Core Viewpoint - Forestar Group (FOR) has shown a 5% increase in stock price over the past four weeks, with a mean price target of $33 indicating a potential upside of 27.6% from the current price of $25.86 [1] Group 1: Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The mean estimate for FOR includes four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $5.1, suggesting variability in analyst predictions. The lowest estimate is $26.00 (0.5% increase), while the highest is $38.00 (47% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets indicates strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9] Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Analyst Optimism - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about FOR's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 8.1%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] Group 3: Zacks Rank and Investment Implications - FOR currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates, indicating strong potential for upside in the near term [13] - While the consensus price target may not be entirely reliable, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a useful guide for investors [14]

分组1 - Forestar Group Inc. (NYSE:FOR) is considered one of the most undervalued REIT stocks currently available for investment [1] - The company reported fiscal first quarter 2026 revenue of $273 million, exceeding expectations of $265.48 million by 2.83% [1] - Earnings per share were $0.30, which fell short of Citizens' projection of $0.34 and the average forecast of $0.32, primarily due to a 17% year-over-year decline in lots sold [1][2] 分组2 - To counteract the lower volume of lots sold, Forestar Group increased its average selling price by marketing larger lots with more exposure to Western markets [2] - The weaker performance is attributed to ongoing affordability issues in the entry-level real estate market, where house prices remain high relative to mortgage rates [2] - Forestar Group is one of the largest residential community developers in the United States, focusing on acquiring entitled real estate and developing it into finished residential lots for sale to homebuilders [3]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher" rather than traditional strategies of "buying low and selling high" [1] Group 1: Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investors often face challenges in determining the right entry point for fast-moving stocks, which can lead to investments with limited upside or potential downside [2] - A safer approach involves investing in bargain stocks that exhibit recent price momentum, utilizing tools like the Zacks Momentum Style Score to identify these opportunities [3] Group 2: Forestar Group (FOR) Analysis - Forestar Group (FOR) has shown a four-week price change of 2.2%, indicating growing investor interest and positioning it well in the market [4] - The stock has gained 0.6% over the past 12 weeks and has a beta of 1.42, suggesting it moves 42% more than the market in either direction, indicating strong momentum [5] - FOR has a Momentum Score of B, suggesting it is an opportune time to invest in the stock to capitalize on its momentum [6] Group 3: Earnings Estimates and Valuation - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has contributed to FOR earning a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), which is associated with strong momentum effects as analysts raise earnings estimates [7] - FOR is trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.76, indicating it is relatively undervalued, as investors pay only 76 cents for each dollar of sales [7] Group 4: Additional Investment Opportunities - Besides FOR, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, suggesting further investment opportunities [8] - The Zacks Premium Screens offer over 45 different strategies to help identify potential winning stock picks based on individual investing styles [9]

David focuses on growth & momentum stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market over the long-term. He is a long term investor of quality stocks and uses options for strategy. David told investors to buy in March 2009 at the bottom of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 increased 367% and the Nasdaq increased 685% from 2009 through 2019. He wants to help make people money by investing in high-quality growth stocks.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative ...

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the Quarterly Period Ended December 31, 2025 or ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the Transition Period From To Commission File Number: 001-33662 FOR Logo.jpg FORESTAR GROUP INC. (Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter) (Registrant' ...

Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 fiscal 2026 decreased 7% to $15.4 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, compared to $16.5 million, or $0.32 per diluted share in Q1 fiscal 2025[3] - Revenues for Q1 fiscal 2026 increased 9% to $273.0 million from $250.4 million in the same quarter of fiscal 2025[3] - Return on equity was 9.8% for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2025[4] - Book value per share increased 10% to $35.10[7] Sales and Lots - Lots sold during Q1 fiscal 2026 decreased 17% to 1,944 lots compared to 2,333 lots in Q1 fiscal 2025[5] - The company expects to deliver between 14,000 and 15,000 lots in fiscal 2026, generating $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion of revenue[9] Assets and Liquidity - The company's lot position at December 31, 2025, was 101,000 lots, with 24,100 lots under contract to be sold, representing approximately $2.2 billion of future revenue[6] - The company ended the quarter with $211.7 million of unrestricted cash and $607.6 million of available borrowing capacity, totaling $819.3 million in liquidity[8] - The net debt to total capital ratio at the end of the quarter was 24.6%[8] - Real estate assets totaled $2.9 billion as of December 31, 2025[7]

Core Insights - Forestar Group reported a solid first quarter with revenue growth of 9% year-over-year, reaching $273 million, but net income decreased to $15.4 million due to margin pressures [3][4][7] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.1%, down from 22.0% in the same quarter last year, primarily due to a low-margin tract sale; excluding this sale, the gross margin would have been approximately 21.5% [2][7] - Pre-tax income was $20.8 million with a pre-tax margin of 7.6%, compared to $21.9 million and 8.7% in the prior-year quarter [3][7] Investment and Liquidity - The company invested $415 million in the quarter, with plans to invest about $1.4 billion for fiscal 2026, maintaining a disciplined investment pace [5][17] - Forestar ended the quarter with approximately $820 million in liquidity, including $212 million in unrestricted cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 24.6% [18] Lot Position and Customer Relationships - Forestar holds a total lot position of 101,000 lots, with 65% owned and 35% controlled through purchase contracts; 10,400 lots are finished and under contract to sell [6][19] - D.R. Horton is the largest customer, with 16% of homes started in the past year on Forestar-developed lots, and a goal for one in three D.R. Horton homes to be on Forestar lots [15][16] Market Conditions and Operational Outlook - Demand for new homes is pressured by affordability constraints, but mortgage rate buy-down incentives are helping to support demand [12] - The company is focusing on developing lots for entry-level and first-time buyers, which represent the largest segment of the new home market [13][20] Guidance and Future Outlook - Forestar is maintaining its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion and lot deliveries of 14,000 to 15,000 lots, while expecting margins to remain at the lower end of the historical range of 21% to 23% [4][20]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the first quarter increased by 9% to $273 million compared to $250.4 million in the prior year quarter [4][5] - Net income was $15.4 million or $0.30 per diluted share, down from $16.5 million or $0.32 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [5] - Book value per share increased by 10% from a year ago to $35.10 [4][13] - Pre-tax income decreased to $20.8 million from $21.9 million in the prior year quarter, with a pre-tax profit margin of 7.6% compared to 8.7% [5][6] - Gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.1%, down from 22% in the same quarter last year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 1,944 lots in the quarter with an average sales price of $121,000, influenced by a mix of lot deliveries from higher price point communities [4][5] - SG&A expense was $36.5 million, representing 13.4% of revenues, compared to $36 million or 14.4% in the prior year quarter [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for new homes is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, although mortgage rate buy-down incentives are helping to spur demand [8] - The company’s total lot position was 101,000 lots, with 65% owned and 35% controlled through purchase contracts [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to consolidate market share in the fragmented lot development industry while maintaining financial strength and operational expertise [5][12] - The focus remains on developing lots for entry-level and first-time buyers, which is the largest segment of the new home market [8][25] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2026, subject to market conditions [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that home affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment will continue to be near-term headwinds for new home demand [15][16] - The company maintains its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion and lot delivery guidance of 14,000 to 15,000 lots [15] - The company is confident in the long-term demand for finished lots and its ability to gain market share [16] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $820 million of liquidity, including an unrestricted cash balance of $212 million [13] - The capital structure provides operational flexibility and positions the company to take advantage of attractive opportunities [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the gross margins and expectations for the next few quarters? - Management indicated that the biggest impact on margin was due to the mix of projects delivering lots, and they expect gross margins to remain in the historical range of 21%-23% [18] Question: What are you seeing from your customers regarding pricing and takedown schedules? - Management noted a shift from large bulk takedowns to more structured quarterly takedowns, with no significant changes in pricing observed [21] Question: Is SG&A spend expected to remain stable? - Management confirmed that headcount is down slightly and expects SG&A to remain stable for the remainder of the year [22] Question: How does your inventory break out between entry-level and move-up homes? - Management stated that the strategy remains focused on entry-level homes, which is the largest market segment [25] Question: Are you looking to rebalance exposure in Texas and Florida? - Management is being selective in development activities in Texas and Florida due to higher resale inventory but believes in the long-term fundamentals of these markets [27] Question: How does pulling back on phased developments impact your cost structure? - Management indicated that there is no significant impact on cost structure, and pulling back helps reduce cycle times and development costs [28]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the first quarter reached $273 million, a 9% increase from $250.4 million in the prior year quarter [4][5] - Net income was $15.4 million or $0.30 per diluted share, compared to $16.5 million or $0.32 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [5] - Pre-tax income was $20.8 million, down from $21.9 million in the same quarter last year, with a pre-tax profit margin of 7.6% compared to 8.7% [5][6] - Book value per share increased 10% from a year ago to $35.10 [4][13] - The company ended the quarter with $820 million of liquidity, including $212 million in unrestricted cash [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 1,944 lots in the quarter with an average sales price of $121,000, influenced by a mix of lot deliveries from higher price point communities [4][5][6] - Gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.1%, down from 22% in the prior year quarter, but would have been approximately 21.5% excluding a low-margin tract sale [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for new homes is being impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, although mortgage rate buydown incentives are helping to spur demand [8] - The company’s total lot position was 101,000 lots, with 65% owned and 35% controlled through purchase contracts [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on turning inventory, maximizing returns, and consolidating market share in the lot development industry [5] - The strategic goal is to maintain a three- to four-year supply of land and lots while managing development phases to match market demand [10][12] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2026, subject to market conditions [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that home affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment will continue to be near-term headwinds for new home demand [15][16] - The company is confident in the long-term demand for finished lots and its ability to gain market share in the fragmented lot development industry [16] Other Important Information - The company’s capital structure is viewed as a competitive advantage, providing operational flexibility and strong liquidity to capitalize on opportunities [13][14] - The company’s underwriting criteria for new development projects remains unchanged, targeting a minimum 15% pre-tax return on average inventory [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on gross margins and future expectations - Management indicated that the gross margin was impacted by the mix of projects delivering lots, and they expect margins to remain in the historical range of 21%-23% [18] Question: Customer pricing pushback and market conditions - Management noted a shift from large bulk takedowns to structured quarterly takedowns, with no significant changes in pricing observed [21] Question: SG&A spending expectations - Management expects SG&A to remain stable, with headcount and labor costs being the primary components [22] Question: Inventory and market strategy in Texas and Florida - Management is being selective in development activities in Texas and Florida due to higher resale inventory but remains optimistic about long-term fundamentals in these markets [27] Question: Impact of phased developments on cost structure - Management stated that pulling back on phased developments does not significantly impact the cost structure and helps reduce cycle times [28]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q1 2026 were $273 million, a 9% increase from $250.4 million in the prior year quarter [4][5] - Net income was $15.4 million or $0.30 per diluted share, compared to $16.5 million or $0.32 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [5] - Book value per share increased 10% from a year ago to $35.10 [4][15] - Pre-tax income was $20.8 million, down from $21.9 million in the prior year quarter, with a pre-tax profit margin of 7.6% compared to 8.7% [5][6] - Gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.1%, down from 22% in the same quarter last year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 1,944 lots in the quarter with an average sales price of $121,000, influenced by a mix of higher price point lots [5][6] - SG&A expense was $36.5 million, or 13.4% of revenues, compared to $36 million or 14.4% in the prior year quarter [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for new homes is impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment, although mortgage rate buy-down incentives are helping to spur demand [9][10] - The company’s total lot position was 101,000 lots, with 65% owned and 35% controlled through purchase contracts [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on turning inventory, maximizing returns, and consolidating market share in the lot development industry [5] - The strategic goal is to maintain a three- to four-year supply of land and lots while managing development phases to match market demand [11][14] - The company plans to invest approximately $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development in fiscal 2026, subject to market conditions [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects home affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment to continue as near-term headwinds for new home demand [17] - The company maintains its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion and lot delivery guidance of 14,000 to 15,000 lots [17][18] - The company is confident in long-term demand for finished lots and its ability to gain market share in the lot development industry [18] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $820 million of liquidity, including $212 million in unrestricted cash [15] - Total debt was $793 million, with a net debt to capital ratio of 24.6% [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the gross margins and what they might look like over the next few quarters? - Management indicated that the biggest impact on margin was due to the mix of projects delivering lots, and they expect gross margins to remain in the historical range of 21%-23% [20][21] Question: What are you seeing from your customers regarding price pushback? - Management noted a shift from large bulk takedowns to more structured quarterly takedowns, with little change in pricing overall [22][23] Question: Is SG&A spend expected to remain stable? - Management confirmed that headcount is down slightly and expects SG&A to remain stable for the remainder of the year [24] Question: How is the inventory of developed lots breaking out between entry-level and move-up homes? - Management stated that the higher average sales prices were planned and that they remain focused on entry-level and first-time homebuyer markets [27][28] Question: Are you looking to rebalance exposure in Texas and Florida? - Management is being selective in development activities in Texas and Florida due to higher resale inventory but believes in the long-term fundamentals of these markets [29] Question: How does pulling back on phased developments impact your cost structure? - Management indicated that there is no significant impact on cost structure and that they continue to work with trade partners to reduce costs and cycle times [30]