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Company Overview - Kroger is based in Cincinnati and operates in the Retail-Wholesale sector, with a year-to-date share price change of 4.3% [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.32 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.01%, which is higher than the Retail - Supermarkets industry's yield of 1.82% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.59% [3] Dividend Performance - Kroger's annualized dividend of $1.28 has increased by 4.9% from the previous year [4] - Over the past five years, Kroger has raised its dividend five times, achieving an average annual increase of 16.66% [4] - The current payout ratio is 27%, indicating that Kroger pays out 27% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kroger's earnings per share for 2025 is $4.77, reflecting a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 6.71% [5] Investment Considerations - Kroger is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Company Overview - The Kroger Co. operates in the thin-margin grocery industry and is undergoing a significant transformation in product offerings and shopping preferences [12] - The company is focusing on plant-based products and technological expansion, including the acquisition of meal kit company Home Chef and a partnership with British online grocery delivery firm Ocado [12] - Kroger has introduced grocery delivery service Kroger Ship and has partnered with driverless car company Nuro to enhance its online ordering and home delivery capabilities [12] Investment Metrics - Kroger is currently rated 3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B, indicating a solid investment potential [13] - The company has a Value Style Score of B, supported by attractive valuation metrics such as a forward P/E ratio of 13.38, which may appeal to value investors [13] - In the last 60 days, four analysts have revised their earnings estimates higher for fiscal 2026, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by $0.01 to $4.77 per share [13] - Kroger has an average earnings surprise of 2.6%, suggesting a positive trend in earnings performance [13] Conclusion - With a solid Zacks Rank and strong Value and VGM Style Scores, Kroger is positioned as a noteworthy option for investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - Kroger Co reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, leading to a rise in its share price amid a positive earnings season [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Insights - BMO Capital Markets maintained a Market Perform rating with a price target of $63, noting a 2% decline in earnings excluding an extra week, but expects slight volume improvement through 2025 [2] - Telsey Advisory Group reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target of $73, highlighting adjusted earnings of $1.14 per share, which exceeded estimates of $1.11 per share, and reported ID sales growth of 2.4% [4] - Management guided for 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.60-$4.80 per share, slightly below the consensus of $4.82 per share, while emphasizing effective execution through fresh and own brand assortments, loyalty programs, and digital capabilities [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Kroger's gross margins are expected to remain stable, with less upside potential due to the cycling of shrink tailwinds by mid-2025, although the company is positioned to manage the competitive environment effectively [3] - The company’s shares rose by 3.06% to $65.73 at the time of publication, reflecting positive market sentiment following the earnings report [5]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have experienced declines due to ongoing tariff discussions in the U.S., raising inflation concerns, while Kroger and Albertsons stocks remain resilient as defensive investments [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nasdaq is down 6% year-to-date in 2025, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 1%. Albertsons' stock has increased by 7% to $21 per share, and Kroger's shares are up 5% to $63 [3]. Valuation Metrics - Kroger and Albertsons are trading below the optimal sales level of less than 2X, with Kroger at 0.3X and Albertsons at 0.15X. Kroger's forward earnings multiple is 13.1X, while Albertsons is at 9X [4]. Growth Outlook - Kroger's total sales are expected to decline by 2% in fiscal 2025 but are projected to stabilize and rise by 1% in FY26 to $148.78 billion. Annual earnings are anticipated to drop by 6% to $4.46 per share in 2025, with a forecasted rebound of 7% to $4.77 in FY26 [7]. - Albertsons' revenue is expected to grow by 1% in FY25 and by another 3% in FY26 to $82.58 billion. However, annual earnings are projected to decrease to $2.29 per share, with a slight recovery to $2.34 in FY26 [10]. Dividend Yields - Both Kroger and Albertsons offer attractive dividend yields, with Albertsons at 2.89% and Kroger at 2.05%, surpassing the S&P 500 average of 1.23% [11]. Investment Consideration - Currently, both Kroger and Albertsons hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), making them potential defensive options in a portfolio amid macroeconomic uncertainties, although there may be better growth prospects in other essential operation stocks [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kroger achieved identical sales without fuel growth of 1.5% for the full year 2024, with digital sales growing 10% compared to last year [25][28] - Adjusted FIFO operating profit for 2024 was $4,700,000,000, with adjusted EPS at $4.47 per diluted share, reflecting a 2% decline when excluding the fifty-third week [28][29] - The FIFO gross margin rate excluding rent, depreciation, and amortization increased by 32 basis points for the full year, primarily due to the sale of Kroger Specialty Pharmacy and lower shrink [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Health and wellness was a strong driver of sales in 2024, led by growth in GLP-1s [26] - Alternative profit businesses generated $1,350,000,000 in operating profit, driven by a 17% increase in media [18] - Digital sales reached over $13,000,000,000 in 2024, with significant improvements in profitability noted in the fourth quarter [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customers adjusted spending habits due to macroeconomic factors, with budget-conscious households reducing spending while less budget-conscious households remained resilient [12] - Inflation for 2024 was in line with expectations, with projections for 2025 inflation set at 1.5% to 2.5% [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kroger aims to deliver total shareholder return of 8% to 11% over time, focusing on executing its go-to-market strategy and enhancing customer experience [9][10] - The company plans to significantly increase investment in major store projects, completing 30 major store projects in 2025 [34] - The board has formed a search committee for a new CEO, indicating a focus on leadership continuity and strategic execution [7][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate inflationary pressures and maintain low prices for customers [30] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in digital sales and alternative profit businesses [19][38] - Management emphasized the importance of associate well-being and retention, which has reached record levels [31][32] Other Important Information - Kroger's net total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.79, below the target range of 2.3 to 2.5, providing financial flexibility [33] - The company announced a new $7,500,000,000 share repurchase authorization, with an accelerated share repurchase program for $5,000,000,000 [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 and CEO succession - Management indicated that operating profit growth is expected from both core and alternative profit businesses, with a focus on identifying the right leader for Kroger's growth [44][46][50] Question: Digital sales and profitability improvements - Management noted strong digital sales growth and improvements in profitability, with ongoing investments in technology and operational efficiency [55][56][58] Question: ID sales guidance and inflation impact - Management acknowledged that ID sales guidance reflects flat to slightly up volumes, with inflation expectations influencing the outlook [62][64] Question: Share repurchase and balance sheet strategy - Management confirmed plans for share repurchase and maintaining a leverage ratio that allows for flexibility in capital allocation [90][91] Question: Competitive pricing and inflation trends - Management highlighted the importance of competitive pricing and monitoring supplier price increases, with a strategy to keep prices low for customers [94][96]

Core Insights - Kroger experienced significant growth in digital sales, with an 11% increase in the fourth quarter, surpassing the overall identical sales growth of 2.4% [1][2] - Digital sales contributed $13 billion to Kroger's total sales of $147.1 billion for fiscal 2024, highlighting the importance of digital channels for the company [2] - The company views digital engagement as a key growth driver, noting that digitally engaged households spend nearly three times more than non-digitally engaged ones [3] Digital Sales and AI Tools - Kroger's digital sales are seen as an "important growth accelerator," with the company implementing two new AI tools in 2024 to enhance productivity [3][4] - One AI tool focuses on inventory management using real-time sales and shipment data, while the other serves as a virtual assistant for associates, aiding in onboarding and HR interactions [4] - Approximately 70,000 associates are currently utilizing the AI tool for over 70 different use cases [4] Personalization and Customer Engagement - The company achieved a 10% increase in digital coupon savings for customers and enhanced its Boost membership by adding Disney streaming options [5] - Kroger's strategy of offering high-quality products with personalized offers has led to strong customer engagement, reflected in growth in both households and loyalty [5] Future Outlook - Kroger anticipates identical sales growth of 2% to 3% in 2025, with plans to build more stores and attract new households to enhance loyalty and shareholder value [6] - The company is focused on identifying a new CEO to drive growth and enhance shareholder value following the recent resignation of the previous CEO [7]

The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript March 6, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Robert Quast - VP, IR Ron Sargent - Interim CEO Todd Foley - Interim CFO Conference Call Participants Simeon Gutman - Morgan Stanley Leah Jordan - Goldman Sachs Michael Lasser - UBS John Heinbockel - Guggenheim Partners Michael Montani - Evercore ISI Rupesh Parikh - Oppenheimer Ed Kelly - Wells Fargo Ken Goldman - JPMorgan Karen Short - Melius Research Chuck Cerankosky - Northcoast Research Krisztina Kat ...

Core Insights - Kroger Co. reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results with top-line sales missing estimates while bottom-line earnings exceeded expectations, although both metrics declined year over year [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.14, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.12, but down from $1.34 in the previous year [3] - Total sales were $34,308 million, a decrease from $37,064 million in the year-ago period, impacted by a $2.7 billion effect from the 53rd week in 2023 and a $737 million decline from Kroger Specialty Pharmacy sales [4] - Excluding fuel, Kroger Specialty Pharmacy, and the extra week in 2023, sales grew by 2.6% year over year, with identical sales without fuel rising by 2.4% [5] Margin and Profitability - Gross margin was 22.7% of sales, influenced by the sale of Kroger Specialty Pharmacy and lower shrink, partially offset by lower pharmacy margins [6] - Adjusted FIFO operating profit was $1,174 million, down from $1,307 million reported in the year-ago period [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Kroger ended the quarter with cash of $216 million, total debt of $17,905 million, and shareholders' equity of $8,281 million, with net total debt increasing by $3,584 million over the last four quarters [8] - The company guided capital expenditures between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion and expects to generate adjusted free cash flow of $2.8 billion to $3 billion in fiscal 2025 [8] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Kroger anticipates identical sales without fuel to increase between 2% and 3%, with adjusted earnings projected to be between $4.60 and $4.80 per share compared to $4.47 in fiscal 2024 [9] - Management expects an adjusted FIFO operating profit of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025, consistent with the $4.7 billion reported in fiscal 2024 [9] Stock Performance - Kroger's shares have risen by 12.5% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 2.6% [10]

Kroger Q4 2024 Earnings Release March 6, 2025 Safe Harbor This presentation includes certain statements that constitute "forward-looking statements" about Kroger's financial position and expected performance, including our proposed transaction with Albertsons Companies. These statements are based on management's assumptions and beliefs in light of currently available information. Such statements are indicated by words or phrases such as "committed," "could," "delivering," "guidance," "may," "model," "opport ...