The sharemarket opened up on a positive note this week, tracking an upbeat Wall ‍Street session and buoyed by higher oil prices, with gains led by ⁠financials, consumer discretionary and energy stocks.The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.8% to 8,785.90 points by 2355 GMT. The benchmark ended unchanged on Friday and fell 0.1% ‌last week. Financials advanced 1.2% in Australia, according to news agency Reuters. The sector fell 2.5% last week on mounting worries that potential rate hikes could deter new mortgage buyer ...

就业市场整体疲软背景下，医疗保健和社会服务行业稳定招聘成为少数避风港。75%年轻求职者更倾向选择医院等稳定场所，而非曾象征高薪机遇的科技巨 头。 7 e l y H 美国劳工部最新就业报告显示劳动力市场疲软：2025年12月新增就业5万个，全年新增58.4万个，较2024年200万个大幅下滑，创下2000年代初以来非经济衰 退时期最低纪录。 这让依赖稳定工作的普通美国人陷入焦虑，就业停滞不再是抽象指标，而是制造业车间、农场田间、运输线路上的真实困境，政策选择的连锁反应持续发 酵。 经济学家马克·赞迪指出，关税政策是核心影响因素。2025年4月关税政策推出后，美国就业市场持续疲软，后续数据修正后或出现净就业下降。 普通劳动者面临切实生存压力：制造业已流失7万个岗位，采矿、伐木和仓储业就业机会缩减数万，从业者或面临失业，或失去晋升加薪可能。关税推高成 本，企业重新评估盈利空间，暂停扩产招聘计划，部分企业裁员维持运营，经营不确定性转化为劳动者职业焦虑。 关税之外，多重政策叠加加剧就业压力。限制性移民政策导致农业、食品加工等依赖移民劳动力的行业用工短缺，也剥夺部分移民稳定就业收入；政府效率 部补贴削减让中小企业失去政 ...

In our recent note, we downgraded Glencore to Neutral. We take this momentum to revisit Rio Tinto ( RIO , RTPPF , RTNTF ), reflecting the close linkage and growing correlation between the two companies. Taking advantage ofBuy-side hedge professionals conducting fundamental, income oriented, long term analysis across sectors globally in developed markets. Please shoot us a message or leave a comment to discuss ideas.DISCLOSURE: All of our articles are a matter of opinion, informed as they might be, and must ...

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela's Oil Industry - President Trump's initiative aims to attract billions of dollars from US energy companies to revitalize Venezuela's oil sector, which is believed to have the world's largest oil reserves [1][4] - The plan includes US companies potentially rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure and reviving production, with an initial offer of up to 50 million barrels of oil valued at approximately $3 billion [5][6] Challenges and Risks - Significant questions remain regarding the timeline and costs associated with increasing energy production, with concerns that the political will in both the US and Venezuela may wane over time [2] - The current global oil market is characterized by oversupply, with declining capital spending in oil due to abundant supply and lower-than-expected demand [3] - Experts estimate that restoring Venezuela's oil production could require investments of up to $100 billion over the next decade, raising doubts about the feasibility of such a turnaround [9] Major Players and Market Dynamics - Chevron is currently the only major US oil producer operating in Venezuela, with the potential to increase its cash flow by up to $700 million annually if production levels are restored [7] - Previous operators like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips face challenges in recovering assets worth over $9 billion due to past seizures, complicating their return to the market [8] Refining and Related Opportunities - US refiners are already seeing increased interest, with about 140 million barrels of Venezuelan crude processed in 2025, representing 0.8% of total US throughput [11] - Companies like Valero Energy and PBF Energy could benefit from increased Venezuelan crude flows, while Phillips 66 may see upside from the need for imported diluent [12] Broader Investment Themes - The potential for increased tanker operations could benefit companies like DHT Holdings and Frontline, especially if Chevron charters compliant vessels to replace those circumventing US sanctions [13] - Beyond oil, Venezuela's rich mineral deposits present opportunities for mining companies, although the current state of the industry poses significant challenges [16][17] Infrastructure and Long-Term Investments - Rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure is viewed as a long-term opportunity, with historical precedents suggesting that recovery in post-crisis markets can take years [18] - Investors are advised to consider high-quality regional companies with indirect exposure to Venezuela, treating direct investments as long-dated options [19] Defense and Food Sector Implications - Increased geopolitical uncertainty may benefit defense companies, with potential gains for firms like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman [20] - Opportunities in food exports may arise if Venezuela's economy recovers, with companies like Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland positioned to benefit [21] Debt and Macro Considerations - The removal of Maduro has sparked interest in Venezuela's defaulted debt, with potential for higher recovery values as part of a debt restructuring [22][23] - The geopolitical shakeup could influence macro-oriented investments, with implications for oil prices and consumer confidence [24][25]

2026年1月11日 博弈。 镍铁抬升震荡重心。 盘面博弈印度 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对線与不锈钢的关注度提高,本质在于消息面的变化,主要包括:印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钻，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采银矿罚款，具体来看: 1 公安期货研 行情观点: 沪镍:产业与二级市场资金对垒,银价宽幅震荡运行、'银的现实基本面确实偏弱,过剩压力与低成本 的湿法投产预期共振,盘面多次增仓试探性地找寻供需再平衡的估值位置,但是二级市场对商品的关注度 明显提高,商品资金流动性充足,印尼消息面的犹动给予了资金轮动的补涨情绪。在产业角度,认为印尼 政策在往年多次的灵活调整,以及一季度配额过渡期的现实,对配额政策仍保有观望情绪,同时,基本面 角度,利润修复增加供应端复产、进口利润回到正区间,以及盘面较镍铁溢价丰厚,套保和套利资金对線 价的弹性形成了约束。在二级市场角度,以长线逢低多的路径思考,更加关注低价矿吸引冶炼投资的"红 利"周期结束,政策在未来或出现周期性转变,同时,印尼多项政策的组合拳共振,进一步明确了印尼希 望挺价 ...

Core Insights - Robert Friedland, a prominent mining executive, emphasizes the urgent need to address the critical minerals shortage as global ambitions for electrification and AI clash with an inadequate mineral supply system [1][2] - The global economy is undergoing significant structural changes due to geopolitical factors, leading to a shift from globalization to a focus on supply chain resilience [2] - Friedland predicts that as economies transition to a "just-in-case" model, certain raw materials will gain immense value, impacting currency strength against essential materials [3] Company Insights - Sunrise Energy Metals, co-chaired by Friedland, controls the Syerston project in New South Wales, recognized as the largest and highest-grade scandium deposit under development [3][4] - The company experienced a remarkable 3,400% increase in market performance in 2025, driven by U.S. government interest and an agreement with Lockheed Martin [4] Industry Challenges - The copper industry faces significant challenges, with current consumption at 30 million tons per year and only 4 million tons recycled, necessitating a mining output equivalent to the last 10,000 years within the next 18 years to sustain GDP growth [5] - Declining ore grades, rising costs, and extended development times complicate the mining of copper, with energy requirements for production increasing 16-fold since 1900 [6] Proposed Solutions - Friedland advocates for the adoption of advanced exploration tools and energy-efficient processing methods to enhance mining effectiveness, reduce emissions, and improve recovery rates [7] - Without technological advancements, the energy transition and economic growth will face severe geological limitations [7]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is that Rio Tinto is in talks to acquire Glencore, which could lead to the creation of a new global leader in the mining industry and stimulate consolidation efforts in the copper sector [1] - This potential acquisition may increase pressure on BHP, which is currently the largest mining company in the world [1]

Rio Tinto-Glencore merger talks underscore the growing demand for copper, driven in part by AI. ...

Core Viewpoint - The iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL) is presented as a viable alternative to the iShares Core, suggesting potential investment opportunities in large-cap equities [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The analyst emphasizes the importance of identifying underpriced equities with strong upside potential while also recognizing overappreciated companies with inflated valuations [1]. - A focus on the energy sector, including oil & gas supermajors and exploration & production companies, is highlighted, along with coverage of various other industries such as mining and chemicals [1]. - The analyst advocates for a thorough assessment of Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital to gain deeper insights into investment opportunities [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The analyst acknowledges that while some growth stocks may deserve premium valuations, it is crucial for investors to investigate whether the market's current opinions are justified [1].

Core Viewpoint - The iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL) is presented as a viable alternative to the iShares Core, suggesting potential investment opportunities in large-cap equities [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The analyst emphasizes the importance of identifying underpriced equities with strong upside potential while also recognizing overappreciated companies with inflated valuations [1] - A focus on the energy sector, including oil & gas supermajors and exploration & production companies, is highlighted, alongside coverage of various other industries such as mining and chemicals [1] - The analyst advocates for a thorough assessment of Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital to gain deeper insights into investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Market Perspective - The belief that some growth stocks warrant their premium valuations is acknowledged, indicating a nuanced approach to evaluating market opinions [1]