Core Viewpoint - Novavax is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, with expectations of a loss of 67 cents per share and sales estimated at $90.72 million, reflecting a challenging market environment for its COVID-19 vaccine due to competition from mRNA-based vaccines [1][2][3]. Group 1: Upcoming Earnings and Sales Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novavax's product sales is pegged at $82 million for the upcoming quarter, indicating minimal vaccine sales [3]. - In the last reported quarter, Novavax's earnings exceeded estimates by 12.64% [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Novavax's updated protein-based COVID-19 vaccine received FDA authorization later than mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, which may have impacted its market performance [2]. - The mRNA vaccines are designed to target the more advanced KP.2 strain, while Novavax's vaccine targets the JN.1 strain, potentially limiting its competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Research and Development Updates - Novavax has initiated a phase III study for its experimental COVID-19-influenza combination vaccine and standalone influenza vaccine, which will compare their immunogenicity and safety [4]. - The company is also expected to provide updates on its technology transfer to Sanofi, which will take over commercial responsibilities for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine starting January 1, 2025 [5]. Group 4: Pipeline and Future Opportunities - Novavax is advancing its preclinical pipeline, focusing on vaccines for RSV and H5N1 bird flu, and exploring new opportunities in diseases like varicella-zoster virus and Clostridium difficile colitis [6]. - The company plans to expand into oncology, indicating a broader strategic focus beyond COVID-19 [6]. Group 5: Earnings Surprise History - Novavax has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 56.95% [7]. - Year-to-date, Novavax's shares have increased by 3%, compared to a 5% growth in the industry [7]. Group 6: Earnings Prediction Model - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for Novavax, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [9].

Company Performance - Novavax (NVAX) closed at $8.19, reflecting a +0.74% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.67% [1] - Over the past month, Novavax shares have decreased by 12.72%, underperforming the Medical sector's gain of 4.09% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.07% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Novavax is anticipated, with projected earnings per share (EPS) at -$0.67, indicating a 53.47% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $90.72 million, representing a 68.86% decline compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Novavax indicate a dynamic business outlook, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the company's future performance [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Novavax at 2 (Buy) [5] Valuation Metrics - Novavax has a Forward P/E ratio of 1897.01, significantly higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 22.99, indicating a premium valuation [6] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 61.99, compared to the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry's average PEG ratio of 1.51 [7] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, part of the Medical sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 68, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Novavax (NVAX) shares have increased by 3.5% recently, closing at $8.81, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' mean price target of $16, suggesting an 81.6% increase from the current price [1] Price Targets and Estimates - The mean estimate consists of six short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $6.93, where the lowest estimate is $9 (2.2% increase) and the highest is $25 (183.8% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets indicates strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [7] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts show increasing optimism about Novavax's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions, which correlates with potential stock price increases [9] - Over the past 30 days, one earnings estimate has increased, leading to a Zacks Consensus Estimate rise of 87.5% [10] Zacks Rank - Novavax holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [11] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are a common metric, they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions due to historical inaccuracies in predicting actual stock movements [5][8]

Company Performance - Novavax (NVAX) closed at $8.55, showing a +0.53% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.83% [1] - Over the past month, Novavax shares have decreased by 5.5%, while the Medical sector and S&P 500 have lost 3.48% and 3.31%, respectively [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report for Novavax is expected to show an EPS of -$0.67, which represents a 53.47% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $90.72 million, indicating a significant decline of 68.86% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Novavax are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, provides actionable ratings for investors [4] Zacks Rank and Industry Performance - The Zacks Rank system ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), with 1 stocks historically yielding an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Novavax currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate having increased by 87.5% over the last 30 days [5] - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, part of the Medical sector, ranks in the top 24% of all industries, indicating strong performance potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Novavax (NVAX) shares experienced a significant increase of 10.9% in the last trading session, closing at $10.82, driven by heightened investor interest in vaccines targeting the H5N1 virus following the first human death from bird flu reported in the U.S. [1][2] Company Summary - Novavax is currently developing a vaccine for the H5N1 virus, which has garnered attention after a recent human fatality linked to bird flu in the U.S. [2] - The company is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.67 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 53.5%, while revenues are projected to be $90.72 million, down 68.9% from the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Novavax has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4]. Industry Context - Novavax operates within the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes other companies like Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) [4]. - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has a consensus EPS estimate of -$0.71 for its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of 45.8%, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5].

Core Viewpoint - Novavax has made significant progress in its partnership with Sanofi, achieving a $50 million milestone payment related to its COVID-19 vaccine, which is part of a broader corporate growth strategy that includes potential future milestones and ongoing royalties [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership and Milestones - Novavax achieved its first milestone payment of $50 million from Sanofi, linked to the Phase 2/3 clinical trial for its COVID-19 vaccine in children [2][3]. - The agreement with Sanofi includes potential additional milestones of up to $300 million for the COVID-19 vaccine and up to $350 million for combination products that include Novavax's vaccine [3]. - Novavax is also eligible for up to $200 million for the first four products developed by Sanofi using its Matrix-M adjuvant, with ongoing royalties for all products utilizing Matrix-M [3]. Group 2: Clinical Trials and Regulatory Designation - Sanofi has received U.S. FDA Fast Track designation for two combination vaccine candidates that include Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine, which are currently in Phase 1/2 clinical trials [3]. - The combination vaccines aim to prevent both influenza and COVID-19, indicating a strategic move towards integrated vaccine solutions [1][3]. Group 3: Corporate Growth Strategy - Novavax's corporate growth strategy focuses on pursuing additional partnerships for its late-stage and early-stage R&D assets, as well as its Matrix-M adjuvant [4]. - The company aims to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce costs through strategic collaborations and asset sales, such as the planned sale of its Czech Republic manufacturing site [3].

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Novavax (NVAX) . Shares have added about 13.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Novavax due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers. Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat EstimatesNovavax incurred a t ...

Novavax (NVAX) announced that it has started dosing participants in the phase III study evaluating its experimental COVID-19-influenza combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates.The study will compare the immunogenicity and safety of the CIC vaccine with separate administrations of Novavax’s currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine and a licensed seasonal influenza vaccine. Management will also assess the immunogenicity and safety of its standalone influenza vaccine.Both experimental vaccin ...

Many companies that performed well in the early pandemic years have since fallen off the radar or at least have seen their shares drop substantially during the past three years. Telemedicine Teladoc Health (TDOC 0.64%) and vaccine maker Novavax (NVAX -1.31%) belong in this group: Both have significantly lagged behind the market since 2021. However, these healthcare specialists are actively trying to return to their outperforming ways. If they succeed, they will produce outsize returns for investors who purc ...

Agreement provides significant, non-dilutive capital to Novavax, further enabling the Company to advance its corporate growth strategy of driving value from its pipeline assets and proven technology platform Provides Novavax with $190 million cash payment in 2024 and additional $10 million in 2025, and annual operating cost reductions of approximately $80 millionGAITHERSBURG, Md., Dec. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a global company advancing protein-based vaccines with its Matrix-M™ ...