Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - National Fuel Gas Company reported a 66% increase in adjusted operating results compared to the previous year, driven by higher natural gas prices and lower per unit operating costs at Seneca [15][29] - The company narrowed its earnings guidance for fiscal 2025 to a range of $6.80 to $6.95 per share, reflecting positive momentum across the company despite a reduction in NYMEX forecast from $3.50 to $3.25 for the fourth quarter [15][16] - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates earnings per share in the range of $8.00 to $8.50, representing a 20% increase from fiscal 2025 at the midpoint [17][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production at Seneca increased by 16% year-over-year, with guidance for full-year production expected to rise approximately 8% compared to fiscal 2024 [4][5] - The company raised its production guidance for fiscal 2025 to a new target range of 420 Bcf to 425 Bcf, an 8% increase at the midpoint year-over-year [30] - For fiscal 2026, production is projected to grow by 6% at the midpoint, with capital expenditures expected to decrease by 4% [31][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The natural gas market outlook remains constructive, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals, with U.S. LNG demand exceeding 16 Bcf per day [33][34] - The company noted that while U.S. gas production has increased, storage levels have remained near the five-year average, indicating resilient structural demand [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - National Fuel is focused on organic growth, with ongoing investments in modernization and expansion projects, including the Shippingport Lateral and Tioga Pathway projects [7][25] - The company aims to achieve mid-single-digit rate base growth over the next several years while continuing to invest in system modernization [6][28] - Management emphasized the importance of infrastructure to support growing energy demand, particularly in Pennsylvania, where significant investments have been announced [7][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the natural gas industry's future, highlighting that demand for natural gas is at all-time highs both domestically and abroad [13][14] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on new infrastructure developments and has a strong balance sheet to support growth initiatives [28] - Management acknowledged the need for permitting reform to facilitate larger-scale projects in the future [77] Other Important Information - The company raised its dividend for the 55th consecutive year to an annual rate of $2.14 per share, reflecting strong results and confidence in the long-term outlook [10] - National Fuel's capital spending guidance for fiscal 2025 remains unchanged, with a modest increase projected for fiscal 2026 due to inflationary pressures [23][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: On the buyback pause and capital allocation - Management indicated that the decision to pause the buyback program was driven by capital allocation priorities, focusing on balance sheet flexibility for growth opportunities [39][40] Question: Impact of cash taxes in 2026 and beyond - Management expects cash tax rates to be in the high single digits for the current year, moving to low to mid-single digits next year due to changes in tax legislation [42][43] Question: Tioga Pathway project spending cadence - Construction for the Tioga Pathway project will begin in spring, with the bulk of spending occurring in summer as contractors install the lines [46] Question: Industry trends on service costs - Management noted that while there are inflationary pressures, they do not expect significant increases in service costs and anticipate a neutral to slightly down trend overall [48][49] Question: Supply agreements with new egress in Northeast Pennsylvania - Management expressed excitement about opportunities arising from new egress projects and highlighted the company's strong position due to deep inventory and an investment-grade credit rating [52][53] Question: Growth opportunities in regulated pipeline investments - Management emphasized organic growth as the top priority, with ongoing projects like Shippingport and Tioga Pathway seen as important steps, while larger-scale projects will require permitting reform [75][77]

Financial Performance & Guidance - The company projects a 36-39% increase in FY25 earnings compared to FY24 [54] - The company anticipates a consolidated 3-year Adjusted EPS CAGR greater than 10% from FY24-FY27E [52] - The company's FY26 Adjusted EPS guidance varies based on NYMEX pricing, with estimates ranging from $6.35-$6.85 at $2.30 NYMEX to $9.75-$10.25 at $3.90 NYMEX [186] - The company returned over $650 million to shareholders in the last 3 years [41] Operational Highlights - Seneca Resources' current net production is approximately 1.2 Bcf/day [22] - The company has reduced methane emissions by 17% since 2020 [13, 50] - The company's Utility segment has approximately 755,000 customers [17] - The company's Pipeline & Storage segment has a total rate base of $1.6 billion [26] Capital Expenditure & Development - The company's Seneca Resources is driving a 30% improvement in capital efficiency since FY23 [76] - The company's Tioga Utica wells deliver over 2x the well productivity versus legacy WDA program [75] - The company's Shippingport Lateral Project will initially have a capacity of 205,000 Dth/day [91]

[Financial and Operational Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20and%20Operational%20Highlights) [Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Performance Summary](index=1&type=section&id=Third%20Quarter%20Fiscal%202025%20Performance%20Summary) National Fuel Gas Company reported strong Q3 FY2025 results, with a significant turnaround in GAAP earnings and a 66% increase in adjusted EPS, driven by record production and higher natural gas prices Q3 FY2025 vs Q3 FY2024 Earnings Per Share | Metric | Q3 FY2025 ($/share) | Q3 FY2024 ($/share) | Change ($/share) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **GAAP EPS** | $1.64 | $(0.59) | +$2.23 | | **Adjusted EPS** | $1.64 | $0.99 | +66% | - Exploration and Production segment's adjusted operating results surged **157%** to **$0.95 per share**, fueled by a **16%** increase in natural gas production to a record **112 Bcf**, higher realized prices, and lower unit costs[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The company is revising its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of **$6.80 to $6.95 per share**[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Key pipeline development milestones were achieved, including the announcement of the Shippingport Lateral Project and FERC approval for the Tioga Pathway Project[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) Management attributed strong Q3 performance to record upstream production and capital efficiency, anticipating significant FY2026 earnings growth from production and regulated business expansion - Management noted record production and throughput in integrated upstream and gathering operations, coupled with improved capital efficiency[4](index=4&type=chunk) - The company anticipates significant earnings growth in fiscal 2026, supported by momentum in all business segments and a positive long-term outlook for natural gas[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Strong well results in the Eastern Development Area (EDA) underpin expectations for mid-single-digit production growth in the coming years[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Capital Allocation](index=2&type=section&id=Capital%20Allocation) The company increased its annual dividend by **4%** for the 55th consecutive year and repurchased approximately **2 million shares**, pausing buybacks to maintain balance sheet flexibility - The Board of Directors approved a **4%** dividend increase, resulting in an annual rate of **$2.14 per share**, marking the 55th consecutive year of dividend increases[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Since March 2024, the company repurchased approximately **2 million shares** at an average price of **$59.70 per share**[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Share repurchases were paused during the quarter to preserve balance sheet flexibility for potential growth opportunities[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Financial Guidance](index=2&type=section&id=Financial%20Guidance) [Fiscal 2025 Guidance Update](index=2&type=section&id=Fiscal%202025%20Guidance%20Update) National Fuel revised its FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance to **$6.80-$6.95**, reflecting strong Q3 results, higher production, and lower unit costs, despite lower expected natural gas prices FY 2025 Updated Guidance | Metric | Updated Range ($/share) | | :--- | :--- | | **Adjusted EPS** | $6.80 - $6.95 | - The guidance revision is based on an assumed average NYMEX natural gas price of **$3.25 per MMBtu** for the remaining three months of fiscal 2025[10](index=10&type=chunk) FY 2025 Key Assumptions | Metric | Guidance | | :--- | :--- | | **Consolidated Capital Expenditures** | $890 - $955 million | | **E&P Production (Bcf)** | 420 to 425 | | **Gathering Segment Revenues** | $255 - $260 million | | **Pipeline & Storage Segment Revenues** | $420 - $430 million | | **Utility Segment Customer Margin** | $450 - $460 million | [Fiscal 2026 Preliminary Guidance and Outlook](index=2&type=section&id=Fiscal%202026%20Preliminary%20Guidance%20and%20Outlook) Preliminary FY2026 guidance projects adjusted EPS of **$8.00-$8.50**, a **20% increase**, driven by improved capital efficiency, **6% production growth**, and regulated segment expansion FY 2026 Preliminary Adjusted EPS Guidance at Various NYMEX Prices | NYMEX Assumption ($/MMBtu) | Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EPS Range ($/share) | | :--- | :--- | | $3.00 | $6.35 - $6.85 | | $4.00 | $8.00 - $8.50 | | $5.00 | $9.75 - $10.25 | - Seneca's (E&P) capital expenditures are expected to decrease by **4%** while production is projected to increase by **6%** to a range of **440 to 455 Bcf**[13](index=13&type=chunk) - Regulated segment earnings are expected to increase due to ongoing modernization investments and recent ratemaking efforts[13](index=13&type=chunk) - Combined Utility and Pipeline & Storage capital expenditures are expected to increase by **$110 million** from FY2025, driven by modernization and significant expansion projects[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Segment Performance Analysis (Q3 FY2025)](index=4&type=section&id=Segment%20Performance%20Analysis%20(Q3%20FY2025)) [Upstream Business (Exploration and Production)](index=4&type=section&id=Upstream%20Business%20(Exploration%20and%20Production)) The E&P segment saw Q3 adjusted operating results surge by **$52.9 million** to **$86.7 million**, fueled by record **112 Bcf** natural gas production and higher realized prices E&P Segment Q3 Earnings (in thousands) | Metric | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | Variance (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **GAAP Earnings** | $86,671 | $(112,028) | $198,699 | | **Adjusted Operating Results** | $86,704 | $33,843 | $52,861 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $202,488 | $128,535 | $73,953 | - Natural gas production reached a company record of **112 Bcf**, a **16%** increase from the prior year, driven by two highly prolific Utica pads in Tioga County[19](index=19&type=chunk) - The weighted average realized natural gas price increased by **$0.43** to **$2.71 per Mcf**, after hedging and transportation costs[20](index=20&type=chunk) E&P Operating Costs per Mcf | Cost per Mcf | Q3 2025 ($/Mcf) | Q3 2024 ($/Mcf) | Variance ($/Mcf) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Cash Operating Costs** | $0.91 | $0.96 | $(0.05) | | **DD&A Expense** | $0.62 | $0.71 | $(0.09) | | **Total Operating Costs** | $1.53 | $1.67 | $(0.14) | [Midstream Businesses](index=5&type=section&id=Midstream%20Businesses) Midstream businesses showed mixed Q3 performance, with Gathering earnings up **$5.0 million** from higher throughput, while Pipeline and Storage earnings decreased by **$1.8 million** due to increased O&M expenses [Pipeline and Storage Segment](index=5&type=section&id=Pipeline%20and%20Storage%20Segment) The Pipeline and Storage segment's Q3 GAAP earnings decreased by **$1.8 million** to **$28.9 million**, primarily due to higher Operations and Maintenance expenses Pipeline and Storage Segment Q3 Earnings (in thousands) | Metric | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | Variance (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **GAAP Earnings** | $28,857 | $30,690 | $(1,833) | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $67,019 | $68,221 | $(1,202) | - The earnings decrease was mainly due to higher O&M expense from inflationary increases in personnel and contractor costs[23](index=23&type=chunk) [Gathering Segment](index=5&type=section&id=Gathering%20Segment) The Gathering segment' reported strong Q3 GAAP earnings, increasing by **$5.0 million** to **$30.0 million**, driven by a **13%** rise in operating revenues from higher throughput Gathering Segment Q3 Earnings (in thousands) | Metric | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | Variance (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **GAAP Earnings** | $29,996 | $24,979 | $5,017 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $55,923 | $47,631 | $8,292 | - The earnings increase was primarily due to a **13%** rise in operating revenues from increased throughput from new wells in Tioga County[25](index=25&type=chunk) [Downstream Business (Utility)](index=6&type=section&id=Downstream%20Business%20(Utility)) The Utility segment's Q3 GAAP earnings nearly doubled to **$5.0 million**, a **95% increase**, primarily due to new rates from the New York rate case settlement and higher customer margin Utility Segment Q3 Earnings (in thousands) | Metric | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | Variance (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **GAAP Earnings** | $4,997 | $2,559 | $2,438 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $25,743 | $21,047 | $4,696 | - The **95%** earnings increase was primarily a result of new rates approved in the New York rate case settlement[28](index=28&type=chunk) - Customer margin (operating revenues less purchased gas) increased by **$8.4 million**, driven by higher customer usage from colder weather and the new rate settlement[29](index=29&type=chunk) [Corporate and All Other](index=6&type=section&id=Corporate%20and%20All%20Other) The Corporate and All Other segment reported a net loss of **$0.7 million** for Q3, consistent with the prior-year period - The segment generated a net loss of **$0.7 million**, which was consistent with the prior-year period[31](index=31&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=13&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) [Summary of Operations (Income Statement)](index=13&type=section&id=Summary%20of%20Operations%20(Income%20Statement)) National Fuel reported Q3 net income of **$149.8 million**, a significant improvement from a **$54.2 million** net loss in the prior year, driven by increased operating revenues and no asset impairment Consolidated Summary of Operations (in thousands) | Metric | Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 (in thousands) | Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating Revenues** | $531,830 | $417,442 | | **Operating Income (Loss)** | $230,252 | $(51,440) | | **Net Income (Loss)** | $149,818 | $(54,158) | | **Diluted EPS** | $1.64 | $(0.59) | [Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=14&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of June 30, 2025, total assets increased to **$8.45 billion**, with shareholders' equity rising to **$2.98 billion** and long-term debt increasing to **$2.38 billion** Key Balance Sheet Items (in thousands) | Metric | June 30, 2025 (in thousands) | September 30, 2024 (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Assets** | $8,446,160 | $8,319,770 | | **Total Comprehensive Shareholders' Equity** | $2,975,488 | $2,848,343 | | **Long-Term Debt, Net** | $2,381,852 | $2,188,243 | | **Total Capitalization and Liabilities** | $8,446,160 | $8,319,770 | [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=15&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the nine months ended June 30, 2025, operating cash flow remained stable at **$862.3 million**, investing cash outflow decreased to **$618.0 million**, and financing cash outflow increased to **$243.2 million** Consolidated Cash Flows - Nine Months Ended June 30 (in thousands) | Metric | 2025 (in thousands) | 2024 (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities** | $862,276 | $868,015 | | **Net Cash Used in Investing Activities** | $(617,964) | $(685,571) | | **Net Cash Used in Financing Activities** | $(243,217) | $(156,477) | | **Net Increase in Cash** | $1,095 | $25,967 | [Appendix: Reconciliations and Supplemental Data](index=2&type=section&id=Appendix%3A%20Reconciliations%20and%20Supplemental%20Data) [Reconciliation of GAAP Earnings to Adjusted Operating Results](index=2&type=section&id=Reconciliation%20of%20GAAP%20Earnings%20to%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Results) The reconciliation shows Q3 FY2025 GAAP earnings of **$149.8 million** adjusted to **$149.2 million** operating results, while Q3 FY2024 GAAP earnings of **-$54.2 million** were adjusted for a **$200.7 million** asset impairment Q3 GAAP to Adjusted Operating Results Reconciliation (in thousands) | Description | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported GAAP Earnings** | $149,818 | $(54,158) | | Impairment of assets (E&P) | — | $200,696 | | Tax impact of impairment | — | $(55,686) | | Other | $(615) | $873 | | **Adjusted Operating Results** | $149,203 | $91,725 | Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (in thousands) | Description | Q3 2025 (in thousands) | Q3 2024 (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported GAAP Earnings** | $149,818 | $(54,158) | | Add: D&A, Interest, Taxes, etc. | $196,842 | $112,509 | | Add: Impairment of Assets | — | $200,696 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | $346,660 | $262,710 | [Segment Operating Statistics](index=21&type=section&id=Segment%20Operating%20Statistics) Q3 FY2025 operational statistics show strong performance, with Appalachian gas production up **16%** to **111.6 Bcf**, and increased throughput in Gathering, Pipeline & Storage, and Utility segments Q3 Gas Production (Appalachia) | Metric | Q3 2025 (MMcf) | Q3 2024 (MMcf) | Change (MMcf) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Production** | 111,588 | 96,504 | +15,084 | Q3 Throughput and Volume (MMcf) | Segment | Q3 2025 (MMcf) | Q3 2024 (MMcf) | Change (MMcf) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Pipeline & Storage Throughput** | 179,182 | 168,628 | +10,554 | | **Gathering Volume** | 133,271 | 118,445 | +14,826 | | **Utility Throughput** | 25,755 | 22,312 | +3,443 | - Weather was significantly colder in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, with degree days up **46.0%** in Buffalo, NY and **56.6%** in Erie, PA, contributing to higher utility demand[71](index=71&type=chunk)

Financial Performance - National Fuel Gas (NFG) reported revenue of $531.83 million for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27.4% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.64, compared to $0.99 in the same quarter last year, indicating a significant improvement [1] - The reported revenue was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $617.15 million by 13.82%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.50 by 9.33% [1] Key Metrics - Total production reached 111,588.00 MMcfe, surpassing the average estimate of 109,269.00 MMcfe from two analysts [4] - Total operating revenues from Pipeline and Storage were $70.5 million, which was 33.1% lower year-over-year and below the average estimate of $106.61 million [4] - Total operating revenues from Gathering were $157.52 million, significantly higher than the estimated $66.85 million, representing a 162% increase year-over-year [4] - Utility revenues amounted to $157.45 million, exceeding the average estimate of $146.55 million, with a year-over-year increase of 26% [4] - Revenue from external customers in Exploration and Production was $303.88 million, slightly above the estimated $302.12 million, marking a 37.6% year-over-year increase [4] Stock Performance - Shares of National Fuel Gas have returned +4.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - National Fuel Gas (NFG) reported quarterly earnings of $1.64 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.5 per share, and showing an increase from $0.99 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +9.33% [1] - The company posted revenues of $531.83 million for the quarter ended June 2025, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.82%, compared to $417.44 million in the same quarter last year [2] - National Fuel Gas shares have increased approximately 44.7% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.26 on revenues of $579.93 million, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $6.80 on revenues of $2.47 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for National Fuel Gas was mixed prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, to which National Fuel Gas belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 8% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas Company reported strong third-quarter results for fiscal 2025, highlighting record production and throughput in its upstream operations, alongside improved earnings in its regulated Utility and Pipeline & Storage segments, driven by recent ratemaking activities and organic investments [3][4]. Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Summary - The company achieved GAAP earnings of $149.8 million, or $1.64 per share, compared to a net loss of $54.2 million, or $(0.59) per share, in the prior year [7][8]. - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 66% to $1.64 from $0.99 in the previous year [8]. - Natural gas production reached 112 Bcf, a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by strong well performance in the Eastern Development Area [8][20]. Management Commentary - The CEO emphasized the company's positive momentum and long-term outlook for natural gas, projecting significant earnings growth for fiscal 2026 [3][4]. - The company anticipates mid-single-digit production growth in the coming years, supported by strong well results and ongoing investments in regulated businesses [4]. Return of Capital Update - The Board approved a 4% increase in the dividend, bringing the annual rate to $2.14 per share, marking the 55th consecutive year of dividend increases [5]. - Since March 2024, the company repurchased approximately 2 million shares at an average price of $59.70, although repurchases were paused during the quarter to evaluate growth opportunities [6]. Fiscal 2025 Guidance Update - The adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025 has been revised to a range of $6.80 to $6.95, reflecting third-quarter results and expectations for lower realized natural gas prices [10][39]. - Preliminary earnings guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to increase by 20% from fiscal 2025, based on various NYMEX price assumptions [12][39]. Segment Performance Exploration and Production - The Exploration and Production segment reported adjusted operating results of $0.95 per share, a 157% increase year-over-year, attributed to lower operating costs and higher natural gas prices [8][20]. - The segment's GAAP earnings increased by $198.7 million compared to the prior year, which included a significant impairment charge [19]. Pipeline and Storage - The Pipeline and Storage segment's GAAP earnings decreased slightly due to higher operations and maintenance expenses, primarily from inflationary pressures [25]. Gathering Segment - The Gathering segment's GAAP earnings increased by $5 million, driven by a 13% rise in operating revenues due to increased throughput from new wells [27]. Utility Segment - The Utility segment's GAAP earnings rose by 95% to $5 million, primarily due to new rates from a recent rate case settlement [29][30]. - Customer margin increased by $8.4 million, supported by higher customer usage and rate adjustments [30]. Capital Expenditures and Future Outlook - The company expects capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to range between $955 million and $1.065 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in modernization and expansion projects [40]. - The Exploration and Production segment anticipates production to increase to a range of 440 to 455 Bcf in fiscal 2026, a 6% increase at the midpoint [16][40].

Core Insights - National Fuel Gas (NFG) is positioned to potentially continue its earnings-beat streak in upcoming reports, with a history of surpassing earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters, averaging a surprise of 7.68% [1][5] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, National Fuel Gas reported earnings of $2.18 per share against an expectation of $2.39, resulting in a surprise of 9.63%. In the previous quarter, the company reported $1.66 per share compared to a consensus estimate of $1.57, achieving a surprise of 5.73% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for National Fuel Gas have been trending upward, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat, especially when combined with its Zacks Rank [5][8] - The current Earnings ESP for National Fuel Gas stands at +1.33%, reflecting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [8] Statistical Insights - Research indicates that stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise, suggesting that out of 10 such stocks, approximately seven may beat consensus estimates [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas (NFG) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with actual results being a significant factor in determining the stock's near-term price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show earnings of $1.50 per share, reflecting a +51.5% change year-over-year, and revenues of $617.15 million, which is a +47.8% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.15% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a positive Earnings ESP of +1.33% for National Fuel Gas, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, National Fuel Gas exceeded the expected earnings of $2.18 per share by delivering $2.39, resulting in a surprise of +9.63%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13][14]. Investment Considerations - While a potential earnings beat is a positive indicator, other factors may also influence stock performance, making it essential for investors to consider the broader context [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas Company is set to release its third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results on July 30, 2025, after market close, with a conference call scheduled for July 31, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET to discuss the results [1]. Group 1 - The conference call will include approximately 20 minutes of prepared remarks from the executive team, followed by a question and answer session [1]. - Participants must pre-register to join the conference using the provided registration link [2]. - A replay of the conference call will be available until the end of the day on August 7, 2025, accessible via a specific dial-in number and access code [2]. Group 2 - National Fuel is a diversified energy company based in Western New York, operating across four business segments: Exploration & Production, Pipeline & Storage, Gathering, and Utility [3]. - Additional information about National Fuel can be found on their official website [3].

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas (NFG) is experiencing a positive momentum in its stock price, driven by strong earnings and revenue growth expectations, as well as its strategic role in natural gas transportation for new energy projects [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - NFG shares increased by 5.7% to close at $88.82, with notable trading volume compared to typical sessions [1]. - Over the past four weeks, the stock has gained 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Business Opportunities - NFG will be a key transporter of natural gas for the new Shippingport Power Station, which is expected to consume up to 800 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) [2]. - The company plans to utilize its interstate pipeline network to ensure reliable deliveries of natural gas from the Appalachian Basin to the facility, which will enhance its transportation revenues and pipeline utilization [2]. Group 3: Financial Expectations - NFG is projected to report quarterly earnings of $1.46 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 47.5% [3]. - Expected revenues for the upcoming quarter are $617.15 million, up 47.8% from the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.1% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that may lead to price appreciation [5]. Group 4: Industry Context - NFG operates within the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, where it competes with companies like Tidewater (TDW) [5]. - Tidewater's stock closed 3.4% lower in the last trading session, contrasting with NFG's performance [5].