PresentationJoshua ChanUBS Investment Bank, Research Division All right. I think we're live. Good morning, everybody. I'm Josh Chan, business services analyst here at UBS. We're pleased today to have APi Group join us. They inspect, service and install billing systems such as fire, security, elevators and HVAC. They also provide infrastructure services to utility and telecom markets. With us from the company today are David Jackola, CFO; and Adam Fee, IR. So we're going to do a fireside chat. So feel free t ...

APi Group (NYSE:APG) Conference December 02, 2025 11:20 AM ET Company ParticipantsDavid Jackola - CFOAdam Fee - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsJosh Chen - Business Services AnalystOperatorReady to go.Josh ChenAll right. I think we're live. Good morning, everybody. I'm Josh Chen, Business Services Analyst here at UBS. We're pleased today to have the APi Group join us. They inspect, service, and install building systems such as fire, security, elevators, and HVAC. They also provide infr ...

Company Overview - APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) operates in the safety, specialty, and industrial services sector, providing services such as fire protection and specialty contracting. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $15.13 billion [1]. Recent Transactions - On November 5, 2025, Franklin Martin E, a director and 10 percent owner of APG, sold 252,122 shares at $35.97 each, leaving him with 19,056,668 shares. The current stock price is $36.38, reflecting a 2.68% increase [2]. - Envestnet Asset Management Inc. reduced its investment in APG by 8.5%, selling 42,287 shares, and now holds 453,652 shares valued at $23.2 million, representing about 0.11% of APG [3]. - Signaturefd LLC increased its stake in APG by 6.7%, now owning 4,067 shares valued at $145,000, while Amalgamated Bank raised its stake by 2.3%, holding 12,253 shares worth $438,000 [4]. Stock Performance - APG's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 52-week high of $37.04 and a low of $20.50. Today's trading volume is 2,668,063 shares, indicating active investor interest [5].

Core Insights - The focus is on rigorous equity and credit research, emphasizing fundamentals-driven analysis [1] - The research methodology includes blending various valuation models to establish a 12-month price target [1] - The sectors of interest include energy, commodities, technology, and financials [1] Research Methodology - The approach involves process-driven research, utilizing full DCF analysis alongside SOTP and peer/multiples analysis [1] - Stress testing 2-4 key variables that influence value or growth is a critical part of the analysis [1] - Fundamental evidence combined with book-value assessments guides the research conclusions [1] Engagement and Collaboration - The company aims to share insights with a broader audience, initially starting with a small group of advisors and analysts [1] - There is an emphasis on the value of diverse viewpoints in enhancing research accuracy [1] - The research is designed for those interested in comprehensive analysis beyond financial statements [1]

Financial Performance - Net revenues for Q3 2025 were $2,085 million, an increase of $259 million or 14.2% compared to $1,826 million in Q3 2024[186]. - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was $652 million, up $85 million or 15.0% from $567 million in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 31.3%[188]. - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $163 million, reflecting a $21 million or 14.8% increase from $142 million in Q3 2024[186]. - Income before income taxes rose to $130 million in Q3 2025, a $30 million or 30.0% increase compared to $100 million in Q3 2024[186]. - Net income for Q3 2025 was $93 million, an increase of $24 million from $69 million in Q3 2024[186]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $281 million, up 14.7% from $245 million in Q3 2024[196]. - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $205 million, a 12.0% increase from $183 million in the same period of 2024[210]. - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $1,809 million, a 12.9% increase from $1,603 million in the same period of 2024[204]. Expenses - Selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased to $489 million in Q3 2025, a rise of $64 million or 15.1% from $425 million in Q3 2024[190]. - SG&A expenses as a percentage of net revenues were 23.5% in Q3 2025, slightly up from 23.3% in Q3 2024[190]. - SG&A expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 were $1,419 million, a 14.9% increase from $1,235 million in the same period of 2024[206]. Revenue Segmentation - The company experienced strong growth in inspection, service, and monitoring revenues, along with project revenues and pricing improvements[187]. - Safety Services net revenues increased by $187 million or 15.4% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[198]. - Specialty Services net revenues rose by $71 million or 11.6% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[201]. - Safety Services net revenues increased by $523 million or 14.9% to $4,032 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $3,509 million in 2024[213]. - Specialty Services net revenues rose by $112 million or 6.8% to $1,765 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $1,653 million in 2024[216]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash provided by operating activities was $377 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, up from $337 million in 2024[234]. - Net cash used in investing activities decreased to $231 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $680 million in 2024, primarily due to reduced acquisition consideration[235]. - Total liquidity as of September 30, 2025, was $1,299 million, consisting of $555 million in cash and cash equivalents and $744 million available under the Revolving Credit Facility[226]. Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased 3,095,573 shares of common stock for approximately $75 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2025[232]. - The Series B Preferred Stock Conversion resulted in approximately 49,205,279 shares of common stock being issued, with the company repurchasing half for $600 million[251]. Debt and Financing - The company completed the Eighth Amendment to its credit agreement, increasing the Revolving Credit Facility from $500 million to $750 million[230]. - As of September 30, 2025, the 2021 Term Loan had a remaining principal amount of $2,157 million, with no amounts outstanding under the Revolving Credit Facility, which had $744 million available[245]. - The interest rate applicable to the 2021 Term Loan is either a base rate plus an applicable margin of 0.75% or a Term SOFR rate plus an applicable margin of 1.75%[242]. Tax and Effective Rates - The effective tax rate for Q3 2025 was 28.2%, down from 30.9% in Q3 2024[194]. Internal Controls and Compliance - The management evaluated the effectiveness of disclosure controls and procedures as of September 30, 2025, concluding they were effective[264]. - Internal control over financial reporting was also deemed effective as of September 30, 2025, based on the 2013 Framework guidelines[266]. - There were no changes in internal control over financial reporting during the quarter ended September 30, 2025, that materially affected its effectiveness[267]. - No material changes to risk factors were reported since the last Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024[268]. Other Information - The HVAC business was realigned from Safety Services to Specialty Services effective January 2025, impacting segment reporting[166]. - The company has concluded its multi-year Chubb restructuring program as of June 30, 2025, with no additional expenses expected[171]. - Revenues from foreign operations represented approximately 35% of consolidated net revenues for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025[256]. - The company has a $720 million interest rate swap maturing in October 2026, exchanging one-month SOFR for a fixed rate of 3.59%[255]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $337 million of 4.125% Senior Notes and $277 million of 4.750% Senior Notes outstanding[246][247]. - The first lien net leverage ratio as of September 30, 2025, was 1.4:1.0, well below the covenant limit of 4.00 to 1.00[244]. - The company did not purchase any equity securities during the three months ended September 30, 2025[269]. - No officers or directors adopted or terminated any Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements during the quarter ended September 30, 2025[271].

Core Insights - APi reported revenue of $2.09 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.2% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.41, up from $0.34 in the same quarter last year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99 billion by 4.98%, and the EPS also surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.39 by 5.13% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Safety Services generated net revenues of $1.4 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.35 billion by analysts, with a year-over-year increase of 5.1% [4] - Specialty Services reported net revenues of $683 million, surpassing the average estimate of $664.32 million, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 38.5% [4] - Corporate and Eliminations segment reported net revenues of -$1 million, slightly better than the average estimate of -$1.5 million, but reflecting a substantial year-over-year decline of 50% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, APi's shares returned +0.2%, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a +3.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - APi reported quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.39 per share, and showing an increase from $0.34 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +5.13% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.09 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.98%, and up from $1.83 billion year-over-year [2] - APi shares have increased approximately 43.7% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Earnings Outlook - The future performance of APi's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.40 on revenues of $2 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.42 on revenues of $7.67 billion [7] Industry Context - The Business - Services industry, to which APi belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - The correlation between near-term stock movements and earnings estimate revisions suggests that tracking these revisions is crucial for investors [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported revenues for Q3 2025 were $2.1 billion, a 14.2% increase compared to $1.83 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of approximately 10% [14] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.5%, representing a 50 basis point increase compared to the prior year [14] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% for Q3 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, a 10 basis point increase year-over-year [14] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.41, a 20.6% increase compared to the prior year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Safety Services segment reported revenues of $1.4 billion, a 15.4% increase compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with organic growth of 8.7% [15] - Specialty Services segment reported organic revenues of $683 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to $612 million in the prior year [16] - Adjusted gross margin for Safety Services was 37.3%, an 80 basis point increase, while Specialty Services had a gross margin of 19.3%, a 60 basis point decrease [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American safety business continued to show double-digit inspection revenue growth, contributing to the overall strong performance in the Safety Services segment [15] - The company is experiencing robust activity in various sectors, including data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, aviation, and healthcare, which are driving growth [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $10 billion in net revenues by 2028, with consistent mid-single-digit organic growth and a target of 16% plus adjusted EBITDA margin [8] - Investments in technology, including AI and market-leading systems, are intended to empower field leaders and improve operational efficiency [6][8] - The company is focused on disciplined customer and project selection, pricing, and selective business pruning to enhance margins and growth [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the strategy and deliver on 2025 targets, citing strong momentum in inspection, service, and monitoring business [12][23] - The company anticipates continued strong free cash flow generation and a robust pipeline for M&A activity, with a focus on North America [11][12] - Management acknowledged the challenges of balancing growth with margin expansion but remains optimistic about achieving long-term margin goals [48][49] Other Important Information - The company completed four bolt-on acquisitions in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 11, with plans to deploy approximately $250 million in M&A at attractive multiples [11][12] - The adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $248 million, representing a conversion rate of 88% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the organic growth in Safety Services? - Management noted robust activity in the data center space and other sectors, with data centers expected to account for 9-10% of total revenue [28][29] Question: How is the M&A pipeline progressing? - Management stated they are on track with M&A activity, focusing on North America, particularly in fire protection and electronic security [31][32] Question: What is the current status of the elevator and escalator segment? - The elevator business is experiencing high single-digit organic growth, with positive cross-selling opportunities developing [74] Question: How do you balance growth with margin expansion? - Management emphasized the importance of project size and complexity in driving margins, indicating a focus on maintaining a balance between growth and profitability [48][49] Question: What is the expected contribution from M&A to revenue next year? - Management indicated that approximately $1 of purchase price translates to about $1 in revenue over a 12-month period, with expectations for accretive contributions from acquisitions [81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported revenues for Q3 2025 were $2.1 billion, a 14.2% increase from $1.83 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of approximately 10% [13] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.5%, a 50 basis point increase compared to the prior year, driven by disciplined customer and project selection [13] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% for Q3 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, representing a 10 basis point increase year-over-year [13][14] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 was $0.41, a 20.6% increase compared to the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Safety Services segment reported revenues of $1.4 billion, a 15.4% increase compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with organic growth of 8.7% [14][15] - Specialty Services segment reported organic revenues of $683 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to $612 million in the prior year [15][16] - Adjusted gross margin for Safety Services was 37.3%, an 80 basis point increase, while Specialty Services saw a gross margin of 19.3%, a 60 basis point decrease [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced double-digit inspection revenue growth in North America for the 21st consecutive quarter [9] - The backlog remains at record highs across both segments, indicating strong future revenue potential [12][71] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow into a $10 billion entity by 2028, with targets of mid-single-digit organic growth and 16%+ adjusted EBITDA margin [6][8] - Investments in technology, including AI and market-leading systems, are intended to empower field leaders and improve operational efficiency [6][8] - The company is focused on disciplined customer and project selection, pricing, and selective business pruning to achieve its financial targets [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the strategy and deliver on 2025 targets, citing strong momentum in inspection, service, and monitoring business [12][21] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the project environment, with expectations for mid to upper single-digit organic growth in the long term [51][72] Other Important Information - The company completed four bolt-on acquisitions in the quarter, bringing the total for the year to 11, with a target of approximately $250 million in M&A activity [11][12] - Free cash flow for Q3 was $248 million, representing an adjusted free cash flow conversion of 88% [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the organic growth in Safety Services? - Management noted robust activity in the data center space, with expectations for data centers to account for 9%-10% of total revenue, alongside strong growth in semiconductor and healthcare sectors [26] Question: How is the M&A pipeline progressing? - Management indicated they are on track with M&A plans, with a focus on North America in fire and security, and noted ongoing activity in the international business [29][30] Question: What is the current status of the elevator and escalator segment? - The elevator segment is experiencing high single-digit organic growth, with positive cross-selling opportunities developing [67] Question: How do you balance growth priorities with M&A? - Management stated they are able to pursue both growth in inspection services and consolidation in the elevator segment simultaneously, leveraging their geographic footprint [36] Question: What are the expectations for incremental margins going forward? - Management indicated that while project work impacts margins, they expect margins to improve as projects progress towards completion [90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Reported revenues for Q3 2025 were $2.1 billion, a 14.2% increase compared to $1.83 billion in the prior year period, with organic growth of approximately 10% [13] - Adjusted gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.5%, representing a 50 basis point increase compared to the prior year period [13] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% for Q3 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, a 10 basis point increase compared to the prior year [13] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for Q3 2025 was $0.41, a 20.6% increase compared to the prior year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Safety Services segment, revenues for Q3 2025 were $1.4 billion, a 15.4% increase compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year, with organic growth of 8.7% [15] - Adjusted gross margin for Safety Services was 37.3%, an 80 basis point increase compared to the prior year [16] - Specialty Services reported organic revenues of $683 million, an increase of 11.6% compared to $612 million in the prior year [16] - Adjusted gross margin for Specialty Services was 19.3%, a 60 basis point decrease compared to the prior year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth in inspection, service, and monitoring revenues, with double-digit inspection growth in North America for the 21st consecutive quarter [9] - The company continues to see robust activity in various sectors, including data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, aviation, and healthcare [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve $10 billion in net revenues by 2028, with consistent mid-single-digit organic growth and a 16% plus adjusted EBITDA margin [8] - Investments in technology, including AI and market-leading systems, are intended to empower field leaders and improve operational efficiency [5][6] - The company is focused on disciplined customer and project selection, pricing, and selective business pruning to enhance margins and growth [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute its strategy and deliver on its financial targets despite evolving macroeconomic conditions [21] - The company anticipates continued strong free cash flow generation and a robust pipeline for M&A activity [11][12] Other Important Information - The company completed four bolt-on acquisitions in Q3 2025, bringing the total for the year to 11, with plans to deploy approximately $250 million in M&A at attractive multiples [11] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was approximately 2.0 times, below the long-term target, providing flexibility for capital deployment [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more detail on the organic growth in Safety Services? - Management noted robust activity in the data center space, with expectations for data centers to account for 9-10% of total revenue, alongside strong growth in semiconductor and healthcare sectors [26] Question: How is the M&A pipeline progressing? - Management confirmed they are on track with M&A activity, with a focus on North America in fire protection and electronic security, while also exploring international opportunities [28] Question: What is the current status of the elevator and escalator segment? - The elevator segment is experiencing high single-digit organic growth, with positive cross-selling opportunities developing [66] Question: How do you balance growth with margin expansion? - Management emphasized the importance of project size and complexity in driving margins, stating that they are confident in achieving their margin expansion goals while pursuing growth [41][42] Question: What is the expected contribution from M&A to revenue next year? - Management indicated that approximately $1 of purchase price typically translates to about $1 in revenue over a 12-month period, with expectations for deals to be accretive to margins [77]