Company Overview - J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) is currently facing multiple headwinds, making it an unimpressive investment option [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-quarter earnings has decreased by 23.1% over the past 60 days, while the estimate for the current year has been revised downward by 14.5% in the same timeframe, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [2] - JBHT has a discouraging earnings surprise history, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average miss of 8.37% [4] Stock Performance - JBHT's shares have declined by 16.3% over the past year, compared to a 25.6% loss in the industry [3] Industry Ranking - The trucking industry, which includes JBHT, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 200 out of 250, placing it in the bottom 19% of Zacks industries [5] Financial Health - JBHT's cash and cash equivalents stood at $46.98 million at the end of Q4 2024, significantly lower than its short-term debt of $500 million, indicating insufficient cash to meet debt obligations [6] Operational Challenges - The trucking industry is facing a persistent driver shortage, complicating recruitment as older drivers retire and younger generations show less interest in the profession [7][9]

Earnings and Revenue Performance - JBHT reported Q4 2024 EPS of $1.53, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62, resulting in a 7% stock decline since Jan 16 [3] - Total operating revenues of $3.15 billion narrowly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion but declined 4.8% YoY [4] - The bottom line increased 4.1% YoY, while total operating income rose 2% YoY to $207 million [3][4] Segmental Performance - Q4 2024 operating revenues excluding fuel surcharge revenue decreased 2% YoY to $2.78 billion [5] - Revenue per load declined 3% in Intermodal (JBI) and 2% in Truckload (JBT) [5] - Average trucks in Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) decreased 4%, and load volume in Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) dropped 22% [5] Financial Position and Interest Expenses - JBHT's cash and cash equivalents stood at $46.98 million at the end of Q4 2024, significantly lower than the short-term debt of $500 million [7] - Net interest expense increased 23.9% YoY in 2024 due to higher effective interest rates and consolidated debt balance [6] Earnings Estimates and Price Performance - Earnings estimates for JBHT have been revised downward across all periods, with current Q1 2025 EPS estimate at $1.34, down from $1.56 90 days ago [10] - JBHT's stock has underperformed both its industry and the S&P 500 over the past six months [10][11] Industry Comparison - JBHT's price performance compares unfavorably with industry players like Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX) over the past six months [11]

Earnings Performance - Fourth-quarter EPS of $1.53 missed the consensus estimate of $1.63, while sales of $3.15 billion were in line with expectations [1] - Operating revenue fell 5% year over year to $3.15 billion due to declines in revenue per load in Intermodal and Truckload segments, a reduction in average trucks in Dedicated Contract Services, and a 22% decrease in load volume in Integrated Capacity Solutions [2] - An unexpected $16 million intangible impairment charge, translating to about $0.10 per share, was noted [3] Analyst Adjustments and Ratings - Wells Fargo cut the price target on the stock from $200 to $190 [1] - JP Morgan reduced the price forecast to $200 from $205 while reiterating an Overweight rating [2] - Evercore ISI Group trimmed the price forecast to $202 from $207, reaffirming an Outperform rating [3] - Stifel analyst J Bruce Chan raised the price forecast to $174 from $161 while maintaining a Hold rating [3] Segment Performance and Outlook - Intermodal ended 2024 with record volumes, but residual contract pricing from earlier in the year weighed on revenue, expected to remain a headwind until the third quarter of FY25 [4] - The Dedicated segment continues to experience fleet contraction, likely persisting into the second quarter of FY25 [4] - Management guided first-quarter FY25 margins lower, projecting a 20% – 25% sequential decline in operating income [5] Revised EPS Estimates - First-quarter EPS estimates were lowered from $1.46 to $1.15, 2025 from $7.00 to $6.55, and a 2026 EPS estimate of $8.10 was set [5] Analyst Commentary - Benchmark analyst Christopher Kuhn noted that excluding an impairment charge in ICS from the BNSF acquisition, fourth-quarter EPS of $1.66 exceeded expectations due to slightly better operating income than expected, but first-quarter guidance is a disappointment [6] - The diversified model and secular growth in Intermodal and Dedicated could support long-term EPS growth, but patience may wane as estimates are revised down and mid-cycle earnings continue to get pushed out [7] Investment Exposure - Investors can gain exposure to the stock via ProShares Trust ProShares Supply Chain Logistics ETF SUPL and SPDR S&P Transportation ETF XTN [7] Stock Performance - JBHT shares are down 6.24% at $174.58 at the last check Friday [7]

Key TakeawaysJ.B. Hunt Transport Services missed fourth-quarter revenue and profit forecasts as volumes slumped.All of the big shipping firm's segments reported a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter.CEO Shelley Simpson said the freight industry continues to face a "challenging" environment. Shares of J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) tumbled 7% Friday, a day after the big shipping firm reported a drop in sales as volumes fell. The company reported fourth-quarter revenue tumbled 5% year-over-year to $ ...

Earnings Performance - J B Hunt Transport Services reported Q4 2024 EPS of $1 53, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1 62, leading to a double-digit stock decline in aftermarket trading [1] - The bottom line increased 4 1% year-over-year [1] - Total operating revenues of $3 15 billion narrowly beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3 13 billion but declined 4 8% year-over-year due to lower fuel surcharge revenues and yield pressure in the Intermodal segment [2] - Total operating income increased 2% year-over-year to $207 million [2] Segment Performance Intermodal Division - Generated quarterly revenues of $1 6 billion, down 2% year-over-year, slightly above the estimate of $1 57 billion [3] - Intermodal volume increased 5% year-over-year, with transcontinental network loads up 4% and eastern network loads up 6% [3] - Operating income decreased 10% year-over-year due to lower yields [3] Dedicated Contract Services - Revenues fell 5% year-over-year to $839 million, below the estimate of $850 5 million, driven by a 4% decline in average trucks and a 1% reduction in productivity [4] - Productivity, excluding fuel surcharge revenues, increased 2% year-over-year due to contracted indexed-based price escalators [4] - Segmental operating income increased 5% year-over-year [4] Integrated Capacity Solutions - Revenues decreased 15% year-over-year to $308 million, slightly above the estimate of $305 5 million [5] - Segmental volumes decreased 22% year-over-year, while revenue per load increased 9% year-over-year due to higher contractual and transactional rates and changes in customer freight mix [5] - Segmental operating loss was $21 8 million, an improvement from the $24 9 million loss in Q4 2023 [6] - ICS carrier base decreased 10% year-over-year due to changes in carrier qualification requirements [6] Truckload - Revenues fell 7% year-over-year to $182 million, below the estimate of $195 3 million [6] - Excluding fuel surcharge revenues, segmental revenues fell 3% due to flat load volume and a 2% decline in gross revenue per load [6] - Segmental operating income increased to $8 6 million from a modest operating loss in Q4 2023 [7] Final Mile Services - Revenues fell 6% year-over-year to $228 million, below the estimate of $240 3 million, due to weak demand across end markets [8] - Operating income increased 7% year-over-year despite higher purchased transportation and insurance-related costs [8] Liquidity and Share Buybacks - J B Hunt ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $47 million, down from $53 3 million at the end of 2023 [9] - Long-term debt decreased to $977 7 million from $1 33 billion at the end of 2023 [9] - In Q4 2024, the company repurchased approximately 489,000 shares for $86 million, with $882 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of Dec 31, 2024 [9] Zacks Rank and Peer Comparison - J B Hunt currently carries a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [11] - Investors may consider Alaska Air Group (ALK), which sports a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and has delivered an average earnings beat of 23 2% over the past four quarters, with shares surging 99% in the past year [12] - C H Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) carries a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), with a 1 3% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings and an average earnings beat of 10 3% over the past four quarters, with shares rising 21% in the past year [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, consolidated revenue declined by 5% year-over-year, operating income increased by 2%, and diluted earnings per share rose by 4% [17] - For the full year 2024, consolidated revenue decreased by 6%, operating income fell by 16%, and diluted EPS dropped by 20% [19] - The company faced insurance-related charges of $53.4 million in Q4 2023 and intangible asset impairment charges of $16 million in Q4 2024, impacting overall financial performance [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Intermodal business experienced a record peak season with total volume up 5% year-over-year, setting a new quarterly record for Intermodal volume [55] - The dedicated business showed resilience with strong visibility for future growth, while the brokerage business is still under progress [12][39] - The Final Mile business faced muted demand for big and bulky products, particularly in furniture and appliances [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The freight environment remains challenging, with inflationary cost pressures expected to continue, particularly in insurance premiums and labor costs [20] - Despite the challenging market, the company is positioned to leverage its capacity and service levels to capture new customers [14][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and scaling investments to drive long-term growth and improve returns on capital [10] - Strategic investments include acquiring Intermodal assets from Walmart, which are expected to enhance future earnings potential [10] - The company aims to repair and improve financial performance while maintaining a focus on long-term value creation for shareholders [11][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to leverage its brand and service execution to improve margins and returns on capital [11] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery from the freight recession, with a focus on growing and repairing margins in 2025 [13][61] - Management highlighted the importance of customer relationships and the need to ensure appropriate pricing for services provided [31][85] Other Important Information - The capital expenditure plan for 2025 is projected to be between $700 million and $900 million, reflecting growth and replacement needs [24] - The company plans to continue supporting its dividend, which has increased for 20 consecutive years, and will opportunistically repurchase stock [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on first quarter commentary regarding sequential decline in operating profit - Management confirmed that the sequential decline in operating income is expected across the entire business, consistent with normal seasonality [70] Question: Discussion on CapEx commentary and underlying assumptions - The CapEx range for 2025 is influenced by replacement needs and growth in dedicated sales, with a significant portion allocated for power replacement [76] Question: Steps to improve returns on capital and margins without market recovery - Management emphasized focusing on cost control, balancing network loads, and engaging customers to communicate value [81][85] Question: Guidance on Dedicated business performance and growth expectations - Management acknowledged known losses but expressed confidence in returning to net fleet growth and improving retention rates [90][92] Question: Insights on Intermodal volumes and future growth potential - Management highlighted opportunities for volume growth, particularly in the Eastern network, as the truck market shifts [139]

Market Performance - Major indexes took a breather after yesterday's significant gains, with the Dow down -0.16%, the S&P 500 down -0.12%, and the Nasdaq down -0.89% [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 was the only index to gain, up +0.40% [1] Economic Indicators - Weekly Jobless Claims and Retail Sales remained tame, while Imports and Exports saw a slight increase [2] - The Philly Fed manufacturing index showed its first significant improvement in over three years [2] - Business Inventories for November increased by +0.1%, in line with expectations [3] - The Homebuilder Confidence Index for January came in at 47, the highest since April of last year [3] Bond Yields - The 10-year yield cooled to +4.615%, down from +4.763% on Tuesday, the highest in 15 months [4] - The 2-year yield settled at +4.238%, between September's +3.548% and last April's +5.046% [4] Company Performance - J B Hunt missed Q4 earnings estimates by $0 10, reporting $1 53 per share, despite revenues meeting the $3 15 billion consensus [5] - The company's Intermodal business improvements were offset by declines in Revenue per Load and Dedicated Services [5] - Shares of J B Hunt dropped by -1% in late trading [5] Upcoming Economic Data - Housing Starts and Building Permits for December are expected to show modest gains and slight declines, respectively [7] - Industrial Production is expected to swing to +0 2% from -0 1%, while Capacity Utilization is expected to rise to +77 0% from +76 8% [8]

For the quarter ended December 2024, JB Hunt (JBHT) reported revenue of $3.15 billion, down 4.8% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $1.53, compared to $1.47 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.54% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.13 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $1.62, the EPS surprise was -5.56%.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street expectations to determine their ...

Earnings Performance - JB Hunt reported quarterly earnings of $1 53 per share missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1 62 per share representing a -5 56% earnings surprise [1] - The company's earnings of $1 53 per share increased from $1 47 per share a year ago [1] - In the previous quarter JB Hunt delivered a positive earnings surprise of 4 93% with actual earnings of $1 49 per share against an estimate of $1 42 per share [1] - Over the last four quarters the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once [2] Revenue Performance - JB Hunt posted revenues of $3 15 billion for the quarter ended December 2024 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0 54% [2] - This revenue figure represents a decline from the year-ago revenues of $3 3 billion [2] - The company has topped consensus revenue estimates twice over the last four quarters [2] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - JB Hunt shares have gained approximately 9 3% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 1 2% [3] - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call [3] Earnings Outlook and Estimate Revisions - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1 41 on $3 01 billion in revenues [7] - For the current fiscal year the consensus EPS estimate is $7 21 on $12 78 billion in revenues [7] - Ahead of the earnings release the estimate revisions trend for JB Hunt was unfavorable resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) indicating potential underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - JB Hunt belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry which is currently in the bottom 16% of the 250 plus Zacks industries [8] - The top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1 [8] Peer Comparison - Heartland Express (HTLD) another company in the same industry is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0 04 per share for the quarter ended December 2024 representing a year-over-year change of -166 7% [9] - The consensus EPS estimate for Heartland Express has been revised 50% lower over the last 30 days [9] - Heartland Express' revenues are expected to be $254 84 million down 7 5% from the year-ago quarter [9]

Financial Performance - J B Hunt's Q4 2024 revenue was $315 billion, a 5% decrease compared to Q4 2023[8] - Excluding fuel surcharge, Q4 2024 revenue was $278 billion, down 2%[8] - Operating income for Q4 2024 increased by 2% to $2070 million[8] - Diluted EPS for Q4 2024 rose by 4% to $153, compared to $147 in Q4 2023[8] Segment Performance - Intermodal (JBI) revenue decreased by 2% to $160 billion, with operating income down 10% to $1170 million[8] - Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) revenue decreased by 5% to $839 million, but operating income increased by 5% to $903 million[8] - Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) revenue decreased by 15% to $308 million, with an operating loss of $218 million, an improvement from the $249 million loss in Q4 2023[8] - Final Mile Services (FMS) revenue decreased by 6% to $228 million, while operating income increased by 7% to $132 million[9] - Truckload (JBT) revenue decreased by 7% to $182 million, but operating income improved to $86 million from a loss of $39 thousand in Q4 2023[9] Intermodal (JBI) Analysis - Intermodal volume increased by 5% compared to the same period in 2023[18] - Revenue per load decreased by 6%, primarily due to changes in freight mix, customer rates, and fuel surcharge revenue[18] Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) Analysis - DCS revenue decreased by 5%, driven by a 4% decline in average trucks and a 1% decline in productivity[29] - Customer retention rates are approximately 90%, reflecting downsizing of fleets and account losses[29] Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) Analysis - ICS revenue decreased by 15%, with overall segment volume down 22%[39] - Revenue per load increased by 9% due to higher contractual and transactional rates and changes in customer freight mix[39] - Contractual volume represented approximately 63% of the total load volume and 63% of the total revenue[39] Final Mile Services (FMS) Analysis - FMS revenue declined 6%, primarily driven by general weakness in demand across many of the end markets served[50]