Core Insights - Evolent Health, Inc. reported a revenue of $621.4 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, representing an increase of $110.4 million or 21.6% compared to the same period in 2023 [1][4][7] - The company experienced a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $(31.2) million, with a net loss margin of (5.0)%, an improvement from (6.5)% in the previous year [1][4][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $31.8 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.1%, down from 9.5% in the same quarter of 2023 [1][4][7] - Evolent announced six new contract agreements during the quarter, marking the highest number of new agreements in a single quarter in the company's history [5][11] Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $621.4 million, up from $511.0 million in the same quarter of 2023 [4][7] - Cost of revenue increased to $540.7 million from $386.6 million year-over-year [7][22] - Selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $67.1 million from $96.6 million in the prior year [7][22] - Adjusted income attributable to common shareholders was $4.7 million, compared to $20.0 million in the same quarter of 2023 [8][41] Business Outlook - The company revised its outlook for Adjusted EBITDA for 2024, expecting it to be in the range of $160.0 million to $175.0 million for the full year [11][12] - Evolent continues to anticipate average annual revenue growth exceeding 15% and average Adjusted EBITDA growth of 20% on a long-term basis [12][11] - The company is taking aggressive actions to improve profitability, particularly in response to rising medical costs and losses in its Performance Suite [3][4] New Contracts and Market Position - The six new agreements include significant partnerships with major payers and health plans, indicating strong demand for Evolent's solutions in managing complex health conditions [5][11] - The company noted a $42 million increase in medical costs in the third quarter, attributed to new data and an industry-wide spike in oncology costs [3][4] - Evolent's diversified business is performing at or better than expectations, despite challenges in the Performance Suite [3][4]

The upcoming report from Evolent Health (EVH) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, indicating no change from the year-ago quarter compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $625.58 million, representing an increase of 22.4% year over year.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 2.4% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial fore ...

Core Viewpoint - Evolent Health (EVH) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, continuing a trend of strong performance in earnings surprises [1]. Earnings Performance - Evolent Health has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 52.38% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Evolent Health achieved earnings of $0.30 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share, resulting in a surprise of 42.86% [3]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to earn $0.21 per share but delivered $0.34 per share, leading to a surprise of 61.90% [3]. Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent earnings estimates for Evolent Health have been revised upward, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Evolent Health is currently +13.33%, suggesting that analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [7]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat [7]. Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [5]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Evolent Health (EVH) to report flat earnings of $0.30 per share for the quarter ended September 2024, with revenues expected to rise by 22.4% to $625.58 million compared to the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for November 7, and the stock may experience upward movement if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.4% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +13.33% for Evolent Health, suggesting analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [10]. - Despite the positive Earnings ESP, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [10]. Historical Performance - Evolent Health has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having surpassed expectations in the last four quarters, including a +42.86% surprise in the most recent quarter [11][12]. Industry Comparison - Clarivate PLC (CLVT), another player in the Zacks Internet - Software industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.19 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.5% [16]. - Clarivate's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.1%, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate results in a positive Earnings ESP of 2.15%, indicating a likely earnings beat [17].

Company to Participate in Upcoming Conferences WASHINGTON, Oct. 11, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE: EVH), a company that specializes in better health outcomes for people with complex conditions through proven solutions that make health care simpler and more affordable, today announced it will release its third quarter 2024 financial results on Thursday, November 7, 2024, after market close, with a conference call to follow at 5 p.m. ET. Shareholders and interested participants may listen to ...

Investment Thesis - Evolent Health (EVH) is rumored to be taken private with a bid valuing the company at approximately $3.8 billion [2] - The current bid implies a valuation of 21x forward free cash flow to enterprise value, suggesting a potential 15% upside to the stock price at $32 per share [2] - The company may still be undervalued, and further bids could emerge in the coming days [2] Evolent's Business Model - Evolent Health provides healthcare services and technology solutions aimed at improving care quality and reducing costs for patients with complex conditions [3] - The company partners with health plans to manage care in expensive treatment areas like oncology and cardiology [3] - Evolent uses data-driven strategies and advanced payment models to optimize healthcare costs, creating value for customers such as insurance companies [3] Revenue Growth and Earnings - Evolent's revenue growth rates are expected to decelerate substantially in the second half of 2024 [4] - The company has a history of modest earnings surprises, with recent surprises ranging from -1.52% to 6.80% [6] - Despite a slight improvement in revenue growth rates in early 2024, the market has been skeptical of Evolent's prospects prior to acquisition rumors [6] Valuation and Financial Outlook - Evolent could be acquired for $3.8 billion, with Elevance Health (ELV) being a potential bidder [8] - The company is targeting $220 million in free cash flow by the end of 2024 and a $300 million exit run rate by year-end [8][10] - Evolent's enterprise value is estimated at $4.5 billion, factoring in $200 million in preferred shares, $600 million in debt, and $100 million in cash and marketable securities [11] - A higher bid of $4.3 billion for equity could push the enterprise value to $5 billion, representing a 23x forward free cash flow multiple [11] Market Reaction and Stock Performance - Prior to acquisition rumors, Evolent's stock was down approximately 15% year-to-date [12] - The stock saw a decline from earlier highs despite Q2 2024 earnings results, but acquisition rumors have sparked renewed investor interest [7] - If acquisition talks fall through, the stock could drop, but the company remains undervalued at 18x to 20x forward free cash flow [14] Potential Upside - A takeover bid could drive Evolent's shares up by an additional 15% in the coming weeks [14] - The combination of a solid business model and the possibility of a lucrative buyout makes Evolent a compelling investment opportunity [14]

Core Insights - Evolent Health reported a revenue of $647.15 million for the quarter ended June 2024, marking a 37.9% increase year-over-year and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.04% [1] - The company's EPS was $0.30, up from $0.14 in the same quarter last year, resulting in a surprise of 42.86% over the consensus estimate of $0.21 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average PMPM Fees / Revenue per Case - Performance Suite: $22.30, surpassing the average estimate of $21.16 [3] - Average PMPM Fees / Revenue per Case - Specialty Technology and Services Suite: $0.38, matching the average estimate [3] - Average PMPM Fees / Revenue per Case - Administrative Services: $15.97, exceeding the average estimate of $14.93 [3] Additional Performance Metrics - Average PMPM Fees / Revenue per Case - Cases: $2,849, above the average estimate of $2,758.50 [4] - Average Lives on Platform / Cases - Performance Suite: 6.9 million, below the average estimate of 7.11 million [4] - Average Lives on Platform / Cases - Specialty Technology and Services Suite: 71.7 million, below the average estimate of 72.78 million [4] - Average Lives on Platform / Cases - Administrative Services: 1.27 million, slightly above the average estimate of 1.24 million [4] Revenue Breakdown by Product Type - Total Revenue by product type - Performance Suite: $461.60 million, exceeding the average estimate of $451.34 million [6] - Total Revenue by product type - Cases: $43.26 million, above the average estimate of $42.74 million [6] - Total Revenue by product type - Administrative Services: $60.77 million, surpassing the average estimate of $55.70 million [6] - Total Revenue by product type - Specialty Technology and Services Suite: $81.52 million, below the average estimate of $82.95 million [6] Stock Performance - Evolent Health shares have returned +6.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -4.5% change [7] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolent reported Q2 2024 revenue of $647.1 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 37.9%, all driven organically [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $52 million, slightly lower than the midpoint of expectations [12] - The company ended the quarter with a cash position of $101 million after an outflow of $89 million for the earn-out to the former owner of NIA [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Specialty Technology and Services revenue was $81.5 million, down $7.5 million sequentially due to Medicaid redetermination and lower one-time quarterly revenue compared to Q1 2024 [23] - Evolent secured four new revenue agreements in Q2, adding over $70 million in new annualized revenue bookings across Performance Suite and Technology and Services [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company averaged 39.9 million unique members in Q2, with an average of two products deployed per unique member, totaling 79.9 million product members [11] - Medicaid membership declines were approximately 15%, consistent with expectations due to redeterminations [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Evolent is focused on enhancing its clinical value proposition and expanding profitability through disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiencies [18][21] - The company aims to achieve a $300 million adjusted EBITDA exit run rate by the end of 2024, with confidence in reaching this target despite current utilization trends [6][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in capturing approximately $60 million in additional revenue on an annualized basis from new rates aligned with partners [7] - The company anticipates that the majority of economic benefits from rate increases will begin in Q3 2024 [7] - Management noted that the impact of Medicaid redeterminations has been largely captured in revenue and earnings through Q2, indicating a positive outlook moving forward [9] Other Important Information - Evolent completed the acquisition of Machinify Technology, which is expected to enhance operational efficiencies and expand product offerings [19][20] - The company is targeting up to $50 million in annualized EBITDA improvement from the Machinify solution in the coming years [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility on rate increases and mechanisms for future adjustments - Management confirmed alignment with partners on rate increases, with about 60% of the $35 million expected to be formalized soon [38][39] Question: Decision to exit certain markets and revenue impact - The decision was made collaboratively with a payer to narrow the scope due to elevated prevalence and acuity, with no expected impact on adjusted EBITDA [40] Question: Margin maturation for the Performance Suite - Management indicated that the margin maturation includes both initial actuarial conservatism and driving underlying clinical value, with expectations for continued improvement [42][43] Question: Timing of Medicare shared savings and rate increases - Management expects to see a revenue true-up from the Medicare shared savings program in Q3, which is incorporated into guidance [44][45] Question: Cost trends and leading indicators - Management noted that while leading indicators have improved, costs remained elevated, only partially covered by rate increases [51] Question: Automatic triggers in risk-based contracts - Management stated that some contracts have negotiated provisions for automatic rate adjustments, while others require broader discussions [53][54] Question: Machinify technology rollout - The Machinify platform is live and in demand, with significant interest from payers for managing long-tail specialties [67][68]

Evolent Health (EVH) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.21 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.14 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 42.86%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this health care software and consulting services provider would post earnings of $0.21 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.34, delivering a surprise of 61. ...

Revenue of $647.1 million, an increase of $178.0 million or 37.9%, from the three months ended June 30, 2023. Net loss attributable to common shareholders of Evolent Health, Inc. of $(6.4) million and a net loss margin of (1.0)%. Adjusted EBITDA of $52.0 million resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.0%. Narrows revenue outlook for full year 2024 and provides updated 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Reiterates confidence in achieving $300 million in Adjusted EBITDA run rate exiting 2024. WASHINGTON, Aug. ...