Wedgewood Partners, an investment management company, released its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter. The firm anticipates stronger market volatility in the coming years and has moderated its enthusiasm. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Wedgewood Composite returned -1.8% (net) in the fourth quarter compared to the S&P 500’s 2.7%, the Russell 1000 Growth Index’s 1.1%, and the Russell 1000 Value Index’s 3.8% returns. YTD, the Composite gained 4.3% compared to 17.9%, 18.6%, and 15.9% returns ...

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) is included among the 15 Dividend Growth Stocks with the Highest Growth Rates. Evercore ISI Raises Old Dominion (ODFL) Target but Warns Transport Optimism is Priced In Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash On January 13, Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell raised his price target on Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) to $150 from $139, while keeping an In Line rating on the stock. He said that a lot of the optimism around EPS growth over the next t ...

Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI set a price target of $150 for NASDAQ:ODFL, indicating a potential overvaluation based on the current trading price.The stock has seen a significant rebound, climbing about 38% since hitting a 52-week low, showcasing investor optimism.With a market capitalization of approximately $36.3 billion and active trading volume, ODFL remains a key player in the logistics sector.Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) is a prominent player in the less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping ...

Key Points Old Dominion's stock has rebounded about 38% since a late-November low. The business is still operating well even as shipping demand remains soft. The stock is no longer the bargain it was. 10 stocks we like better than Old Dominion Freight Line › After bottoming in late November of last year, shares of trucking and freight specialist Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) have staged a sharp rebound. The stock hit a 52-week low around $126 and has since climbed back to about $173 -- ...

Core Insights - Old Dominion Freight Line's (ODFL) shares have declined by 4.2% over the past year, underperforming the industry's decline of 1.4% [4][8] Company Performance - The downturn in freight market demand significantly impacted ODFL's third-quarter performance, resulting in declines in both revenues and earnings per diluted share [4] - ODFL experienced a 9% drop in LTL tons per day, attributed to a 7.9% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.2% reduction in LTL weight per shipment, indicating broad-based weakness in shipping activity [4][8] - Despite an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, pricing gains were insufficient to offset the sharp decline in volumes, leading to reduced network utilization and pressured financial results [5] Macroeconomic Environment - ODFL operates in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by economic uncertainty, evolving tariff policies, and heightened geopolitical tensions, which are increasing operational and compliance risks [6] - These conditions are causing companies to delay investments and reassess forecasts, adding uncertainty to ODFL's near-term prospects [6] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ODFL's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 0.93% over the past 60 days, now pegged at $1.06 per share [7] - The estimate for 2026 earnings is set at $5.24 per share, reflecting a 4.4% decline over the past 60 days [7] Industry Context - ODFL belongs to an industry currently ranked 208 out of 244 by Zacks, placing it in the bottom 15% of Zacks Industries, which may negatively impact its stock performance [9] - The performance of the industry group is crucial, as studies indicate that 50% of a stock's price movement is directly related to its industry performance [9]

Group 1 - The article promotes iREIT on Alpha, highlighting its comprehensive research offerings that include various investment vehicles such as REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1] - It mentions that there are 438 testimonials, with most being 5-star ratings, indicating a high level of customer satisfaction [1] Group 2 - Leo Nelissen is identified as a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist, emphasizing his focus on dividend growth and high-quality compounders [2] - The article notes that Nelissen combines macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify businesses with strong cash-flow potential [2] - It also mentions that he publishes deeper-dive research and actionable investment ideas for long-term investors on Main Street Alpha [2]

Company Overview - Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) has a market cap of $33.3 billion and is a leading North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national freight transportation services through a vast network of service centers across the U.S. and strategic alliances in North America [1] - The company combines LTL freight hauling with expedited transportation and value-added logistics services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting [1] - Founded in 1934 and headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina, ODFL operates a large fleet of tractors and trailers serving a diverse base of commercial customers [1] Upcoming Earnings Report - ODFL is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on February 4, with analysts expecting a non-GAAP profit of $1.06 per share, which represents a 13.8% decrease from $1.23 per share reported in the same quarter last year [2] - The company has exceeded earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters, missing forecasts in one quarter [2] Future Earnings Projections - For FY2025, ODFL is projected to deliver a non-GAAP EPS of $4.81, down 12.2% from $5.48 in fiscal 2024 [3] - In fiscal 2026, ODFL's earnings are expected to increase by 9.4% year over year to $5.26 per share [3] Stock Performance - ODFL stock has declined by 26% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 17.8%, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which gained 14.7% during the same period [4] Analyst Upgrade - On December 1, shares of ODFL rose by 5.7% after BMO Capital upgraded the stock to "Outperform," citing the company's strong market position, resilient service quality, and sustained pricing power despite a broader freight industry slowdown [5] - The price target was slightly trimmed to $170, reflecting confidence that carriers focused on smaller shipments typically rebound earlier in economic recoveries, with ODFL's exposure to industrial freight seen as an added tailwind as conditions improve [5]

Core Viewpoint - Old Dominion Freight Line is experiencing a decline in earnings relative to revenue due to increased operating expenses and a prolonged slump in freight volumes, leading to questions about the timing of a potential recovery in the freight market [1][3][13]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Old Dominion's total revenue decreased to approximately $1.41 billion, a decline of 4.3% year over year, with net income and diluted earnings per share falling by 10.5% to $1.28 [2]. - The company's operating ratio rose to 74.3% from 72.7% a year earlier, attributed to "deleveraging" as costs did not decrease in line with falling volumes [1]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was about $437.5 million, totaling around $1.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025 [9]. Market Position and Strategy - Old Dominion is a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, known for exceptional service and disciplined pricing, which has helped it gain market share during economic booms [4][3]. - The company maintains excess capacity during downturns to quickly capitalize on market share when volumes recover, although this strategy has led to significant negative impacts during the current freight recession [3][4]. Volume and Pricing Trends - LTL tons per day fell by 9% in Q3, reflecting a 7.9% decline in shipments per day and a 1.2% decline in weight per shipment, while LTL revenue per hundredweight (excluding fuel surcharges) increased by 4.7% [5]. - A November 2025 update indicated a continued decline in revenue per day by 4.4% year over year, driven by a 10% drop in LTL tons shipped per day [6]. Capital Returns and Investments - Over the first nine months of 2025, Old Dominion returned approximately $782.6 million to shareholders, including $605.4 million through share repurchases and $177.2 million in dividends [10]. - The company plans to invest roughly $450 million in capital expenditures for service center expansion, equipment, and technology in 2025 [9]. Valuation and Investor Sentiment - Old Dominion shares currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, reflecting investor confidence in a rebound and the company's ability to continue compounding over time [11]. - Despite the stock's recent pullback, it is not considered an obvious bargain, and investors are advised to monitor the freight market closely [14].

Core Viewpoint - Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is currently facing multiple challenges that make it an unattractive investment option [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ODFL's fourth quarter of 2025 earnings has decreased by 10.2% over the past 90 days, while the current year's earnings estimate has been revised downward by 1.2% in the same timeframe, indicating a lack of confidence from brokers [2] - For the fourth quarter of 2025, ODFL's earnings are expected to decline by 13.82% year over year, and for the full year 2025, a decline of 12.23% year over year is anticipated [7] Price Performance - ODFL's shares have lost 8.4% over the past six months, contrasting with a 2.6% growth in the transportation-truck industry [4][6] Operational Challenges - The company is experiencing weak freight demand and ongoing supply chain issues, which have negatively impacted shipment volumes and rates, leading to a deterioration in the operating ratio from 72% in 2023 to 73.4% in 2024 despite cost-cutting efforts [8] - The trucking industry, including ODFL, is facing a persistent driver shortage, complicating recruitment as older drivers retire and younger generations show less interest in low-paying jobs [9] Industry Context - ODFL operates within an industry that has a Zacks Industry Rank of 194 out of 248 groups, placing it in the bottom 20% of Zacks industries, which suggests that the company's performance is heavily influenced by the overall industry conditions [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses a rotation thesis from Big Tech investments to cyclical value, energy, and high-quality stocks that focus on dividend income and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Focus - The emphasis is on transitioning investment strategies towards sectors that offer dividend growth opportunities, particularly in cyclical and energy stocks [1][2]. - The analysis aims to provide actionable investment ideas that align with major economic developments in supply chains and commodities [2]. Group 2: Analyst Background - Leo Nelissen is identified as an analyst specializing in economic developments related to supply chains, infrastructure, and commodities, contributing to the iREIT®+HOYA Capital team [2].