Holcim(HCMLY)
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Holcim: YoY Energy Price Declines Helping EBIT
Seeking Alpha· 2024-08-13 17:04
Core Insights - Holcim AG has shown resilience in revenue developments, benefiting from falling electricity and freight costs, although concerns about cement supply over the next five years persist [1][6][8] - The company reported a 12.7% increase in recurring EBIT in local currency for H1 2024, driven by lower costs [5][6] - The overall market dynamics indicate a potential threat from increased cement production capacity in India and import dynamics from China, which could impact Holcim's market position [4][8] Financial Performance - The fully diluted earnings per share for Holcim AG were reported at 2.16 in H1 2024, reflecting a 1.6% growth in local currency [2] - EBIT performance for H1 2024 was recorded at 2,210 million CHF, up 8.1% compared to the previous year [5][6] - The cost of goods sold (COGS) has decreased significantly, contributing to the solid EBIT performance, with electricity and fuel costs accounting for 30-40% of COGS and freight around 20-30% [6][7] Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on value and cost efficiency amidst soft volume trends in most markets, except for Asia and the Middle East [4] - Significant capacity increases in India are expected to boost global cement production by 25% over the next six years, posing a competitive threat to Holcim [4][8] - The cyclicality and commodified nature of the cement business raise concerns about the durability of the current decrease in energy prices and potential supply chain disruptions [8] Competitive Landscape - Holcim's forward P/E ratio is around 13x, which is higher compared to competitors like Heidelberg Materials AG at above 8x, raising questions about its value proposition in the market [8] - The focus on reducing emissions and costs among producers in major markets like Europe and North America may limit growth opportunities for Holcim [8]
All You Need to Know About Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) Rating Upgrade to Strong Buy
ZACKS· 2024-07-31 17:01
Core Viewpoint - Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Ratings - The Zacks rating system is based solely on a company's changing earnings picture, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate tracking EPS estimates from sell-side analysts [2]. - The upgrade reflects an improvement in Holcim's earnings outlook, which could lead to increased buying pressure and a rise in stock price [4][6]. Impact of Earnings Estimates on Stock Prices - Changes in future earnings potential, as shown by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, influenced by institutional investors [5]. - Rising earnings estimates and the subsequent rating upgrade suggest an improvement in Holcim's underlying business, encouraging investors to push the stock higher [6]. Importance of Earnings Estimate Revisions - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements, making tracking these revisions beneficial for investment decisions [7]. - The Zacks Rank system effectively utilizes earnings estimate revisions to classify stocks, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. Specific Earnings Estimates for Holcim - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Holcim is expected to earn $1.34 per share, reflecting a 10.7% increase from the previous year [9]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Holcim has increased by 2.3%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [9]. Zacks Rating System Overview - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings across its universe of over 4000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a 'Strong Buy' rating [10]. - Holcim's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [11].
HCMLY vs. AWI: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
ZACKS· 2024-07-31 16:46
Core Viewpoint - Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) is currently viewed as a better value opportunity compared to Armstrong World Industries (AWI) based on various financial metrics and rankings [1][7]. Valuation Metrics - HCMLY has a forward P/E ratio of 13.88, significantly lower than AWI's forward P/E of 22.43 [5]. - The PEG ratio for HCMLY is 1.89, while AWI's PEG ratio is slightly higher at 1.99, indicating a more favorable valuation for HCMLY when considering expected earnings growth [5]. - HCMLY's P/B ratio stands at 1.80, compared to AWI's much higher P/B of 8.65, further suggesting that HCMLY is undervalued relative to its book value [6]. Zacks Rank and Earnings Outlook - HCMLY holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while AWI has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. - The stronger estimate revision activity for HCMLY suggests an improving earnings outlook, making it more attractive for value investors [7]. Value Grades - HCMLY has been assigned a Value grade of B, whereas AWI has a Value grade of C, reflecting the relative attractiveness of their valuations [6].
Holcim(HCMLY) - 2024 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-07-26 19:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record EBIT growth of 12.7% in local currency and 8.1% in Swiss francs, with net sales growth of 1.6% and a recurring EBIT margin of 23.2% [3][4][15] - Earnings per share increased by 10%, and the EBIT margin guidance for the full year was upgraded from 18% to above 18.5% [4][29] - The company reported a free cash flow of CHF 48 million, consistent with previous years, and a slight decrease in net debt to CHF 10.9 billion [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Solutions & Products segment saw strong growth, particularly in roofing systems, with a significant increase in net sales and recurring EBIT [22][34] - The company completed 11 acquisitions and four divestments in H1, focusing on construction and demolition material recycling and expanding its footprint in aggregates and ready-mix [7][29] - The ECOPact low-carbon concrete accounted for 28% of total sales in ready-mix, while ECOPlanet low-carbon cement reached 26% of total cement sales [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America experienced a margin expansion of 240 basis points to 19.4%, despite some short-term volume softness due to weather [18] - Latin America achieved a recurring EBIT of 35.6%, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of profitable growth [19] - Europe reported a recurring EBIT margin expansion of 240 basis points to over 16%, driven by acquisitions in aggregates and recycling solutions [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling up sustainable building solutions and investing in decarbonization and circularity as key growth drivers [6][8] - The M&A strategy targets attractive markets and segments, with a commitment to increasing construction and demolition material recycling to 10 million tonnes this year, a 20% increase from last year [29][39] - The company is progressing towards a U.S. listing planned for H1 next year [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation above CHF 3 billion for H2 [29] - The company remains optimistic about the fundamentals in the construction market, despite some weather-related challenges [41][42] - Management emphasized the importance of sustainable building solutions and the potential for pricing power in selective markets [33][43] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant reduction in CO2 emissions per net sales by 7% and published its third climate report [8] - The share buyback program is on track, with CHF 516 million worth of shares repurchased so far [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about Solutions & Products and growth expectations? - Management noted that pricing is resilient and expects accelerated growth in roofing in the U.S. and Europe in H2 [34][35] Question: What are the revenue and margin opportunities for demolition materials? - Management confirmed that margins on recycled materials are currently higher than 15% and emphasized the profitability of upcycling [39][40] Question: Are you disappointed by underlying volume trends? - Management clarified that they are not losing market share and remain focused on sustainable building solutions [42] Question: What is the outlook for CapEx and U.S. sales? - Management indicated a slight increase in CapEx for growth projects and expressed confidence in recovering U.S. sales in H2 [50][52] Question: Can you provide insights on margin expansion drivers? - Management attributed margin expansion to pricing power, lower cost inflation pressures, and operational efficiency [55][58] Question: What is the outlook for residential demand in Europe? - Management acknowledged softer residential markets but highlighted strong infrastructure project pipelines [82]
HCMLY or AWI: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
ZACKS· 2024-06-24 16:45
Core Viewpoint - Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) and Armstrong World Industries (AWI) both have a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive earnings estimate revisions and an improving earnings outlook for both companies [1] Valuation Metrics - HCMLY has a P/B ratio of 1.67, while AWI has a significantly higher P/B ratio of 8 [2] - The forward P/E ratio for HCMLY is 13.39, compared to AWI's forward P/E of 19.45. HCMLY also has a PEG ratio of 1.68, while AWI's PEG ratio is 1.73 [4] - Based on various valuation metrics, HCMLY holds a Value grade of B, whereas AWI has a Value grade of C [6] Investment Analysis - The Value category of the Style Scores system identifies undervalued companies using key metrics such as P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share [8] - Both HCMLY and AWI are recognized as strong stocks with solid earnings outlooks, but HCMLY is currently viewed as the superior value option based on valuation figures [9]
HCMLY or JHX: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-04-29 16:45
Investors with an interest in Building Products - Miscellaneous stocks have likely encountered both Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) and James Hardie (JHX) . But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.We have found that the best way to discover great value opportunities is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with a great grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The proven Zacks Rank puts an emphasis on earnings estimates an ...
Holcim(HCMLY) - 2024 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-04-26 20:22
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported over 3% growth in local currency for Q1 2024, with an EBIT growth of more than 17% in local currency and 7.8% in Swiss Francs, indicating strong margins and a positive outlook for the year [4][5][15] - The EBIT margin increased by 0.9 percentage points in Q1, supporting the guidance for an 18% EBIT margin for the full year [8][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Solutions & Products saw roofing sales increase by 67% in Q1, with a significant contribution from the acquisition of Duro-Last and organic growth of 38% [6][22] - The overall performance in Solutions & Products showed a profitable growth with margin expansion of 2 percentage points [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America experienced strong underlying demand despite adverse weather and fewer trading days, with expectations for a strong performance in 2024 [19] - Latin America achieved record Q1 net sales and recurring EBIT with a strong margin of about 36%, driven by near-shoring trends and a robust pipeline of infrastructure projects [20] - Europe reported a record Q1 recurring EBIT margin expansion of almost 1.5 percentage points, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of margin expansion [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on M&A as a growth driver, having completed five acquisitions in Q1 2024 and a total of 28 in 2023, while also closing four divestments [7][26] - Sustainability initiatives are emphasized, with low-carbon solutions like ECOPact and ECOPlanet increasing from 16% to 26% of respective sales [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving over 4% organic net sales growth and an additional 2% from M&A for 2024, with a target of over CHF 3 billion in free cash flow [27] - The company is optimistic about the recovery in roofing and solutions, expecting continued strong demand and growth in the coming months [55] Other Important Information - The company has returned over CHF 11 billion to shareholders since 2018 and plans to increase dividends by 12% to CHF 2.8 [24] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade rating while executing share buybacks from cash on the balance sheet [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify the price cost benefit in Q1 and its evolution through 2024? - Management indicated that energy costs are down mid to high single digits, contributing positively to margins, and expects continued normalization in other cost items [31] Question: What is the M&A pipeline looking like? - The company has a healthy pipeline with a focus on bolt-on acquisitions, expecting many more transactions to come [30] Question: Can you provide insights on pricing and volume developments? - Management noted that margin development is now more focused on value-added systems rather than volume, with expectations for continued pricing improvement throughout the year [33][34] Question: How did Asia and Africa perform in Q1? - Asia faced challenges, particularly in China, but overall performance in Africa and the Middle East was strong, with sustainable growth expected [51] Question: What is the outlook for the European construction cycle? - Management expects a good second half of the year driven by infrastructure projects, despite a softer first half mainly in the residential sector [61]
Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-04-15 17:01
Investors might want to bet on Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.The ...
Are Construction Stocks Lagging Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) This Year?
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-04-02 14:46
The Construction group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. Is Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR (HCMLY) one of those stocks right now? By taking a look at the stock's year-to-date performance in comparison to its Construction peers, we might be able to answer that question.Holcim Ltd Unsponsored ADR is one of 96 companies in the Construction group. The Construction group currently sits at #2 within the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sec ...
Holcim(HCMLY) - 2023 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-03-01 17:20
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported its full-year results for 2023, indicating significant developments in its financial performance [1][3]. - Specific financial metrics and year-over-year changes were not detailed in the provided content [1]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company highlighted its innovative product, ECOPlanet/Susteno, which incorporates 20% construction and demolition materials, showcasing a new growth path [4]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific market data or key metrics changes were provided in the content [1]. Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The introduction of ECOPlanet/Susteno reflects the company's commitment to sustainability and innovation in the construction materials sector [4]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the company's growth trajectory and the innovative use of recycled materials in their products [4]. Other Important Information - The conference was hosted by the CEO and included participation from key executives, indicating a strong leadership presence [1][2]. Q&A Session Summary - No specific questions or answers from the Q&A session were provided in the content [1].