Core Viewpoint - Investors in Axos Financial, Inc. should closely monitor the stock due to significant movements in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Jan 17, 2025 $17.50 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, with high levels suggesting a potential significant move or an upcoming event that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - The current high implied volatility for Axos Financial options may signal a developing trade opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capture decay [4] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Axos Financial holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry, which is in the top 35% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised their earnings estimate for the current quarter, while another has lowered theirs, resulting in a slight decrease in the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.81 to $1.80 per share [3]

Core Insights - Short sellers aim to profit from declining stock prices by exposing alleged misconduct or fraud in target companies, which can lead to a sell-off and further price drops [1] - Short selling can backfire, leading to a short squeeze if the targeted company disputes claims or releases positive information [2] Company Analysis: Stride Inc. (NYSE: LRN) - Fuzzy Panda Research alleged that Stride's earnings were inflated due to reliance on ESSER COVID funding, predicting an "EBITDA cliff" as these funds diminish [2][3] - The report triggered a 9% drop in Stride's stock price, falling from $70.66 to a low of $63.37 on the day of the report [4] - Following the report, Stride released strong fiscal Q1 2025 earnings, with EPS of 94 cents, exceeding estimates by 72 cents, and revenues of $551.08 million, up 14.8% YoY [5] - Stride's stock surged 45.4% in response to the earnings report, indicating a significant short squeeze [6] Company Analysis: Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE: AX) - Hindenburg Research claimed Axos Financial was at risk due to its exposure to high-risk asset classes and lax underwriting practices, suggesting potential accounting improprieties [7] - The stock initially dropped nearly 16% to $44.10 following the report but rebounded to $52.46 within two days, indicating a recovery from the short-selling pressure [8] - Axos Financial's stock later climbed 79.57% from its low of $44.10, reaching a high of $79.16, suggesting that short sellers faced losses if they entered positions after the report [8]

Needham analyst Kyle Peterson initiated coverage on Axos Financial, Inc. AX with a Buy rating and a price target of $82.00.The analyst writes that, unlike traditional banks, the company avoids a broad branch strategy, enhancing profitability and efficiency while expanding its total addressable market.Importantly, Axos Financial holds a full banking license, which offers stickier and cheaper funding for loans compared to warehouse lines and enables in-house banking products, adds the analyst.The analyst says ...

Core Viewpoint - Axos Financial is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak, with a history of surpassing earnings estimates and a positive Earnings ESP indicating favorable prospects for the upcoming report [1][2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Axos Financial has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 7.23% over the last two quarters [1]. - In the last reported quarter, the company achieved earnings of $1.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.80 per share by 1.67% [1]. - For the previous quarter, Axos Financial reported earnings of $1.94 per share against an expectation of $1.72 per share, resulting in a surprise of 12.79% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Axos Financial have been trending upward, contributing to a positive Earnings ESP of +0.22%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [2][3]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that nearly 70% of stocks with this combination exceed consensus estimates [2][3]. Group 3: Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [3]. - A positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts have recently become more bullish on the company's earnings, enhancing the predictive power for potential earnings surprises [3].

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 __________________________________________________________________________________________ FORM 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024 ☐ TRANSITION REPORT UNDER SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Commission file number: 001-37709 __________________________________________________________________________________________ AXOS FIN ...

Investment Thesis - Axos Financial has demonstrated strong performance with double-digit earnings and book value growth for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting a premium valuation is warranted compared to the sector median [2][4] - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 8.7x forward earnings, indicating potential for upside [2] Company Overview - Axos Financial is a diversified financial services company with approximately $22.6 billion in assets and $35.0 billion in assets under custody, comprising Axos Bank, Axos Clearing LLC, and Axos Invest [3] - Axos Bank offers consumer and commercial banking products through digital platforms, while Axos Clearing LLC serves as a full-service clearing firm, and Axos Invest provides digital investment advisory services [3] - The company has shown resilience during economically volatile times, with net interest income increasing from $477.6 million to $961.4 million over the past TTM [3] Performance Metrics - The return on average shareholder equity for the last twelve months ended June 30, 2024, was 21.6%, significantly higher than the sector median of 10% [4][5] - Axos Financial achieved a 26% year-over-year growth in tangible book value per share, with total non-performing loans decreasing by $9 million linked quarter [5] Management Quality - The quality of management at Axos Bank is a key factor in its outperformance, demonstrating competence in market trends, loan origination, and deposit management [6] - The capital to risk-weighted assets ratio was 13.80% as of June 30, 2024, indicating strong capital adequacy and prudent risk management [6] Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans - Axos Financial's CRE loans are primarily in multifamily properties, with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 40%, reflecting prudent risk management [7] - The company has reduced exposure to certain CRE sectors, preparing for potential economic downturns, with multifamily loans remaining attractive due to ongoing rental demand [7] Valuation - The estimated fair value of Axos Financial's stock is $90, based on a projected 15% annual growth rate in book value and earnings, applying a premium earnings multiple of 11.5x [8] - The stock is considered remarkably cheap given its strong growth and profitability profile, with management actively buying back shares at a significant discount [8]

For the quarter ended June 2024, Axos Financial (AX) reported revenue of $290.92 million, up 23% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.83, compared to $1.50 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $296.02 million, representing a surprise of -1.72%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +1.67%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.80.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how t ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of approximately $105 million for Q4 2024, representing a 20% increase year-over-year [7] - Earnings per share for the three and twelve months ended June 30, 2024, were $1.80 and $7.66, reflecting year-over-year growth of 23% and 51% respectively [7] - The tangible book value per share grew by 26% year-over-year [5] - The net interest margin was 4.65% for Q4 2024, up 46 basis points from 4.19% in Q4 2023, but down from 4.87% in Q3 2024 [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan originations for investment were $2.5 billion for Q4 2024, up approximately 11% year-over-year [8] - Ending loan balances increased by 2.7% quarter-over-quarter and 16.9% year-over-year to $19.2 billion [5] - Average loan yields for Q4 2024 were 8.55%, down 10 basis points from the prior quarter but up 104 basis points year-over-year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total deposits increased by $256 million in Q4 2024 and by $2.2 billion for the fiscal year [11] - Non-interest bearing deposits were approximately $3 billion, up $220 million quarter-over-quarter [11] - The company maintained a diverse mix of funding, with consumer and small business deposits representing 62% of total deposits [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on adding net new assets from existing and new advisors to grow assets under custody and cash balances [12] - Management emphasized the importance of integrating treasury management teams to enhance deposit growth [20] - The company plans to continue evaluating organic and inorganic growth initiatives while remaining opportunistic with capital deployment [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the loan growth outlook remains consistent, expecting high single digits to low teens year-over-year growth [16] - The company anticipates that net interest margin benefits from the FDIC loan purchase will be 30 to 40 basis points for fiscal year 2025 [12] - Management expressed optimism about maintaining net interest margin and returns above long-term targets in fiscal 2025 [15] Other Important Information - Non-performing loans decreased in various segments, with non-performing loans in the commercial specialty real estate portfolio remaining unchanged at approximately $26 million [10] - The company repurchased $13.2 million of common stock in Q4 2024 at an average share price of $48, with approximately $106 million remaining in the authorized share repurchase program [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Deposit initiatives and success areas - Management discussed investments in treasury management teams and the integration of these teams to enhance deposit growth [20] Question: Trends in funding costs - Management noted a downward trend in funding costs and the ability to cut rates slightly [22] Question: Feedback on UDB rollout and AI opportunities - Management reported positive feedback on the UDB rollout and ongoing efforts to leverage AI for operational improvements [24][25] Question: Broker dealer fee income decline - Management indicated that the decline in broker dealer fee income was likely at a low point and attributed some fluctuations to one-time items [28] Question: Competitive dynamics and regulatory impacts - Management stated that they are not currently seeing significant competitive pressures regarding cash sorting fees [31] Question: Loan growth outlook and repayments - Management acknowledged unexpected loan repayments contributing to excess liquidity but maintained a positive outlook for loan growth [49][51]

Axos Financial (AX) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.83 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.80 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.50 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 1.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this bank holding company would post earnings of $1.72 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.94, delivering a surprise of 12.79%.Over the last four quarters, the ...

Loan and Asset Management - Axos reported a loan balance of $19.803 billion in Q4 FY24, an increase of $486 million from Q3 FY24[2] - The company completed a purchase of $1.25 billion in loans from the FDIC at a 37% discount, with a total unpaid principal balance of $1.231 billion across various loan types[4] - The weighted average yield on total loans was 6.9%, with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 58.8%[4] - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) stood at $261 million, representing 1.3% of total loans[14] - Non-accrual loans totaled $113 million, accounting for 0.57% of total loans outstanding[16] - The company reported a significant increase in asset-based and cash flow lending, with a growth of $180 million to $1.797 billion[3] - Multifamily loans accounted for a balance of $2.541 billion, down $122 million from the previous quarter[3] Deposits and Equity - Approximately 90% of deposits are FDIC-insured or collateralized, with total deposit balances reaching $19.803 billion as of June 30, 2024[11] - Total deposits rose to $19,359,217 thousand, compared to $19,103,532 thousand in the prior quarter, marking an increase of 1.33%[20] - Total stockholders' equity improved to $2,290,596 thousand, up from $2,196,293 thousand, indicating a growth of 4.29%[20] - The equity to assets ratio at the end of the period was 10.02%, up from 9.70% in the previous quarter[20] - Common equity tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets increased to 12.01%, compared to 11.47% in the prior quarter[20] - Tier 1 leverage ratio to adjusted average assets was 9.43%, slightly up from 9.33% in the previous quarter[20] - Net capital as a percentage of aggregate debit items was 42.21%, an increase from 38.73% in the prior quarter[20] Income and Earnings - Net income for June 30, 2024, was $104,872,000, a decrease from $110,720,000 in the previous quarter[22] - Adjusted earnings for June 30, 2024, were $106,727,000, compared to $112,655,000 in the previous quarter[25] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for June 30, 2024, was $1.84, down from $1.94 in the previous quarter[22] - Diluted EPS for June 30, 2024, was $1.80, compared to $1.91 in the previous quarter[22] - Non-interest income for June 30, 2024, was $30,861,000, down from $33,163,000 in the previous quarter[22] - Return on average assets for June 30, 2024, was 1.81%, a decrease from 1.98% in the previous quarter[22] - Return on average common stockholders' equity for June 30, 2024, was 18.81%, down from 20.71% in the previous quarter[22] Shareholder Value - Book value per common share increased to $40.26 as of June 30, 2024, from $38.48 in the previous quarter[22] - Tangible book value per common share increased to $37.26 as of June 30, 2024, from $35.46 in the previous quarter[22] - Tangible common stockholders' equity increased to $2,119,903 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up from $2,023,839 thousand in March 2024, representing a growth of 4.76%[27] - Book value per common share rose to $40.26 in June 2024, compared to $38.48 in March 2024, reflecting an increase of 4.63%[27] - Tangible book value per common share reached $37.26 in June 2024, up from $35.46 in March 2024, indicating a growth of 5.06%[27] - Common shares outstanding decreased to 56,894,565 as of June 30, 2024, from 57,079,429 in March 2024, a decline of 0.33%[27] - Goodwill and intangible assets decreased to $141,769 thousand in June 2024, down from $144,324 thousand in March 2024, a reduction of 3.54%[27] Asset Growth - Total assets increased to $22,855,334 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up from $22,642,133 thousand in March 31, 2024, representing a growth of 0.94%[20] - Net loans reached $19,231,385 thousand, an increase from $18,733,455 thousand in the previous quarter, reflecting a growth of 2.66%[20] - Customer, broker-dealer and clearing receivables decreased to $240,028 thousand from $292,630 thousand, a decline of 17.93%[20] - Securities—available-for-sale decreased to $141,611 thousand from $207,582 thousand, a decline of 31.87%[20] Strategic Focus - The company serves approximately 40% of U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy trustees, indicating a strong position in the bankruptcy servicing market[11] - Axos is focused on geographic expansion and enhancing team capabilities to improve its treasury and cash management services[11]