Core Viewpoint - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025, highlighting strong loan originations and expectations for improved earnings in the upcoming quarter [1][3]. Financial Performance - Net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted share was $0.34 for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 [2]. - Distributable Earnings per diluted share was $0.30, while Distributable Earnings prior to realized loss on investments and realized gain on litigation settlement was $0.23 for the same quarter [2]. Loan Originations and Capital Management - The company achieved $1.0 billion in new loan originations during the third quarter, benefiting from the Apollo real estate credit platform [3]. - There was progress in freeing up non-performing capital for redeployment, with expected benefits to earnings starting in the fourth quarter [3]. Distributable Earnings Definition - Distributable Earnings is defined as net income available to common stockholders adjusted for various non-cash items and unrealized gains or losses [5][7]. - The company believes Distributable Earnings is a useful measure for investors to evaluate performance and is a key factor in determining dividends [6][7]. Realized Gains and Losses - During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company recorded realized losses related to a subordinate loan and a promissory note, alongside a realized gain from a litigation settlement [8]. Company Overview - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on originating, acquiring, and managing commercial mortgage loans and related debt investments [11]. - The company is externally managed by ACREFI Management, LLC, a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, which manages approximately $840 billion in assets [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry is experiencing volatility in mortgage rates due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to earnings pressure in the near term [1] Industry Overview - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry consists of mortgage REITs (mREITs) that invest in and originate mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), providing mortgage credit for homeowners and businesses [3] - mREITs typically focus on either residential or commercial mortgage markets, with some investing in both through asset-backed securities [3] - Agency securities, backed by the federal government, are considered safer investments, limiting credit risks [3] - Key revenue metrics for mREITs include net interest margin, which is the spread between interest income on mortgage assets and funding costs [3] Current Challenges - The industry is facing dividend cuts as book values erode due to tightened mortgage spreads and expected higher interest rates, leading to earnings pressure for highly leveraged mREITs [4] - A conservative investment approach is likely to impede returns, as mREITs prioritize risk and liquidity management over growth [5] - Despite a recent Federal Reserve rate cut, mortgage rates remain below the 52-week average of 6.71%, which is driving renewed interest in purchase applications and refinancing activities [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry ranks 185, placing it in the bottom 24% of 243 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [7] - The industry's current-year earnings estimate has decreased by 8.1% over the last year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [8] - Over the past year, the industry has declined by 6.2%, while the broader Zacks Finance sector rose by 17.1% and the S&P 500 grew by 18.2% [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.00X, compared to the S&P 500's 8.8X [13] - The Zacks Finance sector's trailing 12-month P/BV is 4.32X, indicating that the REIT and Equity Trust industry is trading at a significant discount [15] Company Highlights - **Annaly Capital Management (NLY)**: Focuses on prudent asset selection and effective capital allocation, with a diversified investment strategy that includes Agency MBSs and non-agency assets [17][18]. The company's 2025 earnings are estimated at $2.89 per share, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase [19] - **Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)**: Engages in originating and managing commercial mortgage loans, benefiting from a robust origination pipeline and disciplined capital recycling strategy [22][23]. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.04 per share, indicating a 141.9% year-over-year increase [24] - **Ellington Financial (EFC)**: Invests in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, and employs dynamic hedging strategies to manage risks [27][29]. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.74 per share, reflecting a 19.2% year-over-year growth [30]

Core Points - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) will hold a conference call to discuss its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 31, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1] - The financial results will be released after market close on October 30, 2025, and the call will include a review of performance, recent events, and a Q&A session [1] Company Overview - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that focuses on originating, acquiring, investing in, and managing performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments [3] - The company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC, which is an indirect subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc., a global alternative asset manager with approximately $840 billion in assets under management as of June 30, 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The article promotes a portfolio strategy that generates income without the need for selling assets, aiming to simplify retirement investing [1] - It emphasizes the importance of community and education in investment decisions, suggesting that investors should not navigate the market alone [2] Group 1: Portfolio Features - The service offers a model portfolio with buy/sell alerts, catering to both conservative and aggressive investors through preferred and baby bond portfolios [2] - Additional features include dividend and portfolio trackers, regular market updates, and an active chat community with service leaders [2] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on community engagement and educational support, reinforcing the idea that collective knowledge enhances investment success [2] - The service closely monitors positions and provides exclusive buy and sell alerts to its members, indicating a proactive management approach [4]

Group 1 - American Healthcare REIT (AHR) has returned 49.4% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the average Finance sector gain of 13% [4] - AHR is part of the Finance sector, which includes 869 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 1, indicating strong performance relative to other sectors [2] - The Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and revisions, currently gives AHR a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a positive earnings outlook [3] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AHR's full-year earnings has increased by 3.5% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] - AHR is categorized under the REIT and Equity Trust - Other industry, which consists of 99 companies and has an average gain of 4.7% this year, further highlighting AHR's strong performance [6] - Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI), another Finance stock, has returned 20% year-to-date and has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating it is also performing well within the sector [5][7]

Mortgage Market Overview - Mortgage rates are currently at the lowest levels of 2025, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.58% as of August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous week and down from 6.91% at the start of 2025 [1][9] - The decline in mortgage rates reflects market optimism for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, along with changing inflation and bond market dynamics [4] mREITs Performance and Outlook - mREITs such as Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), and Orchid Island Capital (ORC) are expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, which are lifting mortgage originations and driving stronger refinancing activity [5][9] - With improving purchase originations and refinancing activities, mREITs are likely to see book value improvement as Agency market spreads tighten, enhancing net interest spread and financial performance [7][9] Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) - Apollo Commercial has a portfolio of $8.6 billion in loans, primarily secured by properties in the U.S. and European gateway cities, with 96% of its lending consisting of floating-rate loans [10] - Despite a 23.9% year-over-year decline in net interest income (NII) in the first half of 2025, NII is expected to rise due to declining mortgage rates, with a current dividend yield of 9.9% and a payout ratio of 96% [11] Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Annaly manages an $89.5 billion portfolio, with a focus on residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), and Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which helps reduce volatility and interest rate sensitivity [14][15] - NLY's NII increased to $493.2 million in the first half of 2025 from $47.1 million a year ago, supported by improving purchase originations and refinancing, with a current dividend yield of 13.6% and a payout ratio of 99% [16][17] Orchid Island Capital (ORC) - Orchid focuses on Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and has seen its NII rise to $42.9 million in the first half of 2025, compared to net interest expenses of $3.2 million in the same period last year [22] - The company currently offers a dividend yield of 20.4% and has increased its dividend twice in the past five years, with earnings estimates indicating significant year-over-year growth of 450% and 39.7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [23]

Group 1 - Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI) has returned 14.9% year-to-date, outperforming the Finance sector average of 8.5% [4] - The Zacks Rank for Apollo Commercial Finance is 1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARI's full-year earnings has increased by 2.1% over the past quarter, reflecting improving analyst sentiment [3] Group 2 - Apollo Commercial Finance is part of the REIT and Equity Trust industry, which consists of 33 companies and is currently ranked 181 in the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The average return for the REIT and Equity Trust industry is 0.6% year-to-date, indicating that ARI is performing significantly better [6] - American Healthcare REIT (AHR), another outperforming stock in the Finance sector, has returned 40.3% year-to-date [4]

Group 1 - David A. Johnson is the founder and principal of Endurance Capital Management, a New Jersey Limited Liability Company, with over 30 years of investment experience [1] - Johnson's investment strategy includes a diverse range of assets such as stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, REITs, real estate, closed-end funds, hedge funds, and private credit [1] - He holds a Master of Science (MS) Degree in Finance with a concentration in Investment Analysis from Boston University, a Certificate in Financial Planning, and an MBA from Fordham University [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI) has received a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) upgrade, indicating a positive outlook for its stock price due to an upward trend in earnings estimates [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, tracking the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS from sell-side analysts [2]. - The Zacks rating upgrade reflects a positive comment on Apollo Commercial Finance's earnings outlook, which is expected to favorably impact its stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimates on Stock Prices - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as shown by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [5]. - Institutional investors often use earnings estimates to calculate the fair value of stocks, leading to significant price movements based on their buying or selling actions [5]. Performance of Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank stock-rating system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - The upgrade of Apollo Commercial Finance to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11]. Recent Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, Apollo Commercial Finance is expected to earn $1.05 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.2% over the past three months [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARI reported distributable earnings of $36 million or $0.26 per share for Q2 2025, an 8% increase from the previous quarter, providing dividend coverage of about 104 times [7][11] - The carrying value of ARI's portfolio increased 12% from the prior quarter to approximately $8.6 billion, up from $7.7 billion at the end of Q1 [8][10] - The weighted average unlevered yield of the portfolio was 7.8% [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARI committed $1.4 billion to new loans during Q2 2025, with year-to-date commitments totaling $2 billion [2][9] - Loans secured by residential properties now comprise approximately 25% of ARI's portfolio, representing the largest property type concentration [3] - The portfolio's risk rating remained stable at 3.0, with no downgrades or asset-specific CECL allowances recorded during the quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 50% of ARI's portfolio is in Europe, which accounted for 18% of originations year-to-date, benefiting from recent interest rate cuts [3] - The market for acquisitions in Europe is gaining momentum, with a healthy pipeline across property types [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARI is focused on executing value maximization plans for its focus assets, aiming to convert underperforming capital into higher-yielding reinvestment opportunities [5] - The company plans to continue capital rotation, which is expected to positively impact earnings in 2025 and throughout 2026 [5] - ARI's strategy includes maintaining a diversified loan portfolio and leveraging Apollo's real estate credit platform for transaction flow [2] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to redeploy capital into newly originated loans and identify attractive opportunities across the U.S. and Western Europe [2] - The management noted that the commercial real estate market is expected to remain robust through the end of the year, with increased deal flow and activity [34][35] - There is ongoing dialogue about potentially extending the duration of the portfolio, but no significant shift in strategy is expected at this time [38] Other Important Information - ARI completed a new five-year floating rate $750 million term loan B, which repaid existing loans with pending maturities in 2026 and 2028 [6] - The company ended the quarter with $2.8 billion in total liquidity, including cash on hand and committed undrawn credit capacity [12] - A settlement agreement with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is expected to yield approximately $18 million for ARI, which will be recycled into new loan origination [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected timeline for cash flow from the Brook asset? - Management anticipates meaningful progress on leasing by the end of the year, with the asset turning modestly cash flow positive in early next year [17] Question: Is there potential upside from land parcels near the Brook? - Discussions are ongoing regarding a small parcel that could increase density, but it is too early to predict the likelihood of success [22] Question: What is the plan for the capital structure and leverage? - Management plans to maintain current leverage levels while converting non-earning assets into earning assets to drive dividend growth [25] Question: How does the company view the commercial real estate transaction market? - Management is optimistic about the transaction market, noting increased activity and confidence in finding suitable opportunities [34] Question: Is ARI considering extending the duration of its portfolio? - While monitoring the situation, management does not expect a meaningful shift in strategy at this time [38] Question: What is the outlook for senior housing investments? - Management is focused on private pay senior housing, which is expected to benefit from favorable demographic trends [52]