Core Insights - JPMorgan analysts have raised concerns about investing in companies that primarily function as Bitcoin funds rather than traditional operating businesses, highlighting potential risks in the crypto treasury sector [1][3] - MicroStrategy's recent rejection from the S&P 500 Index is seen as a significant setback for both the company and other corporate crypto treasury firms [1][4] Investment Risks - The sustainability of the corporate model for crypto treasury firms is increasingly questioned, with a growing correlation between Bitcoin price movements and the volatility of crypto-related stocks [3][4] - Increased scrutiny from traditional financial institutions is evident, with Nasdaq implementing stricter supervision on firms transitioning to Bitcoin proxies [4] Market Trends - Companies with operational business models, such as exchanges or miners, are preferred by JPMorgan over pure crypto treasury plays, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards more sustainable business practices [5] - Notable gains have been observed in companies like Galaxy Digital and Bitfarms, driven by strategic moves into AI and high-performance computing, contrasting with declines in pure BTC treasury vehicles [6]

Bitcoin Holdings - MicroStrategy (MSTR) 自 2020 年以来，持续增加其每股持有的比特币数量，达到历史新高 [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500's rejection of MicroStrategy, now rebranded as Strategy, is seen as a significant warning to companies heavily invested in Bitcoin, despite meeting technical requirements [1][2][3] - Analysts from JPMorgan describe the decision as a "blow to crypto treasuries," indicating a reluctance to include companies that operate more like Bitcoin funds than traditional businesses [2][5] - The exclusion of MicroStrategy from the S&P 500 suggests that the indirect exposure to Bitcoin through such companies may be reaching its limits, impacting their stock performance and institutional investment [3][5] Group 2 - MicroStrategy holds the largest public Bitcoin treasury, with 638,460 BTC, significantly outpacing other companies, which positions it as a proxy for investors seeking crypto exposure [6][5] - The decision by the S&P 500 committee raises concerns that other index providers may reconsider their inclusion of crypto treasury companies, potentially affecting their market presence [5][2] - Currently, public companies collectively hold about 1,006,592 BTC, representing approximately 4.8% of the total supply, with ETFs and funds holding the majority at 1.63 million BTC [6]

Index Inclusion - Michael Saylor's strategy was denied entry into the S&P 500 despite meeting technical requirements [1] - Index committees are reluctant to include companies acting as bitcoin funds [1]

Core Insights - Strategy (MSTR) shares are currently overvalued with a Value Score of F, trading at a price/book ratio of 1.93X compared to MARA Holdings' 1.23X and Riot Platforms' 1.84X, indicating a premium valuation [1] - MSTR stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a bearish trend [6][8] - Year-to-date, MSTR shares have appreciated 12.7%, underperforming the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry's return of 3.9% and the Zacks Finance sector's return of 12.1% [9] - As of September 7, Strategy holds 638,460 bitcoins, making it the world's largest bitcoin treasury company [10] - MSTR's expected operating income for 2025 is $34 billion, with a net income of $24 billion, based on a bitcoin price of $150,000 [17] Valuation Comparison - MSTR shares have underperformed Riot Platforms but outperformed MARA Holdings and CleanSpark, with MARA Holdings dropping 5.4%, while Riot Platforms and CleanSpark shares increased by 60.6% and 8.9%, respectively [11] - The disciplined capital raising approach through preferred equity offerings, including STRK, STRF, Stride, and Stretch, is a key catalyst for MSTR [18] Financial Performance - MSTR has issued $10.7 billion in equities and $7.6 billion in fixed income securities year to date, with significant amounts raised through various convertible notes and offerings [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR's loss for the third quarter of 2025 remains unchanged at 11 cents per share, compared to a loss of $1.56 in the same quarter last year [21] - For 2025, the consensus estimate for MSTR's loss is $15.73 per share, compared to a loss of $6.72 per share in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - Despite growing bitcoin holdings, MSTR faces challenges from a stretched valuation, difficult macroeconomic conditions, and tariff uncertainties that increase bitcoin trading volatility [23]

Group 1 - Companies acquiring ether and other altcoins have seen significant stock price increases, with some stocks surging over 500% year-to-date [2][3] - Eightco Holding, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, and Sharplink Gaming are among the companies transitioning to crypto treasuries, purchasing various cryptocurrencies for their balance sheets [2][5] - The trend of companies acting as crypto proxies is gaining momentum, with a revival in altcoins potentially legitimizing these assets further [3][8] Group 2 - Bitcoin's market dominance has decreased from 65% in late June to approximately 56%, while ether's share has increased from around 9% to 13% [7] - The overall market share of non-stablecoins has risen from 19% to 24%, indicating a growing interest in altcoins [7] - Traders are increasingly buying stocks of companies with crypto treasuries as a way to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without direct investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500's exclusion of MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy MSTR, raises concerns about the viability of corporate treasury investments in cryptocurrency [1][2][4]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Decision - S&P Dow Jones Indices decided not to include Strategy MSTR in the S&P 500 index despite it meeting size and other key requirements, indicating a significant stance on corporate crypto investments [2][4]. - The exclusion suggests that the committee is wary of including companies that primarily function as bitcoin funds, which could impact other corporate crypto treasuries attempting to follow MicroStrategy's model [4][5]. Group 2: Implications for Corporate Crypto Treasuries - The rejection of Strategy MSTR signals a limitation on how much cryptocurrency can be integrated into investor portfolios through traditional equity indices [5]. - There is a potential risk that other index providers may reconsider their inclusion of corporate crypto treasuries in their indices following S&P's decision [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Considerations - The Nasdaq has begun requiring companies with crypto assets to obtain shareholder approval before issuing new shares for crypto purchases, reflecting growing scrutiny on corporate treasury practices [6]. - As concerns about the sustainability of corporate treasuries increase, there may be a shift in investor and index provider preferences towards crypto companies with operational businesses, such as exchanges or miners [6].

Core Viewpoint - SharpLink Gaming's co-CEO believes that the crypto treasury trend will not negatively impact the industry, contrasting it with the FTX collapse, and instead views it as a positive event that will enhance institutional adoption of Ethereum [1][5]. Group 1: Company Strategy - SharpLink has accumulated over $3.7 billion worth of Ethereum, holding 837,230 ETH, which is approximately 0.69% of the total circulating ETH supply [1][4]. - The company positions itself as an accumulator of Ethereum rather than a seller, indicating that it views Ethereum as a reserve asset and plans to raise liquidity through debt instruments if necessary [4]. - This strategy mirrors that of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury company, which has successfully raised capital through debt while accumulating Bitcoin [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The co-CEO emphasizes the inevitability of increased Ethereum adoption among non-crypto companies as they recognize the potential for reduced capital requirements and risks in trading and transactions [2][3]. - There is a growing concern in the market regarding the accumulation of tokens by major firms, but the company categorically rules out the possibility of the crypto treasury trend being a black swan event [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - Strategy (MSTR) has experienced a significant decline of -16.3% in share price over the past month, contrasting with the S&P 500's +2.4% increase, raising questions about its future performance [2] Earnings Estimates - The company is projected to report a loss of $0.11 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of +93% [5] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year stands at -$15.73, indicating a year-over-year decline of -134.1% [5] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $0.4, representing a year-over-year increase of +97.5% [6] - The Zacks Rank for Strategy is 4 (Sell), influenced by recent changes in earnings estimates and other related factors [7] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $118.2 million, showing a year-over-year growth of +1.8% [11] - Estimated revenues for the current and next fiscal years are $466.75 million and $485.05 million, reflecting changes of +0.7% and +3.9%, respectively [11] Last Reported Results and Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Strategy achieved revenues of $114.49 million, a year-over-year increase of +2.7%, and an EPS of $32.6 compared to -$0.76 a year ago [12] - The company surpassed revenue estimates once in the last four quarters and exceeded EPS estimates only once during the same period [13] Valuation - Strategy is graded F in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [17]

RT Strategy (@Strategy)Strategy consistently accretes Bitcoin Per Share (BPS) for $MSTR investors. https://t.co/uxJWjkzyBV ...