Novavax (NVAX) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future. Revisions to Earnings Estimates For the current quarter, Novavax is expected to post earnings of $1.13 per share, indicating a change of +94.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +544.9% over the last 30 days. With an impressive externally audited track record, our prop ...

Novavax's JN.1 COVID-19 vaccine is active against current circulating strains, including KP.2 and KP.3 Novavax intends to have its vaccine in unit-dose vials available for distribution in the European Union for immediate release post-approval. Novavax has also filed with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and is working with other regulatory authorities globally on authorization or approval of its JN.1 COVID-19 vaccine. When added to vaccines, Novavax's patented saponin-based Matrix-M adjuvant enha ...

Heading into today, shares of the vaccine maker had lost 12.2% over the past month, lagging the Medical sector's gain of 0.03% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.59% in that time. Our research reveals that these estimate alterations are directly linked with the stock price performance in the near future. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system. Novavax (NVAX) closed the most recent trading d ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for short-squeeze stocks to deliver significant returns, particularly in the context of recent market trends and specific companies that may benefit from positive news and high short interest. Group 1: Short-Squeeze Stocks - Novavax (NVAX) experienced a dramatic increase in stock price from $3.5 to $23.86 following positive news, highlighting the volatility and potential of short-squeeze stocks [1] - The upcoming meme stock frenzy is expected to bring attention back to short-squeeze stocks, where even a single positive development can lead to substantial stock price surges [2] Group 2: EVgo (EVGO) - EVgo has seen a 50% correction in the last year, yet high short interest presents an opportunity for accumulation, supported by positive business catalysts [4] - For Q1 2024, EVgo reported a revenue increase of 118% year-on-year to $55.2 million, with the addition of 250 new operating stalls, indicating strong growth potential [5] - The company reported an EBITDA loss of $7.2 million for Q1 2024, a significant improvement from $20.1 million in Q1 2023, suggesting a trend towards narrowing losses and a path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2025 [6] Group 3: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) - Aurora Cannabis is positioned for a potential breakout rally due to a favorable regulatory environment, including Germany's legalization of cannabis and potential reclassification in the U.S. [7][8] - The company operates in 15 global cannabis markets and has shown healthy growth in its medicinal cannabis business, with expectations for continued strong growth [8] - Aurora has reported positive adjusted EBITDA for five consecutive quarters and reaffirmed guidance for positive free cash flow, enhancing its financial flexibility for future investments [9] Group 4: Beyond Meat (BYND) - Beyond Meat has a high short interest of nearly 40% and has seen a 47% decline in stock price over the past year, reflecting investor concerns about growth [10] - For Q1 2024, Beyond Meat reported an 18% year-on-year revenue decline to $75.6 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $32.9 million, indicating ongoing struggles [11] - The company is working to strengthen its balance sheet and achieve profitability, with new product launches like Beyond IV aimed at revitalizing growth [12]

Subject to necessary permissions from the FDA and CDC, Novavax intends to market this updated COVID-19 vaccine in pre-filled syringes by mid-August. If authorized/approved, it will be the only protein-based nonmRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. The FDA's prior advice was in line with the recommendation issued by a World Health Organization (WHO) advisory committee on Apr 26. However, the FDA pointed out that post the WHO recommendation, another subvariant named KP.2 has become the dominant strain i ...

Novavax's updated JN.1 COVID-19 vaccine is active against current circulating strains, including KP.2 and KP.3 Novavax's JN.1 COVID-19 vaccine would be the only protein-based option available in the U.S. Novavax's filing is aligned with FDA, EMA and WHO global recommendations on vaccine composition Novavax intends to have its vaccine in pre-filled syringes available in the U.S. for immediate release postauthorization and following recommendation by the U.S. CDC Novavax's JN.1 vaccine has demonstrated broad ...

Core Viewpoint - Novavax's stock has significantly outperformed the market, returning +104.6% over the past month compared to the S&P 500's +3.3% [1] Earnings Estimates Revisions - The consensus earnings estimate for Novavax is $0.37 for the current fiscal year, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +106.8% and a change of +144.5% over the last 30 days [2] - For the current quarter, Novavax is expected to report earnings of $1.13 per share, indicating a +94.8% change from the same quarter last year, with the consensus estimate changing by +241.6% in the last 30 days [11] - The consensus earnings estimate for the next fiscal year is $0.42, showing a +15.6% change year-over-year, but has seen a drastic change of -840% over the past month [12] Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $429.83 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +1.3% [15] - For the current fiscal year, the sales estimate is $999.14 million, reflecting a +1.6% change, while the next fiscal year's estimate is $553.03 million, indicating a -44.7% change [15] - Last reported revenues were $93.86 million, representing a +16% year-over-year change, with an EPS of -$1.05 compared to -$3.41 a year ago [16] Valuation - Novavax is graded D in terms of valuation, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [8] - The Zacks Value Style Score system helps assess whether Novavax is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued [18] - The Zacks Rank for Novavax is 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3][19] Performance History - Over the last four quarters, Novavax has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [20]

Regulatory and Supply Strategy - The FDA accepted the company's BLA filing and worked on a dual approach strategy, including an EUA pathway to expedite vaccine distribution for the JN 1 strain and prefilled syringe format, crucial for capturing 40-50% of the market opportunity in the first 3-4 weeks of the season [3] - The company anticipates ample supply for the US market, with JN 1 strain production on track and prefilled syringes expected to be ready by August, positioning the company for a stronger performance this season [31] - The company made a strategic decision with the FDA to pursue the EUA pathway alongside the BLA filing, with a PDUFA date set for April next year, aiming to align with the normal strain change submission cycle [59] Sanofi Partnership and Deal Structure - The Sanofi partnership was triggered by the company's three-pillar strategy, focusing on proving the technology, generating revenue, and reducing liabilities, which stabilized the company and enabled business development discussions [7] - The deal with Sanofi includes a $500 million upfront payment, a 5% equity investment, and $700 million in near and mid-term milestones, with additional potential value from ongoing royalties and milestones for new vaccines developed using the company's Matrix-M technology [8] - The partnership allows Sanofi to combine the company's COVID vaccine with their flu vaccines, creating combination products, with the company eligible for milestones and ongoing royalties for each new vaccine developed using Matrix-M [10][11] Market and Commercialization Strategy - The company is focusing on retail access for vaccine distribution, with 90% of COVID vaccine distribution going through retail channels, and is pleased with the traction on contracts and prefilled syringe adoption [5] - The company is preparing for the upcoming season with a strong position in the US and EU markets, leveraging the JN 1 strain and prefilled syringes, and expects to be ready for distribution by August [31] - The company remains an independent entity with its own pipeline, including two Phase 3 programs for a combination flu-COVID vaccine and a standalone flu vaccine, with data expected by next year [12] Financial and Operational Improvements - The company has significantly improved its financial health by reducing current liabilities by $1 5-2 billion and cutting OpEx by over $1 billion in the last 15 months, strengthening the balance sheet and enabling the Sanofi partnership [35] - The company plans to further reduce R&D and SG&A expenses to below $500 million next year, with a portion expected to be reimbursed, maintaining a lean and efficient operational structure [23] - The Sanofi deal provides the company with optionality and multiple layers of value, including milestones, royalties, and the ability to reduce costs and infrastructure, positioning the company for future growth and value creation [28][61] Pipeline and Future Opportunities - The company is advancing its late-stage pipeline, including a combination flu-COVID vaccine and a standalone flu vaccine, with Phase 3 data expected by next year and plans to expand its early-stage pipeline [12][41] - The company is exploring additional business development opportunities, including out-licensing its Matrix-M technology to other vaccine manufacturers, with the potential to lower COGS and improve immunogenicity [62] - The company is confident in its Phase 3 programs, with Phase 2 data supporting the approval pathway, and expects to file for both the combination flu-COVID vaccine and the standalone flu vaccine in the second half of next year [64]

Core Viewpoint - Novavax's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a recent surge of over 300% year-to-date, driven by market reactions to its upcoming vaccine updates and high short interest among investors [1][2][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Novavax shares jumped 18% on June 5 and another 20% in pre-market trading, opening at $24.10 per share, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $3.6 billion based on 2023 revenue of $656 million [1][2]. - The stock had previously fallen below $10 in 2023 after losing the race to deliver vaccines compared to competitors Pfizer and Moderna [3]. - The stock is currently trading significantly above its fundamental value, even after recent positive news [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Short Interest - Over 36% of Novavax shares are currently held short, with more than half of these trades occurring off listed exchanges, indicating a bearish sentiment among some investors [6]. - The sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits has turned bullish, with traders viewing the high short interest as a potential for further stock price increases, although some caution against quick profit-taking [12]. Group 3: Vaccine Development and Regulatory Updates - The FDA is updating recommendations for new Covid-19 vaccines, which has contributed to Novavax's recent stock surge, as the agency aims for vaccines to cover the JN.1 lineage [8]. - Novavax announced plans to deliver an updated Covid-19 vaccine in September, which will not utilize mRNA technology, differentiating it from competitors [10].

Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) is on a recovery trek after collapsing in late 2021. Recently, management said that its latest vaccine version addressing newer Covid-19 subvariants is more effective than older injections. According to a Reuters report, vaccine makers presented animal study data which "showed their 2024-25 shots targeting the JN.1 variant that was dominant earlier this year could neutralize newer subvariants such as KP.2 much better than the older shots." Novavax and other vaccine developers, includin ...