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4 Stocks Trading Near 52-Week High With More Upside Potential
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-01-16 13:17
Investors generally consider a 52-week high as a good criterion to determine an entry or exit point for a given stock. However, stocks touching new 52-week highs are often predisposed to profit-taking, resulting in pullbacks and trend reversals.Moreover, given the high price, investors often wonder if the stock is overpriced. While the speculations are not absolutely baseless, all stocks hitting a 52-week high are not necessarily overpriced.In fact, investors might lose out on top gainers in an attempt to a ...
Arch Resources (ARCH) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Why
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-01-15 15:32
Most of us have heard the dictum "the trend is your friend." And this is undeniably the key to success when it comes to short-term investing or trading. But it isn't easy to ensure the sustainability of a trend and profit from it.The trend often reverses before exiting the trade, leading to a short-term capital loss for investors. So, for a profitable trade, one should confirm factors such as sound fundamentals, positive earnings estimate revisions, etc. that could keep the momentum in the stock alive.Our " ...
What Makes Arch Resources (ARCH) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-01-12 18:32
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2023-10-26 17:20
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Arch Resources achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $126.3 million and generated $86.5 million in discretionary cash flow during Q3 2023 [5][6] - The company repurchased nearly 216,000 shares for $28.2 million and declared a quarterly cash dividend of $21.6 million, or $1.13 per share [6][26] - Operating cash flow totaled $131 million, with a working capital benefit of $16 million, while capital spending was just over $44 million [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The metallurgical segment delivered higher per ton realizations and stronger cash margins, with cash costs expected to be less than $90 per ton, approximately 5% lower than 2022 [13][14] - The thermal segment performed well, with solid supplemental cash flows despite a breakeven performance at West Elk, which is expected to improve in Q4 2023 [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global coking coal prices for Arch's principal product, High-Vol A coal, are assessed at $277 per metric ton, remaining strong despite weak steel market dynamics [9][10] - Coking coal exports from Australia are down by roughly 5 million tons year-to-date, contributing to supply constraints in the metallurgical coal market [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering operational excellence and maintaining a strong financial position while advancing sustainability practices [11][12] - The Board adjusted the capital allocation model to prioritize share repurchases over dividends, reflecting a commitment to return 100% of discretionary cash flow to shareholders [8][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite weak demand in the steel market, supply constraints in metallurgical coal could lead to future price stability [9][10] - The outlook for the thermal segment remains positive, with expectations of substantial margins on thermal export volumes in 2024 and beyond [11][18] Other Important Information - Arch's operations achieved a total loss time incident rate of 0.42 per 200,000 employee hours worked, significantly better than the industry average [20] - The company received the 2023 Excellence in Coal Mining Good Neighbor Award, highlighting its commitment to community engagement [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital return policy and framework - The company plans to allocate 25% of discretionary cash flow for dividends and up to 75% for buybacks, with flexibility based on market conditions [28][29] Question: Production expectations at Leer South - Production is expected to improve, with a target of around 3 million tons annually, and potential for further increases as operations transition to better geological conditions [34][36] Question: Thermal market outlook and pricing - The company anticipates modest reductions in pricing for Powder River Basin operations in 2024, but remains confident in maintaining solid margins [39][41] Question: Coking coal shipment growth potential - The company expects to comfortably exceed 9 million tons at the midpoint for 2024, driven by improved performance at Leer South and other operations [46] Question: West Elk production levels - West Elk is expected to reach around 4 million tons annually, with potential increases to 4.5 to 5 million tons by 2025 as operations improve [52][54]
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2023-10-25 16:00
Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2023 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from to . Commission file number: 1-13105 Arch Resources, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 43-0921172 (Stat ...
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2023-07-27 19:08
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $130 million for Q2 2023, which was lower sequentially and compared to the previous year's second quarter due to weakened market prices for both metallurgical and thermal coal [19][20] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $197 million, an increase of over 56% sequentially, although lower than the previous year's second quarter [20] - Discretionary cash flow for the quarter totaled $151 million, with a declared dividend of $3.97 per share [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coking coal sales for the metallurgical segment totaled $2 million at $6.54 per ton for the first half of the year, with Q2 representing the strongest production quarter for Leer South to date [13][14] - The thermal segment contributed total segment-level EBITDA of $29.2 million, which was higher than initially anticipated, demonstrating excellent cost control [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global hot metal production, excluding China, was down 2.8% through May compared to 2022, contributing to a softening in coking coal markets [9] - High-Vol A coal, the principal product, is currently trading at $210 per metric ton on the US East Coast, with demand remaining weak but prices still supporting healthy margins [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its position in the market by maintaining a strong cash generation capability and a robust capital return program, having returned nearly $1.2 billion to shareholders since relaunching the program in February 2022 [8][12] - The focus remains on expanding the Asian market presence, with expectations of increased demand for coking coal driven by growth in blast furnace capacity in Asia [76][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current market weakness as an opportunity to differentiate the company by highlighting its low-cost position and ability to generate substantial free cash flow [83] - The company expects to return to normal operations at West Elk by Q4 after addressing localized geological challenges [65] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a perfect performance in environmental compliance, achieving zero environmental violations and a 47% reduction in CO2 equivalent emissions since 2011 [17] - The Board is committed to the capital return program, with ongoing discussions about the relative weighting of dividends versus share buybacks [9][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost expectations for the metallurgical segment - Management expressed confidence in achieving cost guidance for the metallurgical segment, despite variability due to mining operations [29][30] Question: Market appetite for spot pricing - Management indicated confidence in managing the met book and remaining exposure, with ongoing efforts to optimize sales [31][33] Question: Discrepancy in asset retirement obligations - Management clarified that the funding on the asset side is primarily directed towards Black Thunder, with ongoing reclamation efforts [34][35] Question: Working capital return expectations - Management expects around $60 million to $65 million in working capital returns in the back half of the year, potentially skewed towards Q4 [43][45] Question: Performance expectations for West Elk - Management confirmed that West Elk is on track to return to normal operations by Q4, following a longwall move to a higher quality area [64][65] Question: Future market flexibility - Management indicated readiness to shift volumes to the seaborne market if it proves to be the best economic option [80]
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q2 - Quarterly Report
2023-07-26 16:00
Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2023 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from to . Commission file number: 1-13105 Arch Resources, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 43-0921172 (State or ...
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2023-04-27 18:06
Arch Resources, Inc. (NYSE:ARCH) Q1 2023 Results Conference Call April 27, 2022 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Deck Slone - Senior Vice President of Strategy Paul Lang - President and Chief Executive Office John Drexler - Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Matthew Giljum - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Lucas Pipes - B. Riley Securities Nathan Martin - The Benchmark Company Michael Dudas - Vertical Research Partners Operator Good day and welco ...
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2023 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2023-04-26 16:00
Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2023 or ☐ Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 For the transition period from to . Commission file number: 1-13105 Arch Resources, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 43-0921172 (State or ...
Arch Resources(ARCH) - 2022 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2023-02-16 16:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2022, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $256.5 million, a more than 15% improvement from Q3 levels [28] - Full year net income exceeded $1.3 billion, translating to $63.88 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA for the year also at $1.3 billion [6][28] - Operating cash flows for Q4 totaled $194 million, marking the lowest quarterly total for the year due to an increase in working capital [28] - The company ended the year with cash on hand of $273 million and total liquidity of $401 million [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The metallurgical segment saw a 16% sequential increase in shipping volumes and a 13% reduction in average unit costs in Q4 [19] - The legacy thermal segment generated $63.2 million in segment-level EBITDA for Q4, despite a decline in sales volumes due to poor rail service [21] - The metallurgical contract book is now approximately 75% contracted for projected 2023 coking coal output, with significant new commitments from Asian steel producers [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Coking coal prices remain well supported, with premium coking coal prices at $385 per metric ton and High-Vol A coking coal at $325 per metric ton [10] - The Newcastle index for thermal coal is currently trading at $220 per metric ton, above historical averages, despite a correction in global markets [14] - Global hot metal production, excluding China, was down 8.8% in 2022, yet the idle blast furnace capacity is starting to turn back on, supporting coking coal demand [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its competitive coking coal portfolio and cash-generating thermal assets to create significant discretionary cash flow in 2023 and beyond [15] - The capital return program was relaunched, targeting a return of 50% of discretionary cash flow via dividends and the other 50% for share buybacks and other value-driving options [9] - The company is focused on expanding its customer base in Asia, which is expected to be a primary growth driver for steel production in the coming decades [81] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving higher sales volumes and lower unit costs in the metallurgical segment for 2023 [8] - The company is prepared to manage through potential market weakness while being well-positioned to capitalize on a strengthening macro environment [15] - Management highlighted the importance of addressing rail service challenges to fully execute plans for the thermal segment in 2023 [22] Other Important Information - The company achieved a record safety performance in 2022, with a safety record four times better than the industry average [7] - The company repaid over 70% of its indebtedness, returning to a net cash positive position within a year of completing its Leer South growth project [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shipment cadence for metallurgical segment - Management indicated that shipments are expected to be flat from Q4 to Q1, with a ratable cadence for the remaining quarters of the year [40] Question: Thermal segment dynamics and sales guidance - Management noted that rail challenges have limited export opportunities, but they are confident in achieving the expected thermal margins [42][45] Question: Working capital build in Q1 - Management anticipates a working capital build of at least $100 million in Q1 due to seasonal factors and rising prices [53] Question: Customer demand and inventory rebuilding - Management expressed confidence in customer demand for committed volumes, despite some headwinds from low natural gas prices [60] Question: M&A landscape and interest in met coal assets - Management stated that while they are open to considering acquisitions, the current environment is challenging for deals [76]