Core Insights - Agilon Health (AGL) reported break-even quarterly earnings per share, surprising the market as the Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipated a loss of $0.01, marking a 100% earnings surprise [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.53 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.73%, although this represents a decline from year-ago revenues of $1.6 billion [2] - Agilon shares have increased by approximately 116.8% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a -3.9% decline in the S&P 500 [3] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of Agilon's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [4] - Current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.05 on revenues of $1.47 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.31 on revenues of $5.92 billion [7] Industry Context - The Medical Services industry, to which Agilon belongs, is currently ranked in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - The correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions suggests that tracking these revisions can provide insights into stock performance [5][6]

First Quarter 2025 Earnings Results 5.6.2025 Copyright © 2025 agilon health. Confidential internal document containing proprietary information. Do not distribute. Disclaimers and Forward-Looking Statements FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND OTHER INFORMATION Statements in this presentation that are not historical factual statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forw ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, total revenue was $1.53 billion, down from $1.6 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to market and partnership exits, partially offset by premium growth [21] - Membership at the end of Q1 2025 was 491,000, a decrease from 523,000 in Q1 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to growth and partner exits [19] - Medical margin for Q1 2025 was $128 million, down from $157 million in Q1 2024, driven by elevated utilization and costs [21][22] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $21 million, compared to $29 million in Q1 2024, reflecting ongoing elevated cost trends [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ACO REACH membership decreased to 114,000 in Q1 2025 from 131,000 in Q1 2024, primarily due to exiting an underperforming partnership [20] - Medical costs for Q1 2025 were in line with expectations, driven by elevated utilization and flu-related costs [22] - The medical cost trend for year two plus markets was 5.5% in Q1 2025, down from 6.7% in Q1 2024 [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Medicare Advantage market continues to expand, with CMS data showing a year-over-year growth trend of 3.9% [10] - Overall market trends in 2025 remain consistent with the prior year, with an expected full-year trend of 5.3% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined growth, reducing exposure to costs outside of its control, and enhancing clinical and operational capabilities [6][12] - Investments in technology and clinical programs are expected to drive competitive advantages and improve quality outcomes [13][14] - The company anticipates a more favorable environment in 2026, supported by improved payer bids and final rate notices from CMS [11][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the final rate notice from CMS for 2026, which is expected to address high cost and utilization trends [6][18] - The company is taking a cautious approach to membership growth, with expectations for retroactive membership assignments in Q2 [5][19] - Management highlighted the importance of early identification and management of chronic diseases as a key focus of their model [7][10] Other Important Information - The company ended Q1 2025 with $369 million in cash and marketable securities, expecting to use approximately $110 million of cash in 2025 [27] - The company is maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation to support business objectives while aiming for cash flow breakeven in 2027 [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of V-28 risk model transition on value-based care companies - Management indicated that the risk adjustment perspective for 2025 is in line with expectations, with a 2% net increase year over year, despite a 3% headwind from V-28 [33][34] Question: Contribution from previously exited areas - Management noted that unfavorable development from exited markets would not impact 2025 significantly, with minimal remaining IBNR [37][38] Question: 2026 MA final rate notice and its flow-through - Management confirmed that 40% of membership was repriced for January 2025, with expected benefits from the average 9% increase across the network [41][42] Question: Risk scores and patient movement - Management clarified that the 2% increase in risk adjustment is on a same member basis, with some movement between payers noted but not significantly affecting care models [49][52] Question: Expectations for 2026 MA bit cycle - Management expressed optimism about the 2026 environment, with a focus on quality incentives and clinical cost-saving initiatives tracking well [58][61] Question: Medical cost trends and visibility on completed claims - Management stated that medical cost trends were in line with expectations, with improved visibility from the new financial data pipeline [65][66] Question: Potential membership reduction due to Part D - Management indicated that they are making progress in reducing Part D exposure and do not anticipate a reduction in membership for 2026 [75][76] Question: Clinical programs and their impact - Management confirmed that while 2025 is an investment year for new clinical programs, benefits are expected to materialize in 2026 and beyond [104][106]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $1.5 billion, a decrease of 4% from $1.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024[90]. - Gross profit fell to $51 million in the first quarter of 2025, down 32% from $75 million in the first quarter of 2024[90]. - Medical margin decreased by 19% to $128 million compared to $157 million in the first quarter of 2024[90]. - Net income for the first quarter of 2025 was $12 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $6 million in the first quarter of 2024, representing a 301% increase[90]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 was $21 million, down 29% from $29 million in the first quarter of 2024[90]. - Medical services revenue for Q1 2025 was $1,529,879, a decrease of $71,316 or 4% from $1,601,195 in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 6% decline in average membership[115]. - Medical services expense decreased to $1,401,867 in Q1 2025, down $41,975 or 3% from $1,443,842 in Q1 2024, reflecting the same decline in average membership[118]. - Other medical expenses decreased by $5,231 or 6% to $80,193 in Q1 2025 compared to $85,424 in Q1 2024, with partner physician incentive expense dropping to $44.0 million from $49.8 million[119]. - General and administrative expenses fell by $10,466 or 14% to $65,956 in Q1 2025 from $76,422 in Q1 2024, with costs related to geography entry decreasing significantly[120]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $20.6 million, compared to $29.1 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 29%[132]. - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $50.7 million, down from $75.1 million in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 32.5%[130]. - Medical margin for Q1 2025 was $128.0 million, compared to $157.4 million in Q1 2024, indicating a decrease of 18.6%[130]. Membership and Services - Medicare Advantage members decreased by 6% to approximately 490,700 as of March 31, 2025, compared to 522,800 in the same period of 2024[90]. - Medical services expense as a percentage of total revenues increased to 91% in Q1 2025 from 90% in Q1 2024[116]. - General and administrative expenses represented 4% of total revenues in Q1 2025, down from 5% in Q1 2024[116]. Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash used in operating activities was $32.0 million for Q1 2025, an improvement from $47.8 million in Q1 2024, showing a reduction of $15.8 million[143]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, totaled $138.6 million, with investments in marketable securities amounting to $230.1 million[134]. - The company expects to continue incurring operating losses and generating negative cash flows due to ongoing investments in business expansion[135]. - Net cash used in investing activities was $23.1 million for Q1 2025, compared to net cash provided of $51.4 million in Q1 2024, a change of $74.5 million[144]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company held cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $368.8 million, compared to $405.6 million as of December 31, 2024[155]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to empower primary care physicians through a risk-bearing entity model to manage total healthcare needs[84]. - The company is focused on expanding its network of physician partners and enhancing its platform capabilities to drive growth[85]. - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining and securing contracts with Medicare Advantage payors on favorable terms[81]. - The company expects medical margin to increase in absolute dollars as the platform matures, despite potential fluctuations in PMPM due to new member additions[125]. Other Financial Metrics - Income from equity method investments increased by $6,988 or 123% to $12,672 in Q1 2025, driven by higher medical margins from CMS ACO Models investments[121]. - Other income (expense), net rose by $3,369 or 57% to $9,261 in Q1 2025, primarily due to $4.2 million of income related to services rendered to CMS ACO Models[122]. - Total discontinued operations reported a gain of $14,000 in Q1 2025, a significant improvement of $23,281 or 251% compared to a loss of $9,281 in Q1 2024[123]. - The Credit Facility includes a $100.0 million senior secured term loan and a $100.0 million senior secured revolving credit facility, maturing on February 18, 2026[146]. - A hypothetical 100 basis point change in interest rates would not have a material impact on the company's interest expense[154]. - A hypothetical 100 basis point change in interest rates would not have a material impact on the fair value of the company's marketable securities[155].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $1.53 billion, a decrease of 4% compared to $1.60 billion in Q1 2024[5] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $51 million, a 32% decrease from $75 million in Q1 2024[6] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $12 million, compared to a net loss of $6 million in Q1 2024[6] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $21 million, a decrease of 29% from $29 million in Q1 2024[6] - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $1,532,782, a decrease of 4.5% from $1,604,354 in Q1 2024[20] - Medical services revenue was $1,529,879, down from $1,601,195, reflecting a decline of 4.4% year-over-year[20] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $50,722, a decrease of 32.5% compared to $75,088 in Q1 2024[24] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $12,112, compared to a net loss of $6,034 in Q1 2024[20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $20,567, down from $29,054 in Q1 2024, representing a decline of 29.2%[30] Membership and Membership Trends - Medicare Advantage membership stood at 491,000, down 6% from 523,000 in the previous year[6] - Total members on the agilon platform decreased to 605,000, reflecting a 7% decline year-over-year[6] Guidance and Projections - The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings guidance, projecting total revenues between $5.85 billion and $6.025 billion[9] - For Q2 2025, total revenue guidance is set between $1.435 billion and $1.505 billion[9] Balance Sheet and Assets - The balance sheet as of March 31, 2025, included cash and marketable securities of $369 million and total debt of $35 million[8] - Total current assets increased to $1,650,722 in Q1 2025 from $1,457,774 in Q4 2024, marking an increase of 13.3%[18] - Total liabilities rose to $1,432,607 in Q1 2025 from $1,263,031 in Q4 2024, an increase of 13.4%[18] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 were $138,623, down from $188,231 at the end of Q4 2024, a decrease of 26.4%[18] Medical Margin and Expenses - Medical margin was $128 million, down 19% from $157 million in the same quarter last year[6] - Medical margin for Q1 2025 was $128,012, down from $157,353 in Q1 2024, a decline of 18.6%[29] - General and administrative expenses decreased to $65,956 in Q1 2025 from $76,422 in Q1 2024, a reduction of 13.6%[25] Definitions and Comparisons - Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income adjusted to exclude various items, including interest expense and stock-based compensation[37] - Medical Margin is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to Gross Profit, while Adjusted EBITDA relates to Net Income[38] - Medical Margin and Adjusted EBITDA are used to identify underlying trends and evaluate operating performance over multiple periods[39]

Core Viewpoint - Agilon Health (NYSE: AGL) is experiencing significant growth, with its shares up over 30% in 2025, despite the overall bear market trends [2]. Company Overview - Agilon Health provides primary care physician (PCP) services primarily to Medicare Advantage health insurance plans [2]. - The company is positioned well in the healthcare sector, particularly in the Medicare Advantage market, which is expected to grow [2]. Market Context - The broader market is currently facing turbulent bear market trends, yet Agilon Health is managing to thrive [2]. - The performance of Agilon Health's shares indicates a strong investor interest and confidence in the company's business model and market strategy [2].

Core Viewpoint - Agilon Health's stock price surged 26.1% to close at $5.36, driven by positive sentiment following a recent upgrade from Bernstein and solid trading volume [1][2]. Company Summary - Agilon Health is expected to report break-even quarterly earnings per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -100%, with projected revenues of $1.51 billion, down 6.2% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Agilon has been revised 10% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that may lead to further price appreciation [4]. Industry Context - Agilon Health operates within the Zacks Medical Services industry, which includes other companies like LifeMD, Inc. LifeMD's stock closed 2.5% lower at $4.82, with a 15.8% return over the past month [4]. - LifeMD's consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at -$0.04, representing a 79% improvement from the previous year [5].

Company Overview - Agilon Health (AGL) is currently outperforming its peers in the Medical sector, with a year-to-date return of 131.6% compared to the sector average of 4.9% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Agilon Health is 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook based on earnings estimate revisions and improving earnings outlooks [3] Earnings Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agilon Health's full-year earnings has increased by 21.3% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] - In comparison, another Medical stock, Paragon 28, Inc. (FNA), has returned 26.1% year-to-date, with a consensus EPS estimate increase of 3.1% over the past three months [5] Industry Context - Agilon Health is part of the Medical Services industry, which consists of 59 stocks and is currently ranked 63 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average gain of 5.6% year-to-date [6] - In contrast, Paragon 28, Inc. belongs to the Medical - Instruments industry, which has 84 stocks and is ranked 81, showing a decline of 3.1% year-to-date [6] Investment Outlook - Investors interested in Medical stocks should monitor Agilon Health and Paragon 28, Inc. for their continued strong performance [7]

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan analyst Lisa C. Gill has updated estimates for Agilon Health, Inc. following the fourth-quarter results, indicating a Neutral rating for the stock [1] Financial Performance - Agilon Health reported a fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of $(0.26), which missed the consensus estimate of $(0.23) [1] - The company's sales for the quarter were $1.52 billion, aligning with expectations [1] Future Outlook - For FY25, the revenue estimate has been revised to $5.926 billion, slightly below the consensus of $5.928 billion, down from an earlier estimate of $6.453 billion [3] - The adjusted EBITDA loss estimate for FY25 remains unchanged at $77 million, compared to a consensus loss of $78 million [3] - For FY26, the revenue estimate has been updated to $6.594 billion, below the consensus mean of $6.665 billion, down from a prior estimate of $7.319 billion [3] - The adjusted EBITDA loss estimate for FY26 has changed to $23 million, compared to a consensus loss of $22 million, revised from a previous loss estimate of $10 million [3] Strategic Positioning - The company is expected to navigate a year of transition in 2025, addressing specific challenges while positioning itself to achieve targets for 2026/2027 [2] Investment Opportunities - Investors can gain exposure to Agilon Health through Fidelity Disruptive Medicine ETF FMED and SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF XHS [4] - As of the last check, AGL shares are down 0.48% at $4.18 [4]

Company Overview - Agilon Health (AGL) is a stock in the Medical sector, which includes 1012 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 4 [2] - The Zacks Rank system emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions, with Agilon Health currently holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3] Performance Metrics - Agilon Health has returned approximately 56.8% since the beginning of the calendar year, significantly outperforming the Medical sector average return of about 6.7% [4] - The consensus estimate for Agilon Health's full-year earnings has increased by 14.5% over the past quarter, indicating improved analyst sentiment [3] Industry Comparison - Agilon Health is part of the Medical Services industry, which consists of 59 individual stocks and currently ranks 84 in the Zacks Industry Rank, with an average gain of 2.5% year to date [5] - In contrast, Akero Therapeutics, Inc. (AKRO), another outperforming Medical stock, belongs to the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which has 510 stocks and is currently ranked 71, with a year-to-date gain of 5.7% [6]