisions [16].

Core Insights - AES Corporation has been ranked as the top seller of clean energy to corporations globally for the third consecutive year in 2024 according to BloombergNEF's Corporate Energy Market Outlook [1][2] - The demand for clean energy from the corporate sector is strong and growing, particularly from AI data centers and advanced manufacturing [3] Company Performance - AES signed a record amount of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024, with a total of 62 GW, representing a 36% year-over-year increase from 46 GW [3] - The company maintains significant partnerships with leading corporations, including Amazon, which was the top corporate buyer in 2024 [2][3] Industry Trends - The clean energy market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing corporate demand for renewable energy solutions [3] - Renewables and energy storage are highlighted as having the fastest time to market, essential for supporting America's economic growth [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a dividend-focused value investment strategy that prioritizes capital preservation and steady income growth [1] - The author discusses a diversified dividend stock portfolio that includes high-quality value stocks, aiming for meaningful growth and long-term safety [1] Group 2 - The author holds long positions in several utility companies, including WEC, DUK, SO, and AES, indicating a beneficial interest in these stocks [2] - The article is presented as a personal opinion and does not constitute investment or tax advice, highlighting the author's status as a private investor [3]

Core Viewpoint - The AES Corporation will host a conference call on February 28, 2025, to discuss its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Call Details - The conference call will include prepared remarks and a question and answer session, accessible to the media and public in listen-only mode [2]. - Interested parties can join the call by dialing 1-833-470-1428 or +1-404-975-4839 for international callers, with a Participant Access Code of 548147 [2]. - The call will be available via webcast on the AES website, with a replay accessible shortly after the call [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - The AES Corporation is a Fortune 500 global energy company focused on delivering greener and smarter energy solutions [3]. - The company emphasizes continuous innovation and operational excellence while partnering with customers for strategic energy transitions [3].

Company Overview - AES Corporation is positively viewed for its aggressive transition to renewable energy, which aligns with secular growth opportunities in the Utilities sector [1] Industry Perspective - The Utilities sector continues to present growth opportunities, particularly in renewable energy, which remains a core theme for AES Corporation [1] Analyst's Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in AES Corporation through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives, reflecting a positive outlook on the company [2]