Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Heartland Express despite lower revenues, with the actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Heartland Express is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.13 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +31.6% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $241.65 million, down 10.6% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 20% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Heartland Express aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive [7][8]. - Heartland Express currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Heartland Express was expected to post a loss of $0.04 per share but delivered a loss of $0.02, resulting in a surprise of +50% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Industry Comparison - Marten Transport, another player in the trucking and logistics sector, is expected to report earnings of $0.05 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of -58.3% [17]. - Marten Transport's revenues are anticipated to be $229 million, down 8.3% from the previous year [17].

Industry Overview - The trucking industry has been experiencing a downcycle for three years, but there are signs of stabilization in freight rates, which could lead to a potential upside for the industry [1] - Heartland Express is expected to benefit significantly from its integration efforts, which may enhance its equity price [1] Company Insights - Heartland Express's equity price is anticipated to be "turbocharged" due to its strategic integration initiatives [1]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated operating revenues of $1.0 billion, a decrease from $1.2 billion in 2023, with a net loss of $29.7 million compared to a net income of $14.8 million in the previous year[190]. - The operating ratio for 2024 was 101.9%, significantly higher than 96.5% in 2023, indicating increased operating expenses relative to revenues[190]. - Operating income was negative at (1.9%) for 2024, compared to a positive 3.5% in 2023[202]. - Operating revenue decreased by $160.0 million (13.2%) to $1.0 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024, from $1.2 billion in 2023, primarily due to a weak freight environment[203]. - Cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was $144.3 million, representing 13.8% of operating revenues, compared to $165.3 million or 13.7% in 2023[192]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was $144.3 million, a decrease of $21.0 million compared to $165.3 million in 2023, primarily due to a $41.2 million decrease in net income[231]. Expenses and Cost Management - Fuel expenses decreased by $35.0 million (16.5%) to $177.2 million in 2024, driven by a 10.8% decrease in average diesel prices per gallon[208]. - Salaries, wages, and benefits decreased by $47.1 million (9.9%) to $427.7 million in 2024, reflecting lower company miles and a reduction in office and shop employees[206]. - Depreciation and amortization decreased by $17.5 million (8.8%) to $181.5 million in 2024, attributed to ongoing fleet replacement strategies[209]. - Insurance and claims expense increased by $5.6 million (12.3%) to $50.9 million in 2024, due to unfavorable claim severity and frequency[212]. - Significant inflation has impacted operating expenses, particularly in driver compensation and equipment costs, with the average age of revenue equipment being in the top tier of the industry[217]. Debt and Financing - The company repaid almost $300 million of debt and capitalized leases since acquiring CFI and Smith Transport in 2022, while maintaining a relatively young fleet[188]. - The company had $184.0 million outstanding on the Term Facility and no outstanding borrowings under the Revolving Facility as of December 31, 2024[227]. - The weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings under the Credit Facilities was 6.0% as of December 31, 2024[227]. - Interest expense decreased by $6.6 million (27.3%) to $17.6 million in 2024, reflecting debt repayments made during the year[215]. - A 1.0% increase in the SOFR rate would result in an additional $1.8 million in annual interest expense based on current variable rate debt[249]. Investments and Acquisitions - The company has made ten acquisitions since 1986, with the most recent being CFI on August 31, 2022, aimed at expanding service offerings and market reach[195]. - The company entered into a $550.0 million unsecured credit facility, including a $100.0 million revolving line of credit and $450.0 million in term loans, to support business growth[219]. - The company anticipates net capital expenditures for revenue equipment and terminal properties in 2025 to be between $55.0 million to $65.0 million[232]. - Cash flows used in investing activities decreased to $46.5 million in 2024 from $67.9 million in 2023, mainly due to $24.7 million less net cash used for property and equipment[232]. Operational Strategy - The company aims to achieve an operating ratio in the low to mid 80s and to grow revenue profitably through both organic growth and acquisitions[186]. - The driver compensation and benefits program has been enhanced to attract and retain qualified drivers, resulting in lower turnover rates compared to industry averages[194]. - Over 96% of total miles are driven by company drivers operating revenue equipment, with tractors and trailers having estimated useful lives of 5 and 7 years respectively[242]. Tax and Valuation - The effective tax rate decreased to 19.0% in 2024 from 25.6% in 2023, primarily due to permanent differences reducing the rate[216]. - The company has not recorded a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, believing it is more likely than not that remaining deferred tax assets will be utilized[245]. - Goodwill from acquisitions is subject to impairment testing and is influenced by the valuation estimates of other acquired long-lived assets[244]. Risk Management - The company does not currently use derivative financial instruments for risk management, although it has in the past for fuel price risk management[248]. - Management estimates accruals for self-insured auto liability and workers' compensation claims based on historical development trends and individual case evaluations[243].

Financial Performance - Operating revenue for Q4 2024 was $242.6 million, a decrease from $275.3 million in Q4 2023, representing a decline of 11.9%[5] - Net loss for Q4 2024 was $1.9 million, compared to a net income of $5.1 million in Q4 2023, resulting in a basic loss per share of $0.02[5] - For the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2024, operating revenues were $1.0 billion, down 13.2% from $1.2 billion in 2023[6] - Adjusted operating income for Q4 2024 was $2.276 million, down from $11.967 million in Q4 2023, indicating a decrease of 81.0%[21] - Total operating expenses for Q4 2024 were $241.554 million, down 8.7% from $264.642 million in Q4 2023[18] - Operating ratio for Q4 2024 was 99.6%, up from 96.1% in Q4 2023, reflecting increased operational inefficiencies[21] Assets and Equity - Total assets at December 31, 2024, were $1.3 billion, with stockholders' equity of $822.6 million[8] - Total current assets fell to $129.448 million in Q4 2024, down 23.5% from $169.272 million in Q4 2023[20] - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $822.599 million in Q4 2024 from $865.260 million in Q4 2023, a decline of 4.9%[20] - Long-term debt decreased to $191.707 million in Q4 2024 from $290.696 million in Q4 2023, a reduction of 34.1%[20] Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash flow margin for Q4 2024 was 15.6%, with net cash flows from operations for the twelve-month period at $144.3 million, representing 13.8% of operating revenues[9] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $12.812 million in Q4 2024 from $28.123 million in Q4 2023, a decline of 54.4%[20] - Regular dividends of $0.02 per share were declared during each quarter of 2024, contributing to cumulative cash dividends of $555.2 million since 2003[11] - The company declared dividends of $0.02 per share for both Q4 2024 and Q4 2023, maintaining consistency[18] Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a consolidated operating ratio of 99.6% in Q4 2024, an improvement of 570 basis points from Q1 2024[2] - The company continues to focus on cost improvements and operational integrations, anticipating a favorable increase in overall freight demand[4] - The average age of the tractor fleet was 2.5 years as of December 31, 2024, compared to 2.2 years at the end of 2023[10] Debt Management - The company paid down $100.3 million in debt during 2024, totaling $295.9 million since acquisitions in 2022[3]

Group 1 - Heartland Express reported revenue of $242.58 million for the quarter ended December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 11.9% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was -$0.02, compared to $0.06 a year ago, indicating a significant drop in profitability [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $254.84 million, resulting in a surprise of -4.81% [1] Group 2 - Heartland Express delivered an EPS surprise of +50.00%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.04 [1] - The operating ratio for the company was reported at 99.6%, which is better than the average estimate of 101.4% based on two analysts [4] - Fuel surcharge revenue was $28 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $33.20 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 29.5% [4] Group 3 - Operating revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, was $214.58 million, compared to the average estimate of $221.65 million, marking a year-over-year change of -8.9% [4] - Over the past month, shares of Heartland Express have returned +6.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Company Performance - Heartland Express reported a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.04, and compared to earnings of $0.06 per share a year ago, indicating a 50% earnings surprise [1] - The company posted revenues of $242.58 million for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.81%, and down from $275.35 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Heartland Express has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once and has topped consensus revenue estimates just once [2] Stock Outlook - Heartland Express shares have increased approximately 5.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 2.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is -$0.06 on revenues of $242.69 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.17 on revenues of $1.1 billion [7] Industry Context - The Transportation - Truck industry, to which Heartland Express belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact Heartland Express's stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Heartland Express reported operating revenue of $242.6 million for Q4 2024, down from $275.3 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a decrease of 11.5% [4][5] - For the full year 2024, operating revenue was $1.0 billion, a decline of 13.2% compared to $1.2 billion in 2023 [5] - The company experienced a net loss of $1.9 million in Q4 2024, compared to a net income of $5.1 million in Q4 2023, resulting in a basic loss per share of $0.02 [2][4] - For the twelve-month period, the net loss was $29.7 million, compared to a net income of $14.8 million in 2023, with a basic loss per share of $0.38 [5] Operating Ratios - The operating ratio for Q4 2024 was reported at 99.6%, compared to 96.1% in Q4 2023, indicating a deterioration in operational efficiency [4][5] - The non-GAAP adjusted operating ratio for Q4 2024 was 98.9%, compared to 94.9% in the same quarter of the previous year [4][5] - For the full year 2024, the operating ratio was 101.9%, significantly worse than the 96.5% reported in 2023 [5] Debt Management - The company paid down $100.3 million in debt during 2024, with total debt and financing lease obligations at $200.7 million as of December 31, 2024 [6][3] - Since the acquisitions in 2022, Heartland Express has repaid nearly $300 million in debt and capitalized leases [3] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash flows from operations for the twelve-month period ended December 31, 2024, were $144.3 million, representing 13.8% of operating revenues [7] - The company ended the year with $12.8 million in cash, a decrease of $15.3 million from the previous year [6] Fleet and Assets - The average age of the tractor fleet was 2.5 years as of December 31, 2024, compared to 2.2 years in 2023, while the trailer fleet's average age increased to 7.4 years from 6.4 years [8] Shareholder Returns - Heartland Express declared regular dividends of $0.02 per share during each quarter of 2024, maintaining a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [9]

Core Viewpoint - Heartland Express (HTLD) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a consensus outlook indicating a quarterly loss of $0.04 per share, representing a -166.7% change from the previous year, and revenues projected at $254.84 million, down 7.5% from the same quarter last year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report could lead to a stock price increase if the results exceed expectations, while missing estimates may result in a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 50% lower in the last 30 days, reflecting a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Heartland Express is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +25%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. Historical Performance - Heartland Express has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once in the last four quarters, with a significant miss of -500% in the last reported quarter [12][13]. Conclusion - While Heartland Express shows potential as an earnings-beat candidate, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Investors in Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Dec 20, 2024 $5 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.What is Implied Volatility?Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could a ...

Heartland Express (HTLD) reported $259.86 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2024, representing a year-over-year decline of 11.9%. EPS of -$0.12 for the same period compares to -$0.14 a year ago. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $269.04 million, representing a surprise of -3.41%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of -500.00%, with the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.02. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue an ...